2018 Playoffs -- West Conference 1st round

[Mike G]

Warriors 1, Spurs 0
113-92
Pythagorean Wins .94 - .06, eWins .72 - .28

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.19   Klay Thompson   GSW   35  1.038  50.9   2.2   2.1   1.0   1.0   .0   2.58
.15   Kevin Durant    GSW   32  .615   33.1   9.5   8.2   2.3   4.5   .0   2.29
.11   JaVale McGee    GSW   16  .750   48.6   9.6    .0   2.3    .0  4.6   3.37
.11   Draymond Green  GSW   34  .444   12.0   8.9  12.5   2.1   3.2  1.1   1.53
.08   Rudy Gay        SAS   22  .536   23.8  11.1   2.8   3.2   1.8   .0   1.70

.06  Shaun Livingston GSW   19  .688   27.2   9.7   3.9    .0   1.9   .0   1.59
.05   Bryn Forbes     SAS   25  .609   21.5   4.9   1.2    .0    .0   .0    .90
.04   Dejounte Murray SAS   23  .571   13.1   9.1   4.1   1.6   3.4  1.6    .87
.04   Manu Ginobili   SAS   17  .643   21.4   7.2   1.8   6.3   6.8   .0   1.14
.04   Kevon Looney    GSW   20  .600   12.7  11.1   5.6    .0   3.6  1.8    .96

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS   24  .500   19.8   3.5   1.3   1.5   3.3  1.5    .73
.03   Andre Iguodala  GSW   23  .300    3.3  11.6   6.7    .0   1.6  1.6    .67
.03   Derrick White   SAS   13  .583   20.0    .0   2.3   2.7    .0  2.7   1.15
.01   Pau Gasol       SAS   20  .600   11.5   4.1   6.1    .0   3.9   .0    .32
.01   Quinn Cook      GSW   25  .313    5.0   5.9   3.0    .0    .0  1.4    .24

.01   David West      GSW   16  .667   11.4   6.9   2.3    .0   2.2   .0    .29
.00   Danny Green     SAS   22  .600   10.6   3.8    .0    .0   1.8  1.7    .07
.00   Davis Bertans   SAS   18  .308    5.0   4.5   1.7   2.0    .0   .0    .08
.00   Kyle Anderson   SAS   11  .000     .0  11.6   2.9    .0    .0   .0    .10
-.01  Tony Parker     SAS   13  .125    1.7   3.1   2.4    .0    .0   .0   -.31
-.01  Patty Mills     SAS   27  .500    6.2    .0   3.5    .0   1.5   .0   -.27

Shooting: GS .614 - .500 SA
Rebounds: GS 51 - 30 SA
Turnovers: SA 13 - 15 GS


Pelicans 1, Blazers 0
97 - 95
Pyth Wins .57 - .43, eWins .53 - .47

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.23   Anthony Davis  NOP   41  .574   35.8  10.1    .8   1.8   2.8  3.5   2.67
.12   Nikola Mirotic NOP   40  .533   15.9   8.1   2.4   1.8   1.0  3.6   1.48
.11   Damian Lillard Por   42  .375   14.4   5.6   5.3   1.7    .0   .0   1.20
.10   Jusuf Nurkic   Por   25  .579   20.0  14.9    .0    .0    .0  3.1   1.86
.09   Jrue Holiday   NOP   39  .512   20.9   5.3   1.6    .9   3.0  1.8   1.06

.08   C.J. McCollum  Por   38  .514   20.9   1.8   1.6   2.9   1.0   .0   1.07
.08   Rajon Rondo    NOP   39  .333    4.5   6.1  14.0    .9   2.0   .0   1.00
.05   Ed Davis       Por   20  .429   10.7  21.1    .0    .0   1.8  1.8   1.28
.05   Zach Collins   Por   22  .444   13.4   3.0   4.1   3.2    .0  1.7   1.16
.05   Ian Clark      NOP   25  1.00   23.6   1.1   1.2   1.4   3.0  1.4    .91

