Doncic
Re: Doncic
Worst... best, impressive, acceptable, or somewhat less so.
Re: Doncic
And tonight... 31 pts on 32 possessions used. But rest of team way better... but not enough given 132 pts allowed. Third worst for team plus minus on the court. 2 for 8 from 3. 2-6 in 4th quarter I believe.
Re: Doncic
Doncic turned 20 a week ago, but he's listed as a 19 year old at b-r.com
Most VORP in a season by players listed as 19:Projected to the full season, Doncic will end up with 3.96 vorp. That's almost twice anyone not named LeBron.
Throw in all the 20 yr. olds, and it looks like this:Win Shares are less favorable for Doncic, and I extrapolated his to 82 games.
Other 19 y.o. with >6 WS -- Dwight'05, Tatum'18, Kobe'98, Bosh'04, Carmelo'04, Davis'13. None had more than 2.0 vorp!
http://bkref.com/tiny/8biYB
Age 20 is not the best FT shooting year for most of these:
Most VORP in a season by players listed as 19:
Code: Select all
vorp 19 y.o.
3.1 LeBron 2004
2.9 Doncic 2019
2.1 Garnett 1996
2.1 Kyrie 2012
2.0 A Davis 2013Throw in all the 20 yr. olds, and it looks like this:
Code: Select all
vorp 19-20 y.o. WS
8.8 LeBron 2005 14.3
5.7 Paul 2006 10.4
5.3 Magic 1980 10.5
4.5 Webber 1994 7.8
4.4 Shaq 1993 10.4
4.0 ? Doncic 2019 ? 6.0
3.9 A Davis 2014 10.4
3.7 Garnett 1997 7.3
3.2 Dantley 1977 9.8
3.2 Kirilenko 2002 7.3
3.2 McGrady 2000 6.6
3.2 Towns 2016 8.3
Other 19 y.o. with >6 WS -- Dwight'05, Tatum'18, Kobe'98, Bosh'04, Carmelo'04, Davis'13. None had more than 2.0 vorp!
http://bkref.com/tiny/8biYB
Age 20 is not the best FT shooting year for most of these:
Code: Select all
FT% @20 career
Magic .810 .848
Paul .847 .868
Webber .532 .649
Davis .751 .796
Garnett .705 .789
McGrady .707 .746
Towns .811 .835Re: Doncic
Fwiw, just because I report some Doncic data in a critical way doesn't mean that I am unaware that under 21 data is usually improved upon and sometimes greatly. I do expect he'll get better.
I am tracking current things and prefer to mainly compare him to league average (and maybe current stars). Thanks for the historic perspective.
I am tracking current things and prefer to mainly compare him to league average (and maybe current stars). Thanks for the historic perspective.
Re: Doncic
We've compared Doncic to other rookies this season, and none are especially close in overall metrics. So to get an apples-to-apples, we look into past seasons.
WS and VORP are not more plentiful in one year or another, so they are pretty good baselines for such things.
Back in '06, rookie Chris Paul shot .456 eFG%; but after just a few weeks we thought he could be another Oscar Robertson. Turns out, he is.
Rookies with >1000 min, Usg%>28 and ORtg>107Walter Davis was 23 as a rook, Jordan 21.
In the league this year, there are 51 players with at least 100 assists. Doncic ranks just in the middle in Ast%.
He also ranks exactly in the middle in TO%.
http://bkref.com/tiny/5UcDe
Of 25 players with higher Ast%, only 7 also have lower TO%.
Median age for those guys is 30.
WS and VORP are not more plentiful in one year or another, so they are pretty good baselines for such things.
Back in '06, rookie Chris Paul shot .456 eFG%; but after just a few weeks we thought he could be another Oscar Robertson. Turns out, he is.
Rookies with >1000 min, Usg%>28 and ORtg>107
Code: Select all
rookie yr TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% ws48 BPM
W Davis 78 .577 9.6 16.5 1.9 0.4 14.3 .187 3.3
Jordan 85 .592 9.8 25.3 3.0 1.3 13.0 .213 8.2
Irving 12 .566 7.0 36.5 1.8 1.0 16.1 .125 3.3
Doncic 19 .557 12.2 30.0 1.6 0.9 15.0 .111 3.9
In the league this year, there are 51 players with at least 100 assists. Doncic ranks just in the middle in Ast%.
He also ranks exactly in the middle in TO%.
http://bkref.com/tiny/5UcDe
Of 25 players with higher Ast%, only 7 also have lower TO%.
Median age for those guys is 30.
Re: Doncic
On could take the view that offensive rating should be viewed relative to that season league average to account for rules, shooting options / trends. The league average offensive rating was 2.5 to 5 pts lower for the rookie seasons of the other guys than for Doncic's 2019 context.
