2019-20 team win projection contest

[Rd11490]

Anyone have a CSV of everyone's projections?

This

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tm   Mike  Rd11  gold emin RyRi  ncs sndi trzu cali  shad  lisp Crow 538 vegas  avg  19re
Atl  35.2  38.0  27.2  29  29.8  29.4  25  29  27.6  33.4  27.2  25  28  33.9  29.7  35
Bos  42.6  44.1  49.4  44  49.1  46.7  46  48  52.0  48.2  50.2  54  46  49.0  47.9  45
Brk  41.2  39.6  36.7  38  41.0  37.7  36  36  41.8  43.4  38.5  40  38  42.3  39.2  41.5
Cha  25.6  34.7  26.2  28  25.2  32.3  28  24  28.5  24.2  26.5  29  26  21.7  27.7  40
Chi  36.7  40.8  39.3  36  37.7  36.7  36  37  37.5  33.3  38.4  34  37  36.9  37.0  31.5
Cle  36.7  31.9  23.1  24  21.9  22.9  21  21  21.7  24.2  23.2  15  21  22.5  23.9  30
Det  42.3  36.8  32.9  37  36.5  38.7  37  37  37.1  37.4  36.2  36  36  38.9  37.1  41
Ind  44.7  40.7  42.0  42  44.0  41.9  42  42  43.2  45.8  40.8  50  39  44.8  43.3  44.5
Mia  36.1  44.6  43.4  49  44.2  40.6  45  45  45.4  42.7  44.6  53  44  44.6  44.5  40
Mil  51.8  55.2  60.0  53  58.5  53.5  56  59  54.1  55.6  56.4  61  54  54.8  56.2  50.5
NYK  40.7  36.0  26.3  20  25.9  29.8  29  23  27.5  25.4  21.9  30  23  25.1  28.0  29
Orl  44.9  41.1  41.7  41  43.0  42.9  42  45  42.6  41.3  40.8  41  42  42.3  42.3  41.5
Phl  53.8  43.1  53.5  48  54.9  46.7  54  55  52.5  53.6  53.6  52  59  55.5  51.7  46
Tor  37.6  41.3  47.8  45  47.6  48.1  50  49  47.5  45.4  45.2  53  45  46.4  46.5  49.5
Was  28.3  39.0  30.0  32  28.8  35.5  34  29  31.4  28.7  33.3  31  32  23.9  31.8  36.5

Dal  40.6  41.1  45.5  41  42.1  37.2  39  47  43.2  42.2  45.7  41  44  43.4  42.1  37
Den  44.9  43.4  52.4  53  53.5  48.5  52  52  49.7  52.8  51.7  57  51  53.9  50.9  47.5
GSW  40.5  42.4  44.9  59  47.6  43.7  50  42  41.9  47.8  43.4  46  50  44.2  45.8  49
Hou  53.6  50.2  55.9  54  55.8  56.1  57  56  55.8  53.7  59.0  51  56  55.3  54.8  47
LAC  52.0  47.3  50.2  56  51.8  47.9  51  51  49.8  53.3  52.4  46  48  52.4  50.7  44.5
LAL  54.5  43.7  49.3  52  49.0  44.5  53  48  47.5  49.7  48.2  50  50  50.4  49.1  39
Mem  22.2  35.8  31.5  28  28.1  37.0  31  27  30.2  28.3  30.9  27  35  28.6  29.8  37
Min  36.5  37.8  39.2  40  37.7  40.1  41  40  36.4  38.1  41.0  30  43  37.0  38.1  38.5
NOP  39.8  38.6  43.6  36  41.2  47.6  41  38  40.9  38.9  41.6  37  43  35.9  40.4  37
OKC  29.0  38.5  37.5  44  35.7  44.2  39  38  35.6  34.6  39.3  33  36  35.7  37.4  45
Phx  35.8  41.1  29.6  32  30.5  34.5  30  32  35.4  31.2  35.2  32  36  30.6  33.3  30
Por  46.7  37.4  45.4  42  42.9  40.6  42  42  41.3  45.6  39.0  46  38  46.3  42.6  47
Sac  39.6  36.4  37.4  33  35.3  32.9  38  37  36.2  37.1  34.5  40  33  38.5  36.4  40
SAS  45.4  38.7  40.7  37  40.2  42.2  38  47  44.3  42.1  42.7  44  38  43.7  41.9  44.5
Uta  50.6  50.9  47.6  57  50.4  49.6  47  54  51.1  52.1  48.8  46  50  51.3  50.4  45.5

Thanks!