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Evan Turner    Por   30  .433   16.3   7.9    .0   1.2   4.9  1.3    .49
.03  Pat Connaughton Por   18  .500   15.3   3.6   1.7   1.9    .0   .0    .78
.01  Al-Farouq Aminu Por   30  .500    9.7   7.9   2.1    .0   3.7  1.3    .22
.00   Cheick Diallo  NOP   10  .250    4.5   5.6    .0    .0    .0  3.4    .02
-.00  Shabazz Napier Por   14  .429   15.4   2.3   2.2   2.5   7.4   .0   -.05

-.01  E'Twaun Moore  NOP   27  .500    5.7   2.2   2.4   1.4   1.5   .0   -.21
-.02  Darius Miller  NOP   14  .000     .0   8.1    .0    .0   2.7   .0   -.68

Shooting: NO .533 - Por .457
Rebounds: Por 52 - 49 NO
Turnovers: Por 12 - 15 NO

[Crow]

All the games yesterday had a clear efg% leader, for the season and this game, and they all won. The gap was biggest between Warrior and Spurs. The losers got to line at higher rate in 3 cases and were close in the other. It was not enough to offset the better shooting, this time, probably most times. The proportions of possessions used each way are usually very heavily in favor of fgas over ftas. Around 7.5 to 1 on average for possessions. ( TS% cones into play because of the exceptional cases. 85% of the scoring attempts, efg% captures the result.)

[Mike G]

The Spurs' 21-rebound deficit is their worst in a playoff game since 2001 vs the Lakers. Only other worse was 1986 against LA.
I like to bold the most lopsided stat that accounts for the difference in the series. In this one, I almost gave shooting co-importance; but the Reb differential is most outstanding.

Interesting to note, the Spurs ranked high in both ORb% and DRb%, while the Dubs ranked low in both, in the RS.
When you miss a lot more shots than your opponent, your ORb/DRb get messed up. But this game wasn't so disparate in that way: Spurs missed 48 FG and 5 FT; Dubs missed 37 and 7.
LA with 2 boards.

[Mike G]

Thunder 1, Jazz 0
116-108
Pyth wins .72 - .28, eWins .61 - .39

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.27   Paul George     OKC   38  .857   49.6   7.0    .0   1.0   3.9   .0   3.42
.20 Russell Westbrook OKC   37  .492   27.9  13.2   6.9   1.0   5.0   .0   2.60
.20  Donovan Mitchell Uta   35  .587   28.1  10.4   2.4   2.1   1.1  1.1   2.73
.07   Carmelo Anthony OKC   37  .500   14.6   7.1   1.7   3.0   3.0  2.0    .97
.06   Ricky Rubio     Uta   31  .333   10.2   8.1   4.4   4.7   3.5  1.2    .99

.06   Steven Adams    OKC   37  .500   11.6   7.1   2.6    .0    .0   .0    .76
.06   Alec Burks      Uta    2  1.25  144.6  17.2    .0    .0    .0   .0   13.3
.04   Jae Crowder     Uta   28  .542   14.1   4.6   1.7   2.3   1.2   .0    .73
.04   Rudy Gobert     Uta   35  .636   15.5   7.3    .8    .0   3.2  2.1    .53
.03   Alex Abrines    OKC   21  .786   20.6   2.9    .0    .0   1.4   .0    .60

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02   Derrick Favors  Uta   30  .467    7.1   5.9   2.7    .0   1.2  2.4    .31
.02   Corey Brewer    OKC   34  .875   10.7   3.3    .9   2.2   1.1  1.1    .22
.01   Jerami Grant    OKC   14  .500    7.6   7.8   3.3   1.9   3.9  1.9    .35
.01   Dante Exum      Uta   18  .714   18.5   1.6   2.4    .0   4.8   .0    .13
.00   Joe Ingles      Uta   32  .722   16.9   2.2    .9    .0   2.3   .0    .06

