At All-Star break, Doncic had big per game numbers and showed versatility in a big and growing role. His assists climbed after Smith's injury absence then departure.
His usage is rising. 29% for season and 32-33% since the turn of the new year. The recent usage would be higher than all but about 5 guys in the league.
As mentioned elsewhere, his season to date shooting / scoring efficiencies are generally below league average. Efg%, ts%, ft%, at the rim, from 3 pt land. The trend in the new year is down considerably on all these. 3pt fg% in 2019 is about 32%. FT% is around 66%. Will be interesting to see if he recovers, stays low or goes lower in next 60 days. He faded pretty much all last season after a big start against opponents not initially familiar with him in a big role.
For guys with usage over 28% and over 500 minutes, Doncic is about bottom 20% on efg% and bottom 30% on ts%. That is his role / these are his peers on opportunity.
Doncic
Re: Doncic
Here are some historic peers:
http://bkref.com/tiny/2IT79
Career rates, 3 pt era, Usg>27 and TReb%>6.4
Parameters designed to put Doncic in the middle on Usg% and with at least middling rebounds -- eliminating 12 smaller players in that Usage range.
So we see 31 players, 15 with higher Usg and 15 lower (actually tied w Aguirre).
He's 11th in TRb%, and of the 10 higher, none approach his Ast% of 29.4 -- 22.3 Griffin, Webber 20.2 ...
He's 8th in Ast%, and of those higher, none have the TReb% -- 12.0 vs 11.1 for Westbrook and LeBron.
In this select group, he's just 26th in PER, 24th in WS/48, and 17th in BPM.
16 players rank higher in all 3.
It will be interesting to see whether he evolves into more of a passer, a shooter, or what. It's almost as if they are testing to see if he could be Dirk and Nash in one package.
His ORt/DRt (108 each) = 1.00, ranking 25 of 31. Equal to Carmelo and Cousins; above Aguirre, DeRozan, Wall, Glenn Robinson, and DeAngelo Russell, who all spent plenty of time on bad teams. And just below Alex English, Bernard King, George Gervin.
http://bkref.com/tiny/2IT79
Career rates, 3 pt era, Usg>27 and TReb%>6.4
Parameters designed to put Doncic in the middle on Usg% and with at least middling rebounds -- eliminating 12 smaller players in that Usage range.
So we see 31 players, 15 with higher Usg and 15 lower (actually tied w Aguirre).
He's 11th in TRb%, and of the 10 higher, none approach his Ast% of 29.4 -- 22.3 Griffin, Webber 20.2 ...
He's 8th in Ast%, and of those higher, none have the TReb% -- 12.0 vs 11.1 for Westbrook and LeBron.
In this select group, he's just 26th in PER, 24th in WS/48, and 17th in BPM.
16 players rank higher in all 3.
It will be interesting to see whether he evolves into more of a passer, a shooter, or what. It's almost as if they are testing to see if he could be Dirk and Nash in one package.
His ORt/DRt (108 each) = 1.00, ranking 25 of 31. Equal to Carmelo and Cousins; above Aguirre, DeRozan, Wall, Glenn Robinson, and DeAngelo Russell, who all spent plenty of time on bad teams. And just below Alex English, Bernard King, George Gervin.
Re: Doncic
Wow, from Doncic splits page, he's a lot better after some rest days:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... plits/2019
dr = days of rest. These are per36 rates.
More than half of minutes are after one rest day.
Code: Select all
dr TSA FT% TS% Pts Ast Stl TO PF ORt DRt O/D
0 20.3 .714 .529 21.5 5.8 0.8 4.0 1.0 101 110 .92
1 20.7 .696 .556 23.1 6.2 1.1 3.5 2.0 108 109 .99
2+ 21.8 .786 .574 25.0 6.7 1.5 3.6 2.7 114 108 1.05
dr = days of rest. These are per36 rates.
More than half of minutes are after one rest day.
Re: Doncic
Thanks for the additional information.
70% of the schedule to date has been after 0-1 days rest. That is more him than the rested version.
His FT rate is slightly above median for this group. FT%, bottom 20%. 3pt rate, third highest. 3pt fg% up there higher than most earlier era players. TO rate, bottom 30%. Efg% and TS% median for season but slipping.
70% of the schedule to date has been after 0-1 days rest. That is more him than the rested version.
