2019 playoffs

[Crow]

No surprise that Warriors, Bucks and raptors are leading on net rating.

Nuggets and Celtics being the weakest among those remaining might surprise some. Both are playing slow, not getting a lot of FTs. Nuggets not taking many 3ptas. Celtics turning it over a lot and weak at offensive rebounding. Neither forcing opponent turnovers much.

[Mike G]

Jokic played 65 minutes in last night's 4-OT loss. Most minutes in a playoff game since 1953 at least.
B-R.com indicates he played 1:05 though. I wrote to them that it's an hour:05, not a minute:05.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 30POR.html
McCollum (61 min) gets similar treatment.

Dale Ellis and Xavier McDaniel went 69 and 68 in a 1989 RS game. Otherwise Jokic has the modern record for RS or PO.

Meanwhile, McCollum and Jokic have some really nice numbers at b-r.com, having done all those things in 60 fewer minutes.

EDIT -- May 6 -- Numbers at b-r.com are corrected.
Interestingly, these performances ranked the same in GmSc, before and after correction: Game Score does not consider minutes, apparently. So 40 points in 60 minutes is the same as 40 pts (etc) in one minute.

[Crow]

3ptas per playoff game, per team are up 2 from last playoffs. But the differential between regular season and playoffs has essentially disappeared. 3ptas in playoffs went from 29 in 2017, to 30 to 32. The playoff differential however went from plus 2, to plus 1 to zero.

[Crow]

Irving, by far worst playoffs of his career. Horford, worst playoffs in 5-7 years. Tatum, worst basketball of his NBA career. Hayward, the performance of a $5 mil / year role player. Rozier, runs his mouth, but the play in the time he got sucked.

Morris played well. Unlikely to be back.

Others might not be back or might not really want to be back.

Stevens: "I did a bad job". It appears so.

[Mike G]

Horford had 2 distinct series:

Code: Select all

opp   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   TO 
Ind  .427   11.9  11.2   6.0   2.9
Mil  .600   16.4   7.3   4.0   2.0

opp   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484
Ind   11.0  .086   2.5   1.28
Mil   16.9  .120   4.1   1.29

I include eWins because it correlates with minutes better than these others.
Top 2 lines are per36 rates. Stl and Blk didn't change.

Hayward, Tatum, and Irving all had dramatic dropoffs from rd 1 to rd2. Brown less so. Only Morris picked it up.

Kyrie's shooting stats for regular season, and for 9 playoff games.
Below that, deficits in FG made and points from FG in each distance range, based on his avg of 19.9 FGA per game.

Code: Select all

RS    0-3    3-10   10-16  16-23  23+
%FGA  .25    .14    .14    .16    .31
FG%   .606   .391   .462   .453  .390
                    
PO    0-3    3-10   10-16  16-23  23+
%FGA  .21    .15    .17    .15    .32
FG%   .541   .308   .387   .407  .310
                    
FGA  -.27   -.24   -.26   -.14   -.52
Pts  -.54   -.48   -.52   -.28  -1.55

Less efficient at every distance, but same basic order of efficiency -- layups, 3's, midrange. Total from bottom line is -3.35 Pts/G
He shot .500 eFG% in round 1 and .389 in rd2, so most of this deficit is vs Mil.

[Crow]

The general issues for the Sixers in playoffs were too many own turnovers and fouls.

[Crow]

Nuggets in playoffs had a shot distribution well below average on Moreyball and only an average efg%. They didn't shoot many FTs. Shot defense was pretty average. They didn't force turnovers or defense rebound well. Overall the defense was poor. Their main strengths were not turning it over and offensive rebounding. They were Jokic and then not really that much more. Murray and Harris were ok to mildly good. Barton was way off.

[Mike G]

Nuggets ... Shot defense was pretty average. ..

They held SA .030 below their season eFG% and TS%.
Then they held Por .036 below their season shooting.
During the season, they were median in opponent eFG%.

[Crow]

With the final game incorporated, they rank 6th on playoff efg% allowed. A bit better than average. Before game 7's very poor efg% for Blazers, it was not as good.

On average opponent team efg% was down .018. Nuggets did a bit better.

So instead of saying "pretty average", I could have said a bit better than average. But that is still pretty average.

