2019-20 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

Relaxing the SRS weight a tad, as both Phl and Sac are running to extremes.

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. avg err         avg err 
trzu   7.5      .538   8.2
cali   7.5      shad   8.2
Rd11   7.7      emin   8.3
avg.   7.7      RyRi   8.4
lisp   7.7      Mike   8.4
ncs.   8.1      gold   8.5
sndi   8.1      re19   8.5
vegas  8.1      Crow   8.7

Outscoring the West by 9.3 ppg in 3 games last night, the East achieves SRS parity, for now.

Ranked by most to least well predicted, our tentative average error on win totals, listing also the projection (based on 4-5 games) and the avg prediction.

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err   tm    proj  pre
-1    Cha    27    28
+1    Orl    43    42
+1    NYK    29    27
-2    Por    41    43
+2    Det    39    37
-3    LAC    48    51
+3    Dal    46    42
+3    OKC    41    38
+3    LAL    52    49
+3    SAS    45    41
+4    Uta    54    50
+5    Tor    52    47
+7    Min    45    39
-7    Den    44    51
-7    Mem    23    30
+7    Mia    51    44
+8    Bos    55    48
-9    Mil    48    56
-9    NOP    31    40
+10   Phl    62    52
-10   Brk    29    39
+11   Was    43    32
+11   Cle    35    24
-12   Hou    43    55
-12   Ind    31    43
-12   Chi    25    37
-16   Sac    21    36
+17   Phx    50    34
-17   GSW    29    46
+20   Atl    49    30

[Mike G]

Why are the Celtics doing so well? They lost their 2 best players (in Win Shares and VORP) and 4 of their main 8, nominally replacing just one of them.

This year, their remaining 4 core players plus Kemba are all doing better than last year, thru 4 games:

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19/20   min   PER   WS/48   BPM 1819: PER  WS/48   BPM
Tatum   145   16.8   .101   1.6      15.1   .097  -0.8
Walker  139   21.8   .198   5.7      21.7   .123   3.3
Hayward 137   16.2   .139   2.0      15.6   .126   0.5
Smart   127   14.7   .159   3.8      13.1   .116   1.8
Brown    86   19.2   .173   3.4      13.5   .076  -2.1

totals  634   17.7   .152   3.3      16.0   .110   0.7

Both the 2019-20 and the 2018-19 totals are weighted by this season's minutes.
Improved across the board, these 5 have played 66% of team minutes.
A BPM gain of +2.6 per player should mean +13 for the group? At 2/3 of team minutes, some 8-9 extra pts/G we would not have been able to predict?

It's not a 'death lineup' yet. They have run just 5 minutes together.

[Mike G]

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.  avg err   rmse
trzu   8.2   10.0
cali   8.3   10.0
lisp   8.4   10.0
Rd11   8.4   10.1
avg.   8.5   10.2
vegas  8.8   10.8
.538   8.8   10.5
shad   8.9   10.6
sndi   8.9   11.0
RyRi   9.0   10.7
ncs.   9.0   10.6
emin   9.0   11.3
Mike   9.1   11.1
gold   9.2   10.9
re19   9.5   11.6
Crow   9.5   11.9

EDIT Nov. 2 -- some shakeup:

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.  avg err   rmse
Rd11   8.1    9.9
lisp   8.1   10.1
cali   8.2   10.0
trzu   8.2   10.1
avg.   8.3   10.2
sndi   8.6   11.0
shad   8.8   10.6
RyRi   8.8   10.7
gold   8.8   10.8
.538   8.8   10.8
vegas  8.9   10.7
Crow   8.9   11.4
ncs.   9.1   10.8
Mike   9.2   11.0
emin   9.4   11.6
re19   9.6   11.6

Errors are relative to these projections:

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LAL   56      Phl   65
Uta   50      Mia   58
Phx   50      Bos   56
LAC   49      Mil   56
Min   49      Tor   53
SAS   46      Atl   48
Dal   44      Was   42
Por   39      Orl   37
OKC   39      Det   34
Hou   38      Brk   34
Den   38      Ind   32
NOP   34      Cle   32
GSW   24      NYK   30
Mem   22      Chi   27
Sac   20      Cha   26
avg   40      avg   42

These W+SRS projections only work when future schedules are balanced. Right now, the East looks about 1.5 ppg stronger.


