Poll: Who is Most Valuable in 2018-19?

[Mike G]

It seems like an interesting race. A bunch of leaders in various stat categories.
In Win Shares, it's Giannis-Harden-Gobert
In VORP (BPM), it's Harden-Giannis-Jokic
In WINS (RPM), it's George-Harden-Durant

WS/48 likes Giannis-Gobert-Davis
BPM says it's HGJ again
RPM goes with George-Harden-Jokic
PER pops in and says Harden-Davis-Giannis

The poll lists players who rank in the top 20 in at least 2 of 3: VORP, WS, and WINS
You may vote for up to 3 players. You may also change your vote at any time.

[Rd11490]

Is this supposed to be who I think will win or who I think should win?

[Mike G]

thru the allstar break

Code: Select all

xyz     mvp     BPM  vorp   ws/48   ws    RPM  WINS    PER
7.20   Harden  11.8   7.0   .249  10.5   7.88  13.5   30.8
6.62   Giannis 10.7   5.6   .290  10.6   6.14  10.5   30.3
6.04   George   6.4   4.3   .230   9.7   8.44  14.9   24.9
6.03   Jokic    9.7   5.2   .236   8.7   6.46  10.6   27.0
5.98   Davis    8.6   4.4   .261   8.8   6.43  10.0   30.5

5.63   Gobert   7.4   4.3   .266  10.0   5.16   9.8   24.5
5.06   Durant   4.6   3.4   .210   8.8   5.46  11.0   25.1
5.03   Towns    6.9   4.2   .203   8.0   4.02   8.6   25.6
5.02   Curry    6.7   3.5   .221   7.3   5.39   8.7   25.8
4.95   Vucevic  6.6   3.9   .190   7.1   4.99   9.1   25.6

xyz     mvp     BPM  vorp   ws/48   ws    RPM  WINS   PER
4.85   Irving   6.9   3.4   .218   6.9   5.19   7.8   25.2
4.78   Lillard  5.3   3.6   .198   8.2   4.24   8.9   23.9
4.63   LeBron   7.7   3.3   .191   5.4   5.19   7.6   25.7
4.25   Embiid   3.3   2.4   .192   7.3   4.29   8.4   25.5
4.23   Kawhi    5.3   2.8   .230   7.2   2.66   5.5   26.1

4.20   Griffin  5.5   3.7   .157   6.4   3.10   7.4   21.7
3.67   Holiday  2.9   2.7   .113   5.1   4.20  10.1   19.5

This does not account for teams having played more or fewer games. Just totals to date.
xyz is the 7th root of the product of the 7

[Mike G]

Is this supposed to be who I think will win or who I think should win?

Who do you think is most valuable? Open for discussion.

[Crow]

It is a 2 man race, Giannis & James. Giannis is very likely to win it. The timing of the actual vote might be a key factor in the outcome. It is supposed to be a regular season award; but announced in last June, I have to think that the playoff performances will affect sentiment.

[Mike G]

Houston is only the 5 seed now, and just a bad game or two away from the 8 spot. Milwaukee has led the East all season with the best record and pt-diff in the league.
Here are their candidates' current share (part) of team total Win Shares, VORP, and rpmWins:

Code: Select all

mvp ?    WINS   vorp   WS     avg
Harden  13.50   7.0   10.5   10.3
Hou     32.95   9.0   33.0   25.0
.part     .41   .78    .32    .50
            
Giannis 10.47   5.6   10.6    8.9
Mil     44.09  13.8   44.9   34.3
.part     .24   .41    .24    .29

Of course, value to one's team is not the same as absolute value in the league. It's just quite a contrast here, esp. with VORP, where Hou has had just 9 positive guys and 12 negative.

