Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:07 pm
Preview from round 1:
Code: Select all
. Celtics min PER WS/48 BPM
Jayson Tatum 145 28.2 .283 11.0
Kemba Walker 131 27.1 .281 9.2
Jaylen Brown 150 17.3 .156 3.0
Grant Williams 39 23.7 .376 11.1
Brad Wanamaker 69 11.9 .123 1.6
Daniel Theis 90 10.8 .083 -1.5
Enes Kanter 61 13.8 .131 -3.4
Marcus Smart 143 8.1 .075 -3.0
Gordon Hayward 34 14.3 .096 3.4
Tacko Fall 3 40.3 .412 12.7
Javonte Green 6 14.4 .211 2.7
Romeo Langford 37 3.5 .025 -4.1
Robert Williams 22 -0.3 -.045 -13.0
Semi Ojeleye 29 -3.8 -.052 -9.6
. total Bos 959 16.3 .161 2.58
. Raptors min PER WS/48 BPM
Fred VanVleet 133 24.9 .327 10.3
Serge Ibaka 94 32.9 .393 9.4
Norman Powell 96 23.1 .261 5.1
Kyle Lowry 119 16.0 .199 2.5
Pascal Siakam 134 16.5 .140 -0.9
OG Anunoby 130 10.7 .139 -0.9
Terence Davis 53 21.7 .267 4.7
Matt Thomas 43 17.4 .252 3.7
Stanley Johnson 16 23.9 .315 4.0
Ro. H-Jefferson 30 14.4 .184 -3.3
Marc Gasol 80 7.8 .072 -3.9
Paul Watson 9 12.8 .169 0.5
Malcolm Miller 5 1.7 .021 -10.8
Chris Boucher 18 -0.8 -.003 -10.8
. total 960 18.3 .218 2.73
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
The Raptors' .218 team WS/48 indicates they totaled 4.36 Win Shares for their 4 games vs the Nets -- leaving Brk with minus-0.36.
The aggregate BPM for these teams is closer than for PER or WS, indicating the Sixers were a stronger opponent. The difference of 0.15 (multiplied by 5) suggests Tor has been playing .75 ppg better thus far in the playoffs.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
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by Mike G Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:31 pm
Celtics 1, Raptors 0
112 - 94
Pythagorean wins .91 - .09 , eWins .71 - .29
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.18 Kemba Walker Bos 32 .750 28.3 3.4 11.3 1.2 2.4 .0 2.76
.17 Marcus Smart Bos 31 .875 37.9 7.0 4.7 1.2 6.2 .0 2.61
.13 Daniel Theis Bos 26 .565 22.1 20.7 1.4 1.4 5.9 2.8 2.39
.12 Jayson Tatum Bos 37 .568 24.1 8.8 1.9 1.0 4.2 .0 1.54
.10 Fred VanVleet Tor 38 .306 7.4 3.8 6.7 5.8 1.0 .0 1.22
.09 Robert Williams Bos 19 .833 24.2 8.3 3.3 1.7 1.8 3.4 2.37
.08 Kyle Lowry Tor 35 .515 17.3 6.2 7.3 1.1 5.3 .0 1.04
.07 Jaylen Brown Bos 31 .436 20.1 5.8 4.7 .0 2.5 .0 1.15
.07 Serge Ibaka Tor 26 .625 18.4 11.4 1.1 .0 1.3 .0 1.30
.05 OG Anunoby Tor 33 .750 13.2 7.7 .0 .0 1.1 2.2 .74
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.03 Marc Gasol Tor 25 .438 8.4 8.6 2.5 1.5 1.5 .0 .50
.01 Terence Davis Tor 13 .700 18.9 4.7 2.1 .0 4.8 .0 .44
.01 Pascal Siakam Tor 33 .361 11.0 3.3 1.9 2.2 2.2 .0 .17
-.00 Brad Wanamaker Bos 29 .500 8.7 6.9 1.1 1.2 3.7 .0 -.07
-.04 Semi Ojeleye Bos 22 .300 3.1 .0 .0 1.5 .0 .0 -.80
-.04 Norman Powell Tor 27 .417 8.8 1.2 .0 .0 1.2 .0 -.65
shooting: Bos .599 - .477 Tor
rebounds: Bos 50 - 40 Tor
