2018-19 team win projection contest

[shadow]

Doesn't sound like Booker will miss significant time. Maybe a week at most, which would only end up being 2 to 3 games.

[eminence]

Yeah, wound up being much less time than the initial news made it sound. Not going to factor it in at all at this point.

[Rd11490]

Kings,16.19
Suns,17.19
Bulls,19.39
Hawks,20.15
Knicks,20.33
Mavericks,22.68
Magic,27.28
Pistons,30.42
Grizzlies,32.04
Nets,32.85
Cavaliers,38.59
Trail Blazers,38.73
Clippers,40.36
Wizards,40.44
Hornets,40.78
Pelicans,42.26
Pacers,43.57
Heat,44.73
Spurs,46.13
Lakers,47.93
Thunder,49.64
Nuggets,49.99
Rockets,53.29
76ers,53.7
Celtics,55.24
Bucks,55.89
Timberwolves,58.24
Raptors,58.62
Jazz,60.19
Warriors,73.16

Edit: Final edit with updated minutes before we lock for the season.

[Rd11490]

I went and edited it. There was a major bug in the code that messed it up.
You are correct Twolves is pre-trade

[Crow]

No problem. I deleted my quick post on the first numbers in response.

Entries (or final edits) in before tip off of first game. 24 hour extension WITH an excuse plea and without major objection to a number that looks doctored for an untimely game 1 injury.

Projections published elsewhere before the deadline can be included if any of the results trackers care to pull them in.

[Crow]

I'd say at least 5 fan bases would be squealing at their projections but maybe I'll wait to decide whether I agree or not.

[Rd11490]

I wouldn't be surprised if there are major disagreements. I personally have issues with some of these numbers, but these are going to be based solely on LA-RAPM, so if they are wrong, so be it. I'll make improvements to the algorithm next season.

[Crow]

Based directly on last season LA-RAPM or a new projection of it adjusted for age / whatever?

People are encourage to discuss method (at beginning or later), if they are comfortable doing so.

[Crow]

http://www.wintotals.com/ does not look open, at least yet. But check back there if interested in posting there.

[Crow]

On other predictable questions, use a decimal if you want. 2 if you want. I'd think 2 would be enough. Multiple entries have been allowed for desired experimentation but with an expectation that one gets labeled "prime" for competing for "winner" of the contest to keep it "fair". But if you end up with a great result on an ancillary entry, ok to be happy / proud about it.

Scoring method is whatever the various scorers want it to be. Pay attention to whichever you want. Anybody can be a scorer but it would seem appropriate to post update during season (at least one) rather than post a method completely after the season is over.

Trackers, post the set of projections after filing. Predictors, check the accuracy of their inputs and let them know of any input errors, early.

Edits before deadline can be made to your original post or a new one but if it is new, label it as final (when it is).

[sndesai1]

Code: Select all

ATL	23
BOS	56
BRK	31
CHA	39
CHI	25
CLE	35
DAL	32
DEN	50
DET	39
GSW	66
HOU	57
IND	44
LAC	35
LAL	45
MEM	34
MIA	41
MIL	45
MIN	41
NOP	45
NYK	24
OKC	49
ORL	30
PHI	54
PHO	24
POR	40
SAC	24
SAS	42
TOR	61
UTA	53
WAS	46

edited 10/15 for no butler trade and additional spurs injuries

[eminence]

Man, I hope the Wolves get their junk figured out soon.

[RyanRiot]

I figured out roughly how many cents a win was worth last year so that I could convert the Pinnacle lines to the true 50/50 midpoint. I'll have to track that down or figure it out again. For evaluating how accurate the projections are from Pinnacle (or just about any sportsbook since most of them just shift the odds instead of moving the win total itself), it's not fair to just use the value of the line. For teams with significantly better odds on the over you'd be under-representing their win total as measured by the betting market. For those with better odds on the under you'd be over-representing their win total.

Did you ever go back and find this value?

[shadow]

Did you ever go back and find this value?

Not yet. Will try to figure it out this week sometime and post the result.

[shadow]

Found my sheet from last year and ran the Pinnacle win totals through the formula to even out the juice and normalize the total wins to 1230 (Original lines sum to 1235.5 as of today).

Here are the numbers I would suggest using for 'Vegas' when comparing results:

Code: Select all

Team	Wins
ATL	20.38
BOS	58.07
BRK	31.80
CHA	37.38
CHI	29.97
CLE	30.51
DAL	35.03
DEN	47.61
DET	38.52
GSW	59.22
HOU	56.94
IND	47.76
LAC	36.14
LAL	45.64
MEM	33.91
MIA	42.44
MIL	48.43
MIN	39.41
NOP	45.03
NYK	25.32
OKC	47.26
ORL	28.92
PHI	51.42
PHX	29.58
POR	41.94
SAC	26.91
SAS	40.95
TOR	57.19
UTA	49.01
WAS	47.34