I dunno if player off rtg is correctly calibrated so that the average of the player rtgs equals the league average off. rating. It should for original off. rtg, the new version sometimes seen in Dean O tweets or any metric. Not sure how in balance RPM is.
I dunno if player off rtg is correctly calibrated so that the average of the player rtgs equals the league average off. rating. It should for original off. rtg, the new version sometimes seen in Dean O tweets or any metric. Not sure how in balance RPM is.
Re: Doncic
A few weeks ago, the Mavs unloaded 4 of their 5 starters, who collectively averaged 105 mpg. The players they got have averaged 60 minutes.
Jordan, Barnes, Matthews, and Smith were getting some .188 Win Shares per game; their replacements are getting .075.
Consequently the team is not winning much of late.
Giving up your 2-thru-5 scorers, you have to get some scoring in return. Give up your #1 rebounder for a guy who may play next year. Give up your #3 and 4 assist men. Meanwhile the new guys don't do much of anything?
Maybe the best thing is to shelve Doncic for the duration, lest he try and do more than anyone before, in such a situation.
Jordan, Barnes, Matthews, and Smith were getting some .188 Win Shares per game; their replacements are getting .075.
Consequently the team is not winning much of late.
Giving up your 2-thru-5 scorers, you have to get some scoring in return. Give up your #1 rebounder for a guy who may play next year. Give up your #3 and 4 assist men. Meanwhile the new guys don't do much of anything?
Maybe the best thing is to shelve Doncic for the duration, lest he try and do more than anyone before, in such a situation.
Re: Doncic
Another night, 24 pts on 25 possessions used. Game lost during his time on court.
Re: Doncic
Seeing Doncic listed as a G surprised me, so I looked at his position splits and see he's SG for 73% of his minutes, 18% at SF, and 9% PG.
I'd assumed he is SF/PF -- don't know why -- or maybe point forward?
Anyway, 100 players this year have at least 1148 minutes and list as G or G-F.
http://bkref.com/tiny/qiRIn
Of the 100 top guards in the league, Doncic is 12th in PER, #32 in WS/48, and 7th in BPM.
He's also 15th in OReb%, 3rd in DReb% and TReb% (after Westbrook and Simmons).
He's 16th in Ast%, median in Stl and Blk, 60th in ORtg, and 15th in DRtg -- guards do not tend to have good DRtg.
Of these 100, 36 have attempted at least 20 FGA per 100 poss. Doncic ranks in the middle of these with 24 FGA/100.
Of these 36 guards who are told to shoot a lot, Doncic ranks behind 18 in ORtg. Of those ranking higher, just ONE -- Kyrie Irving -- has a better DRtg. Harden and Conley are equal.
So now we are looking for the best high-scoring guards, and 20 of the 36 have ORtg/DRtg > .98
Doncic is median of 20 in TS%, 7th in Usg%
Of these 20, just 14 are above average in all 3: PER, WS/48, and BPM.xyz is the 5th root of the product of 5 columns.
Doncic ranks 7th here in Ast% and 2nd in Reb%
http://bkref.com/tiny/SiR6d
All others in this table are at least 25 years old.
I'd assumed he is SF/PF -- don't know why -- or maybe point forward?
Anyway, 100 players this year have at least 1148 minutes and list as G or G-F.
http://bkref.com/tiny/qiRIn
Of the 100 top guards in the league, Doncic is 12th in PER, #32 in WS/48, and 7th in BPM.
He's also 15th in OReb%, 3rd in DReb% and TReb% (after Westbrook and Simmons).
He's 16th in Ast%, median in Stl and Blk, 60th in ORtg, and 15th in DRtg -- guards do not tend to have good DRtg.
Of these 100, 36 have attempted at least 20 FGA per 100 poss. Doncic ranks in the middle of these with 24 FGA/100.
Of these 36 guards who are told to shoot a lot, Doncic ranks behind 18 in ORtg. Of those ranking higher, just ONE -- Kyrie Irving -- has a better DRtg. Harden and Conley are equal.
So now we are looking for the best high-scoring guards, and 20 of the 36 have ORtg/DRtg > .98
Doncic is median of 20 in TS%, 7th in Usg%
Of these 20, just 14 are above average in all 3: PER, WS/48, and BPM.
