There should be a thread on this. So now there is.
I haven't looked at specific players hardly at all yet.
But I'll float a couple of ideas and comments.
If I simplified and generalized what I'd mainly be looking for in the draft, it might be: 1) Guards / Wings who are ideally triple threats on offense (drive, 3 pt, pass. 2 at minimum for lower picks) and not terrible on defense, 2) Big Wings / Forwards who are good on at least 2 of these 3 offensive elements (or offensive rebounding) and at least average on defense and 3) Bigs good on defense and at least one, preferably two of these 4 offensive elements (or any non-bigs that meet these criteria).
There is a tendency to look at the prospects first and see what they do and don't do well; but I think right now I'd want to start with these criteria and see who fits them or not and then consider exceptions. Agree or not? If you are willing to accept this approach, which players in your opinion fit or don't fit these criteria? Who would you want anyways and how strongly do you feel that way?
Which draft resources do you consider most useful right now? Some from last season seem like they are dead or far less than they were.
2019 Draft
Re: 2019 Draft
Get a great guy / great fit; or if not super excited and can get decent compensation, trade down, trade down or out.
Re: 2019 Draft
Higher/mid lotto seems like a great spot to look for trade downs this season. Most of the guys I'm kind of liking in this draft are looking like they'll go mid-first or later. I'll have to put together at least a lottos worth of guys sometimes. Zion really is something though, pretty dang unique player.
Re: 2019 Draft
A rough draft model, based on BPM with modification based on Assists and Usage (positive) and blocks (negative), plus an adjustment for class, gives the following:
Zion is extraordinary, in a level above the Anthony Davis/ KAT tier. (The third tier was Kyrie, Trae, JJJ, Happ as SO, Embiid, and Brandon Clarke this year).
Code: Select all
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 4 Kyrie Irving FR 2010-11G Duke 10.8 3.5 14.3 0.2
2 22 Javon McCrea FR 2010-11F Buffalo 5.1 5.8 10.9 -1.6
3 31 Kemba Walker JR 2010-11G Connecticut 10.2 2.7 12.9 -1.8
4 42 Derrick Williams SO 2010-11F Arizona 9.2 2.6 11.8 -2.0
5 45 Tristan Thompson FR 2010-11F Texas 3.9 7.2 11.1 -2.1
6 59 Draymond Green JR 2010-11F Michigan State 6.3 7.3 13.6 -2.3
7 75 Jordan Hamilton SO 2010-11G Texas 7.2 3.3 10.4 -2.6
8 82 Jared Sullinger FR 2010-11F Ohio State 5.6 3.5 9.1 -2.6
9 101 Jordan Taylor JR 2010-11G Wisconsin 10.8 1 11.8 -2.9
10 142 Markieff Morris JR 2010-11C Kansas 6.7 5.6 12.3 -3.2
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 2 Anthony Davis FR 2011-12F Kentucky 7.8 10.8 18.7 1.1