turnovers: Tor 14 - 23 Bos
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:29 pm
First round summaries of the other 2nd round series:
Code: Select all
. Miami Heat min PER WS/48 BPM
Bam Adebayo 137 18.4 .160 2.0
Goran Dragić 137 18.9 .143 1.9
Jimmy Butler 135 20.5 .178 2.6
Tyler Herro 129 15.9 .175 0.9
Andre Iguodala 107 11.8 .170 2.6
Jae Crowder 102 14.6 .176 1.6
Duncan Robinson 101 14.0 .163 0.7
Kelly Olynyk 55 17.3 .146 2.7
Derrick Jones 43 13.5 .180 3.8
Kendrick Nunn 14 19.3 .245 6.0
totals 960 16.6 .167 2.0
. Mil. Bucks min PER WS/48 BPM
Antetokounmpo 159 32.9 .302 12.4
Khris Middleton 159 9.0 .016 -4.0
Brook Lopez 151 14.1 .140 1.3
Eric Bledsoe 131 16.4 .147 3.1
Wesley Matthews 117 9.9 .135 1.5
Pat Connaughton 106 12.0 .174 3.2
George Hill 111 15.5 .212 1.6
Kyle Korver 75 10.5 .100 -1.6
Donte DiVincenzo 67 10.5 .055 -2.6
Marvin Williams 76 13.5 .175 3.7
Robin Lopez 21 9.3 .148 -1.2
Ersan İlyasova 23 6.8 .032 -2.6
Sterling Brown 4 -7.7 -.178 -16.3
totals 1200 14.9 .184 2.6
BPM has gone missing from b-r.com, so these Milwaukee numbers are 80% of their 4-game BPM (which I had recorded) and 20% their single-game bpm from Gm5.
PER seems to miss the boat on the MIl-Orl series. The losers' PER totals 12.1
Meanwhile, both WS and BPM think the Heat go 10 deep with above-avg players.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:41 am
Heat 1 , Bucks 0
115 - 104
Pyth wins .79 - .21 , eWins .65 - .35
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.27 Jimmy Butler Mia 36 .755 49.1 4.8 1.9 2.0 3.1 1.0 3.64
.20 Goran Dragić Mia 33 .730 35.4 7.8 5.1 1.1 2.2 .0 2.91
.15 Bam Adebayo Mia 38 .462 10.4 19.1 5.3 1.9 1.9 .0 1.92
.14 Brook Lopez Mil 28 1.00 38.0 1.4 .0 1.3 1.3 2.7 2.45
.13 Khris Middleton Mil 37 .583 26.0 6.1 3.9 2.0 4.0 .0 1.67
.10 Antetokounmpo Mil 36 .500 16.1 10.5 7.2 1.0 6.1 1.0 1.37
.05 Kelly Olynyk Mia 8 1.00 23.1 9.5 7.4 4.1 .0 .0 2.75
.04 Kyle Korver Mil 17 .611 19.2 6.1 .0 .0 2.0 2.0 .99
.01 Wesley Matthews Mil 24 .700 10.6 1.6 .0 1.6 1.6 3.1 .25
.01 Marvin Williams Mil 21 .455 6.2 3.3 1.3 1.6 .0 1.6 .14
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.00 Kendrick Nunn Mia 16 .333 9.4 .0 3.8 2.1 2.1 .0 .07
.00 Jae Crowder Mia 35 .563 9.3 11.1 .0 .0 4.2 .0 .03
-.00 Tyler Herro Mia 29 .458 11.5 4.2 1.1 .0 2.4 .0 -.02
-.00 Donte DiVincenzo Mil 14 .250 1.4 9.8 3.7 .0 2.4 .0 -.10
-.01 Duncan Robinson Mia 26 .444 4.8 1.7 3.9 .0 .0 .0 -.25
-.01 Andre Iguodala Mia 19 .250 2.2 8.3 .0 1.8 3.5 1.8 -.38
-.02 Pat Connaughton Mil 25 .200 1.3 8.5 1.1 .0 1.4 .0 -.40
-.05 George Hill Mil 36 .533 7.3 1.1 3.2 .0 4.1 .0 -.61
shooting: Mil .591 - 590 Mia
rebounds:
Mia 46 - 34 Mil
turnovers: Mia 16 - 19 Mil
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:10 pm
Celtics 2 , Raptors 0
avg score 107.0 - 96.5
pyth wins 1.60 - .40 , eWins 1.30 - .70