Code: Select all
xyz G / G-F PER WS WS/48 BPM vorp
6.21 Harden 32.4 11.4 .241 11.2 7.6
4.31 Lillard 23.7 9.5 .200 5.2 4.1
4.25 Irving 24.6 7.7 .209 6.6 3.8
4.12 Curry 24.5 7.6 .197 6.0 3.7
3.35 Conley 20.9 6.9 .157 3.5 2.9
3.33 Westbrook 20.8 4.9 .114 6.0 4.2
2.98 Holiday 19.6 5.8 .116 3.0 3.0
2.95 Walker 20.8 5.5 .116 2.9 2.8
2.95 Beal 20.4 5.9 .115 2.6 2.8
xyz G / G-F PER WS WS/48 BPM vorp
2.85 Doncic 19.6 4.5 .110 3.9 2.9
2.36 Hield 17.8 4.8 .112 1.3 1.7
2.33 Lou W 21.7 4.4 .130 1.0 1.2
2.05 Dinwiddie 17.6 4.3 .137 .4 .9
2.00 R Jackson 15.3 4.5 .118 .3 1.1
Doncic ranks 7th here in Ast% and 2nd in Reb%
http://bkref.com/tiny/SiR6d
All others in this table are at least 25 years old.
Re: Doncic
Last 10 games compared to prior, Doncic blocks and defensive rebounds per game are up, A/TO and FT% down. Team plus / minus on court per game has nose-dived to almost -10.
Re: Doncic
Team MOV has nose-dived from zero to -14 in the last 10. After 3 quarters, they avg -13.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... games.html
I happen to have allstar-break RPM, and I now looked up current RPM in all games. Then we can deduce last-8 RPM.Only F-Smith has seen improved RPM since the great purging, up from -1.03 to -0.93, so only -0.19 rpm in the interval.
Doncic is down 2.4, while Harris and Kleber are down a lot more, in the 8 games.
+pts sum to -77 instead of -110 -- Mavs 8G deficit -- and it does look as if they've had a fairly tough schedule in this span.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... games.html
I happen to have allstar-break RPM, and I now looked up current RPM in all games. Then we can deduce last-8 RPM.
Code: Select all
last 8 mpg rpm +pts
Powell 33 2.2 12
Hardaway 29 0.0 0
Brunson 28 -2.7 -13
Finney-Smith 24 -0.2 -1
Doncic 24 -0.7 -3
Nowitzki 21 -3.9 -13
Jackson 15 -5.4 -14
Harris 14 -8.9 -20
Kleber 13 -2.5 -5
Mejri 12 -1.3 -3
Lee 11 -1.6 -3
Burke 10 -6.5 -11
Broekhoff 6 -2.8 -3
Doncic is down 2.4, while Harris and Kleber are down a lot more, in the 8 games.
+pts sum to -77 instead of -110 -- Mavs 8G deficit -- and it does look as if they've had a fairly tough schedule in this span.
Re: Doncic
At raw plus minus level for season and only for pairs used over 500 minutes, Mavs have just one still possible positive player pair. The exciting Brunson Kleber pair.
Of the 6 best pairs, Kleber is in 3 Finney- Smith 4, Doncic 2, Brunson 1, Barea 1, Powell 1.
Brunson is in the 2 worst performing pairs with Doncic and Finney Smith.
Mavs need guards. And Hardaway isn't working out, at least in the Carlisle tank. Not terrible with starters but pretty much negative with most of the main guys.
Next season, barring a major reshuffle / acquisition of better players, Mavs should probably play at least 3 of Kleber, Finney- Smith, Doncic, Porzingis and Powell as much as possible in the main rotation lineups. Starter quality guard and wing needed. Exact positions depend on how you want to list Doncic.
Of the 6 best pairs, Kleber is in 3 Finney- Smith 4, Doncic 2, Brunson 1, Barea 1, Powell 1.
Brunson is in the 2 worst performing pairs with Doncic and Finney Smith.
Mavs need guards. And Hardaway isn't working out, at least in the Carlisle tank. Not terrible with starters but pretty much negative with most of the main guys.
Next season, barring a major reshuffle / acquisition of better players, Mavs should probably play at least 3 of Kleber, Finney- Smith, Doncic, Porzingis and Powell as much as possible in the main rotation lineups. Starter quality guard and wing needed. Exact positions depend on how you want to list Doncic.
Re: Doncic
Another mixed night. Near triple double but very lousy shooting except from FT line. Negative plus minus. Got loss when he was on court.
Re: Doncic
Tonight's game isn't over yet, but so far really horrible outing for Doncic. 9 pts on 25 possessions used. 7 turnovers.
RPM down about 1/3rd from peak. 24th best ORPM (before tonight) but 407th on DRPM.
RPM down about 1/3rd from peak. 24th best ORPM (before tonight) but 407th on DRPM.
Re: Doncic
Ends up with 12 pts on 31 possessions used and 9 turnovers. Rest of team? 93 pts on 78 possessions. Luka show loses game. Tied for second worst game plus minus on team. Mavs win time with him off court.