2017-18 quick observations

[Crow]

Before tonight the top 6 players on 3 pointers made were evenly split between GSW and HOU.

The Grizzlies starting lineup is doing poorly. Their biggest minute bench unit is doing great.

[Crow]

Fix Cavs? More Shumpert, less Wade. What else? Fire Lue? Absolutely nothing is sorking in lineups. Waiting 2 weeks probably makes sense.

[Crow]

I recall hearing DeRozan was working hard on his 3pt game this summer. Not seeing any payoff, so far.

[Crow]

Mavs, worst record in league and good chance to continue. Trade anybody and as many as possible.

[Crow]

Kings, worst SRS. Instead of helping team have chance at playoffs, the vets appear likely to part of several more years of bad results. Vlade should have no more than 18 months to show improvement off his disaster. I'd can him tomorrow. The coach has done little right either (1 top 10 factor, 3 meh, 4 bottom of barrell) but I'd like to see the GM go first this time.

[Crow]

3pt fg% has improved from early low.

Average FTA/ game is at 3rd lowest rate ever. Down a bit from last season when with pace increase.

OR / gm under 10. Never been that low for a season. Even lower when considering pace.

TO / gm at a 20 year high, aided by pace increase.

[Mike G]

Turnovers always go down as the season progresses.
Also it seems that rookies are playing a lot, compared to recent seasons.
In fact, they've played 9.2% of all minutes; but they have 9.0% of the TO.

[Crow]

Worst on defensive efficiency (before today and probably still)? Cavs.

[Crow]

BRef indicates listed weights peaked at 223 and has fallen a pound per year for 4 years.

Average age has never been below 26 or above 28. It has been pretty stable recently and is at 26.7 yrs.

[Crow]

Rockets taking about 11 more 3 pt attempts per game than #2 Warriors. Only 21st on 3pt fg% though. Taking 12 less 2pt attempts per game than 2nd lowest. Hitting league best on these at almost 59%. Slightly below average on attempts within 3 feet. Very very low on mid range attempts, the lowest on all distance except 3-10 feet where they are still low. But long 2s? They've cut that to just 3% of total fgas. Kings are highest on this, at 6 times as much.

[Crow]

Saw a number of observers say they like Jamal Murray in last year. Overall he has done little. Poor shooting and not much else.

Parsons has recovered, to the level of a good role player. Will they try to trade him? Is anyone game for that?

Giannis still slightly negative in his time on court... according to NBA.com. BRef says they will look into it but they still have different data.

[Crow]

Ball doing pretty well on most things outside horrendous shooting from everywhere. Don't know enough about the defense til RPM comes out.

[Mike G]

Lonzo Ball is one of a select few to avg >28 min with Usg% >18 and Off-Rtg <88 in the last 10 seasons.

Code: Select all

player     yr    Usg%  ORtg   PER   WS/48    BPM
Mudiay    2016   25.7   88    9.9   -.049   -4.3
Bradley   2013   18.8   90    8.8    .012   -2.7
Winslow   2017   19.8   88    8.2   -.009   -2.8
Ball      2018   18.7   84    8.7   -.016   -1.6
Rose      2014   31.5   88    9.7   -.036   -5.1
D Smith   2018   29.4   88   11.2   -.074   -4.3
Kobe      2014   28.7   84   10.7   -.097   -5.9

His DWS and DBPM are nice anyway.
http://bkref.com/tiny/enRrk

[Crow]

Theory: to beat Warriors it would be great for a team to be elite on shot / scoring efficiency AND either limiting opponent 3pt attempts and / or opp. 3 pt. fg%. It there a team that does both? Wizards have a top 10 offense and are 11th on opp. 3pt rate. That's almost certainly not enough. No one else has an elite dual threat. This is an attack their strengths strategy. Since it does not appear that this will work, lets check other approaches attacking their weaknesses.

The three Warrior weakness factors are getting to line, turnovers and defensive rebounds. Who is top 10 on limiting fouls, forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding? The Spurs are top 10 on all 3. Rockets 2. I don't think anybody else has more than 1. Is this enough for the Spurs? Probably not. If they also had an elite strength attacking a Warrior strength, then you might be good enough. But they currently don't and it is not close. But I almost forgot Kawhi. So, to be revisited. The Rockets have the scoring efficiency to go along with 2 weakness attacks. They might be able to cut down on opponent 3pt fga a little more. That might be enough.

The Wiz also force turnovers and have a strong starting lineup. They might be the semi-legit challenger in the East.

A team could conceivably WIN their way rather than thru specifically beating the Warriors at their strongest or weakest factors. But I doubt it. It would take massive total force to be able to pretty much ignore matchup considerations.

[Crow]

Will I Thomas help the Cavs? Probably. But "the problem" is almost entirely defense. So...