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.44 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .647 31.5 8.1 3.4 .9 3.8 .0 2.67
.25 Kemba Walker Bos 35 .538 19.7 4.8 6.7 .5 2.2 .0 1.72
.24 Marcus Smart Bos 35 .784 28.8 4.8 2.4 .5 5.4 1.1 1.65
.20 Serge Ibaka Tor 27 .667 20.5 11.2 1.5 .0 1.9 1.3 1.85
.18 Kyle Lowry Tor 38 .452 15.1 5.4 5.8 2.5 3.4 .5 1.16
.17 Jaylen Brown Bos 34 .485 18.3 7.3 3.0 1.6 3.4 1.1 1.25
.17 Robert Williams Bos 18 .875 25.4 8.1 1.6 .9 1.8 2.6 2.32
.17 Daniel Theis Bos 28 .485 10.4 16.0 1.8 1.3 2.7 3.3 1.47
.16 Fred VanVleet Tor 41 .375 10.7 4.1 5.3 3.2 1.8 .5 .96
.13 Pascal Siakam Tor 38 .417 11.9 5.3 3.0 2.4 1.5 .5 .79
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.12 OG Anunoby Tor 36 .744 15.0 7.2 .0 .5 1.0 1.0 .78
.02 Marc Gasol Tor 24 .500 9.4 7.7 1.8 1.6 3.1 1.6 .18
-.01 Terence Davis Tor 10 .500 10.4 4.6 2.4 .0 3.1 .0 -.32
-.01 Chris Boucher Tor 7 .500 3.1 6.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.50
-.03 Brad Wanamaker Bos 19 .500 6.1 7.0 1.6 .9 3.5 .9 -.41
-.04 Grant Williams Bos 14 .500 1.9 4.6 2.0 .0 .0 .0 -.78
-.07 Norman Powell Tor 20 .389 7.2 .8 .6 .0 .8 .0 -.81
-.08 Semi Ojeleye Bos 16 .188 1.3 .0 .0 1.9 .0 .0 -1.14
shooting: Bos .588 - .487 Tor
rebounds: Bos 47.0 - 40.5 Tor
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 20.0 Bos
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:21 am
Heat 2 , Bucks 0
avg score 115.5 - 109.0
Pyth wins 1.37 - .63 , eWins 1.18 - .82
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.35 Jimmy Butler Mia 36 .688 29.3 3.7 3.7 2.6 2.6 .5 2.31
.33 Antetokounmpo Mil 36 .553 22.2 13.0 5.0 .5 4.1 1.0 2.20
.33 Goran Dragić Mia 34 .649 28.3 6.3 4.4 1.7 2.2 .0 2.34
.27 Khris Middleton Mil 35 .567 24.7 6.7 5.6 1.1 3.7 .0 1.86
.24 Bam Adebayo Mia 36 .540 13.0 14.0 4.2 1.6 2.1 .0 1.60
.21 Brook Lopez Mil 30 .909 24.9 5.2 .0 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.69
.11 Kelly Olynyk Mia 12 .938 25.1 10.1 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.40
.07 Tyler Herro Mia 31 .538 13.5 4.7 2.5 .0 1.1 .0 .55
.06 Jae Crowder Mia 36 .543 10.9 8.1 .9 1.0 2.1 .0 .43
.05 Eric Bledsoe Mil 16 .516 16.3 8.9 2.0 .0 3.6 .0 .76
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.03 Kyle Korver Mil 14 .680 16.6 3.8 .0 .0 1.2 1.2 .60
.02 Duncan Robinson Mia 26 .567 10.6 3.0 1.9 1.4 1.4 .0 .16
.01 Andre Iguodala Mia 15 .400 5.0 6.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.1 .10
.00 George Hill Mil 31 .629 11.9 2.5 2.4 .6 2.9 .0 .03
.00 Marvin Williams Mil 21 .360 4.1 5.9 .6 1.6 .0 .8 .02
.00 Donte DiVincenzo Mil 11 .167 .7 7.7 4.8 1.5 1.5 .0 .03
-.02 Kendrick Nunn Mia 13 .364 7.5 .0 3.3 1.2 2.5 .0 -.36
-.03 Pat Connaughton Mil 19 .222 1.6 8.5 .7 .9 1.8 .0 -.37
-.05 Wesley Matthews Mil 27 .423 5.4 3.6 .0 1.4 2.8 1.4 -.47
shooting: Mia .594 - .566 Mil
rebounds: 42.0 - 42.0