-.02  Raymond Felton  OKC   12  .250    2.6   2.2    .0    .0   2.2  2.2   -.98
-.03  Royce O'Neale   Uta   20  .250     .8   2.9    .0   3.0    .0  1.5   -.60

Shooting: OKC .601 - .557 Utah
Rebounds: OKC 46-42 Utah
Turnovers: Utah 14-17 OKC


Rockets 1, Wolves 0
104-101
Pyth wins .60 - .40, eWins .55 - .45

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.35   James Harden   Hou   41  .721   51.8   3.5   6.3   1.8   2.7   .0   4.11
.24   Clint Capela   Hou   34  .706   33.3  12.8   1.0   1.1    .0  3.3   3.32
.13   Jeff Teague    Min   29  .600   20.5  12.8   9.7   1.3   6.9  1.3   2.08
.06   Jimmy Butler   Min   36  .520   12.5   5.7   3.0   2.0    .0   .0    .86
.06   Andrew Wiggins Min   32  .529   19.9   7.7   1.1    .0   2.5   .0    .92

.06   Jamal Crawford Min   26  .577   19.6   2.9   2.5    .0    .0   .0   1.08
.06   Derrick Rose   Min   24  .552   22.3   3.1   5.4    .0   3.0   .0   1.16
.04   Gorgui Dieng   Min    8  .700   31.3  12.8    .0    .0    .0   .0   2.54
.03   Karl-A Towns   Min   40  .364    5.4  12.2   1.8    .0   2.0   .9    .38
.03   Nene Hilario   Hou   11  .833   20.5   8.5    .0    .0    .0  2.9   1.37

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02   Taj Gibson     Min   32  .692   12.0   7.7   1.1    .0   2.5   .0    .33
.01   Chris Paul     Hou   34  .438   14.3   3.2   4.1   2.2   6.5   .0    .14
.01   Gerald Green   Hou   20  .400    5.6  11.4    .0    .0    .0   .0    .19
-.00  Eric Gordon    Hou   30  .350    6.2   1.1   2.2   1.1    .0  1.1   -.01
-.03  Trevor Ariza   Hou   33  .188    1.7   5.5    .0   2.2   1.1   .0   -.45
-.06  P.J. Tucker    Hou   31  .300    2.5    .0    .0    .0   1.2  2.4   -.89

Shooting: Hou .550 - .537 Min
Rebounds: Min 47 - 37 Hou
Turnovers: Hou 11 - 14 Min

[Mike G]

Warriors 2, Spurs 0
avg score 114.5 - 96.5
Pyth wins 1.80 - 1.20, eWins 1.40 - .60

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.36   Kevin Durant    GSW   35  .644   34.4   9.0   6.8  1.0   3.1   .5   2.49
.34   Klay Thompson   GSW   38  .853   40.9   1.1   3.4   .5   1.0   .0   2.21
.22 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS   31  .585   29.2   9.1   2.0   .6   2.5   .6   1.74
.21   JaVale McGee    GSW   18  .735   33.6  13.1   2.1  3.1   2.1  3.1   2.83
.16   Andre Iguodala  GSW   26  .708   15.3  11.5   6.5   .7   2.1  1.4   1.51

.16   Draymond Green  GSW   35  .429    9.4   7.9   9.3  2.1   2.6   .5   1.09
.13   Rudy Gay        SAS   29  .519   15.7   7.5   2.6  3.1   1.9   .6   1.07
.10   David West      GSW   15  .875   23.7   9.2   3.4   .0   1.1  1.1   1.59
.09   Pau Gasol       SAS   18  .692   21.0   6.5   5.7   .0   2.0   .0   1.27
.08   Manu Ginobili   SAS   20  .559   16.4   4.8   2.9  4.3   2.7   .0    .94