[Mike G]

Dubs don't need Durant! And they're a lot more fun to watch now. Some nice players who have been stuck on the bench are getting minutes and being productive.
Ranked in order of more minutes in the last 3 games:

Code: Select all

more               with Durant            without Durant
mpg+    dubs     mpg    Usg    O/D       mpg    Usg    O/D
10.8   Jerebko   3.1   13.7    .87      13.9   13.7   1.11
10.4   Bell      1.4   16.4    .87      11.8   20.4   1.28
+8.8   Cook      3.9   21.5    .82      12.7   14.9   1.00
+6.7   Looney   17.9   11.2   1.23      24.6   13.2   1.51
+3.8  Iguodala  29.4   14.3   1.17      33.2   11.7   1.02

+0.9  Thompson  38.6   19.3    .93      39.5   28.6    .91
+0.8 Livingston 13.0   11.9    .88      13.8   14.2   1.26
+0.6   McKinnie  9.2   12.9    .99       9.8    4.6   1.61
-0.5   Curry    36.6   26.0   1.01      36.1   34.9   1.16
-1.0   Bogut     8.9   13.6   1.26       7.9    9.4    .83
-3.1   Green    37.9   16.1   1.06      34.8   20.3    .91

38.2   totals  199.9   17.4   1.04     238.1   19.9   1.11

No-shows are counted as zero minutes in the mpg column. All 11 guys have played in each of the last 3 games (sans KD). In the first 11 playoff games, there were several DNP.
O/D is ORtg/DRtg for these intervals. Mostly it's ORtg that creates these changes.

Reconstituting Pts/Gm = ORtg*Usg*mpg/4800, these guys are making more (or fewer) points per game since Durant went down, whether from increased minutes, ORtg or Usg%.

Code: Select all

pts+    dubs    ORt   Pts    ORt   Pts
12.1   Curry    115  22.8    133  34.9
+8.7   Thompson 105  16.3    106  24.9
+6.2   Bell      91    .4    133   6.7
+5.3   Looney   141   5.9    166  11.2
+4.0   Jerebko   98    .9    124   4.9

+2.9 Livingston 101   3.3    150   6.1
+2.9   Cook      94   1.6    114   4.5
-1.0   McKinnie 111   2.7    185   1.7
-1.0   Green    118  15.0     95  14.0
-2.3   Bogut    139   3.5     81   1.3
-2.7   Iguodala 133  11.6    111   9.0

35.2    totals       84.1        119.2

First 2 columns with Durant, last 2 without.

[Crow]

Sixers, Nuggets, Celtics and others defeated. Perhaps too young. By historical data that appeared to be the case.

Still remains to see who wins this title.

Some of those still standing and recently departed might be closer to or in the traditional weighted average age pocket for title winners next season. Or the season after next.

Will Presti field a team with an average age that is below or well below the youngest modern title winner again? Almost certainly.

[Crow]

Of 3 remaining teams, Bucks have by far the most Moreyball playoff shot distribution. Warriors very average, Raptors well less than that. But Warriors have the best team playoff efg% and overall offensive rating. Bucks 3rd best efg%, Raptors 6th. Bucks 5th best offensive efficiency, Raptors 9th. These two have the best playoff defenses. But 9th rated offense is probably not enough to beat Warriors. 5th best might not be either.

Warriors also have a large lead on offensive rebounding over the Bucks and even bigger over the Raptors.

Bucks dominate defensive rebounding and have a pretty good edge on fouls committed rate too.

There are other factor differences. Look them up if interested.

[Crow]

So the 3rd oldest team this season will face the 5th oldest team for the title. Play significantly younger than that and you will probably fall short.

Will you be in great shape to win next season, the season after that, or the season beyond that? We'll see. The game is played in the present.

[Crow]

Spurs took almost 55% of their field goal attempts from mid-range in the playoffs. Zagging while others zigged, the Spurs took that strategy to a tiny bit above average efg% and a first round exit. Their mid-range frequency was 28% more than second place and 50% above the average. By far lowest frequency from 3 pt land. But maybe in some other non 3 pt universe they are celebrating.

Nobody of great playoff note focused on shots at the rim, besides the Bucks. Bucks and Sixers were also the highest on ft rate among the best teams. But outside shooting was perhaps more important.

Warriors and Raptors were slightly above average on mid-range frequency but also slightly above average on 3 point frequency.

Rockets and Bucks were the absolute lowest on mid-range frequency. Maybe it is needed in the playoffs. Being the absolute highest on 3 pt frequency along those mid-range lows didn't work well enough.

A lot of other teams were somewhat similar to Warriors and Raptors on being near average on mid-range and 3s together. Only the Jazz were real close to what the Rockets and Bucks did. Pistons, Sixers and Nuggets were closest to what the Spurs did.

[Crow]

Warriors with 7 rotation players over 3 on BPM for playoffs. Raptors, 3. Bucks, 5. Blazers, 2. Celtics 2. Sixers, 4. Rockets, 3. Nuggets, 2.

If you wanted to add guys above plus 3 in this playoffs who might be available, you'd want to look at Favors, B Griffin, G Hill, Harrell. Looney, surprisingly R Jackson, Marcus Morris, Harkless and a few others.