EDIT Nov 3

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.  avg err   rmse
cali   8.2   10.3
trzu   8.2   10.2
lisp   8.3   10.3
Rd11   8.5   10.2
sndi   8.6   11.3
RyRi   8.8   10.9
gold   8.8   11.0
shad   8.8   10.7
.538   8.9   10.9
vegas  8.9   10.7
Crow   9.0   11.7
ncs.   9.2   11.1
emin   9.2   11.7
Mike   9.5   11.3

Both Min and Phl won without their star centers.

EDIT Nov. 6

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   6.8    8.9
trzu   6.9    9.0
avg.   7.4    9.0
cali   7.5    9.1
gold   7.6    9.7
emin   7.6    9.9
.538   7.6    9.4
shad   7.7    9.4
Rd11   7.7    8.7
RyRi   7.7    9.7
vegas  7.8    9.6
sndi   7.9   10.0
ncs.   8.0    9.9
Crow   8.6   10.4
19re   8.7   10.4
Mike   9.0   10.3

I'm using .70 of current srs to project remaining games.
With that, expected wins look like this:

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LAL   56      Mil   59
Phx   55      Phl   56
LAC   54      Mia   55
Uta   52      Bos   50
Dal   48      Tor   49
Den   48      Atl   46
Min   46      Was   39
SAS   44      Orl   34
OKC   42      Brk   33
Por   40      Ind   32
Hou   36      Cha   31
NOP   31      Det   31
GSW   29      Cle   30
Sac   29      Chi   26
Mem   24      NYK   23

West is now looking dominant at 42.4 - 39.6 avg

[Mike G]

SRS abruptly seem to be quite stable, so the projections are now using .80 of current SRS for remaining games.

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.   avg err   rmse
lisp    6.2    8.6
trzu    6.5    8.7
emin    6.7    9.8
avg.    6.8    8.8
cali    6.9    8.7
gold    6.9    9.4
shad    7.1    9.2
.538    7.2    9.2
sndi    7.2    9.9
RyRi    7.3    9.4
Rd11    7.3    8.7
vegas   7.4    9.3
ncs.    7.6    9.8
Crow    8.1   10.0
19re    8.4   10.6
Mike    8.8   10.4

I'm now holding 11 of the 30 worst team guesses and just 2 of the best (LAL, GSW)
Leader lisp is best (or tied) on 8 and worst on only 1. He has two outliers (high on Hou, low on Orl) and is 1/2 there.

[eminence]

That GS call is really not helping in the RMSE bracket, lol.

[Crow]

Avg. here has about 8% less "avg. error" than Vegas line. The current leader about 16% better.

[Mike G]

This is with 83% of current srs.

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.  avg err    rmse
trzu    6.3    8.6
lisp    6.5    8.9
cali    6.6    8.6
avg.    6.6    8.8
shad    6.8    9.1
gold    6.9    9.4
emin    6.9   10.0
RyRi    7.0    9.3
vegas   7.1    9.0
Crow    7.1    9.5
.538    7.4    9.7
sndi    7.5    9.9
Rd11    7.6    9.1
Mike    7.9    9.8
ncs.    8.1   10.1
19re    8.7   10.9

b-r.com now has Projected Standings running, aka Playoff Probabilities Report. But they're so heavily regressed -- using maybe 45% of current SRS -- that I'm sticking with what you see above.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
The link is under the Conference Standings table in Season Summary.

Projected records as if teams continue as they have been doing, slightly regressed to .500

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LAL   62      Mil   62
Uta   57      Bos   56
LAC   55      Mia   54
Phx   53      Tor   53
Den   50      Phl   52
Dal   45      Ind   39
SAS   44      Orl   39
OKC   39      Atl   36

Min   38      Cle   35
Por   37      Brk   35
Hou   36      Det   33
Sac   32      Chi   32
NOP   27      Was   30
Mem   23      Cha   29
GSW   22      NYK   24

[Crow]

Made some progress in last update.