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Dejounte Murray SAS   18  .545   12.2   8.0   2.6  3.1   3.2  1.0    .75
.04   Patty Mills     SAS   30  .565   16.1   2.1   3.1   .0   2.6   .0    .33
.03   Quinn Cook      GSW   22  .393    6.9   7.4   2.5   .0    .0   .8    .38
.03  Shaun Livingston GSW   19  .542   12.1   7.3   3.7   .0   3.6   .0    .38
.03   Kevon Looney    GSW   21  .571    7.0   8.6   4.2   .0   3.3  1.6    .34

.02   Derrick White   SAS    8  .583   14.7    .0   1.8  2.1    .0  2.1    .69
.01   Bryn Forbes     SAS   19  .483   11.0   3.0    .8   .0    .0   .0    .12
.00   Kyle Anderson   SAS   11  .100     .4   7.3   1.4  3.3    .0   .0    .05
-.02  Davis Bertans   SAS   22  .290    4.1   4.4    .7   .8    .0   .0   -.22
-.02  Tony Parker     SAS   10  .182    2.7   3.7   1.4   .0   1.7   .0   -.53
-.02  Danny Green     SAS   23  .375    3.4   3.5    .7   .8    .8  1.6   -.25

Shooting: GS .636 - .503 SA
Rebounds: GS 45.0 - 32.5 SA
Turnovers: SA 11.0 - 15.0 GS

[Crow]

Towns better pick it up.

[Mike G]

Pelicans 2, Blazers 0
avg score 104.0 - 98.5
Pyth wins 1.35 - .65, eWins 1.17 - .83

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.37   Anthony Davis   NO   41  .559   28.1  11.4    .9   1.8   3.7  2.7   2.22
.33   Jrue Holiday    NO   39  .581   28.7   4.4   5.1   1.0   2.0  1.0   2.07
.25   Nikola Mirotic  NO   40  .611   17.2   8.2   1.4    .9    .5  2.8   1.49
.20   Rajon Rondo     NO   39  .524   10.9   7.9  12.0    .5   3.9   .0   1.23
.18   C.J. McCollum  Por   39  .506   19.6   2.2   3.2   1.9   1.4   .5   1.10

.16   Jusuf Nurkic   Por   20  .511   22.0  11.9    .0    .9    .9  2.7   1.93
.11  Al-Farouq Aminu Por   33  .618   13.2  11.4   1.4    .0   2.2   .6    .81
.09   Damian Lillard Por   41  .407   13.7   4.2   4.3   1.3   3.1   .0    .54
.08  Pat Connaughton Por   18  .615   16.8   2.6   3.9    .9    .0   .9   1.04
.07   Zach Collins   Por   22  .500   15.6   5.1   2.0   1.6   1.6   .8    .83

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07 Maurice Harkless Por   14  1.10   23.0   5.9    .0    .0   1.3  1.3   1.21
.05   Ed Davis       Por   21  .500    8.1  14.5    .0    .0   1.6   .8    .58
.03   Evan Turner    Por   26  .310    6.9   7.3   3.1   2.2   2.9   .7    .32
.02   Ian Clark       NO   21  .650   12.5   1.5   3.1    .8   2.5   .8    .23
.01   Darius Miller   NO   15  .800   12.1   5.2    .0    .0   1.2   .0    .16

.01   Solomon Hill    NO   11  .700   13.3   1.4   1.5   1.5   1.6   .0    .19
-.01  E'Twaun Moore   NO   29  .400    6.6   4.1   2.5    .6   1.3   .0   -.09

Shooting: NO .564 - .493 Por
Rebounds: Por 48.5 - 46.0 NO
Turnovers: Por 14.0 - 14.5 NO

[Crow]

So it may take only a sum of .51 or thereabouts of an eWin to win a game.

To find player share of win credit, take player eWin / team total eWin. I know what that is better.

Harden credit .35/.55 equals 64%.
P George .27/.61 equals 44%.