[Mike G]

At this point, I'm taking the current SRS at full strength; and the b-r.com projections; and averaging them.
Current SRS and W/L represent what teams have done thus far; b-r.com is considering future schedule and heavily regressing them. So the avg should have the most information IMO.

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.   avg err  rmse
lisp   6.42   8.5
emin   6.46   9.9
trzu   6.48   8.6
avg.   6.53   8.5
cali   6.58   8.4
shad   6.76   9.0
RyRi   6.86   9.2
gold   6.90   9.2
Crow   7.03   9.6
.538   7.03   9.4
Rd11   7.05   8.5
sndi   7.09   9.6
vegas  7.15   9.1
ncs.   7.76   9.6
Mike   7.96   9.7

The two inputs should converge as the season goes on.
Errors are relative to these projections:

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LAL   60      Mil   60
Uta   54      Bos   57
Phx   53      Mia   54
LAC   52      Tor   54
Den   47      Phl   48
Dal   45      Ind   46
Hou   43      Orl   40
Min   42      Cle   40

OKC   36      Atl   35
Por   35      Brk   34
SAS   35      Det   33
Sac   33      Was   33
NOP   29      Chi   32
Mem   27      Cha   29
GSW   22      NYK   20

The season is 13% completed.
Both east and west now have 8 clear playoff contenders and 7 non-contenders, with one doormat team.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Top 16 teams all given at least 63% chance of a playoff berth. All below the break are <23%

[eminence]

Interesting that they have the Cavs at such a high playoff %. Doubt that one holds.

[Mike G]

Six guys from last year's Cavs total 73% of team minutes this year; up from 55% in 2018-19

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Cavs 19-20  mpg   TS%   O/D    PER   WS/48  BPM 1819 mpg  TS%   O/D   PER   WS/48  BPM
Thompson C   34  .565   1.18   23.7  .215   5.6      15  .551  1.01   18.4  .105   0.3
Love    PF   33  .626   1.11   21.3  .176   3.7       7  .561   .98   19.5  .106  -1.7
Sexton  PG   31  .539    .95   15.1  .075  -2.0      32  .520   .83   12.0 -.011  -5.2
Osman   SF   31  .532    .96    9.2  .063   0.0      30  .536   .90   11.5  .029  -2.1
Nance   C-F  25  .609   1.13   16.1  .147   2.2      22  .583  1.07   18.6  .131   4.0
Clarkson SG  23  .558   1.04   20.5  .146   1.3      27  .539   .90   16.8  .039  -2.0
. total     176                                     132               

mpg are minutes per team game.
O/D is ORtg/DRtg. All are up significantly. Most all other numbers are also up, some by a lot.
Barring injuries, they look like the real deal. TT should cool off, but rookies Garland and Porter should pick up some.
Even below-avg Sexton and Osman are hella better than last year.

[Crow]

Cavs could be among my biggest win projection misses. I meant no disrespect to the new coach but I did not think highly of the players and thought effort might lag. Still a long time to April.

[Mike G]

Yeah, from your guess of 15 wins to my 37 is the biggest spread on the board.
Kevin Pelton figured a lot more minutes from Thompson and Love, and that was the biggest suggestion for improvement. They won 19 last year, and all but 2 of our 12 figured them for 24 or fewer this year.

They were the 7th youngest team last year at 25.2 years avg. Same age again this year. Love is 31, Thompson 28.

[Mike G]

Virtually everyone improves, some a lot more.