His FT rate is slightly above median for this group. FT%, bottom 20%. 3pt rate, third highest. 3pt fg% up there higher than most earlier era players. TO rate, bottom 30%. Efg% and TS% median for season but slipping.
Re: Doncic
Doncic on court vs. off, team shoots better with but it is not him directly, it is his teammates by a pretty significant amount. Assist rate down almost 5% on vs off. He may be passing alot but his teammates do better at creating assisted buckets without him. Rebounding slightly better on defensive glass, slightly worse on offensive side of court.
-8 per game while on court in February. Small sample but pretty alarming to me when he had his carte blanche custom huge role and more experience. That is a lot to pedal back before getting on the good foot again.
-8 per game while on court in February. Small sample but pretty alarming to me when he had his carte blanche custom huge role and more experience. That is a lot to pedal back before getting on the good foot again.
Re: Doncic
Doncic's RPM estimate down slightly from its peak to date. 52nd in league. Slightly behind, among others, R Gay, T Young, D Powell. Slightly ahead of Aminu, Kleber, Mason Plumlee, Muscala.
Different kinds of talents. Call them lower first tier or second tier players (or even great third tier players in some cases). Some #1 offensive players in this range too. Quite a grab bag. Pay and future pay varies quite a bit. For max or near max players you'd prefer they be higher on estimated impact than this level.
Different kinds of talents. Call them lower first tier or second tier players (or even great third tier players in some cases). Some #1 offensive players in this range too. Quite a grab bag. Pay and future pay varies quite a bit. For max or near max players you'd prefer they be higher on estimated impact than this level.
Re: Doncic
Dallas unassisted points, derived from fractions of 2's and 3's assisted.https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... l_shooting
%3s is fraction of FGA from the arc. Final column is fraction of all points which were unassisted.
Code: Select all
PtUA mavs %3s 2fgA 3fgA PtUA
770 Doncic .44 .20 .48 .68
310 Barea .33 .16 .45 .75
294 Smith .35 .28 .72 .45
271 Barnes .43 .49 .88 .31
189 Brunson .30 .28 .74 .57
143 Jordan .00 .74 .00 .26
139 Matthews .56 .50 .92 .24
105 Finney-Sm .48 .58 .98 .24
65 Harris .58 .65 .88 .23
56 Powell .26 .86 1.00 .12
39 Kleber .58 .76 1.00 .11
13 Nowitzki .65 .68 1.00 .11
%3s is fraction of FGA from the arc. Final column is fraction of all points which were unassisted.
Re: Doncic
Doncic on Mavs (out of 20 who played there this season):
Efg%, 10th best, TS% 10th, Offensive Rating 8th, TO% 14th.
Mavs' biggest factor issues are efg% and own turnovers. Doncic is a big part of both problems directly, not a leader directly. He probably makes things easier for others in some ways. Maybe harder too for some. Doncic has played with 19 guys. 5 have positive player pairs, 14 don't. Almost half the non Doncic player pairs are positive. Doncic player pairs are positive at a bit more than 25% or barely half that rate. Opponent strength may vary but it raises concerns. Of 10 most used Doncic pairs, it is 2 strong positives (Barea-coming back? and Powell- more competition for his minutes?), 2 slight positives and 6 negative. Doesn't sound like a great recipe at the moment.
Doncic was low relative to teammates on these efficiency stats on Real Madrid last season too. Negative on / off then too, but worse. His on the court plus minus was better last season. Better team relative to leagues. Maybe a better fit too.
Just put highly efficient scorers and strong defenders around him. You'll need to because he isn't either. But we'll see how he develops.
Efg%, 10th best, TS% 10th, Offensive Rating 8th, TO% 14th.
Mavs' biggest factor issues are efg% and own turnovers. Doncic is a big part of both problems directly, not a leader directly. He probably makes things easier for others in some ways. Maybe harder too for some. Doncic has played with 19 guys. 5 have positive player pairs, 14 don't. Almost half the non Doncic player pairs are positive. Doncic player pairs are positive at a bit more than 25% or barely half that rate. Opponent strength may vary but it raises concerns. Of 10 most used Doncic pairs, it is 2 strong positives (Barea-coming back? and Powell- more competition for his minutes?), 2 slight positives and 6 negative. Doesn't sound like a great recipe at the moment.
Doncic was low relative to teammates on these efficiency stats on Real Madrid last season too. Negative on / off then too, but worse. His on the court plus minus was better last season. Better team relative to leagues. Maybe a better fit too.
