2019-20 team win projection contest

[nbacouchside]

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Teams	Wins
Houston Rockets	56.1
Milwaukee Bucks	53.5
Utah Jazz	49.6
Denver Nuggets	48.5
Toronto Raptors	48.1
Los Angeles Clippers	47.9
New Orleans Pelicans	47.6
Philadelphia 76ers	46.7
Boston Celtics	46.7
Los Angeles Lakers	44.5
Oklahoma City Thunder	44.2
Golden State Warriors	43.7
Orlando Magic	42.9
San Antonio Spurs	42.2
Indiana Pacers	41.9
Miami Heat	40.6
Portland Trail Blazers	40.6
Minnesota Timberwolves	40.1
Detroit Pistons	38.7
Brooklyn Nets	37.7
Dallas Mavericks	37.2
Memphis Grizzlies	37.0
Chicago Bulls	36.7
Washington Wizards	35.5
Phoenix Suns	34.5
Sacramento Kings	32.9
Charlotte Hornets	32.3
New York Knicks	29.8
Atlanta Hawks	29.4
Cleveland Cavaliers	22.9

Updated post-Zion injury news

[mtpowell22]

Hey guys, just a reminder that the Win Totals league will lock tomorrow at 8:00 EST when the first game starts. If you haven't yet, get your picks in there so we can track throughout the season: https://www.wintotals.com/leagues/b6ca8a6d

Cheers!
Miles

[sndesai1]

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ATL	25.0
BOS	46.0
BRK	36.0
CHA	28.0
CHI	36.0
CLE	21.0
DAL	39.0
DEN	52.0
DET	37.0
GSW	50.0
HOU	57.0
IND	42.0
LAC	51.0
LAL	53.0
MEM	31.0
MIA	45.0
MIL	56.0
MIN	41.0
NOP	41.0
NYK	29.0
OKC	39.0
ORL	42.0
PHI	54.0
PHO	30.0
POR	42.0
SAC	38.0
SAS	38.0
TOR	50.0
UTA	47.0
WAS	34.0

[tarrazu]

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ATL	29.0
BKN	36.0
BOS	48.0
CHA	24.0
CHI	37.0
CLE	21.0
DAL	47.0
DEN	52.0
DET	37.0
GSW	42.0
HOU	56.0
IND	42.0
LAC	51.0
LAL	48.0
MEM	27.0
MIA	45.0
MIL	59.0
MIN	40.0
NOP	38.0
NYK	23.0
OKC	38.0
ORL	45.0
PHI	55.0
PHX	32.0
POR	42.0
SAC	37.0
SAS	47.0
TOR	49.0
UTA	54.0
WAS	29.0

[Mike G]

I see only 8 entries so far.
Ranked by avg absolute departure from our average:

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4.2   Mike
3.7   Rd11
2.9   emin
2.5   ncs.
2.4   trzu
2.0   gold
1.9   sndi
1.6   RyRi

Someone might just average the predictions for each team and be a contender. In general, you lose by being riddled with outlier guesses.
RyanRiot's biggest reaches are Phl and Den, both less than 4 wins above the avg.
Fully half of my guesses are at least that wild: 11 above norm on NYK, 10 over on Cle, 10 under on OKC ... It's as if I'm trying to lose.

[caliban]

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HOU	55,8
MIL	54,1
PHI	52,5
BOS	52,0
UTA	51,1
LAC	49,8
DEN	49,7
LAL	47,5
TOR	47,5
MIA	45,4
SAS	44,3
IND	43,2
DAL	43,2
ORL	42,6
GSW	41,9
BRK	41,8
POR	41,3
NOP	40,9
CHI	37,5
DET	37,1
MIN	36,4
SAC	36,2
OKC	35,6
PHO	35,4
WAS	31,4
MEM	30,2
CHO	28,5
ATL	27,6
NYK	27,5
CLE	21,7

[shadow]

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ATL	33.44
BOS	48.19
BRK	43.44
CHAR	24.19
CHI	33.31
CLE	24.19
DAL	42.19
DEN	52.81
DET	37.44
GSW	47.81
HOU	53.69
IND	45.81
LAC	53.31
LAL	49.69
MEM	28.31
MIA	42.69
MIL	55.56
MIN	38.06
NOP	38.94
NYK	25.44
OKC	34.56
ORL	41.31
PHI	53.56
PHX	31.19
POR	45.56
SAC	37.06
SAS	42.06
TOR	45.44
UTA	52.06
WAS	28.69

[tarrazu]

Shadow,
Did you use the same methodology this year, teasing out the juice from the Pinnacle Season Win Totals IIRC?

