Rookies of 2017-18

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:55 pm

At 49% of the season, rookies have stalled out a bit; headed to 84.6 eWins now.

Code: Select all

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.0   Ben Simmons  Phl   36  .517   16.1   8.6   8.1   2.0   4.2   .9   1.54
6.5   D Mitchell   Uta   31  .540   22.1   4.0   4.1   1.8   2.9   .5   1.30
6.1   Jayson Tatum Bos   31  .614   18.3   6.6   1.7   1.2   1.5  1.0   1.16
5.6   L Markkanen  Chi   30  .543   17.4   9.4   1.5    .6   1.7   .6   1.19
5.1   Kyle Kuzma   LAL   31  .555   18.1   7.0   1.9    .6   2.3   .5    .98

4.6   Lonzo Ball   LAL   34  .425    9.5   7.6   7.3   1.6   3.1  1.0    .94
4.3   Dennis Smith Dal   28  .468   17.8   5.7   6.0   1.2   3.7   .3   1.12
4.1   John Collins Atl   22  .607   16.1  11.0   1.6   1.1   2.2  1.7   1.29
2.9   Jordan Bell  GSW   15  .655   12.1  10.0   5.1   1.8   2.4  2.7   1.37
2.9   Mike James   Phx   21  .469   15.9   4.7   6.1   1.5   2.6   .4   1.07

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.6   Bam Adebayo  Mia   19  .612   13.1   9.9   1.9   1.1   1.7  1.3   1.02
2.6  Bg Bogdanovic Sac   26  .574   14.9   3.6   3.3   1.3   2.2   .4    .64
2.0   De'Aaron Fox Sac   26  .461   13.5   4.1   4.8   1.3   3.4   .3    .55
2.0   Daniel Theis Bos   13  .576   13.0  10.8   1.6   1.1   2.7  1.8    .93
1.9   Maxi Kleber  Dal   19  .577   11.6   7.2   1.2    .6    .7  1.3    .69

1.6   Josh Jackson Phx   22  .442   13.3   5.9   1.9   1.6   2.9   .5    .45
1.4   Frank Mason  Sac   19  .475   13.4   4.1   4.5   1.0   2.4   .3    .62
1.4  Jarrett Allen Brk   17  .567   11.4   8.4    .8   1.0   1.6  1.8    .64
1.4   T Cavanaugh  Atl   15  .608   11.9   8.4   2.0    .8    .9   .3    .78
1.2   M Teodosic   LAC   24  .466   12.4   5.1   8.4    .6   3.4   .4    .90

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.2   OG Anunoby   Tor   21  .586   11.2   4.1   1.6   1.6   1.2   .1    .32
1.1   Luke Kennard Det   17  .536   12.5   3.7   2.3   1.5   1.7   .3    .42
1.0   Jawun Evans  LAC   18  .417   10.2   3.9   4.4   1.8   2.0   .2    .42
1.0   Josh Hart    LAL   19  .536    9.3   5.7   1.7   1.4   1.0   .4    .35
0.9   F Ntilikina  NYK   21  .430    8.6   3.8   5.2   2.0   2.9   .3    .27
0.9  Dillon Brooks Mem   27  .544   10.7   4.1   1.5   1.0   1.5   .5    .19

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:50 pm

Simmons' A/TO dipped to about 1.4/ 1 over last 10 (as of a day or two ago).

It is still early but Ntilikina is pretty low. And I am not surprised.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:07 pm

Crow wrote:It is still early but Ntilikina is pretty low. And I am not surprised.
He was drafted at #8 by the Knicks. He's just 25th in the list above -- and much worse in WS and VORP.
What did you know that suggested he was taken too early?

Simmons' rates have dropped almost continuously after his fast start, according to previous posts here. Across the board, really.

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:22 pm

His nothing special Euro stats and the usual top Euro overhype...

jgoldstein34
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by jgoldstein34 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:39 pm

He rates out relatively better using PIPM or RPM. There's a decent number of other high drafted rookies below him.

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:14 pm

RPM estimates has him at about -2.3. 79th among PGs overall. 92nd of 97 on ORPM. MCW, Demetrius Jackson, Isaiah Taylor for neighbors. Just a bit above replacement level. He'll probably develop but into above average player capable of leading offense? We'll see. Right now team offense with him on is equivalent to a bottom 25% percentile team on average. One could probably get that level of current team performance with some undrafted g-leaguers out of NCAA or some out of work vet journeymen.