[Crow]

Did Morey overpay to get C Paul? Was it necessary? Would Harden and the depth instead of Paul (original or reconfigured by use of that cap space & trades) have done better than with Paul? Last season, this season, future seasons? Harden might have gotten even bigger in stats, not that MVP voting matters to me. The answer to question about team performance hangs out there. Paul either helps push team to conference finals again or further or he does not. If he does, it may appear the trade was worthwhile. Doesn't necessarily answer the question for everyone the same way because we can't know what the without Paul team would have done. Equal, better or worse? But if the don't get back to conference finals at least once mode or beyond it would probably feel more like a mistake or at least not the right answer.

[Crow]

With the official MVP voters, the narrative matters a lot it appears.Who's turn is it? It appears to be Giannis' turn to me. If Harden gets again it will be influenced by yay points, notoriety and personality. It is not going to anyone but these two and I doubt anyone else is as close in the voting as they are in the stats, which isn't particularly close with a few possible exceptions depending what is used and not, here with metrics. More likely out in the media wild just per game stats will be generally be used and some might not even look that up for all candidates. Making the actual voting result not that meaningful imo.

[Mike G]

update

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xyz     mvp      PER   WS/48 - WS   BPM - vorp   RPM - wins
8.12   Harden   30.6   .253   14.6  11.6   9.5   7.2   17.0
7.48   Giannis  30.4   .288   13.8  10.5   7.3   6.2   13.8
6.79   Jokic    26.5   .231   11.6   9.7   7.2   6.1   13.5
6.38   Gobert   24.6   .269   13.9   7.1   5.7   4.8   12.5
6.29   George   23.5   .203   11.5   5.6   5.2   7.4   18.3

6.16   Davis    30.3   .248    9.6   8.5   4.9   5.7   10.8
5.87   Lillard  24.0   .208   11.8   5.6   5.2   5.1   13.5
5.72   Vucevic  25.4   .190    9.7   6.3   5.1   5.4   12.8
5.72   Towns    26.6   .203   10.5   6.9   5.6   3.9   10.8
5.68   Curry    24.5   .199    9.2   6.3   4.6   6.0   13.1

5.47   Durant   24.2   .201   10.8   4.2   4.1   5.1   13.6
4.42  Westbrook 21.0   .119    6.2   6.4   5.3   2.8    9.4
3.83   Capela   23.6   .224   10.1   2.6   2.5   0.7    4.9

This is everyone making the top 10 in either Win Shares, VORP, or RPM-Wins. Mostly the same guys in each.

[Mike G]

With the official MVP voters, the narrative matters a lot it appears.Who's turn is it? It appears to be Giannis' turn to me..

Giannis is 24. Last year, he was 6th in mvp votes and 7th the year before. Before this year, two all-NBA 2nd team under his belt and 2 allstar games.
Before Harden won, at 27, he'd gotten mvp votes 5 times, including twice placing 2nd. Also 3 all-league 1st teams and 5 allstar games.

Harden will repeat as league leader in both WS and VORP, as almost all his numbers are better than last season's, when he outpolled LeBron 86-15 in 1st place votes.
He's about to reach 15 WS and 10 vorp for the year. Others who have done this: Kareem'76, Jordan'88-89-90, Robinson'94, LeBron'08-09-10, Paul'09.

[Mike G]

b-r.com gives Giannis a 51% chance of taking MVP; Harden 27%, everyone else 22%.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
After Jokic at 4.6%, there's Kawhi at 3.2. He isn't top 10 in any stat?
14th in Win Shares and 19th VORP.
14th BPM, 7th in WS/48 and PER -- but only #100 in minutes.
He's just #36 in RPM and 43rd in r-wins.

[Crow]

If 700 voters change from LeBron, A Davis and other (from last season's voting), Giannis would still need 200 plus to change from Harden. I dunno how it will turn out.

Here is the list of last season's voters https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-conten ... ctions.pdf

[Crow]

Select "interesting" last season award votes

All-Defense first team: Russell Westbrook... according to Gary Washburn.
Defensive player of year second place: Kevin Durant... according to Marc Berman.
Coach of year, 1st, 2nd or 3rd places votes for Steve Kerr? Zero.