[liminal_space]

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NYK	21.94
CLE	23.2
ATL	27.19
CHA	26.5
MEM	30.94
WAS	33.32
SAC	34.48
PHX	35.19
DET	36.19
BKN	38.48
CHI	38.43
OKC	39.34
POR	39.01
IND	40.8
MIN	40.95
ORL	40.8
NOP	41.57
GSW	43.44
SAS	42.67
MIA	44.62
TOR	45.22
DAL	45.67
LAL	48.16
UTA	48.84
BOS	50.18
DEN	51.69
LAC	52.43
PHI	53.56
MIL	56.38
HOU	58.97

edited to remove some decimals

[Crow]

ATL 25
BKN 40
BOS 54
CHA 29
CHI 34
CLE 15
DAL 41
DEN 57
DET 36
GSW 46
HOU 51
IND 50
LAC 46
LAL 50
MEM 27
MIA 53
MIL 61
MIN 30
NOP 37
NYK 30
OKC 33
ORL 41
PHI 52
PHX 32
POR 46
SAC 40
SAS 44
TOR 53
UTA 46
WAS 31

[shadow]

Shadow,
Did you use the same methodology this year, teasing out the juice from the Pinnacle Season Win Totals IIRC?

I just did that last year to come up with values to use for the 'Vegas' entry. My own projection is based on a blend of different team/player models.

I forgot to do it this year to get the no-vig win totals for each team. It looks like all of the win totals are still up on Pinnacle except for the four teams playing tonight. So I could still do it if there's interest. If you happen to remember what the recent line was for the four teams playing tonight that would help. I have all the rest and can post it later when I get a chance.

[Mike G]

What's the Vegas line this year?

[Mike G]

All but 3 of us have predicted the Pistons to win either 36 or 37 games. Avg departure from the average is 1.1
On the Knicks, the range is wide. Even without my own wild guess, the variance averages 3.1
From most to least agreed:

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tm    avg     highest     lowest 
NYK   27.4   Mike   41   20   emin
GSW   46.1   emin   59   41   Mike
Cle   23.8   Mike   35   15   Crow
OKC   37.7   ncs.   44   28   Mike
Mem   29.9   ncs.   37   22   Mike
Tor   46.5   Crow   53   38   Mike
Atl   29.6   Rd11   38   25 snd,Cro
Phl   51.8   trzu   55   43   Rd11
Den   51.1   Crow   57   43   Rd11
Bos   47.7   Crow   54   42   Mike
Mia   44.1   Crow   53   36   Mike
Phx   33.6   Rd11   41   30   gold
Was   31.6   Rd11   39   28   Mike
SAS   41.4   trzu   47   37   emin
Cha   27.5   Rd11   35   24   trzu
NOP   40.5   ncs.   48   36   emin
LAL   49.0   Mike   55   44   Rd11
Por   42.5   Mike   47   37   Rd11
Mil   56.1   Crow   61   53   Mike
Dal   42.4   trzu   47   37   ncs.
Uta   50.5   emin   57   47   sndi
Brk   39.2   shad   43   36 snd,trz
Min   38.6   lisp   41   30   Crow
LAC   50.9   emin   56   46   Crow
Ind   43.3   Crow   50   41   Rd11
Hou   55.0   lisp   59   50   Rd11
Sac   36.3   Crow   40   33   emin
Chi   36.8   Rd11   41   33   shad
Orl   42.3   Mike   46   41   lisp
Det   36.9   Mike   41   33   gold

I didn't regress to .500 as much as usual. Some of you guys evade this list entirely.

[eminence]

Mmkay, so I need the Warriors to win and the Knicks to lose, if the recent past is any sort of indicator I'm in decent shape

And I like the riskier picks Mike

[shadow]

I teased out the juice from the Pinnacle win totals and scaled them to 1230. Feel free to use these as the values for the 'Vegas' entry if you'd like:

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ATL	33.92
BOS	48.99
BRK	42.28
CHA	21.72
CHI	36.94
CLE	22.51
DAL	43.36
DEN	53.94
DET	38.94
GSW	44.17
HOU	55.27
IND	44.84
LAC	52.43
LAL	50.43
MEM	28.59
MIA	44.59
MIL	54.79
MIN	37.03
NOP	35.93
NYK	25.12
OKC	35.66
ORL	42.33
PHI	55.46
PHX	30.61
POR	46.29
SAC	38.46
SAS	43.72
TOR	46.43
UTA	51.34
WAS	23.92