Terrible shooting, terrible turnover rate.

That 5 pts, 1.5 assist in almost 20 min/g and 1.5 A/TO in France didn't scream ready or top talent to me.

In this case, his January was overall worse than his November and October and December weren't much either. In January he is shooting 26% on raw fg% with highest yet turnovers per minute.

36th on ws/48 for rookies who've played (in large part because of the very weak shooting). 19th on BPM (with BPM highly rewarding assists and ast /reb versatility).

What kinda of numbers did Pelton, you or others project for him as a rookie?

Adam Fromal projected 8.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.4 blocks. Compared to now that was 60% high on points and 100% high on blocks. Rebs & asts fairly close. 538 projected him at replacement level, pegged as -2. Carmelo system sees him growing into about an average player in years 4-6 but it is a really speculative methodology for internationals.

jgoldstein34
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:13 am

I projected him at -2.4 points per 100 possessions which is just around where he is (I have him at -1.7 so far, RPM as you said is -2.3). BPM is at -3.0. In my database, the average 19 year old PG has a PIPM of -1.75 so he's been near average for his age at least.

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:07 am

Alright.

I recognize that I am habitually hard on young players. Probably need to study the age progression trends harder.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:28 pm

With 76% of the season played, rookies are up to 91 eWins projected for the whole season.

Code: Select all

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.4   Ben Simmons  Phl   35  .540   16.4   8.2   8.4   1.9   3.8   .9   1.63
6.8   D Mitchell   Uta   32  .539   22.3   4.2   4.1   1.7   3.0   .4   1.31
5.1   L Markkanen  Chi   30  .534   16.3   9.3   1.3    .7   1.5   .7   1.09
5.0   Jayson Tatum Bos   30  .577   16.7   6.1   1.8   1.1   1.6   .8    .97
4.7   Kyle Kuzma   LAL   29  .538   17.2   7.0   2.1    .7   2.1   .5    .96

4.4   Dennis Smith Dal   30  .467   17.0   4.9   5.9   1.3   3.6   .3   1.02
4.4   John Collins Atl   23  .616   15.1  11.4   1.5    .9   2.0  1.8   1.27
3.7   Lonzo Ball   LAL   33  .449    9.7   7.7   7.4   1.8   3.0   .9   1.02
3.5   Bam Adebayo  Mia   20  .594   13.2   9.9   2.8    .9   1.6  1.3   1.17
3.2 Bgd Bogdanovic Sac   28  .568   15.0   3.8   3.7   1.3   2.3   .3    .72

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.8  Jarrett Allen Brk   19  .622   14.4   9.7   1.3    .8   2.0  1.5   1.02
2.7   Josh Jackson Phx   24  .470   15.1   6.4   1.9   1.3   2.5   .6    .70
2.6   Daniel Theis Bos   15  .606   13.2  10.4   2.2   1.1   2.2  1.6   1.08
2.5   De'Aaron Fox Sac   28  .478   14.2   3.6   5.0   1.4   3.3   .4    .62
2.1   Jordan Bell  GSW   14  .655   11.9  10.0   5.1   1.7   2.6  2.5   1.36

1.9 Milos Teodosic LAC   25  .537   13.1   4.7   7.7    .8   3.5   .1    .86
1.8   Mike James   Phx   21  .469   15.3   4.7   6.0   1.5   2.6   .3   1.02
1.7   Josh Hart    LAL   21  .576   10.4   6.2   1.9   1.2   1.1   .4    .51
1.6   Maxi Kleber  Dal   17  .543   10.9   7.0   1.6    .8    .9  1.4    .66
1.6  Royce O'Neale Uta   15  .543   11.6   7.5   3.3   1.2   1.7   .3    .79

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.3  Dillon Brooks Mem   28  .521   11.2   4.3   1.8   1.1   1.7   .3    .27
1.3   OG Anunoby   Tor   20  .566   10.7   4.6   1.7   1.5   1.1   .3    .38
1.1   Luke Kennard Det   18  .538   11.9   4.0   2.7   1.2   1.7   .3    .43
1.0 Tyrone Wallace LAC   28  .533   12.4   4.5   3.4   1.1   1.6   .6    .64
1.0   Frank Mason  Sac   18  .472   13.0   4.1   4.6   1.1   2.5   .3    .60
Suns' Josh Jackson is one who has improved a lot since mid-season:

Code: Select all

games   mpg   eFG%   FT%   TS%   Rb%  Ast%   TO%  GmSc
1to40   21.7  .421  .566  .450   8.6   8.1  14.8   4.4
41-62   27.8  .477  .700  .508  11.1  10.6   8.2  10.5
How about the Nets' Jarrett Allen before/after Jan. 8

Code: Select all

games   mpg   eFG%   TS%   Reb%   Ast%   Usg    O/D   GmSc
1to30   16.9  .518  .560   13.7   3.6   15.2   1.03    5.3
31-54   21.6  .661  .694   16.3   8.5   19.1   1.13   10.2
O/D is ORtg/DRtg
Assists are almost universally up since last report.

Dr Positivity
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Dr Positivity » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:22 am

Mike G wrote:
Crow wrote:It is still early but Ntilikina is pretty low. And I am not surprised.
He was drafted at #8 by the Knicks. He's just 25th in the list above -- and much worse in WS and VORP.
What did you know that suggested he was taken too early?

Simmons' rates have dropped almost continuously after his fast start, according to previous posts here. Across the board, really.
Frank had barely rotation level stats at a much lower level in France, 11th in PER on his own team. So based on that alone it was easy to guess he was years away and his numbers in the NBA must start out terrible. Massive project/bust risk pick, and not even that exciting of a talent in my opinion...

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:00 pm

Here's a summary of each installment's rookie player line, to show trends.
Column 1 refers to % of season played at each installment. The lines are for the season to date, not just since previous listing.

Code: Select all

   Bam Adebayo      Mia                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   14   .526    9.0  11.1    .0   1.3   1.0  1.2    .81
30   15   .627   12.7   9.3    .3   1.9   1.8  1.5    .93
39   19   .634   13.8   9.2   1.5   1.3   1.7  1.2   1.03
49   19   .612   13.1   9.9   1.9   1.1   1.7  1.3   1.02
76   20   .594   13.2   9.9   2.8    .9   1.6  1.3   1.17

   Jarrett Allen      Brk                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
30   16   .582   10.0   7.5   1.2   1.4   1.1  2.0    .71
39   17   .569   10.2   7.7    .9   1.2   1.3  2.0    .65
49   17   .567   11.4   8.4    .8   1.0   1.6  1.8    .64
76   19   .622   14.4   9.7   1.3    .8   2.0  1.5   1.02

   OG Anunoby      Tor                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   17   .486   10.3   5.1   3.2   1.8    .6   .2    .78
23   19   .612   13.1   4.0   2.1   1.6    .6   .1    .71
30   19   .621   13.1   4.0   1.9   1.7    .9   .1    .65
39   21   .631   13.1   3.8   1.6   1.6   1.1   .1    .54
49   21   .586   11.2   4.1   1.6   1.6   1.2   .1    .32
76   20   .566   10.7   4.6   1.7   1.5   1.1   .3    .38

   Lonzo Ball      LAL                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   33   .350    8.1   6.7   6.9   1.2   2.6   .9    .78
23   33   .372    8.3   7.7   7.5   1.6   2.9  1.0    .96
30   33   .380    8.0   7.4   7.2   1.6   2.9  1.1    .85
39   34   .423    9.3   7.2   7.1   1.5   3.1  1.1    .89
49   34   .425    9.5   7.6   7.3   1.6   3.1  1.0    .94
76   33   .449    9.7   7.7   7.4   1.8   3.0   .9   1.02

   Jordan Bell      GSW                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13    9   .706   12.5   8.4   3.7   1.8   1.8  1.9   1.28
23   10   .703   10.9   9.1   4.5   1.8   2.0  2.9   1.35
30   11   .718   12.5  10.0   3.9   1.8   2.2  3.3   1.47
39   13   .725   14.2   9.2   4.9   1.8   2.5  3.0   1.55
49   15   .655   12.1  10.0   5.1   1.8   2.4  2.7   1.37

