1. Get outplayed / outproduced at forward positions.
2. Get outrebounded, especially on defensive glass.
3. Foul too much.
4. Get unclear about what pace they want to play at.
5. Pick the wrong starting lineup and / or not use it enough.
6. Pick the wrong next 5 lineups and / or not use them enough.
7. Use hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of dink lineups, limiting learning on key lineups for playoffs.
8. Not fixing what went wrong with Capela in last playoffs.
9. Not fitting Westbrook enough into Rockets system and /or not changing Rockets system enough to yield best return from Westbrook.
10. Playing Eric Gordon in 3 guard lineups that don't include both Harden & Westbrook.
11. Using Gerald Green too much / wrong.
12. Not figuring out the defensive scheme or implementing it effectively.
13. Having team 3pt fg% fall below league average.
14. Westbrook shooting horribly from line again and pulling team ft% down closer to average.
15. Westbrook-Harden friction. Westbrook-D'Antoni friction. Westbrook-Capela friction. Westbrook - Rivers friction.
16. Slowdown of Tucker at 34. Probably won't happen, but might.
17. Injuries.
18. Not resting Westbrook & Harden enough for playoffs.
19. The relationship between coach and owner/ management.
20. Being overconfident.
21. The quality and quantity of the assistant coaching staff.
"Could".
Many things could go right too. One list will offset the other in some proportion.
Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets
Where did the several responses to this thread go?
Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets
Update:
1. Get outplayed / outproduced at forward positions. Check and check.
2. Get outrebounded, especially on defensive glass. Nope.
3. Foul too much. Nope.
4. Get unclear about what pace they want to play at. Nope.
5. Pick the wrong starting lineup and / or not use it enough. Nope and maybe depending on your standards.
6. Pick the wrong next 5 lineups and / or not use them enough. Nope.
7. Use hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of dink lineups, limiting learning on key lineups for playoffs. Yep. 192 used and only 2 over 2 minutes per game.
8. Not fixing what went wrong with Capela in last playoffs. He has been better than last playoffs but not as good as last regular season.
9. They changed pace for Westbrook and they'll take their current record but his stats are down and no he doesn't really fit.
10. Eric Gordon in 3 guard lineups with Harden & Westbrook have been bad to horrendous.
11. Gerald Green not available.
12. Not figuring out the defensive scheme or implementing it effectively. Better than early but currently stalled at average.
13. Having team 3pt fg% fall below league average. Check. 23rd.
14. Westbrook back to 78% from line.
15. Westbrook-Harden friction. Westbrook-D'Antoni friction. Westbrook-Capela friction. Westbrook - Rivers friction. Nope. Not yet to my knowledge.
16. Slowdown of Tucker at 34. I think it was looking that way early but not now.
17. Injuries? Mainly Gordon.
18. Not resting Westbrook & Harden enough for playoffs. Yes, imo.
19. The relationship between coach and owner/ management. Haven't heard anything recently.
20. Being overconfident. Probably.
21. The quality and quantity of the assistant coaching staff. Hard to say.
So a bit more than 1/3rd of the possible concerns appear to be in play.
1. Get outplayed / outproduced at forward positions. Check and check.
2. Get outrebounded, especially on defensive glass. Nope.
3. Foul too much. Nope.
4. Get unclear about what pace they want to play at. Nope.
5. Pick the wrong starting lineup and / or not use it enough. Nope and maybe depending on your standards.
6. Pick the wrong next 5 lineups and / or not use them enough. Nope.
7. Use hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of dink lineups, limiting learning on key lineups for playoffs. Yep. 192 used and only 2 over 2 minutes per game.
8. Not fixing what went wrong with Capela in last playoffs. He has been better than last playoffs but not as good as last regular season.
9. They changed pace for Westbrook and they'll take their current record but his stats are down and no he doesn't really fit.
10. Eric Gordon in 3 guard lineups with Harden & Westbrook have been bad to horrendous.
11. Gerald Green not available.
12. Not figuring out the defensive scheme or implementing it effectively. Better than early but currently stalled at average.
13. Having team 3pt fg% fall below league average. Check. 23rd.
14. Westbrook back to 78% from line.
15. Westbrook-Harden friction. Westbrook-D'Antoni friction. Westbrook-Capela friction. Westbrook - Rivers friction. Nope. Not yet to my knowledge.