The list of the projected records is helpful for understanding the scoring.

[Crow]

fwiw, comparison or use: https://twitter.com/CountingBaskets/sta ... 2858262531

[Mike G]

Bad night for all but eminence and Crow.

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.   avg err   rmse
lisp   6.85    9.0
trzu   6.87    8.9
emin   6.95   10.2
cali   7.12    8.9
avg.   7.15    9.1
gold   7.30    9.6
shad   7.46    9.5
Crow   7.47    9.7
RyRi   7.47    9.6
vegas  7.80    9.4
sndi   7.89   10.2
.538   7.89   10.1
Rd11   8.35    9.6
Mike   8.53   10.4
ncs.   8.58   10.4
19re   9.47   11.2

We're at 11% of the season. Using current srs*.85, standings project thus:

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LAL   59      Mil   62
Uta   57      Bos   59
Phx   56      Tor   56
LAC   55      Mia   54
Den   50      Phl   53
Dal   46      Ind   41
OKC   41      Cle   39
Hou   41      Orl   37

SAS   41      Brk   32
Por   39      Atl   32
Min   33      Det   32
Sac   32      Was   31
NOP   30      Cha   28
GSW   23      Chi   28
Mem   21      NYK   21

Suns and Heat look like the real deal. Raps and Celtics don't mind their star defections. Cavs and Thunders are in the hunt. Bottom has dropped out for Dubs, Griz, Nix

[Rd11490]

Anyone have a CSV of everyone's projections?

[nbacouchside]

Bad night for all but eminence and Crow.

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.   avg err   rmse
lisp   6.85    9.0
trzu   6.87    8.9
emin   6.95   10.2
cali   7.12    8.9
avg.   7.15    9.1
gold   7.30    9.6
shad   7.46    9.5
Crow   7.47    9.7
RyRi   7.47    9.6
vegas  7.80    9.4
sndi   7.89   10.2
.538   7.89   10.1
Rd11   8.35    9.6
Mike   8.53   10.4
ncs.   8.58   10.4
19re   9.47   11.2

We're at 11% of the season. Using current srs*.85, standings project thus:

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LAL   59      Mil   62
Uta   57      Bos   59
Phx   56      Tor   56
LAC   55      Mia   54
Den   50      Phl   53
Dal   46      Ind   41
OKC   41      Cle   39
Hou   41      Orl   37

SAS   41      Brk   32
Por   39      Atl   32
Min   33      Det   32
Sac   32      Was   31
NOP   30      Cha   28
GSW   23      Chi   28
Mem   21      NYK   21

Suns and Heat look like the real deal. Raps and Celtics don't mind their star defections. Cavs and Thunders are in the hunt. Bottom has dropped out for Dubs, Griz, Nix

Last place! Ack!

[Mike G]

But that's good. You are virtually guaranteed to have better luck in the future.

[Mike G]

Anyone have a CSV of everyone's projections?

This

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tm   Mike  Rd11  gold emin RyRi  ncs sndi trzu cali  shad  lisp Crow 538 vegas  avg  19re
Atl  35.2  38.0  27.2  29  29.8  29.4  25  29  27.6  33.4  27.2  25  28  33.9  29.7  35
Bos  42.6  44.1  49.4  44  49.1  46.7  46  48  52.0  48.2  50.2  54  46  49.0  47.9  45
Brk  41.2  39.6  36.7  38  41.0  37.7  36  36  41.8  43.4  38.5  40  38  42.3  39.2  41.5
Cha  25.6  34.7  26.2  28  25.2  32.3  28  24  28.5  24.2  26.5  29  26  21.7  27.7  40
Chi  36.7  40.8  39.3  36  37.7  36.7  36  37  37.5  33.3  38.4  34  37  36.9  37.0  31.5
Cle  36.7  31.9  23.1  24  21.9  22.9  21  21  21.7  24.2  23.2  15  21  22.5  23.9  30
Det  42.3  36.8  32.9  37  36.5  38.7  37  37  37.1  37.4  36.2  36  36  38.9  37.1  41
Ind  44.7  40.7  42.0  42  44.0  41.9  42  42  43.2  45.8  40.8  50  39  44.8  43.3  44.5
Mia  36.1  44.6  43.4  49  44.2  40.6  45  45  45.4  42.7  44.6  53  44  44.6  44.5  40
Mil  51.8  55.2  60.0  53  58.5  53.5  56  59  54.1  55.6  56.4  61  54  54.8  56.2  50.5
NYK  40.7  36.0  26.3  20  25.9  29.8  29  23  27.5  25.4  21.9  30  23  25.1  28.0  29
Orl  44.9  41.1  41.7  41  43.0  42.9  42  45  42.6  41.3  40.8  41  42  42.3  42.3  41.5
Phl  53.8  43.1  53.5  48  54.9  46.7  54  55  52.5  53.6  53.6  52  59  55.5  51.7  46
Tor  37.6  41.3  47.8  45  47.6  48.1  50  49  47.5  45.4  45.2  53  45  46.4  46.5  49.5
Was  28.3  39.0  30.0  32  28.8  35.5  34  29  31.4  28.7  33.3  31  32  23.9  31.8  36.5

