2018-19 season commentary

[Crow]

17 teams have beaten the Warriors this season. Several potential playoff opponents twice, the Rockets 3 times. The regular season data might not be that indicative of their true strength but it provides at least the possibility of some challenging series and maybe early as well as later.

[Mike G]

James Harden splits re Days of Rest:

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DR  min   ORt   DRt    O/D    +/-   TS%    mpg
0   393   126   108   1.17   14.3  .654   41.9
1  1667   119   108   1.10    5.2  .606   36.4
2   438   111   113    .98   -3.4  .596   33.8
3   142   107   108    .99    6.1  .606   31.5
                     
per 36 minutes:
DR   TSA    Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk    TO
0   29.4   38.4   6.2   8.2   2.2   0.9   4.8
1   29.2   35.4   6.3   7.4   2.1   0.8   4.6
2   28.0   33.4   6.2   5.9   1.6   0.7   5.3
3   26.4   31.9   4.8   6.6   2.5   0.3   7.1

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... plits/2019

Wait, there's more:

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DR   3PAr   3fg%   FTAr   FT%
0   .527   .428   .508   .902
1   .536   .347   .445   .890
2   .546   .394   .369   .787
3   .500   .268   .610   .900

He's twice as likely to miss a FT if he's had days off ?

The Rockets as a team have flourished in back-to-backs, and struggled with more than one day off. How does this bode for playoffs? MOV splits of the western PO teams:

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DR  GSW   Den   Hou   Por   Uta   LAC   SAS   OKC   avg
0   3.4   6.9   7.3   0.0  -0.9   1.5  -3.0   5.2   2.55
1   5.7   2.5   5.1   4.3   7.6   1.3   0.8   2.7   3.75
2   5.1  13.2  -1.2   4.2   0.8   4.2   7.1   3.0   4.55
3  20.5   2.4  -7.3  10.4  11.0   7.0   4.0   4.0   6.5

That last line may be disregarded, as it may refer to only 2 games, or as many as 7.

[Crow]

Based on 2 first round series last spring, the amount of rest appears to be first game 3 days rest then 2 games of 2 days rest and 4 games of 1 day rest in both series but in different order.

Putting aside home court advantage and regular season match-up results, which certainly are important factors, the simple strength of these teams on a 7 game series based on regular season results weighted by frequency of days of rest are as follows:

GSW 7.6
Den 5.5
Hou 1.5
Por 5.1
Uta 6.1
LAC 2.9
SAS 3.1
OKC 3.0
avg 4.4

Compared to regular season SRS, all teams appear 1 pt and change stronger by this rest based calculation except OKC, which is a tiny fraction lower. So only possibly relevant for OKC and who plays them.

[Mike G]

Rockets have to hope all their series go 7 games?
Or are they just doomed?

[Crow]

Over last 10 games they have 2nd best pt. differential in west to the Jazz and 3rd overall. Rockets almost plus 9, Bucks plus 11, Jazz plus 17.5.

Lots of ways to look at it. You play a specific team in playoffs not season avg. or recent set.

By last 10 games,,Thunder and Celtics are way off their form. Nuggets and Pacers down but not quite as much. Warriors and Raptors are 5th and 6th best recently and fine. Blazers take 4th.

Heat and Nets have to hold off a hotter Magic team.

[Mike G]

Rockets demolish Clipps in LA, on zero games rest.

[Crow]

Borrego failed to play his best lineups enough. It is such an obvious and avoidable failure but he didn't avoid it.

He played 9 lineups over 1/2 minute per game. 5 negative, 2 meh, 2 strong. The starters got less than 7 minutes per game for season.

He made time for 612 lineups. More than 70% of which were non-positive for the season.

When will coaches or GMs or owners wakeup to this underuse of good lineups and overuse of usually poor performing dink lineups? It is insane. His non-dink lineups (lineups used over 1 minute per game for season) got about 25% of the minutes and his precious "look at me coaching" 608 dink lineups got 75% of total time. The non-dink lineups were plus 60 points for season or about plus 3 pts per 100 possessions. The dink lineups were -184 of about -2.3 pts / 100. This is how you under-perform. He had a great all sub lineup but gave it one minute per game so he could spew more than 600 others out there. They can be smart and hardworking about a lot of things but if you get this big thing wrong most of the work is negated.

[Crow]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/w ... lose-games

Not sure of definition of close or quantities. Probably not meaningful but fwiw. Could check vs what happens in playoffs.

[Crow]

Kings, horrible defense. Very, very un-Moreyball shot distribution. Average efg% from transition points and maybe being unpredictable. Poor finish.

Who do they target / get as new Coach?

Was shot distribution a factor in firing? I dunno. I would have consider it one. Among others.

Did Joerger ignore analytics staff on shot distribution or were they "flexible" about how to proceed? Efficiency matters most of course but Moreyball still seems a good guide for most teams.

[Crow]

Celtics end up with a win% against the Sagarin top 10 of less than 30%. 20th place.

Pacers slightly better. Slightly outside that top 10.