Just put highly efficient scorers and strong defenders around him. You'll need to because he isn't either. But we'll see how he develops.
Re: Doncic
Doncic last 2 games. Plenty of pts, asts, rebs. TOs, missed 3s. 16 turnovers.
Re: Doncic
Tonight, effective within arc, lousy from 3. Weak FT% but on plenty of attempts. Overall 1 pt / poss. meh efficiency. 1 assist. Huge loss.
A/TO back below league average for all players by little and below average for playmakers by more. Mavs one of the 5 worst teams in league on A/TO and Doncic is only very modestly better than that team average.
A/TO back below league average for all players by little and below average for playmakers by more. Mavs one of the 5 worst teams in league on A/TO and Doncic is only very modestly better than that team average.
Re: Doncic
Yeah, but you can compare him against other rookies and 19-20 yr olds, who have gotten big minutes.
Dirk wasn't an all-star until his 4th season.
For the month of Feb., he was .362 from the arc and season-high .577 overall TS%. His Usg% increases every month, and he averaged 24.4 pts, 9.4 reb, and 7.4 ast -- all season highs for a month.
Yes, and 4.6 TO/G.
Dirk wasn't an all-star until his 4th season.
For the month of Feb., he was .362 from the arc and season-high .577 overall TS%. His Usg% increases every month, and he averaged 24.4 pts, 9.4 reb, and 7.4 ast -- all season highs for a month.
Yes, and 4.6 TO/G.
Re: Doncic
His TS% was alright for Feb., though slightly less than what he did in October. Doncic's games played in Feb. tied Oct. for least games, smallest samples with most rest.
3pt fg% since Jan. 1, under 32%. FT% since Jan. 1, 67%.
To show trend, his offensive rating at BRef is down for second straight month and is below league average The turnovers are a big factor. Second worst month yet on defensive rating.
His team plus minus on the court was -6 pts per 100 possessions, the worst month yet. Running up numbers with a bad team context and bad team results. That is a questionable player / team habit or trend. On / off remains slightly negative.
RPM estimate down a bit recently from its high to date.
For season, his efg%, ts% and off. rtg are in same neighborhood as J Tatum and D Booker. They get some critique for modest, slightly below league average efficiency. At least from me. K Middleton is in same neighborhood in about his worst season in last 5 years. It may cost him some free agent money being this meh efficient on offense.
I tend to report / emphasize mistly what doesn't get reported elsewhere. The meh and negative to balance the almost always pure positive reports. fwiw. Given how bad the team is it doesn't really matter this season. Let him practice being an NBA star. Will next season matter? Probably not, imo. Season after? Yeah, it will start to matter.
3pt fg% since Jan. 1, under 32%. FT% since Jan. 1, 67%.
To show trend, his offensive rating at BRef is down for second straight month and is below league average The turnovers are a big factor. Second worst month yet on defensive rating.
His team plus minus on the court was -6 pts per 100 possessions, the worst month yet. Running up numbers with a bad team context and bad team results. That is a questionable player / team habit or trend. On / off remains slightly negative.
RPM estimate down a bit recently from its high to date.
For season, his efg%, ts% and off. rtg are in same neighborhood as J Tatum and D Booker. They get some critique for modest, slightly below league average efficiency. At least from me. K Middleton is in same neighborhood in about his worst season in last 5 years. It may cost him some free agent money being this meh efficient on offense.
I tend to report / emphasize mistly what doesn't get reported elsewhere. The meh and negative to balance the almost always pure positive reports. fwiw. Given how bad the team is it doesn't really matter this season. Let him practice being an NBA star. Will next season matter? Probably not, imo. Season after? Yeah, it will start to matter.
Re: Doncic
Tonight, 16 pts on 20 possessions used. 1 assist, late in game. -31, worst raw plus minus on team. 39 pt. loss.
Re: Doncic
Hmm. Minus-31 in 29 minutes is bad.
Kleber was worse, at -27 in 22 min.
Devin Harris was -23 in 10 min!
Mejri -17 in 5 minutes!!
Dirk with 4 pts in 14 poss. Hardaway 7 in 14. Ouch.
Kleber was worse, at -27 in 22 min.
Devin Harris was -23 in 10 min!
Mejri -17 in 5 minutes!!
Dirk with 4 pts in 14 poss. Hardaway 7 in 14. Ouch.
Re: Doncic
Yes, different ways to define worst.