Rookies 2019-20

[Mike G]

Ranked by eWins projected to the full 82, given current minutes and rates.

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e82    per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.4  Kendrick Nunn  Mia   32  .626   27.6   2.8   3.6   2.1   2.9   .2   1.57
5.9   Ja Morant     Mem   28  .577   23.3   4.3   6.1   2.1   6.5   .5   1.25
5.6   RJ Barrett    NYK   37  .484   17.0   6.1   3.2   1.5   3.0   .3    .91
5.2   Tyler Herro   Mia   32  .562   18.3   6.5   2.6    .9   2.8   .0    .96
4.9  PJ Washington  Cha   34  .667   16.3   7.3   1.2   1.3   2.4   .5    .85

4.7  Brandon Clarke Mem   23  .611   15.1   8.7   1.0   1.8   1.2  2.4   1.20
3.6  Rui Hachimura  Was   31  .490   14.6   7.0   1.2    .5   1.2   .2    .69
3.3  Eric Paschall  GSW   28  .643   15.9   3.8   2.0    .9   1.5   .6    .71
3.0   Coby White    Chi   23  .471   15.9   4.5   3.4   1.0   1.7   .0    .78
2.5  Bruno Fernando Atl   11  .619   16.3   8.9   3.4    .6   1.8  1.8   1.33

e82    per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.7   Chris Silva   Mia   10  .750   13.3  10.6   2.3   2.0   4.8  4.0   1.04
1.7   Nicolo Melli  NOP   14  .661   15.1   6.6   2.7    .4   2.5   .4    .71
1.6   Jaxson Hayes  NOP   16  .683   18.1   6.7   2.7   1.4    .7   .7   1.19
1.5  Nick. A-Walker NOP   14  .326    7.7   6.1   7.5   1.2   1.6   .0    .66
1.2  Adm. Schofield Was   12  .917   16.0   4.6    .6    .0    .0   .0    .74

1.0   Terence Davis Tor    8  .467    8.7   7.9   3.2   2.1    .7   .7    .75
1.0   Goga Bitadze  Ind   13  .545    9.8   9.4    .8    .0   1.7  4.3    .76
0.9  Grant Williams Bos   18  .434    7.8   5.0   2.5   1.5   1.5  1.1    .30
0.8  Darius Bazley  OkC   17  .625   11.2   6.8   1.0    .3   2.9   .6    .27
0.7 De'Andre Hunter Atl   27  .483   10.8   5.5   1.3   1.1   3.1   .6    .16

e82    per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
0.6   Terance Mann  LAC    4  .667    9.1  10.5  10.5   2.0   4.0   .0   1.41
0.5   Ky Bowman     GSW   15  .471    9.8   3.4   2.8   1.9   1.9   .0    .21
0.5   Cam Reddish   Atl   25  .277    5.4   6.8   3.1   2.4   3.0   .3    .13
0.5 Cameron Johnson Phx   13  .600   14.1   5.7    .7   1.2   1.9   .0    .36
0.5   Cody Martin   Cha    6  .444    6.5   6.0    .9   3.0    .0  1.0    .53

At 6.8% of the season, rookies project to total 65 eWins

[Crow]

Whoever backed Cam Reddish are not looking so good so far (the rookie class, Schlenk, certain draft sites). Of course still early but I think there is some signal there. I was comparatively very low on him.

Grant Williams not as hot as I expected. Size of utilization related? Haven't reviewed yet.

Paschall lasted to 41st for GMs? Pretty ridiculous.

[eminence]

Hmm, not sure what looks off for Williams, most of the stuff I've looked at for him looks pretty great so far, shot not falling, but even moderate improvement there will have him looking great overall (in a more limited role than some others of course).

[Crow]

Looked at my rookie rankings vs the GM picks. My ranking are much more positively correlated to BPM so far, though both are quite low right now. Still early, some haven't played. Will check again later.

[Mike G]

Grant Williams is listed as PF, but he doesn't seem to rebound much, nor does he score much at all; yet he has decent Stl-Blk-TO and is getting some minutes. Celts get killed on the boards, but they haven't been losing games from it.
He's 0-8 from the arc; Cam Reddish is 1-18. Maybe it's a confidence thing.

