Fixing the Spurs

[Crow]

5 of 6 most used lineups negative, from mild to pretty bad. 10 of 11 most used pairs negative.

Biggest minute lineup from last season no longer working and used for just a few minutes per game anyway.

9 of the 10 best lineups from last season had Bertans, but traded.

The only change in starting lineup so far has been White for Murray but only in 2 games. I'd test more changes and unlikely to go back to the original.

The two best lineups used over 1 minute per game both have Gay and neither have Lyles.

L Walker given little opportunity to date. Doesn't appear ready from his first minutes but I'd try it some more to find out more.

Murray - White used for less than 7 minutes for season. That is brain-dead wrong, imo. Very small sample but fwiw that is the best performing pair the Spurs have. It may or may not be great but it definitely should be given full test to find out.

DeRozan, Aldridge and Forbes are either being used wrong or the wrong players period. DeRozan, negative on 10 of 10 most used pairs, moderate to worse. Probably unsalvageable. I'd trade. Always felt that way. No way I would have traded for him for anything, much less for Kawhi. Aldridge, 9 of 10 most used pairs negative. Stopped working. Should have traded. Not fully guaranteed next year. Forbes, 10 of 10 most used pairs bad to horrendous. Looked good / necessary because the shot design was so whack but it is not working. I'd use all 3 less and with more precision when used. Go with positive pairs mostly or only. Piut all 3 in trade discussions.

Probably should play Poltl more. 7 of 10 most used pairs positive. most from moderate to great. More Mills. 8 of 10 pairs positive. More Gay. 7 of 10 pairs positive.

Belinelli is more complicated. I'd have to study more before deciding for sure. But use for now while working on the plenty of other things to fix.

Want exact lineups and a full rotation? I could do that. Mills White Belinelli Gay looks like a promising core. With one (possibly two as necessary) of Poltl, Aldridge, DeRozan, possibly Murray. All good in very short use. So increase those tests by 5-10 times and soon.

'The weak start is on the players (some more than others) but definitely on coaching / management / analytics too.

[Crow]

Bounced back to White starting. Didn't work. Too many of the incumbents still there.

4 of the next 5 most used lineups negative too.

The exception? With the quad I liked above and Walker, who I wanted to have a chance. Will we see more of both (together or not)?

[Crow]

DeRozan to Magic or Raptors or anywhere else? Yes, please.

[Crow]

6 of 7 most used lineups negative, all but one of the negatives were clearly so.

New starting lineup did not work last night. Pop's tinkers avoided change to the 3 starters with the worst on and on / off numbers. Probably not going to achieve major change in results by stopping short of changing them. It did work last season in a very modest level of test. Maybe it could again.
I'd try Mills, Belinelli, Gay, Aldridge, Poltl and Mills, DeRozan, Gay, Aldridge, Poltl. One barely tried, the other I don't think used. Good sub-lineup numbers.

Winning on some bench lineups isn't going to be enough if the starters are performing so badly.

If Mills continues to start, there is no adequate excuse for not testing Murray - White.

Last season's data indicated Aldridge and Spurs were better with him at center than power forward. I'd do more of that. Or trade him. Mills, Forbes, DeRozan, Gay, Aldridge worked last season in a hundred and some minutes. No test this season. 110 other ideas tried instead. Not using this fairly proven lineup from last season sure looks like an oversight / mistake.


DeRozan has 8 of 10 most used 5 man lineups negative, 9 of 10 quads negative, 10 of 10 trios negative, 10 of 10 pairs negative. What did you need to see he doesn't fit here? Should trade both Aldridge and DeRozan. Not trading either would be really stubborn and wrong.

[Crow]

Mills, Belinelli, Gay, Poltl and variations for Poltl are about the only things working. Used more last game and effectively but could be used even more.

[Dr Positivity]

Blow it up. Derozan is like -19 per 100 this season for a reason and is nothing but this generation's Jerry Stackhouse (Pistons and Raptors both took off without them). Aldridge is more playable than him, but is also 34.

[Crow]

DeRozan is probably more likely to just walk in summer than be traded but I'd be trying for a trade.

[Mike G]

Another team with a strong 2nd unit -- Gay, Mills, White, Poeltl, Belinelli -- who are almost all positive on court. The starters are all -6 to -9.
Belinelli is +7 on court with +14.5 on-off. This in spite of shooting .386, and he does almost nothing else. Should he play a lot more? Or does he just have inflated on/off thanks to the rest of the 2nd team?

The flip side of course is that DeRozan, LA, and Murray could be carrying Lyles and Forbes.

[Crow]

No wins yet against a good team. A couple of chances in next week, including tonight.

[Crow]

They probably won't completely blow it up.

While trade attention is heaviest with DeRozan and Aldridge, they should be willing to consider trading almost anyone and the more the better probably. I'd probably trade others before Mills, White, Murray, Gay, Poltl but I wouldn't rule out trading them.

Will Pop retire? Will he "step back temporarily" and let Duncan (and / or Hammon) coach a string of games? It is hard to see this continuing without some change.

Realistically playoff chances could be dead in 1-2 weeks if not already.

[Crow]

9 of most used 11 lineups negative. Won with Gay in starting lineup last game but will it last or be enough?

[Crow]

9 of most used 11 lineups negative. Won with Gay in starting lineup last game but will it last or be enough? Probably not on one or both but try it. Even more clear that the bench quad discussed above is the main thing working for season. Pretty strong case in last game for playing one group of players or other as complete or mostly complete platoons.

[Crow]

75% of 20 most used player pairs are negative. DeRozan is in one of them barely positive; Aldridge, none.

Most used 5 man lineups are in better shape but still pretty meh. Best lineup still only getting tiny minutes.

Garbage shot selection and mildly below average results. No chance of being good with that and awful defense.

Should have changed dramatically this season. Will thry next season?

[Crow]

No playing contribution out of this draft, the poor Gay and Carroll deals, the Morris renege, no trades of DeRozan and Aldridge, or Forbes / others.

I'd say it was a quite bad 1st year for the new GM... and his bosses.

No correction of lineup and shot distribution issues. Player development lags.

About as bad as imaginable or more so.

[Crow]

Probably should have given Meth more run. Maybe next time.