2017-18 quick observations

[Crow]

Yeah for MVP race, RAPM wins is better.

On coaching front, Knicks considering M Jackson and Blatt seems realistic. Stackhouse is probably more of a risk than they take. Fizdale doesn't seems like a good choice to me. I doubt he either becomes buddy buddy with Porzingis or takes him to new level. If Steve and Scott pick someone they want to hang with, collaborate with they may well pick Fizdale but I doubt it even works at that level for long. Doc not mentioned on most recent short list. I can see that. Not certain of that but can see why that might be. Monty Williams? Maybe the listmaker forgot him. Probably more likely than Fizdale. Maybe the compromise between Jackson and Fizdale.

Orlando, they might try to get Blatt before New York does. The competition and flurry may work for him as long as he doesn't get too cute with it. Stackhouse? Might have shot.

Suns, Bucks, Griz. Should be Kings, Pustons and Nuggets too though one of more will get to stay another 9-12 months. Hornets. Maybe Cavs. There will be new faces. Going for rethreads seems less wise than before and it didn't seem that wise then either. Blatt as a lightly tested but relatively successful retread some get something. Hornachek? Eh. I wouldn't want him or any of the other recently or soon to be fired. College coaches? There are at least a few credible / realistic candidates. Will it be the trend? I dunno. Possibly. I am not sure the assistant NBA coaching ranks are stellar or even acceptable. Famous ex-players not yet in the biz? That will probably be the most interesting section to watch.

[Crow]

Aaron Gordon IS a role player, not a star. Will he become a star? I have a lot of doubts. Does he DESERVE the max? Heck no. Someone offers that, they are desperate and will be disappointed. Barely positive on RPM. Does not do anything great.

[shadow]

Gordon is worth maybe a third of his max (~$29.6 million per year) at best.

[Mike G]

Aaron Gordon made 1/3 of his threes and 1/2 of his twos this year. Apparently he optimized that process.
All his stats picked up this year, other than TS% which remained a bit low.
How many guys, 220 lb or under, do as much as he does? Energetic, multipurpose players can always find a job.

So, what is the going rate on Wins?
I figured him for 5.2 above replacement/zero, which if he plays 80 games rather than 58, would be about 7.
About 40% of his points are unassisted? That's one of several above-avg areas.

EDIT: OK, the only players with higher rates of Sco, Reb, Ast, Stl, and Blk are: Giannis, Cousins, Jokic, Vucevic, Nurkic.
Gordon had easily lower TO rate (2.1/36)

More blocks than Westbrook; more steals than Zach, Towns, Embiid, Gasol, Randle; better passer than Love, Davis, LA, Dirk, Enes, Jonas.
He out-rebounds LeBron, Griffin, and Montrezl; scores better than Saric, Favors, Olynyk ... a couple things better than some of these.

[Crow]

RPM has him with 27th best PF impact. Most of immediate neighbors are modest to low paid journeyman. BPM has him as average. WS/48 as moderately below average and falling two straight years. Getting minutes and shots is half the battle. Gordon was given them and has not done anything special with them overall. His more frequent and improved 3pt shooting is accompanied by career low & quite modest offensive rebounding. Most of his stats have been pretty quiet year to year. What does he get better at from here? Efg% and TS% have always close to average and not moving up. Both are substantially or massively less efficient that those for Saric, Favors and Olynyk.

Do you think he should be paid on potential or should they try to buy overall pretty average performance for less? Or upgrade? Why is he down or just even with almost every stat compared to his sophomore year? Coaching? Was it a fluke? Is he going to improve markedly from here, why didn't it happen in yr 3 or 4?

It is a tough case to gauge with him being so young. But max? Not even close to deserving that. What is the right number? The offer sheet or less.

Should get as much or more than James Johnson? He will but Johnson had almost twice the RPM. More than Olynyk? He will but Olynyk with almost 5 times the RPM. Usually better and worse values out there but Gordon is not a "must keep". There probably will be better values and there certainly will be better out there.

[Mike G]

Aaron Gordon's season was choppy. He started fast, then missed games; came back but wasn't the same; missed more games and came back with somewhat of a bounce; went out again, came back and finished weak.
Here are those 4 periods of play (several games absence between each) --

Code: Select all

Gms   mpg   TS%   ORb%  DRb%   Ast%   Stl%  Blk%  TO%   ORt  DRt   GmSc
1-25   34  .611   4.7   21.0   10.3   1.4   2.0   9.1   116  109   15.3
26-39  35  .461   6.7   22.0    9.2   1.0    .7  11.8    92  113   10.2
40-47  32  .517   5.9   24.7   14.8   1.6   3.0   8.1   102  108   13.8
48-58  30  .474   2.3   17.6   15.7   2.4   2.4  10.4    90  100    9.9

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2018/
Magic were 19-39 (.328) when he played and 6-18 (.250) when he didn't. Over 82 games, that's the difference between a 27-win team and 20.5 -- just about how I had him rated.

