2018-19 team win projection contest

[caliban]

Code: Select all

GSW	62,6
TOR	57,0
HOU	56,0
BOS	54,4
UTA	53,7
MIL	52,6
OKC	51,2
PHI	50,2
DEN	47,1
WAS	46,9
IND	46,6
MIA	43,8
NOP	43,6
LAL	43,5
SAS	42,9
LAC	40,4
POR	40,1
MIN	39,9
CHO	39,4
DET	39,0
BRK	33,4
CLE	31,3
DAL	30,8
MEM	30,2
ORL	29,6
PHO	27,1
ATL	26,9
NYK	24,5
CHI	24,4
SAC	21,3

[tarrazu]

Code: Select all

Team	Wins
GSW	62
TOR	57
BOS	55
HOU	55
UTA	54
MIL	50
PHI	49
DEN	48
MIN	46
LAL	45
IND	44
MIA	44
WAS	43
DET	42
POR	42
OKC	42
LAC	41
NOP	40
SAS	40
CHA	39
MEM	35
DAL	35
BKN	34
CLE	34
ORL	34
SAC	27
ATL	25
NYK	24
CHI	23
PHX	21

[Crow]

Thanks again to past contest "scorers", especially Mike G. thru the years. Thanks in advance for any scorers of this contest.

Any latecomers who still want to enter, do so before games start tonight.

[Mike G]

Did Kevin P or anyone else suggest player minutes?

[Rd11490]

Kevin Pelton posted them here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pR-qow ... LMETc/view

[eminence]

Crow - you may have been right on Atlanta, lol.

[Crow]

I might have... initially. But I talked myself out of the super low projection for them and went pretty standard. It may go from very low to better as season goes on.

[sndesai1]

tracking with a few others from twitter and elsewhere included as well - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... IwFv_wPes/

the current projection is just something i threw together in a few mins and obviously not that meaningful. what are some good in-season projections to compare against? anything other than 538/bk-ref/pipm?

[Rd11490]

tracking with a few others from twitter and elsewhere included as well - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... IwFv_wPes/

the current projection is just something i threw together in a few mins and obviously not that meaningful. what are some good in-season projections to compare against? anything other than 538/bk-ref/pipm?

This is awesome, Thanks a ton for doing this.

[Crow]

http://stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nba.php#void ?

[sndesai1]

yeah, those are good power rankings and could probably be turned into a solid projection (though major injuries/recoveries wouldn't be properly accounted for, just like most other team rating based projections)

bbstats has also put this together:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ynKBk5CRg/

[Crow]

Sndesai's link has been updated for play to or thru yesterday. The same original link shown above.

[sndesai1]

Very early rankings

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... IwFv_wPes/

Code: Select all

Rank	Entry			RMSE
1	Average			2.48
2	bbstats			2.49
3	Jinxed			2.84
4	RyanRiot		2.94	
5	tarrazu			3.04
6	caliban			3.05
7	sndesai1		3.06	
8	jgoldstein34		3.11	
9	538			3.17
10	eminence		3.29	
11	shadow			3.34
12	Kevin Pelton		3.45	
13	Pinnacle (No Juice)	3.56		
14	Andrew Johnson		3.58	
15	ESPN Summer Forecast	3.64		
16	ESPN BPI		3.85	
17	Crow			4.62
18	Cicada			4.87
19	Jrue-Tang Forever	5.14		
20	Rd11490			6.00
21	Pyth + Regression	7.14		

[Crow]

I computed a weighted blend of a bit more than half of these entries then tweaked, tried to outsmart that average. I have seen the simple average do very well in past. I wasn't satisfied with just going with that but it might have been best strategy. But, long way to go.

[bbstats]

While I appreciate the early love, the spreadsheet linking to my win projections is my *LIVE* win projections which is probably why I'm in first.

Here's my actual pre-season projections: https://twitter.com/bbstats/status/1052331590263742465