16. Slowdown of Tucker at 34. I think it was looking that way early but not now.
17. Injuries? Mainly Gordon.
18. Not resting Westbrook & Harden enough for playoffs. Yes, imo.
19. The relationship between coach and owner/ management. Haven't heard anything recently.
20. Being overconfident. Probably.
21. The quality and quantity of the assistant coaching staff. Hard to say.
So a bit more than 1/3rd of the possible concerns appear to be in play.
Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets
At factor level they are pretty similar to last season. The pace change may or may not matter. As is, a first or second round loss seems more likely than greater advancement.
Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets
Tucker's stats mostly cratering month to month. Awful shooting / scoring efficiency.
Getting massively outperformed from PF position (in part because of guard bias).
Defensive rebounding is weak. Fouling is still less than average but barely.
Starting lineup is good. Usage is typical but too little. 3rd to 6th most used lineups from neutral to terrible.
Getting massively outperformed from PF position (in part because of guard bias).
Defensive rebounding is weak. Fouling is still less than average but barely.
Starting lineup is good. Usage is typical but too little. 3rd to 6th most used lineups from neutral to terrible.
Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets
Westbrook with 57% TS% in January but 26% from 3. 63% FT% after 90% in December. Settled in on 34% usage. 30 pts / gm in January but just plus 0.2 pts on the court plus minus. Good and not. Where does it go?
Harden with a wretched month from field, saved somewhat by FT shooting but -4 plus minus. Some grumbling...
Harden with a wretched month from field, saved somewhat by FT shooting but -4 plus minus. Some grumbling...
Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets
Looking at some win - loss data, Rockets do worst against good teams who shoot well and hold their own on net ftas. So they might have some difficulty in playoffs against Mavs, Thunder, Jazz. Losing records in regular season against the first two. No games against Jazz yet.
Might have better prospects against Nuggets and Clippers, using this analytic approach.
Sometimes you can pick your opponent with a bit of effort.
Might have better prospects against Nuggets and Clippers, using this analytic approach.
Sometimes you can pick your opponent with a bit of effort.
Re: Things that could go wrong next season for Rockets
3-6 so far in last 9 games.
3ptas dropping every month from 48 / gm in October to under 40 in January.
Only 2 of 6 most used lineups are meaningfully above neutral.
Most big minute players are good but only a handful of pairs including McElmore are performing very good or great.
3ptas dropping every month from 48 / gm in October to under 40 in January.
Only 2 of 6 most used lineups are meaningfully above neutral.
Most big minute players are good but only a handful of pairs including McElmore are performing very good or great.
Re: Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Rockets 7-6 when Westbrook shoot 25 plus fgas. 22-12 when he shot less.
Re: Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Capela's boxscore stats look alright. But the team results with him on the court have been very bad in January.
The good pairs in January involve Gordon, House, Tucker, Westbrook, Rivers. None of the good pairs involve Harden. His shooting in January has been terrible.
The good pairs in January involve Gordon, House, Tucker, Westbrook, Rivers. None of the good pairs involve Harden. His shooting in January has been terrible.
Re: Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Bye bye Clint. Probably even more Moreyball and D'Antoni offense without enough defense. But probably an interesting spectacle whichever way the results go.
Re: Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Average number of playoff games won per season of the Morey era is 3. Per playoff appearance, 4. 4-8 in 2 conference finals.
Make conference finals this season?
Somebody I assume has calculated it but I didnt find it tonight. I assume it is under 30% and perhaps well below that.
Make conference finals this season?
Somebody I assume has calculated it but I didnt find it tonight. I assume it is under 30% and perhaps well below that.
Re: Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Add Jeff Green and Demarre Carroll ?
Re: Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Rockets have lots of interior options now. Mostly relatively short but different looks.
Doesn't appear that they prioritized defending A Davis or Jokic but we'll have to wait n see if they play them and what happens.
Doesn't appear that they prioritized defending A Davis or Jokic but we'll have to wait n see if they play them and what happens.
Re: Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets
Rockets 3ptas per game down slightly yr to yr. Opponent 3ptas way up. Not near as high as Rockets of course but slightly more accurate. A thing that could go wrong for Rockets is another team shooting the 3 a lot and better than them. Using the example against them. Might have been a good strategy that didn't seize the moment fast enough, well enough.