An average team wins 41, so an avg position gets 8.2. Playing 32 mpg the avg player gets about 5.4 . So he's an above-avg player on a very bad team. He creates shots, he's asked to shoot a lot, and this depresses his shooting%.

[Crow]

Yeah, choppy and mostly insufficient as a lead guy. They can't stay there and achieve anything. Either bet on him to take a leap or two or three or bet on somebody else as an add or replacement and make Gordon #2 or 3 or 4 on offense. Magic have about 10 guys competing for upper half usage. Need to fit players to right roles or move them.

Paying Gordon would be more tolerable if they didn't already have a handful of meh to atrocious big salaries. If you pay him as your #1, you bought about the 7th weakest player playing in #1 role in the league. He'd probably the 10th weakest #2 and by RPM a below average #3. #113 best impact estimate there suggests he might even be a weak 4th guy overall though he could be better back out of a #1 or 2 role.

[Crow]

In Philly Jrue Holiday was pretty meh. I was in favor of him being traded before it happened. But...
beginning in his 5th he started getting better, moreso on RPM than boxscore. Leaving Philly and how he was used in old & new places may be part of it. Part of it was growing up, getting better. Now in year 9 he getting much more praise. Late development can happen. I probably should allow for or assume more of that. Not necessarily everyone but more than I have. Hinkie & Co. could probably be said to have been wrong here too.

[Crow]

Griz to retain Bickerstaff? I probably shouldn't be surprised. Might be hard to dismiss the second guy in one season "quick". But team did lose twice as often. Either tank is on already or he goes 20 games in and the tank is on or they keep him and it is an unofficial, unwitting tank.

Coach Bud done in by GM Bud. I haven't done a thorough review but I am not sure it is necessary.

What are the Clips going to do with Doc? If going to move on, can't see logic of waiting much longer.

Portland, rather see the GM go.

[Crow]

I now see that Doc has another year on his deal. I guess they probably aren't going to make the change. Probably should trade Austin first then fire or just not bring Doc back. If a miracle happens next year? I doubt it changes things. They need new direction. I can't see Jerry West supporting more Doc. But who knows.

[Crow]

Some playoff stat observations:

Thunder, lowest assists per game, highest steals. Next to last on OReb%? Whack. Most frequent shots at rim but 12th on hitting them.

Bucks, most blocks

Rockets, almost 10 more 3pt fgas per game but below average hitting them. Lowest fouls given. Lowest own turnover rate.

Warriors, lowest opponent 3pt fg% (from "luck" and skill). Well below average on Moreyball distribution. Not harmful yet.

Philly with one of or maybe best Moreyball shot distributions (Cavs with one of the other better ones) but below average on team efg%. Overall offensive efficiency is strong though. #1 on offensive rebounding % helps a lot.

3 of the 4 teams eliminated so far had below average Moreyball shot distributions. Heat were the exception. But they couldn't enough shots, hold onto ball, defensive rebound or defend without fouling.

Pelicans not that strong on Moreyball but hitting shots at best clip. Almost the only thing they are impressing on with exception of being best at not fouling much.

By net rating the four main contenders are Rockets, Warriors, Pelicans and Sixers. Jazz next.

[Crow]

Westbrook, despite the big game, worst TS% of his playoff career. In 8 playoffs he has only been in the 51-56% range shooting at the rim in 7 years and the exception was a 2 game sample. Usually slips from nothing that special regular season fg% at rim. Second lowest frequency of shots at rim. Second lowest FT rate. Lowest 3 pt fga rate in 6 years. Not getting the good stuff as much.

Westbrook's worst of career on playoffs WS/48, George's worst on BPM. Both below career averages on other metrics.

[Mike G]

Paul George has just 8 assist in 206 minutes, or 1.3/36 -- so BPM is gonna hate him. He leads OKC in mpg by 2.8
Here are his annual eW/484 rates:

Code: Select all

yr    RS    PS
11   .68   .61
12  1.32   .99
13  1.51  1.41
14  1.86  1.81
15  1.30 
16  1.80  2.58
17  1.74  1.92
18  1.46  1.56

He tends to pick it up in the postseason.
Westbrook's trajectory:

Code: Select all

yr   RS    PS
09  1.04  
10  1.42  2.52
11  2.22  1.86
12  2.00  1.59
13  2.21  2.57
14  2.46  2.44
15  2.83
16  2.54  2.50
17  3.55  2.73
18  2.65  1.98

[Crow]

Russ down 6 of 8 times in playoffs, albeit slightly in 2 cases.

George passing tonight... cuz he can't throw it n.

[Crow]

Winslow wants to be a three-level shooter. He had a good 3 pt fg% this season but not assured that this becomes regular. Below average at rim and mid-range. I doubt he gets to average on either of these or FT%, much less good.