   Bog. Bogdanovic      Sac                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   24   .559   15.5   3.7   2.0   1.5   1.7   .8    .77
23   24   .517   13.9   3.4   2.4   1.5   2.1   .6    .55
30   24   .528   14.2   3.6   2.8   1.7   2.5   .4    .56
39   25   .546   14.4   3.6   2.9   1.5   2.4   .4    .59
49   26   .574   14.9   3.6   3.3   1.3   2.2   .4    .64
76   28   .568   15.0   3.8   3.7   1.3   2.3   .3    .72

   Dillon Brooks      Mem                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   30   .500   10.4   5.3   1.7   1.5   2.3   .6    .33
23   30   .534   10.8   4.8   1.6   1.3   1.8   .7    .33
39   28   .545   10.5   4.4   1.5   1.1   1.7   .5    .23
49   27   .544   10.7   4.1   1.5   1.0   1.5   .5    .19
76   28   .521   11.2   4.3   1.8   1.1   1.7   .3    .27
                           
   John Collins      Atl                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   20   .535   15.9  12.5   1.0    .8   2.1  1.8   1.32
23   23   .603   16.6  10.9   1.2    .9   2.4  1.3   1.24
30   23   .613   17.0  11.1   1.2   1.0   2.3  1.4   1.31
39   23   .634   17.3  11.5   1.4   1.1   2.3  1.5   1.39
49   22   .607   16.1  11.0   1.6   1.1   2.2  1.7   1.29
76   23   .616   15.1  11.4   1.5    .9   2.0  1.8   1.27
                           
   De'Aaron Fox      Sac                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   27   .459   15.7   4.7   5.9    .8   3.0   .1    .88
23   27   .450   13.4   4.2   5.1   1.2   2.9   .1    .65
30   26   .450   12.8   4.6   4.8   1.2   3.1   .3    .57
39   25   .446   12.6   4.2   4.6   1.3   3.3   .3    .51
49   26   .461   13.5   4.1   4.8   1.3   3.4   .3    .55
76   28   .478   14.2   3.6   5.0   1.4   3.3   .4    .62
                           
   Josh Hart      LAL                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
49   19   .536    9.3   5.7   1.7   1.4   1.0   .4    .35
76   21   .576   10.4   6.2   1.9   1.2   1.1   .4    .51
                           
   Josh Jackson      Phx                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   22   .461   12.8   4.7   1.2   2.0   2.5   .1    .40
23   22   .445   12.8   5.5   1.6   2.1   3.2   .4    .41
30   22   .442   12.6   5.5   1.7   1.9   3.2   .3    .35
39   23   .433   12.5   5.7   1.6   1.6   2.9   .5    .37
49   22   .442   13.3   5.9   1.9   1.6   2.9   .5    .45
76   24   .470   15.1   6.4   1.9   1.3   2.5   .6    .70
                           
   Mike James      Phx                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   24   .503   16.4   4.1   5.6   1.5   2.2   .4   1.15
23   23   .463   14.7   4.4   5.5   1.4   2.5   .4    .95
30   21   .460   14.7   4.7   6.0   1.4   2.7   .4    .99
39   21   .469   15.8   4.6   6.1   1.5   2.7   .4   1.07
                           
   Maxi Kleber      Dal                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
30   16   .592   11.4   7.3   1.0    .6   1.0  1.0    .62
39   19   .599   11.4   6.9   1.1    .5    .7  1.1    .64
49   19   .577   11.6   7.2   1.2    .6    .7  1.3    .69
76   17   .543   10.9   7.0   1.6    .8    .9  1.4    .66
                           
   Kyle Kuzma      LAL                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   30   .619   18.3   7.3   1.5    .5   1.8   .1   1.03
23   32   .578   18.7   6.7   1.6    .5   2.2   .1    .98
30   30   .575   18.5   7.2   1.7    .5   2.3   .2    .97
39   32   .601   19.7   7.6   1.7    .4   2.2   .3   1.13
49   31   .555   18.1   7.0   1.9    .6   2.3   .5    .98
76   29   .538   17.2   7.0   2.1    .7   2.1   .5    .96
                           
