Predicting playoffs from days of rest records in regular season

[Mike G]

Over here, Crow did an excellent summary of Western playoff teams' MOV in various states of rest between games.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9480&start=390
Zero days rest = back-to-back games. One day off between games is most common in RS: about 50 of 82 games, on avg.

As of yesterday, playoff teams' MOV with different days of rest:

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DR :    0      1      2     3+
Mil    2.2   10.4   10.9   21.0
Tor    9.1    5.3    7.0   -2.7
Phl   -7.3    5.7    3.5    4.0
Bos   -4.9    6.1    3.4   13.0

Ind    5.5   -0.1    9.2   15.0
Brk   -8.7    1.6    0.7    2.5
Orl   -0.9    2.7   -2.7   -8.4
Det   -1.0   -3.5    9.0    1.3
Cha   -5.8    0.0   -3.3    6.7

avg   -1.3    3.1    4.2    5.8
  
              
DR :    0      1      2     3+
GSW    3.7    7.6    5.1   21.5
Den    8.7    2.1   13.2    2.4
Hou    9.4    6.1    0.7   -8.3
Por    0.0    4.7    4.2   10.4

Uta   -0.9    7.9    1.4   11.0
OKC    5.2    3.0    3.6    4.0
SAS   -4.9    1.9    6.1    4.0
LAC   -0.2    0.5    2.0    7.0

avg    2.6    4.2    4.5    6.5

In playoffs, there are no b2b; and no rest over 2 days except between series.
Rather than discard data in the zero and 3+ columns, I've given them half-weight, multiplied by games, and rolled them in with the 1's and 2's respectively.
Last year, one day rest was about twice as common as 2 within a PO series. Series-opening games matter, though, so I'm giving equal weight to 0-1 day rest and 2+.
Here the PO column is just the avg of the first 2; RS is reg-sea MOV:

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east   0-1    2-3     PO     RS
Mil    9.4   11.8   10.6    9.1
Tor    5.7    6.0    5.8    6.1
Phl    4.2    3.5    3.9    2.5
Bos    4.8    4.7    4.8    4.4

Ind    0.6   10.0    5.3    3.4
Brk    0.3    0.9    0.6   -0.3
Orl    2.2   -3.2   -0.5    0.6
Det   -3.2    8.3    2.5   -0.6
Cha   -0.8   -2.2   -1.5   -1.0

avg    2.6    4.4    3.5    2.8
                

west   0-1    2-3     PO     RS
GSW    7.2    5.9    6.5    6.7
Den    2.8    9.6    6.2    4.0
Hou    6.4   -0.2    3.1    4.8
Por    4.3    4.9    4.6    4.2

Uta    6.9    2.3    4.6    5.4
OKC    3.2    3.6    3.4    3.3
SAS    1.1    5.9    3.5    1.6
LAC    0.4    2.3    1.3    0.8

avg    4.0    4.3    4.2    3.5

The Bucks are mediocre in b2b, strong any other time.
Rockets are the opposite; dominant without rest, allergic to downtime

[Mike G]

With no further refinements or insights, the rest-adjusted team strengths shown above indicate these 1st-round results.
First column is 1st-vs-8th etc. PO are values from opening post.
Higher seed is predicted winner except where marked by *-*, indicated in both 4-vs-5 matchups.

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east  tm  PO    PO   tm   mov   G
1-8  Mil 10.6   2.5  Det  8.1   4
2-7  Tor  5.8  -0.5  Orl  6.3   5
3-6  Phl  3.9   0.6  Brk  3.3   6
4-5  Bos  4.8   5.3 *Ind* 0.5   7
                           
west  tm  PO    PO   tm   mov   G
1-8  GSW  6.5   1.3  LAC  5.2   5
2-7  Den  6.2   3.5  SAS  2.7   6
3-6  Por  4.6   3.4  OKC  1.2   7
4-5  Hou  3.1   4.6 *Uta* 1.5   7

Uta > Hou by 0.5 after one day off, and by 2.5 after two days.
Bos > Ind by 4.2 with one rest day; Ind > Bos by 5.3 after 2. Does not account for missing Oladipo (or anything else).