RPM estimates

[Crow]

At this time, 19 teams have a player in the top 40. Bucks have 5. Clippers and Jazz 4. Nuggets and Raptors 3. Celtics, Mavs, Lakers, Thunder, Blazers, Sixers 2. Heat 1. Orlando, Detroit and Phoenix are among the better but still middling teams without one.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/1

Schroder, T Davis, DiVincenzo, Caruso and D Melton are the highest surprises.

Only 7 of the top 40 are true inside players.

Bojan Bogdanovic bucked convention and improved by almost 3 points after the move from Pacers.

Shaquille Harrison might be a decent pickup target / flyer guess, especially for a middling to bad team.

Beal, Draymond Green and Batum (and Parsons)are the highest paid players with an estimate worse than -1. Love and Aldridge almost qualify. Rozier and E Turner are not quite so high on salary but they are still disappointments.

Ja Morant at 163. Kuzma 206. Hield 226. B Griffin 232. DeRozan 269. Conley 298. Jaren Jackson Jr. 348.

LeVert 373. (Heist? https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/2 ... r-Brooklyn Could end up as one the reasons they don't ever mount a serious contention.) Garbage shooting / scoring efficiencies. Worse month to month. Not that much else.

[Dr Positivity]

Biggest positive surprise would be Schroeder, I thought he was headed towards a non analytics friendly gunner type career before this year

Anthony Davis is only 49th in the league - one spot behind Kanter

D Graham is 34th overall.

Post Grunfield era Wizards seemed to have made some decent small moves in Bertans and Bonga, Wagner’s is not as good

[Dr Positivity]

Kawhi’s DRPM and defensive on/off look more like his DPOY years than 2017 and 2019 so far.

[Crow]

Good points on Kawhi. Aided in these metrics by being on a weaker team? and / or used in a way that highlighted / maxed him better? And the health angle is a possible contributing explanation too. Randomness in opponent shooting luck on /off might be a factor too, though I think the estimate of luck impact can be taken far.

[Crow]

Still can't sort on Player name or team. Finding guys by position is still difficult and slow. I turn to RAPM & factors of it more and more. For convenience at least.

[Mike G]

Is that true even if you pay?
Where do you find up to date rapm?

[Crow]

I doubt ESPN insider changes the RPM page functionality. They've blown off my suggestions for these changes for years and never said it was available at Insider. Not enough reason for Insider for me. Draft hype for LaMelo Ball also bugs me a lot.

RAPM & factors updated pretty frequently (weekly?)
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=1109440799

[Crow]

RPM method was changed recently to shift weight more toward boxscore. Will want to hear more. Eventually.

Only 9 guys estimated plus 3 or over. Seems like less than before.

Zion is up to 11th on ORPM, 26th overall.

C Paul at +2.8. Dragic at 1.1. Nunn, 0. How much difference could that possible trade for him have made in playoffs?

C Wood estimated at 28th highest. Will he get paid that way? Almost certainly not. Teams will try for discount.

D Russell 38th. Wiggins 71st.

Gary Payton II, 72nd.

B Clarke, 42nd. Major goof for Presti to trade him away. Bazley in bottom 6%.

A Simons, the big coup for Oshley / Blazers? Lowest estimate in league. Anthony a success story? Debatable. Almost bottom 10% by RPM.

Porter and Garland take 3rd and 4th lowest estimates. What drafting by Cavs. Sexton surges to 361.

Clarkson 48th.

Adebayo, 81st. D Mitchell 85th.

Marcus Smart, 105. Hayward, 114.

Draymond, 185.

LeVert, 211.

Conley, 233. Horford, 268.

DeRozan, 369.

Michael Porter, Jr, 439.

[Crow]

Media darling Ja Morant moves up from 163rd 5 weeks ago to... 145th now. Barely positive. Good for a rookie; but as is pretty usual, RPM trails the hype.

Jaren Jackson Jr. goes from 348 to 336.

Anthony recovers to 12th.