[Mike G]

Converting PER and BPM to win rates; averaging along with Win Shares and eWins; and projecting to 82 games, given current minutes per team game:

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82W     rookies      tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
4.68  PJ Washington  CHO   28   15.2   .092   0.1   1.03
4.66  Brandon Clarke MEM   19   22.1   .167   2.3    .89
4.43  Kendrick Nunn  MIA   29   14.4   .096  -1.3    .95
4.31  Terence Davis  TOR   16   17.0   .207   3.7   1.39
4.19  Eric Paschall  GSW   30   16.5   .088  -2.7    .73

3.98   Ja Morant     MEM   24   18.9   .056  -0.9   1.04
3.29   Tyler Herro   MIA   28   12.6   .081  -2.1    .65
3.20   Jaxson Hayes  NOP   17   16.9   .133   0.8    .78
3.02  Rui Hachimura  WAS   27   14.6   .054  -3.2    .71
2.54 Cameron Johnson PHO   17   13.6   .098  -0.3    .81

82W     rookies      tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
2.48   Chris Silva   MIA   10   18.4   .200   4.4    .75
2.27   Ky Bowman     GSW   24   12.5   .046  -2.9    .63
2.14   RJ Barrett    NYK   31   11.2  -.026  -3.5    .97
2.08 Matisse Thybulle PHI  15    9.5   .090   1.6    .69
1.95   Nicolò Melli  NOP   14   12.0   .078  -0.8    .88

1.90   Goga Bitadze  IND   10   14.5   .145   1.8    .71
1.66   Coby White    CHI   25   10.9   .008  -4.1    .71
1.30   Matt Thomas   TOR    7   13.1   .150   0.7    .85
1.28  Bruno Fernando ATL   13   13.4   .058  -1.3    .21
1.12  Jarrett Culver MIN   24    8.6  -.014  -4.1    .73

http://bkref.com/tiny/JwVwU
NBA averages are PER = 15, WS/48=.099, BPM=0.0, eW/484=1.00
Among rookies getting >20 mpg, negative wins are adjudged for Darius Garland (Cle), Cam Reddish (Atl) and Jordan Poole (GS).

Of the 4 metrics, eWins has the most favorable view of the rookies, and WS has the worst prognosis. The 82 game projections:
eW : 82.4 (with a mere 1.0 negative wins)
PER: 74.0
BPM: 54.3
WS: 46.7 (w 20 neg.)
The avg is 63.9, including 5.4 negative.
I'm not even sure what "negative wins" are.

[Crow]

Barrett 13th. Culver 20th. Still early but disappointing for high picks.

Culver with mostly horrible shooting, especially from FT line. Not doing much elsewhere in boxscore. Near neutral on raw on court and on / off and exactly neutral on 1 yr LAORAPM and LADRAPM though. That might be acceptable for a rookie, depending on standards.

Negative wins on winshares are negatives so big compared to average performance that they had to go negative on a linear scale. If WS was rescaled to replacement level it would still be possible. Negative is also possible on BPM and even PER probably. You note that it has happened on EW / 484. Perils of linear scales and using 0 or .1 as average performance.

[Mike G]

So eWins register as negative for some guys who play 2 mpg or less. Here are the main ones:

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rookie     tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Brazdeikis NYK   42   1.3  -.172  -13.4   -.14
Poirier    BOS   31   8.5   .026   -1.0   -.11
Cheatham   NOP   20  -3.5  -.139  -11.6   -.67

Another 7 have played 10-17 total minutes.
Negative wins seem to be below 9.25 PER or -5.25 BPM. As such, these players tend to look even lower in the other stats.

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"wins"     perW    WS   bpmW   eW    fRPM  pts
Brazdeikis -.12  -.15  -.13   -.01   -6.0   -5
Poirier    -.01   .02   .05   -.01   -5.8   -4
Cheatham   -.09  -.06  -.05   -.03   -8.8   -4

The final 2 columns are "faux RPM" which correlates with eWins and RPM; and the +/- points ensuing in the minutes played.
It's realistic to suppose that a few experimental minutes are given to marginal players, many of whom don't work out.

