2017-18 quick observations

[Crow]

BRef's playoffs probabilities give 87% chance of winning title to 3 teams: Warriors, Rockets... and Raptors. By this exercise, Cavs, Spurs and Celtics just get small scrap chances.

One could make case for a 5-6 team contender group or for an even more concentrated 2 team top tier.

[Crow]

Dirk has hit 49% of his 3 point shots over last 10 games. His countryman Kleber has been shooting well too. Barnes & Matthews have been better, but not enough to change tiers.

M Gasol has 2nd worst raw plus minus on the court for Griz and worst in last 10 games.

After some talk about summertime work on his 3 point shot, it looks like DeRozan is abandoning it. Attempts down almost 50% from a fairly modest rate to begin with. 3pt fg% at 7% for last 10 games.

Redick's raw plus minus has gone from about plus 4 per game early to -7 in last 10 games. I haven't investigated why. Perhaps a Sixers observer has some insight?

[Mike G]

After some talk about summertime work on his 3 point shot, it looks like DeRozan is abandoning it. Attempts down almost 50% from a fairly modest rate to begin with. 3pt fg% at 7% for last 10 games.

He'd only attempted 16 in those 10 games, and in the last 2 he's hit 9/13
This might be the best way to become a 3-pt shooter -- if you don't feel it, don't take it.
He's now at a career high 0.9 makes per game, and his eFG% is .056 above his career %, up .042 over last year.
Combined with a career high .468 FTr, his TS% is suddenly great for the shots he takes. Only LeBron, Harden, Giannis, Kyrie, and Oladipo are getting 35 pts/100 poss with a better TS% (.587)

Only 17 players have a season of 35 pts/100 with ORtg>117 and DRtg<108. Jordan did it 9 times.
http://bkref.com/tiny/5xqZb

[Crow]

Parsons back... to dead average impact by PER, WS/48, BPM and just modestly better by RPM. Not as embarrassing but still a very unwise move that failed to pay off.

[shadow]

Vanilla RAPM updated through 12/25:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

[Crow]

Anunoby reaches top spot in 2.5 months. What is the reasonable projection for future from here, given small sample size, newness, etc.?

[shadow]

I wouldn't put Anunoby's ceiling higher than a solid 3 &D player right now. He has below average usage and would obviously not likely maintain his ORAPM if asked to take on a larger role.

[Crow]

OG's current RPM is well above all but a couple 3&D guys. Too early to say he'll maintain it but if he does he is above solid.


Rubio worse than ever on overall metrics. RPM down 3 from last season and negative for first time in quite awhile.

[Crow]

Looking at 82games' Win-Loss profiles, Golden State and Houston lose at a modest rate to good defenses, more than to good offenses. San Antonio is similar against good defenses but terrible against good offenses. TWolves are a tier lower and have significant issues against both.

[shadow]

I'm honestly a bit surprised OG ranks 27th overall in RPM, considering his BPM only ranks about 80th among those who play regular minutes. BPM usually is a decent proxy for the RPM box score prior and at this point in the season I would think the box score prior would carry more weight than the RAPM component. I also thought there's an age component in the RPM prior which usually drags rookies down a bit, so that makes it even more surprising.

[tarrazu]

Last night's line is pretty good example:
http://stats.nba.com/game/0021700546/

Didn't take a field goal attempt, and had a team high +/-. His single season RAPM is top 10 at last check.

[Rd11490]

He is getting the benefit of some unsustainable shooting while he is on the court. Here is how the Raptors are shooting with him on the court and how teams are shooting against them while he is on the court.

https://i.imgur.com/Pc6Gv7x.png

PPS: Points Per Shot
ePPS: Points Per Shot if every player shot their career average from that zone.

[Crow]

He probably doesn't get this same boost long term but it is a good start and he might add some more real impact over time.

[Crow]

Popovich: ‘I never look at the plus-minus. To me, that’s all (baloney)'

You can save this statement several ways with followup. I don't know if it was given.

But as a stand alone statement it is not particularly helpful or flattering.

With plus minus being scoreboard.

Leonard with worst raw plus minus for season for top 12 guys on team. RPM estimate so far just a slight tick above neutral. Gasol and Green with worst raw plus minus recently. Sure there is noise. Sure it is easier not to talk about it. Sure the bigger picture is more important. But there is probably stuff worth studying a bit, checking, tweaking. Other people though. Not Pop. Or at least not Pop on record. He has a snarl to maintain.

[Crow]

Michael Malone comments on 'some asinine fan all-star votes'. Certainly exist. Alongside highly questionable media and player votes.

All-Star has long been one of the worst run, worst looking pieces of NBA world. Coaches might not have that much input but they certainly completely failed to foster anything above a halfass walkthru in recent times.