2 18 Cody Zeller FR 2011-12F Indiana 8.3 4.2 12.5 -1.2
3 54 Jared Sullinger SO 2011-12F Ohio State 6.3 5.3 11.6 -2.3
4 96 Tony Mitchell FR 2011-12F North Texas 3 6.5 9.4 -2.8
5 98 Branden Dawson FR 2011-12G Michigan State 4 5.8 9.8 -2.8
6 111 Will Barton SO 2011-12G Memphis 6.7 3.6 10.4 -3.0
7 126 Dion Waiters SO 2011-12G Syracuse 7.4 2.4 9.8 -3.1
8 129 Jae Crowder SR 2011-12F Marquette 8.8 5.9 14.7 -3.1
9 147 Bradley Beal FR 2011-12G Florida 5.3 3.3 8.6 -3.2
10 149 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist FR 2011-12F Kentucky 5 4.1 9.1 -3.2
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 11 Marcus Smart FR 2012-13G Oklahoma State 5.4 6.7 12 -0.8
2 14 Nerlens Noel FR 2012-13F Kentucky 2.9 11.7 14.6 -1.0
3 15 Victor Oladipo JR 2012-13G Indiana 9.7 7.3 17 -1.0
4 21 Trey Burke SO 2012-13G Michigan 9.9 2.3 12.2 -1.6
5 25 Otto Porter SO 2012-13F Georgetown 7.2 6.1 13.3 -1.7
6 29 Kentavious Caldwell-PopeSO 2012-13G Georgia 8.9 3.2 12.1 -1.7
7 40 Kelly Olynyk JR 2012-13F Gonzaga 8.7 4.7 13.4 -2.0
8 51 P.J. Hairston SO 2012-13G North Carolina 10.1 1.6 11.7 -2.2
9 55 Sam Dekker FR 2012-13F Wisconsin 6.8 3.6 10.4 -2.3
10 60 Ben McLemore FR 2012-13G Kansas 7.3 2.9 10.2 -2.3
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 8 Joel Embiid FR 2013-14C Kansas 4.7 10.2 14.9 -0.2
2 13 Marcus Smart SO 2013-14G Oklahoma State 8 5.5 13.5 -0.9
3 41 Jordan Adams SO 2013-14G UCLA 8.7 3.3 12 -2.0
4 47 Willie Cauley-Stein SO 2013-14F Kentucky 4.1 10.8 14.9 -2.2
5 73 K.J. McDaniels JR 2013-14F Clemson 5.6 7.3 12.9 -2.5
6 81 Mitch McGary SO 2013-14F Michigan 4.7 7.2 11.9 -2.6
7 89 Kyle Anderson SO 2013-14G UCLA 4.7 6.2 10.8 -2.7
8 91 Aaron Gordon FR 2013-14F Arizona 2.8 6.7 9.6 -2.7
9 95 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson FR 2013-14F Arizona 3.1 7.1 10.2 -2.8
10 102 T.J. Warren SO 2013-14F North Carolina Sta 8.3 0.5 8.8 -2.9
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 3 Karl-Anthony Towns FR 2014-15F Kentucky 6.5 10.8 17.3 1.1
2 10 D'Angelo Russell FR 2014-15G Ohio State 8.7 3 11.7 -0.7
3 26 Jahlil Okafor FR 2014-15C Duke 6.8 4.1 10.9 -1.7
4 28 Kris Dunn SO 2014-15G Providence 6.7 5.1 11.8 -1.7
5 39 Stanley Johnson FR 2014-15F Arizona 4.8 5.4 10.2 -2.0
6 48 Delon Wright SR 2014-15G Utah 8.8 7.4 16.2 -2.2
7 52 Frank Kaminsky SR 2014-15C Wisconsin 9.5 5.8 15.3 -2.2
8 56 Justise Winslow FR 2014-15F Duke 5.1 5.3 10.4 -2.3
9 72 Jakob Poeltl FR 2014-15F Utah 3.5 7.2 10.7 -2.5
10 97 Willie Cauley-Stein JR 2014-15F Kentucky 4.7 10 14.7 -2.8
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 17 Ben Simmons FR 2015-16F Louisiana State 6.3 5.3 11.6 -1.2
2 19 Denzel Valentine SR 2015-16G Michigan State 12.2 4.4 16.5 -1.3
3 37 Chinanu Onuaku SO 2015-16F Louisville 3.6 10.2 13.9 -1.9