   Lauri Markkanen      Chi                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   33   .580   17.8   8.9   1.3    .4   1.8   .5   1.11
23   30   .528   16.0   9.7   1.4    .7   1.9   .6   1.10
30   31   .509   15.2   9.4   1.4    .7   1.7   .6    .99
39   30   .521   16.4   9.3   1.5    .7   1.6   .6   1.09
49   30   .543   17.4   9.4   1.5    .6   1.7   .6   1.19
76   30   .534   16.3   9.3   1.3    .7   1.5   .7   1.09
                           
   Frank Mason      Sac                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
30   18   .535   15.9   3.5   5.1    .8   3.0   .0    .75
39   19   .486   14.2   4.1   4.7    .9   2.7   .3    .70
49   19   .475   13.4   4.1   4.5   1.0   2.4   .3    .62
76   18   .472   13.0   4.1   4.6   1.1   2.5   .3    .60
                           
   Donovan Mitchell      Uta                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   25   .441   17.2   3.4   3.2   1.5   3.1  1.0    .76
23   28   .477   18.5   4.3   4.2   1.7   2.9   .8   1.11
30   29   .527   22.0   4.0   4.4   1.7   3.0   .6   1.35
39   30   .527   21.7   3.8   4.3   1.8   3.0   .5   1.26
49   31   .540   22.1   4.0   4.1   1.8   2.9   .5   1.30
76   32   .539   22.3   4.2   4.1   1.7   3.0   .4   1.31
                           
   Malik Monk      Cha                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   22   .462   14.4   2.8   3.7    .7   2.1   .2    .51
30   17   .452   13.1   2.9   3.8    .5   1.8   .3    .44
39   15   .456   12.9   2.6   3.6    .7   1.8   .2    .42
                           
   Frank Ntilikina      NYK                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   20   .396    6.8   3.4   8.2   2.7   3.8   .2    .52
39   20   .453    9.4   3.8   5.4   2.3   3.3   .2    .38
49   21   .430    8.6   3.8   5.2   2.0   2.9   .3    .27
76   20   .429    8.1   3.7   4.9   1.6   3.1   .4    .15
                           
   Ben Simmons      Phl                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   35   .504   16.6  10.1   8.3   1.8   3.8   .8   1.83
23   35   .521   17.7   9.1   8.4   2.2   3.6   .8   1.92
30   36   .509   16.1   9.3   7.8   2.3   3.8   .8   1.70
39   37   .519   15.6   8.8   8.0   2.0   4.1   .8   1.54
49   36   .517   16.1   8.6   8.1   2.0   4.2   .9   1.54
76   35   .540   16.4   8.2   8.4   1.9   3.8   .9   1.63
                           
   Dennis Smith      Dal                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   28   .460   16.8   4.7   6.0   1.0   4.6   .1    .79
23   29   .453   17.3   5.3   5.4   1.2   4.3   .4    .92
30   28   .461   17.7   5.3   5.3   1.1   4.0   .4    .94
39   28   .465   17.6   5.4   5.5   1.0   3.9   .4    .99
49   28   .468   17.8   5.7   6.0   1.2   3.7   .3   1.12
76   30   .467   17.0   4.9   5.9   1.3   3.6   .3   1.02
                           
   Jayson Tatum      Bos                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   30   .633   18.8   7.3   2.6    .9   2.1  1.0   1.35
23   30   .617   18.8   6.7   1.8   1.2   1.8  1.0   1.26
30   31   .635   18.6   6.8   1.9   1.2   1.6   .9   1.26
39   31   .633   18.4   6.9   1.8   1.1   1.5   .9   1.22
49   31   .614   18.3   6.6   1.7   1.2   1.5  1.0   1.16
76   30   .577   16.7   6.1   1.8   1.1   1.6   .8    .97
                           
   Milos Teodosic      LAC                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
39   23   .446   12.4   6.1   7.5    .7   2.8   .5    .99
49   24   .466   12.4   5.1   8.4    .6   3.4   .4    .90
76   25   .537   13.1   4.7   7.7    .8   3.5   .1    .86
                           
   Daniel Theis      Bos                  
%se  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13   14   .628   13.4   9.8   1.3    .7   3.2  1.8    .80
23   13   .574   11.1  10.9   1.3   1.0   3.4  1.8    .70
30   13   .606   13.2  11.9   1.4   1.3   3.5  2.0   1.00
39   13   .557   12.1  10.9   1.6   1.2   2.9  1.9    .92
49   13   .576   13.0  10.8   1.6   1.1   2.7  1.8    .93
76   15   .606   13.2  10.4   2.2   1.1   2.2  1.6   1.08
The dates covered thru each % of Season:
13 - Nov 8
23 - Nov 25
30 - Dec 7
39 - Dec 22
49 - Jan 9
76 - Mar 2

I count 11 whose Assist rates have climbed notably thru the year, vs 4 who have dropped (incl. Ntilikina); the rest are unclear.
Lonzo Ball is shooting .609 in 2018 (9 G)
Kuzma indeed topped out at .609 TS% thru Dec 22; just .477 since then.