[Dr Positivity]

I believe Lowry had a big positive bump. If I remembered correctly his RPM had been looking only ok this year for his standards, now he is back to 10th in the league. Gasol fell a lot for centers (he is now 21st for centers, I think he had been top 5) and Ibaka rates as good in RPM at now 9th for centers after seemingly many years of being in the 20s or 30s. Despite BPM 2.0 weakening Westbrook's MVP season, he appears to have done great in his update as he is 7th in the league and 1st for PGs

The numbers are strangely low. 5th in the league in 2020 is Kawhi's 3.87, which would've only been 24th in 2019. 10th in the league is 2.9 in 2020, 10th was 5.08 in 2019. A 2.9 would've gotten you 33rd/34th in the league in 2019. 50th in the league in 2020 is 1.43, 50th in 2019 was 2.04. 1.43 would've made you 81st in the league in 2019.

[DSMok1]

I believe Lowry had a big positive bump. If I remembered correctly his RPM had been looking only ok this year for his standards, now he is back to 10th in the league. Gasol fell a lot for centers (he is now 21st for centers, I think he had been top 5) and Ibaka rates as good in RPM at now 9th for centers after seemingly many years of being in the 20s or 30s. Despite BPM 2.0 weakening Westbrook's MVP season, he appears to have done great in his update as he is 7th in the league and 1st for PGs

The numbers are strangely low. 5th in the league in 2020 is Kawhi's 3.87, which would've only been 24th in 2019. 10th in the league is 2.9 in 2020, 10th was 5.08 in 2019. A 2.9 would've gotten you 33rd/34th in the league in 2019. 50th in the league in 2020 is 1.43, 50th in 2019 was 2.04. 1.43 would've made you 81st in the league in 2019.

On twitter, Steve Illardi (who assisted in the development of the original RPM) was questioning what has happened with the new RPM update, stating things appear odd. There were also issues with the RPM update before this season. It's challenging to know, with a black box metric, what might be going on with the calculations.



On another note, someone recently developed their own version of a RPM-style metric. It is located at https://dunksandthrees.com/epm . Honestly, I think I'd take it over ESPN's RPM at the moment.

[Crow]

It would be helpful to get more answers to the questions about RPM that Steve, myself and others have raised.

More RPMS, RAPMs. RAPM and on / off informed "Boxscore metrics" is probably a good thing with active comparison and hopefully producer level dialogue.

Will there ever be an all in one metric panel of producers at Sloan or elsewhere 9with that focus? The list of invitees changes / lengthens but no such focused and detailed panel occurs. Occasional review articles. Academic and web. More useful dialogue to occur. If not on a big stage, perhaps here.

[Italian Stallion]

RPM method was changed recently to shift weight more toward boxscore. Will want to hear more. Eventually.

I hated this idea. I've since stopped looking at the data.

To me, the very reason for using various forms of on/off, adjusted on/off, RPM data is to try to capture the positive/negative value of a player that is NOT in the standard boxscore. By increasing the percentage of the rating coming from the boxscore, you may bring the rating more in line with conventional wisdom and take out some of the year to noise, but imo you are defeating the purpose of the approach. I'd way rather look at a purer form of adjusted on/off data for several years to reduce noise than add in the boxscore. Granted, there are issues related to player development and injuries (both positive and negative) when looking at multi year data, but I can subjectively adjust my thinking for those things.

[Italian Stallion]

Still can't sort on Player name or team. Finding guys by position is still difficult and slow. I turn to RAPM & factors of it more and more. For convenience at least.

That's a major pain and it should be a relatively easy fix.

Sometimes it's double tough because if you try to do by player position, the player may not even be classified by the position he's primarily playing this year. So then you have to search through another group.

[Crow]

RAPM is available, pure and luck adjusted.

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=1109440799


I know EPM is there. Haven't used it much yet.

Referring to any of them gives food for thought to me. I should probably stop using in "conversation" with others though. Folks generally ignore totally or selectively.