The 2018 ESPN draft analytics model declared Bagley the best draft prospect in medium future. More time needed to judge fully of course but... 91st PF on RPM so far. 448th overall.
Ayton 3rd best draftee? 202 on RPM.
Jaren Jackson 4th? A disappointing 164th on RPM so far.
I think Doncic is the only 2018 draftee to make top 100. 60th at moment but falling.
Looking at graphs provided in an article about the ESPN model last summer. it appears scouts do pretty well on selection order in the top 15. Analytics in top 25. Neither of these nor GMs can distinguish draftees from another from about 25-50.
Looking at how the ESPN model is doing vs. BPM performance to date and how I projected it in an earlier tread viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9516, for players ranked in first round and taken there, my quick projections had a 22% higher correlation to BPM for data up til today's date.
2016 ESPN model had Ingram, Dunn, Poetl 1, 2, 3. Simmons 4, J Murray 6, Sabonis 8 are not bad. They are better projection performances than for the top 3.
More draft analytics and analytics on draft analytics
Re: More draft analytics and analytics on draft analytics
Using same approach & data, my projections have a 77% higher correlation with BPM to date than Kevin Pelton's final draft board.