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:12 pm

Zach Collins' rank? Not in top 25.


Phil Jackson as GM was bad. How bad among recent GMs? Bottom third? Worse? Should it affect his Coaching rep? Could take either side imo.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:29 pm

Zach Collins ranks 27th with .74 eWins projected.
He's also 37th in Win Shares and negative in VORP

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:52 pm

About 10 first round guys have underperformed their draft rank on BPM more egregiously but he is a moderate underperformer of pick #. Bigger underperformer on these other metrics, so far. But thse last few months are the least important compared to everything that comes next.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:09 am

At 86% of the season, rookies are headed to 93 total eWins.

Code: Select all

e82   per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.0  Ben Simmons  Phl   35  .540   16.1   8.4   9.0   1.8   3.8   .9   1.73
7.2   D Mitchell   Uta   33  .536   22.3   4.3   4.2   1.6   3.0   .4   1.34
5.4   Jayson Tatum Bos   30  .579   17.0   6.2   1.9   1.1   1.7   .9   1.04
4.9   L Markkanen  Chi   30  .535   16.2   9.2   1.3    .7   1.5   .7   1.11
4.8   Kyle Kuzma   LAL   30  .540   16.7   7.2   2.0    .7   2.0   .5    .96

4.6   Dennis Smith Dal   30  .464   17.2   4.9   6.0   1.3   3.5   .3   1.05
4.4   John Collins Atl   23  .617   14.9  11.2   1.6   1.0   2.1  1.7   1.23
3.9   Lonzo Ball   LAL   34  .441    9.4   7.3   7.4   1.9   2.9   .9   1.00
3.3  Bg Bogdanovic Sac   28  .555   14.9   4.0   3.8   1.2   2.1   .3    .75
3.2   Bam Adebayo  Mia   20  .555   12.2  10.3   2.8    .8   1.6  1.1   1.09

e82   per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.7   Josh Jackson Phx   24  .472   15.1   6.5   1.9   1.4   2.6   .6    .68
2.7  Jarrett Allen Brk   19  .616   13.8   9.6   1.4    .7   2.1  1.7    .96
2.6   De'Aaron Fox Sac   27  .480   14.3   3.6   5.0   1.4   3.2   .3    .64
2.3   Daniel Theis Bos   15  .605   12.5  10.0   2.2   1.1   2.1  1.7   1.02
2.0 Milos Teodosic LAC   25  .547   12.8   4.2   7.3    .8   3.2   .1    .80

1.9   Jordan Bell  GSW   14  .650   11.0   9.2   4.8   1.6   2.3  2.6   1.23
1.6  Dillon Brooks Mem   29  .526   12.4   4.2   1.8   1.1   1.8   .3    .34
1.6   Mike James   Phx   21  .469   15.0   4.6   5.9   1.4   2.6   .4   1.00
1.5   Maxi Kleber  Dal   16  .542   10.7   6.8   1.5    .8    .8  1.4    .62
1.4   Josh Hart    LAL   21  .576   10.2   6.1   1.9   1.2   1.1   .4    .49

e82   per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.4  Royce O'Neale Uta   16  .507   10.2   7.4   3.1   1.2   1.7   .5    .64
1.3   Frank Mason  Sac   19  .477   13.1   4.5   4.3   1.4   2.3   .3    .68
1.3   Luke Kennard Det   19  .545   12.2   4.2   2.7   1.0   1.7   .3    .45
1.0   OG Anunoby   Tor   20  .566   10.5   4.6   1.6   1.4   1.2   .3    .34
0.9 Justin Jackson Sac   21  .522   10.5   4.9   1.5    .8   1.0   .3    .32

Post Reply