Playoff RAPM (Regular Season Informed)

[sbs]

1998-2018 Playoff RAPM that uses Regular Season RAPM as a prior. It's only single component so there's no O/D split-out.

Here's the top/bottom 30 changes from regular season to playoffs with 8000 playoff possessions:

Top


Bottom


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[Crow]

Pretty small differences for tails.

Might be a bit more digestible if it were only to 1-2 decimals instead of 6.

Wonder what you'd find is you summed by coach.

[Mike G]

What is the number after the name?
The link only leads to the same 60 players. Is there more somewhere?

It's surprising to see Tyson Chandler among the playoff improvers. Always his numbers drop off in postseason, often by a lot.
Ray Allen also declined more than the norm, in boxscores. And Marion, and Zach.

The 30th most-improved is only +0.42, and the #30 least is just -0.16
Does this disparity carry throughout the list?

[sbs]

The number in the player name is their ID from stats.nba.com.

There's going be some confounding influences in here for sure, some of which could probably be handled.

Taking a guess at Chandler, his playoff possessions come from his seasons where he is close to his prime (Age 22-32) and the bulk come from his 2011 run with Dallas (~28%, Age 28). His regular season RAPM includes two stretches, Age 19-21 and Age 33-35, that certainly bring down his prior.

The disparity does carry throughout the list which I suppose can be interpreted that most players perform very similarly in the playoffs as they do in the regular season.

[shadow]

Would you be able to share any insight as to how you used Regular Season RAPM as a prior?

[Crow]

Good concept. We want the best playoff RAPM possible. Regular season priors should help.

[sbs]

Would you be able to share any insight as to how you used Regular Season RAPM as a prior?

Basically the same process as a SPM prior. Adjust the possession expectation based on the player's priors, run the regression, and then add the priors back in at the end.

[Crow]

Kawhi, LBJ, Durant among the biggest playoff improvements. Horford the most notable current player for playoff decline.

[eminence]

1998-2018 Playoff RAPM that uses Regular Season RAPM as a prior. It's only single component so there's no O/D split-out.

Here's the top/bottom 30 changes from regular season to playoffs with 8000 playoff possessions:

Top


Bottom


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Could you share your playoff rapm results here as well?