[Crow]

Rockets up 2-0 but lots of worrisome signs. Lousy 3pt fg%, missing free throws, not controlling boards, both Harden and Paul with a bad shooting game (Harden's really bad). Gordon and Ariza with 2 really bad shooting games each... against not much of an opponent.

[Mike G]

Rockets 2, Wolves 0
avg score 103.0 - 93.5
pyth wins 1.66 - .34, eWins 1.33 - .67

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.48   James Harden   Hou   36  .533   33.0   3.8   7.5  2.6   3.1  1.6   3.21
.38   Clint Capela   Hou   32  .696   24.9  15.2   1.2   .6    .6  2.4   2.92
.32   Chris Paul     Hou   32  .569   28.6   3.2   6.8  2.9   4.1   .6   2.36
.18   Gerald Green   Hou   23  .543   19.8  12.5    .7   .0    .0   .7   1.90
.12   Andrew Wiggins Min   32  .484   17.1   7.7   2.0   .6   3.1   .6    .90

.11  Nemanja Bjelica Min   13  .593   21.1  11.6   2.1  2.5   1.3   .0   2.12
.10   Jeff Teague    Min   24  .548   18.6   7.2   5.9  1.6   7.2  1.5   1.02
.10   Jimmy Butler   Min   31  .585   15.4   5.1   2.6  1.2   1.9   .0    .78
.07   Derrick Rose   Min   21  .532   19.7   2.2   3.4   .0   2.5   .0    .81
.06   Jamal Crawford Min   28  .489   13.0   3.4   2.1   .0    .0   .0    .55

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Karl-A Towns   Min   32  .310    5.2  11.9   1.0   .6   1.2  1.1    .46
.05   Taj Gibson     Min   28  .739   14.0   6.9    .6   .7   2.8   .7    .47
.05   Nene Hilario   Hou   12  .833    9.8   8.6   1.3   .0    .0  4.1    .95
.03   Gorgui Dieng   Min   16  .346    6.6   8.3    .8   .0   1.0  2.9    .41
.02   Trevor Ariza   Hou   34  .375    8.7   5.0    .5  1.6    .5   .0    .16

-.02  Joe Johnson    Hou   12  .333    2.2   4.9   2.6   .0   1.3  1.4   -.34
-.03  Eric Gordon    Hou   30  .333    7.6   2.6   1.1   .6   1.2   .6   -.21
-.03  Tyus Jones     Min   18  .200     .9   4.2   3.0   .9    .9   .0   -.44
-.07  P.J. Tucker    Hou   27  .391    5.6   1.3    .0   .0    .7  2.1   -.61

Shooting: Hou .512 - .496 Min
Rebounds: Min 49.5 - Hou 45.5
Turnovers: Hou 10.0 - 15.5 Min


Thunder 1, Jazz 1
avg score: OKC 105.5 - 105.0 Uta
pyth wins 1.03 - .97, eWins 1.02 - .98

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.38 Russell Westbrook OKC   37  .475   23.7  10.2   9.1   2.5   4.0   .0   2.47
.30  Donovan Mitchell Uta   39  .524   27.0   7.1   2.1   1.4   2.6   .5   1.87
.29   Paul George     OKC   41  .614   28.7   7.3    .4    .5   3.2  1.4   1.71
.23   Ricky Rubio     Uta   33  .455   18.5   7.2   6.8   2.8   3.6   .6   1.68
.21   Derrick Favors  Uta   34  .574   16.2  10.7   2.9    .6   1.2  1.1   1.48

.19   Rudy Gobert     Uta   34  .614   17.0  11.1   1.9   1.1   3.5  2.7   1.37
.14   Carmelo Anthony OKC   38  .457   14.9   7.3    .9   2.0   2.0  1.0    .90
.10   Steven Adams    OKC   30  .583   14.5   8.0   2.1    .6   1.2   .0    .85
.09   Corey Brewer    OKC   31  .692   13.3   2.2   1.5   3.0    .6  1.2    .73
.03   Jerami Grant    OKC   23  .567   13.1   5.8   1.8    .7   3.5   .7    .32

