2019 playoffs

[Crow]

I wanted to look at guys with usage over 20% in playoffs (and over 100 minutes) by older / younger (28 yrs and up vs 27 yrs and below). The top 10 and top 20 by BPM are evenly split by the to groups. But the minutes weighted average BPM favors the younger group, 3.3 to 2.2 or a 50% advantage for the younger group. 25 players in each group. The usage criteria takes it away from a comparison of players overall but I used that as a proxy for offensive leadership.

In 2017-18 the number of younger qualifiers was 40% greater than the older group but the older group performed 111% better.

In 2016-17 the number of younger qualifiers was 50% greater than the older group but the older group performed 258% better.

The trend over 3 years is towards more older qualifiers but comparatively worse ones. Or you could say fewer younger qualifiers but comparatively better ones.

I could do for more years and this may not be the trend over more years.

Fwiw, thought I'd look.

In this last regular season a similar group of qualifiers was almost 2-1 younger but the top 10 was evenly split between them and the top 20 just slightly in favor of the younger group.

What will happen next playoffs? I dunno. A theory would be to focus on the best young offensive leaders. Especially Giannis, Jokic, Davis.

[Mike G]

Interesting. Looking at decades in NBA history, just the top 100 in playoff minutes for these intervals, maybe half of whom were in the Finals.

Code: Select all

years  minutes   med age      youngest // oldest
5060s  459- 869   27.7   22: West, Barry // 35: Sam Jones
'70s   598- 904   27.2   21: Adams, McGinness // 36: Wilt
'80s   570-1015   27.6   20: Magic // 40: Kareem
'90s   612-1071   29.3   22: Shaq, Duncan // 36: Rodman
'00s   656-1079   28.4   20: Parker // 40: Malone
'10s   629- 983   28.1   19: Tatum // 37: Kidd, Duncan

http://bkref.com/tiny/GNomx
It seems the '70s (including ABA) were favorable to younger players, while the '90s were dominated by older.

[Crow]

Compared to other playoff team performances, Raptors and Warriors got to rim at clearly below average rates but were among the three best at making those shots. They were near average on mid-range frequency. They were both above average on 3 pt rate (Raptors a bit ahead) and 3pt fg% (Warriors best, Raptors 5th).

[Mike G]

Both GSW and Tor being high in 3PAr, there are fewer shots inside the arc.
Each team had at least one of the best mid range shooters in the league: Durant and Leonard.
Both teams were top 5 in FT% at over .800, both below avg in FTA/G

Given they were 1st and 3rd in eFG%, you can't fault their shot selection too much. GS #1 in ORtg, Tor #5.