2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:02 pm

In month of January so far, Doncic is shooting 40.4% raw FG, 31% from 3 and just 64.5% from FT line. His worst by far marks on all of these. His January TS% is just 51%, or clearly worse than the worst team in league for season. Those kind of efficiency marks would get some players benched or at least put on a watch list.

The rest of his box score stats have generally improved.

His on the court plus minus started out bad at -6 in October then jumped to about plus 3 in November & December. It has fallen back to -2, giving up more than half the gains seen after the October start.

But even worse, when he is with the starters and playing his super size role, they lose by -7.3 pts per 100 possessions. The third worst lineup with over 200 minutes out of 26. Mavs with Doncic in this context have been a failure to date. His time with a strong bench unit does a lot to mask this issue.

Mavs underperforming expected wins again. 3 years below .500. 8 years since Carlisle last won a single playoff series. Top 9 player pairs all negative. Less than 28% of the 346 lineups he has played with are cumulatively positive for season. That's real low. Either tanking or poor selection.

Doncic needs all or almost all new starting partners and / or a new coach / better analytic guidance.

Since they had that surprisingly strong run to a title, only 3 of the 11 lineups Carlisle gave more than 200 minutes to in a season were clearly above neutral. His first and presumably best picks. In none of the 3 cases was it the most used lineup despite being vastly better performing than the lineup above in each case. And in each case that lineup was not retained / used in a similar fashion the following season. Find something that works well, underutilize it, then drop / lose it. Not a recipe for success. He has given the current failed starting lineup far more time already in half a season than he gave any of those 3 past good lineups in a full season. Typical BS scattershot lineup diffusion on weak dinks / lack of concentration on the best. Change is needed. Pay attention to important numbers. If they knew these things, hard to justify continuing as have. If they didn't... get someone that will find & say them.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:33 am

Kings are basically bottom third on 5 factors, top third on 3. Below median ranking on both offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. Overperforming expected wins because of some combo of clutchness and luck. Mostly un-Moreyball shot distribution but decent on shots at rim frequency and a bit above average on overall results. Just out of playoffs, 21st on SRS. Congrats for staying in the race. Need to pick it up a bit. The right trades could make the difference.

35% of lineups are positive, which is above average probably.. Of course 408 lineups were not all needed / are too many / hurt learning / refining. 2 most used negative but that isn't so bad for a bottom half team. Not typically enough to get into the playoffs though.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:54 am

Magic: 2 strong factor rankings, 2 middling, 4 weak. Heightened 3 pt frequency but extremely low at the rim and FT line. Not working for them. Bad offensive, average defense. Slightly outperforming their 6th worst SRS ranking. None of the young players has shown that much this season. Still trying harder than some other weak teams I guess.

Pretty good results from 6 most used lineups (avg. plus 4.3 pts / 100 possessions) and reasonably good usage level but rest of lineups are a terrible -9.6 pts / 100p. Clifford should use his top picks and dink far less. Duh. Will it change? Probably not. Too little response to the data, too much conventional, random lineup management, too little control on that coaching.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:09 am

Based on position classification at Rotoworld (probably has some errors), Warriors and Spurs are carrying the most bigs (8), Thunder the least (4). I think both extremes are highly questionable or flat mistakes that should be addressed.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:03 am

I'd say I agree with that. 6-7 seems like the best number to me. Going a bit lower if you've got 'wings' like George that can easily play up.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:19 pm

Top 5 on BRef playoff probabilities are given 83% chance at title. That is probably low. Next 3, 10%. Rest, 7%.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:40 pm

Jabari Parker has been shooting / scoring well in recent games. The raw plus minus is up & down but better overall too. How significant? I dunno. Haven't watched tape recently or followed him closely ever. Didnt see a reason to. Wonder which team has studied most and whether the are interested in acquiring or if it will be a less prepared, whim / desperation team.

Trae Young has,started to play better too. Improvement over atrocious but pretty quickly. I intend to be more patient with young players, especially in rookie year.

Knicks worse this season than last season when without Porzingis and by more and more. Only a couple Knicks that you could say are doing well or better than expected. Most not. Will Fizdale start to get more scrutiny & heat from employers? Their guy so if he looks bad, they do too

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:22 pm

Zingis trade reset... more money, more time to get it right.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:21 am

Curious where some of the buyout guys go and who else joins the list.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:01 pm

From last season, 4 "good" teams blew out- Wiz, Wolves, Cavs, Pelicans. I'd say for awhile.

From this season to next, I'd say there are strong chances for some significant declines from within a group of 6 top teams mostly because of free agency. Probably doesn't happen to many and maybe not real deeply; but I think something unwanted, unexpected may happen to one or more of Raps, Bucks, Sixers, Celtics, Warriors and Rockets.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:18 am

I'd argue that by the season numbers the Rockets are the weakest performing team with more than a tiny chance at the title. They have played the Warriors well and the top 10 generally though. The main reasons to be skeptical are defense and heavy reliance on a few top players.

Warriors have the second worst defense among the main contenders.

Weak defense could sink the Nuggets, Sixers and Blazers as well.

Offensive adequacy is a big concern with the Jazz and the Thunder.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:12 am

Of the top 11 contenders, the Celtics have 3rd worst record against top 10 and top 16. Pacers with the 2nd worst records against top teams. Jazz, the worst records.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:39 am

Reggie Jackson playing the best basketball of his life recently? Pistons rolling.

Too small sample to be reliable but Clippers and Thunder have done best vs. Bucks. Celtics and Pacers also competitive. Anything systematic to explain this? Who are the beat defenders vs. Giannis? What size / style? Stop Giannis or stop other guys? What are the best articles on these issues?

Lakers defense sure has slipped a lot.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:41 pm

Crow wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 12:23 am
Imo, it would not be wise for Celtics to stand pat and assume Hayward and Irving make them titlists or top title contenders. It may be hard to repeat this level of playoff success without major improvements...

They need more Moreyball...


Celtics are one of the most dependent teams on 3 pt shooting. Very low on ft rate and shots at rim.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:51 pm

Crow wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:09 am
Based on position classification at Rotoworld (probably has some errors), Warriors and Spurs are carrying the most bigs (8), Thunder the least (4). I think both extremes are highly questionable or flat mistakes that should be addressed.
Thunder added several bigs. Warriors did not shift any from bigs to other positions.

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