Dal  40.6  41.1  45.5  41  42.1  37.2  39  47  43.2  42.2  45.7  41  44  43.4  42.1  37
Den  44.9  43.4  52.4  53  53.5  48.5  52  52  49.7  52.8  51.7  57  51  53.9  50.9  47.5
GSW  40.5  42.4  44.9  59  47.6  43.7  50  42  41.9  47.8  43.4  46  50  44.2  45.8  49
Hou  53.6  50.2  55.9  54  55.8  56.1  57  56  55.8  53.7  59.0  51  56  55.3  54.8  47
LAC  52.0  47.3  50.2  56  51.8  47.9  51  51  49.8  53.3  52.4  46  48  52.4  50.7  44.5
LAL  54.5  43.7  49.3  52  49.0  44.5  53  48  47.5  49.7  48.2  50  50  50.4  49.1  39
Mem  22.2  35.8  31.5  28  28.1  37.0  31  27  30.2  28.3  30.9  27  35  28.6  29.8  37
Min  36.5  37.8  39.2  40  37.7  40.1  41  40  36.4  38.1  41.0  30  43  37.0  38.1  38.5
NOP  39.8  38.6  43.6  36  41.2  47.6  41  38  40.9  38.9  41.6  37  43  35.9  40.4  37
OKC  29.0  38.5  37.5  44  35.7  44.2  39  38  35.6  34.6  39.3  33  36  35.7  37.4  45
Phx  35.8  41.1  29.6  32  30.5  34.5  30  32  35.4  31.2  35.2  32  36  30.6  33.3  30
Por  46.7  37.4  45.4  42  42.9  40.6  42  42  41.3  45.6  39.0  46  38  46.3  42.6  47
Sac  39.6  36.4  37.4  33  35.3  32.9  38  37  36.2  37.1  34.5  40  33  38.5  36.4  40
SAS  45.4  38.7  40.7  37  40.2  42.2  38  47  44.3  42.1  42.7  44  38  43.7  41.9  44.5
Uta  50.6  50.9  47.6  57  50.4  49.6  47  54  51.1  52.1  48.8  46  50  51.3  50.4  45.5

[Mike G]

Even ratcheting up to .86 of current srs, most everyone looks better overnight.

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.   avg err    rmse
emin    6.58   10.0
lisp    6.77    8.9
trzu    6.78    8.9
avg.    7.10    9.0
cali    7.18    8.9
gold    7.18    9.6
RyRi    7.38    9.6
shad    7.41    9.4
.538    7.55    9.8
sndi    7.59   10.1
Crow    7.74    9.9
vegas   7.82    9.4
Rd11    8.20    9.5
ncs.    8.47   10.3
Mike    8.72   10.5
19re    9.44   11.2

A few days ago, tarrazu led in rmse, straight avg (exponent = 1) and etc. Now it's a shuffle:

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exponent     lead
up to  1.16  emin
1.17 - 2.02  trzu
2.03 - 3.62  cali
3.63 and up  Rd11

Above exp = 2.25, eminence is worst.