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.  avg err   rmse
avg.   6.24   8.4
cali   6.26   8.2

trzu   6.39   8.6
lisp   6.43   8.4
emin   6.44   9.9

shad   6.55   9.0
RyRi   6.64   9.1
Crow   6.69   9.3
.538   6.75   9.3
gold   6.76   9.0
Rd11   6.79   8.3
sndi   6.83   9.4

vegas  6.98   9.0
. . .
ncs.   7.39   9.4
. . .
Mike   7.86   9.6

Like the entity known as avg, caliban did not have the highest or lowest prediction for any team. He does currently have the best guess (or tied) on Cha, Dal, LAC, and OKC; worst on none (guaranteed).
I am now looking best on 3, worst on 7, and worse than avg on at least 18.

update Nov. 16 -- abrupt upheaval in the ranks

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.  avg err   rmse
Rd11   5.91   7.6
avg.   5.92   8.0
cali   6.01   7.8
lisp   6.09   8.0
emin   6.39   9.5
trzu   6.41   8.4
gold   6.44   8.7
sndi   6.47   9.0
RyRi   6.47   8.8
shad   6.50   8.8
.538   6.60   8.9
Crow   6.66   9.1
ncs.   6.81   8.8
vegas  6.82   8.9
Mike   7.75   9.5

The avg improvement today is .028

Min lost big to Was, and OKC beat Phl, so the West has another contender:

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LAL   59      Mil   60
Phx   54      Bos   56
Uta   51      Mia   55
LAC   49      Tor   54
Hou   47      Phl   45
Den   47      Ind   45
Dal   43      Orl   40
OKC   39      Cle   39

Min   39      Was   36
Por   35      Brk   34
SAS   35      Atl   34
Sac   34      Chi   33
NOP   33      Det   32
Mem   29      Cha   29
GSW   23      NYK   22

update Nov 17

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.90   7.8
cali   6.01   7.8
avg.   6.11   8.0
emin   6.19   9.4
Rd11   6.31   7.9
trzu   6.34   8.3
gold   6.40   8.6
sndi   6.54   9.0
RyRi   6.63   8.8
.538   6.66   8.9
Crow   6.75   9.1
shad   6.81   8.8
ncs.   7.00   8.9
vegas  7.14   9.0
Mike   8.06   9.7

update Nov 20

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.   avg err  rmse
lisp   5.69   7.2
avg.   5.78   7.4
gold   5.84   7.8
cali   5.87   7.2
sndi   6.01   8.0
trzu   6.03   7.6
Crow   6.20   8.2
emin   6.22   8.9
RyRi   6.26   8.0
shad   6.34   8.3
Rd11   6.52   8.0
.538   6.60   8.3
vegas  6.74   8.4
ncs.   6.85   8.4
Mike   7.68   9.4

Relative to our avg prediction, here's how teams are projecting:

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16   Phx     10   Mia
10   LAL     10   Cle
+3   Dal      9   Tor
+3   LAC      9   Bos
+3   OKC      6   Mil
+1   Sac      4   Was
+0   Min      2   Ind
-1   Uta      0   Cha
-2   Hou     -2   Orl
-3   Den     -3   Atl
-5   Mem     -3   NYK
-5   NOP     -5   Det
-9   SAS     -6   Chi
-10  Por     -6   Phl
-21  GSW     -7   Brk

west averages 41.6 and east 40.4

[caliban]

Nice of you to keep updating Mike G.

Added a couple of other projections I found on twitter that might be of interest. PM me if I've fat fingered your numbers. Not sure this is Pelton's last RPM projection, plz confirm.


Tight race so far. Think it was around this time tarrazu took the 1st spot and ran away with it last year.

Top 4 in the east looks very good.

PHX, MIA, TOR and D. Howard biggest positive surprises

Spurs; Is this the year?



https://i.imgur.com/WMRIiRy.png (better img quality)

[dtkavana]

Hi guys,

I realize i am late to the party here, but was wondering if we could add my preseason projections into the contest. I posted them to my site prior to the season -> http://craftednba.com/projections




Thanks

[Crow]

Last season 6 teams ended up over 64% win. Right now there are 11. I think the number above 64% probably declines by 1-2. by end of season Last season 9 at or below 40% win. Currently 13. Number below 40% might decline by 2-3 or may stay bout the same, The number of teams in the middle is pretty small.

How much regression to the mean will occur? I dunno. Hopefully less than some expected / modeled. I picked 9 at or over 50 wins. More than the current leaders. I picked 8 at 31 or less wins. Again, more the current leaders. The tails may tend to work to my advantage. The middle? I dunno. I predicted only 8 to end up between 45-35 wins. That number is pretty close to the current total but may or may not be close to the ending number. Of course which teams are where matters.