4 65 Jamal Murray FR 2015-16G Kentucky 8.1 1.1 9.1 -2.4
5 67 Tyler Davis FR 2015-16C Texas A&M 4.9 5.7 10.6 -2.4
6 85 Jakob Poeltl SO 2015-16F Utah 6.8 4.4 11.2 -2.6
7 88 Mikal Bridges FR 2015-16F Villanova 5.2 6.3 11.5 -2.7
8 93 Ethan Happ FR 2015-16F Wisconsin 2.4 6.8 9.2 -2.7
9 116 Thomas Walkup SR 2015-16G Stephen F. Austin 9.3 4.7 14.1 -3.0
10 122 Kris Dunn JR 2015-16G Providence 5.6 5.7 11.3 -3.0
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 7 Ethan Happ SO 2016-17F Wisconsin 6.5 9.3 15.8 -0.1
2 23 Josh Jackson FR 2016-17G Kansas 5.1 5.7 10.7 -1.6
3 24 Lonzo Ball FR 2016-17G UCLA 8.7 3.5 12.2 -1.7
4 27 Sindarius Thornwell SR 2016-17G South Carolina 9.5 6.7 16.2 -1.7
5 34 Markelle Fultz FR 2016-17G Washington 7.7 1.4 9.1 -1.9
6 50 Miles Bridges FR 2016-17G Michigan State 4.8 4.9 9.7 -2.2
7 63 De'Aaron Fox FR 2016-17G Kentucky 5.1 3.7 8.7 -2.4
8 64 Justin Patton FR 2016-17C Creighton 4.4 6.2 10.6 -2.4
9 68 Donovan Mitchell SO 2016-17G Louisville 6.8 4.8 11.6 -2.4
10 70 Jonathan Isaac FR 2016-17F Florida State 4.7 6.2 10.9 -2.5
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 5 Trae Young FR 2017-18G Oklahoma 11.2 0.5 11.7 0.2
2 6 Jaren Jackson Jr. FR 2017-18F Michigan State 5.1 10.3 15.4 0.0
3 12 Wendell Carter Jr. FR 2017-18F Duke 6 7.5 13.5 -0.8
4 30 Deandre Ayton FR 2017-18F Arizona 6.8 4 10.9 -1.8
5 33 Marvin Bagley III FR 2017-18F Duke 7.7 3 10.7 -1.9
6 36 Zhaire Smith FR 2017-18G Texas Tech 5.7 6.4 12 -1.9
7 38 Jontay Porter FR 2017-18F Missouri 3.6 7.5 11.1 -2.0
8 49 Ethan Happ JR 2017-18F Wisconsin 5.3 6.5 11.8 -2.2
9 57 Mohamed Bamba FR 2017-18F Texas 2.4 8.9 11.2 -2.3
10 100 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FR 2017-18G Kentucky 5.5 3.6 9.1 -2.8
Year Rk Rk Player Class Season Pos School OBPM DBPM BPM Draft BPM
1 1 Zion Williamson FR 2018-19F Duke 13.3 7.8 21.1 3.6
2 9 Brandon Clarke JR 2018-19F Gonzaga 8.8 9.7 18.5 -0.3
3 16 Bol Bol FR 2018-19C Oregon 4.3 6.8 11.1 -1.1
4 20 Xavier Tillman SO 2018-19F Michigan State 6.1 8.9 15 -1.4
5 32 Tristan Clark SO 2018-19F Baylor 7.1 7.1 14.2 -1.8
6 35 Jarrett Culver SO 2018-19G Texas Tech 6.1 5.1 11.2 -1.9
7 43 Ethan Happ SR 2018-19F Wisconsin 5 9.3 14.3 -2.0
8 44 Ja Morant SO 2018-19G Murray State 7.7 2.2 9.9 -2.1
9 46 Grant Williams JR 2018-19F Tennessee 8.8 5.1 13.9 -2.2
10 53 Bruno Fernando SO 2018-19F Maryland 5 7.6 12.6 -2.3
Re: 2019 Draft
I've never tried to put together an actual draft model, but just off eye test and a glance at the stats I'd have him 2nd or 3rd in the last decade or so. AD #1 and debating with Luka.
Re: 2019 Draft
By rookie stats, Doncic is pretty similar to rookies Grant Hill and
Tyreke Evans. Those are different paths forward and not the only ones.
Tyreke Evans. Those are different paths forward and not the only ones.