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Jae Crowder     Uta   24  .438    8.5   3.1   2.3   3.4   1.4   .0    .27
.03   Jonas Jerebko   Uta    9  .455   13.9   7.1   1.3    .0    .0   .0    .74
.03   Raymond Felton  OKC   14  .556   11.4   2.9   2.7   2.1   2.1  1.0    .45
-.00  Dante Exum      Uta   16  .600   12.9   1.7   2.4    .9   4.0   .0   -.05
-.02  Royce O'Neale   Uta   17  .400    2.9   4.1    .0   1.8    .0   .9   -.28

-.02  Alex Abrines    OKC   18  .611   10.3   2.3    .0    .0    .8   .0   -.26
-.02 Patrick Patterson OKC   9  .000     .0   5.4   1.3    .0    .0   .0   -.59
-.05  Joe Ingles      Uta   33  .533    9.2   2.1   1.4    .0   1.8   .0   -.34

Shooting: OKC .540 - .532 Uta
Rebounds: Uta 49.0 - 46.0 OKC
Turnovers: 15.0 - 15.0

[Crow]

More on playoffs Rockets: 2nd lowest team 3pt fg%, 4th worst efg%. Below average getting to the line. Overall near average offensive efficiency. But best defensive efficiency, from good or great defense?... and really lousy oppinent offense. Tops in blocks. Low turnovers. They'll have to play better.

[Mike G]

So it may take only a sum of .51 or thereabouts of an eWin to win a game.
To find player share of win credit, take player eWin / team total eWin. I know what that is better.
Harden credit .35/.55 equals 64%.
P George .27/.61 equals 44%.

Well, winners get most of the eWins, and their players do, too. If we scale player eWins to their team, we get something like this:

Code: Select all

eWin  %tm    Dubs      eWin   %tm    Spurs
.36   .26   Durant      .22   .37   Aldridge
.34   .25   Thompson    .13   .22   Gay
.21   .15   McGee       .09   .15   Gasol
.16   .11   Iguodala    .08   .13   Ginobili
.16   .11   Green       .05   .09   Murray
.10   .07   West        .04   .07   Mills
.03   .02   Cook        .02   .04   White
.03   .02   Livingston  .01   .02   Forbes
.03   .02   Looney      .00   .00   Anderson
.   .                  -.02  -.03   Bertans
.   .                  -.02  -.04   Parker
.   .                  -.02  -.04   Green

Players on a team are still ranked in the same order, but losers are scaled up, relative to winners.
eWins is a way to compare all players, on all teams, in all series, on the same scale.
Those guys who get negative percents of the total? They just boost Aldridge and others even further.

...Rockets: 2nd lowest team 3pt fg%, 4th worst efg%. Below average getting to the line. Overall near average offensive efficiency. But best defensive efficiency, from good or great defense?...

Their regular season SRS -- 8.2, let's say 9 with Harden -- projects them winning by 6 or 7 ppg vs the +2.35 Wolves. At home they should win by 8 to 10?
They're winning by 11.5 ppg so far.

[Dr Positivity]

Wolves need to 100% trade Wiggins

[Crow]

I was for that for a long time. A case where my skepticism still looks better than the optimism. Need several moves this summer. Needed several more last summer or at the deadline.

[Crow]

Mike, is your % of team eWins different from mine? For Harden, just game 1 for ease oc comparidon, what is in your calculation and what is the result?

McCollum better shooting than Lillard so far in playoffs. I uded to say they were both way overrated. This season Lillard had so strong RPM I stopped saying that for him. McCollum slight negative kept me in my assessment. Not looking ng good for the team design but there is still time for recovery. Not expecting it but still time for.