[Mike G]

I added bbstats, Kevin Pelton, and dtkavana to the contest. Any objections?

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.93   7.6
avg.   6.02   7.9
gold   6.03   8.1
cali   6.08   7.6
trzu   6.11   7.9
bbst   6.20   7.8
sndi   6.31   8.5
RyRi   6.34   8.4
Crow   6.36   8.4
KPel   6.47   8.2
shad   6.50   8.7
emin   6.54   9.5
Rd11   6.66   8.4
vegas  6.86   8.7
.538   7.03   8.7
dtka   7.05   8.9
ncs.   7.25   8.9
Mike   7.99   9.9

caliban's table has some different numbers for 538, than what Crow posted earlier. GS is down, Den is up... I haven't checked them all, but they are a couple wins over 1230.

update Nov. 24

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.34   7.0
bbst   5.62   7.1
avg.   5.65   7.4
gold   5.66   7.6
trzu   5.73   7.4
cali   5.79   7.1
sndi   5.81   8.1
Crow   5.82   8.1
RyRi   5.89   7.9
shad   6.07   8.3
emin   6.08   9.2
KPel   6.33   7.8
.538   6.45   8.0
dtka   6.50   8.3
vegas  6.54   8.3
Rd11   6.70   8.3
ncs.   6.98   8.5
Mike   8.00   9.6

It's the best group average for the season and also the biggest lead by the leader.

[shadow]

Yeah, I also noticed some discrepancies between my projections and the ones in caliban's table (e.g. MIL 45.6 should be 55.6). He may want to double check them against the aggregate list posted by Mike G. Mine were all correct in Mike's post, linked below:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9715&start=90#p35659

[Mike G]

We're now looking at these projected win totals:

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LAL   58      Mil   62
LAC   56      Tor   60
Dal   56      Bos   53
Hou   54      Mia   53
Den   53      Phl   50
Uta   47      Ind   48
Phx   43      Orl   39
OKC   38      Brk   38

Min   38      Det   34
Por   37      Was   34
Sac   36      Chi   29
NOP   34      Cle   29
SAS   30      Cha   26
Mem   27      NYK   23
GSW   22      Atl   23

Relative to those, our predictions rank like this:

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.34   7.1
gold   5.63   7.5
avg.   5.67   7.5
Crow   5.67   7.8
trzu   5.72   7.3
bbst   5.74   7.3
sndi   5.78   8.0
cali   5.80   7.2
RyRi   5.90   7.8
emin   5.97   9.2
shad   5.99   8.1
KPel   6.08   7.9
vegas  6.42   8.0
.538   6.46   8.2
dtka   6.62   8.5
Rd11   7.27   9.1
ncs.   7.35   8.8
Mike   8.17   9.9

The Spurs' free-fall is a drag on everyone, behind only the Dubs' collapse.
Raps and Mavs lead the over-achiever errors.

Seeming best/worst (or tied) guesses at this time:

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. x .     best     - worst
lisp   Cha,Orl,Was - Hou,Ind 
gold   Cha,Det,Den - Phx
Crow  Atl,Bos,Ind,Mia,Mil,Phl,Tor,Mem
.                  - Cle,LAC,Min,Por
trzu   NYK,Dal,Mem,OKC - SAS
bbst   NYK,Den     - Ind
sndi   Atl,Was,Uta - Phx
cali   Sac         - 
RyRi   Min         - Was
emin   Brk,Orl,Phl,Den,Hou,LAC,NOP
.                  - GSW,Uta
shad   Chi,Ind,Den,Hou,Min - Brk,Was
KPel   Cle,Hou,Uta - Mil,Orl
dtka   NYK,OKC     - NOP,Sac
Rd11   Min,OKC,Phx,Por,Sac 
.           - Atl,Cha,Chi,Ind,Was,LAL
ncs.   Brk,Uta     - Dal,LAL,Mem,NOP
Mike   GSW,Hou,LAL 
.   - Bos,Det,Mia,NYK,Tor,Was,OKC,Por

[Crow]

I am closest (or tied) on more teams than anyone. Surprisingly to me, almost all in East. Eminence in 2nd on this.

[Crow]

Eminence more conference balanced.