Re: 2019 Draft
I read Kevin O'Connor's draft guide to top 15 prospects and wasn't very attracted to any of the players beyond Zion. Maybe he was more honest about each players flaws than some other draft media. Not a lot of solid defenders. I haven't watched much video yet. They all sound like down the road projects. Probably true. Some teams have to try to develop, wait and hope. I was looking for plug n play. Will probably look deeper in draft later. So few bigs on top of his list.
Re: 2019 Draft
Brandon Clarke is interesting. Something like Aaron Gordon.
Re: 2019 Draft
I can see the size/athleticism comparison for Clarke/Gordon, but in roles I think they're fairly different. I don't remember Gordon as a prospect really, but Clarke has a defensive feel that's pretty elite.
Re: 2019 Draft
I can't remember if draft "experts" said Gordon was a good defender in college or just had potential. Clarke may be better at that or just more interested. He hasn't played a lot of top talent, part of the Gozanga story.
The Magic imagined a bigger offensive role for Gordon and in 5 years it hasn't really worked. He is still a below average shooter. Slightly below average scorer on too big, too privileged and high usage level. Gordon probably should have a role close to what Clarke is likely to have, should have.
Can Clarke develop a half decent, low to moderate frequency 3pt game? I dunno. More likely yes than no, I'd assume.
The Magic imagined a bigger offensive role for Gordon and in 5 years it hasn't really worked. He is still a below average shooter. Slightly below average scorer on too big, too privileged and high usage level. Gordon probably should have a role close to what Clarke is likely to have, should have.
Can Clarke develop a half decent, low to moderate frequency 3pt game? I dunno. More likely yes than no, I'd assume.
Re: 2019 Draft
Anybody know who created tankathon.com?
Re: 2019 Draft
I accept that Zion is special but would want to see / hear more about games where he faced draft ranked bigs over 240 pounds. Who has a better chance against him inside, the strong or the quick or does it take both? I'll have to look closer but a lot of his stats are not special. The efg% is, from inside shots. The rebounding might be. Blocks and steals good. Most of the rest doesn't look special, at this time.
In the tournament did Tacko Fall guard him any? How good is Blackshear? Would you say Mich St. bigs contained him?
How much did he play center? How is that different from him at PF?
In the tournament did Tacko Fall guard him any? How good is Blackshear? Would you say Mich St. bigs contained him?
How much did he play center? How is that different from him at PF?
Re: 2019 Draft
Watched some video. Speed and length needed to guard. Strength is good too of course but wouldn't be enough alone.
Re: 2019 Draft
How would Jimmy Butler do guarding him? Will LeBron take the matchup, seek it or avoid it? Draymond? Capela? Gobert? A. Davis, Towns, Milsap? Whiteside? Leonard? Embid? Horford? Siakam? Nance, MKG, Anuoby, Griffin, Aldridge, George, Aminu, Tucker, etc. ?
Guarding him probably wont really matter that much for 3-5 years, depending on if team he goes to is competent. But eventually teams will need a guy who can do better than average guarding him or more likely a good defensive denial or blitz routine and a rim protector. Or maybe you use a series of tough bench guys for much of the game. Mix it up, hack. Save the stars to defend at the end.
We might see stats take days off rather than guard him. Or altered substitution patterns.
May need to break out the Shaq tape for defensive ideas.
I'd probably look at tape of college defensive linemen (especially ends) who were good high school basketball players. Might find someone worth considering for a role.
Guarding him probably wont really matter that much for 3-5 years, depending on if team he goes to is competent. But eventually teams will need a guy who can do better than average guarding him or more likely a good defensive denial or blitz routine and a rim protector. Or maybe you use a series of tough bench guys for much of the game. Mix it up, hack. Save the stars to defend at the end.
We might see stats take days off rather than guard him. Or altered substitution patterns.
May need to break out the Shaq tape for defensive ideas.
I'd probably look at tape of college defensive linemen (especially ends) who were good high school basketball players. Might find someone worth considering for a role.
Re: 2019 Draft
Early likes among top tier: Clarke, Hunter, G Williams, Alexander-Walker. Lots of guys I don't think are attractive at their mock draft pick level. Many teams should consider trading down.