[Crow]

So Garland is shooting poorly from everywhere other than 3 pt land. Weak assist, high turnovers.

Worst on team LA-RAPM and O-RAPM. Virtually tied for worst on D-RAPM.

Pretty lousy looking pick by the insiders there.

Lots of bad picks, including 3-7.

Hayes off to best start of lottery picks by several metrics.

Samanic pretty weak in the G league. Bad shooting, few assists, high turnovers. Maybe he isn't going coast to coast or iso against weak competition any more?

In weak drafts, bigs may not disappoint as much as over-hyped, over-confident perimeter prancers. Clarke, Gafford, Bitadze doing pretty well to very well.

[Crow]

Grant Williams with lousy scoring efficiency, weak rebounding and high turnovers.

Reddish even worse scoring efficiency, almost as bad on turnovers, meh on rebounding.

Will either turn it around in any of these ways? Maybe.

[Dr Positivity]

Hawks 2019 draft

Hunter -0.013 WS/48, -5.1 BPM
Reddish -0.058 WS/48, -5.8 BPM

[Crow]

Schlenk not looking near as good as last spring. Don't know how hot the seat is but has to be very disppointing and troubling. Good for the tank if he is doing that and with consent / support. When things are this bad does that explanation fly?

[Crow]

Carson Edwards with the worst BPM among Celtics rookies. One of the worst LA-RAPM estimates in entire league.

[Crow]

Zion arrives.

[Mike G]

All Star Break!
PER and BPM are converted to "wins" equivalents, then averaged with Win Shares and eWins.
These avg "wins" are then projected to 82 games.
mpg are player minutes divided by team games. Players are projected to continue with mpg and rates to date.

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w/82   rookie        tm   mpg   e484    PER   WS/48   BPM
5.3  Brandon Clarke  Mem   19   1.00   21.8   .190    2.5
5.1   Ja Morant      Mem   27   1.02   18.4   .095   -0.4
4.1   Jaxson Hayes   NOP   17   1.06   18.2   .176    1.8
3.6   Terence Davis  Tor   17    .98   15.5   .150    1.6
3.0   PJ Washington  Cha   26    .90   12.3   .054   -1.4

3.0   Kendrick Nunn  Mia   28    .87   12.8   .051   -2.8
2.4 Matisse Thybulle Phl   17    .94    9.8   .092    1.9
2.2   Eric Paschall  GSW   24    .56   13.7   .049   -3.8
2.0  Cameron Johnson Phx   15    .89   11.9   .082   -0.5
1.8   Rui Hachimura  Was   16    .75   14.4   .063   -3.5

w/82   rookie        tm   mpg   e484    PER   WS/48   BPM
1.8   Tyler Herro    Mia   24    .65   11.6   .039   -3.4
1.6   Nicolò Melli   NOP   12    .79   12.0   .090   -0.5
1.6  Daniel Gafford  Chi    8    .64   17.1   .153    2.1
1.4  Zion Williamson NOP    5   1.03   25.4   .153    0.5
1.4   Grant Williams Bos   15    .43    8.7   .082   -0.1

1.2   Chris Silva    Mia    5    .63   17.2   .177    2.3
1.1 Jordan McLaughlin Min   7   1.09   14.8   .116   -2.0
1.1   Coby White     Chi   24    .69   10.1   .005   -4.4
1.0   Cody Martin    Cha   11    .67   10.9   .061   -2.1
1.0   Javonte Green  Bos    7    .59   13.0   .123   -0.5

w/82   rookie        tm   mpg   e484    PER   WS/48   BPM
1.0   RJ Barrett     NYK   25    .80   10.1  -.019   -4.3
.9   Jarrett Culver  Min   24    .73    9.1  -.012   -3.4
.9  De'Andre Hunter  Atl   30    .70    8.5  -.003   -4.4
.9   Kevin Porter    Cle   18    .42   10.8   .010   -3.4
.7   Matt Thomas     Tor    5    .72   13.2   .137   -0.9
.7  Garrison Mathews Was    4   1.22   14.1   .144   -1.1

Rookies project to total 58 "wins".