turnovers: Mia 13.0 - 16.5 Mil
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:58 pm
Celtics 2 ,
Raptors 1
avg score 105.7 - 99.0
Pyth wins 2.11 - .89 , eWins 1.81 - 1.19
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.51 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .551 23.4 8.2 3.6 .9 2.9 .0 2.05
.49 Kemba Walker Bos 36 .627 25.0 4.2 4.8 1.4 2.1 .0 2.16
.39 Kyle Lowry Tor 41 .520 19.5 5.2 5.1 2.1 3.0 .3 1.55
.32 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .520 18.6 8.9 2.3 1.0 3.6 2.1 1.44
.24 Robert Williams Bos 17 .828 21.6 10.8 2.7 .7 2.0 2.6 2.31
.23 Fred VanVleet Tor 41 .437 14.6 3.7 4.7 2.1 2.7 .3 .91
.23 Daniel Theis Bos 29 .510 10.3 13.7 1.8 .9 1.8 2.6 1.28
.20 Marcus Smart Bos 36 .614 20.5 5.0 2.6 1.0 4.7 .7 .92
.20 Serge Ibaka Tor 25 .567 14.9 10.1 1.7 .5 2.3 1.8 1.26
.19 OG Anunoby Tor 39 .721 12.6 7.7 .2 1.3 .9 1.3 .79
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.18 Pascal Siakam Tor 38 .434 12.6 6.0 2.4 1.9 1.6 .6 .76
.09 Marc Gasol Tor 24 .511 11.0 8.5 2.3 1.0 2.1 1.0 .58
-.04 Brad Wanamaker Bos 16 .571 9.0 5.5 1.7 .7 4.2 .7 -.39
-.06 Norman Powell Tor 18 .468 9.7 1.2 .9 .0 .6 .0 -.51
-.09 Semi Ojeleye Bos 13 .333 3.0 .0 .0 1.7 .0 .0 -1.06
-.09 Grant Williams Bos 15 .500 4.0 2.9 1.2 .0 .7 .7 -.98
shooting: Bos .575 - .505 Tor
rebounds: Bos 46.0 - 40.0 Tor
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 18.3 Bos
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:13 am
Heat 3 , Bucks 0
avg score 115.3 - 106.0
Pyth wins 2.26 - .74 , eWins 1.88 - 1.12
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.62 Jimmy Butler Mia 36 .680 32.5 4.9 4.5 2.1 2.5 .3 2.76
.53 Antetokounmpo Mil 36 .489 20.9 13.9 5.7 .7 3.8 1.4 2.39
.45 Bam Adebayo Mia 36 .644 17.1 14.6 3.9 1.0 2.1 .7 2.02
.41 Goran Dragić Mia 34 .607 23.6 5.8 4.1 1.8 1.8 .4 1.95
.38 Khris Middleton Mil 35 .556 21.9 5.3 5.5 1.4 2.4 .3 1.70
.26 Brook Lopez Mil 33 .765 21.4 5.3 .0 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.29
.16 Jae Crowder Mia 35 .600 13.1 6.7 2.3 .7 1.4 .0 .71
.12 Tyler Herro Mia 31 .513 13.3 6.0 2.8 .0 1.5 .0 .65
.10 Kelly Olynyk Mia 8 .938 23.3 9.0 2.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.10
.05 Eric Bledsoe Mil 20 .453 11.9 6.8 2.4 1.2 3.0 .0 .41
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.04 Andre Iguodala Mia 14 .632 9.0 6.7 3.4 1.5 1.5 .7 .51
.02 Marvin Williams Mil 22 .333 3.1 8.0 1.2 1.5 .0 .5 .13
.01 George Hill Mil 31 .660 12.4 2.3 2.1 .4 2.3 .0 .05
-.00 Donte DiVincenzo Mil 14 .500 6.3 5.0 2.2 1.4 1.4 .0 -.05
-.00 Kyle Korver Mil 11 .630 10.5 2.7 .0 .0 .9 .9 -.07
-.01 Duncan Robinson Mia 28 .500 8.3 3.5 2.1 .9 1.8 .4 -.06
-.04 Pat Connaughton Mil 13 .222 1.5 7.1 .6 .8 1.6 .0 -.53
-.04 Kendrick Nunn Mia 12 .294 5.7 1.6 2.3 .8 3.3 .8 -.58
-.08 Wesley Matthews Mil 25 .531 5.9 3.4 .0 .9 1.9 .9 -.48
shooting: Mia .598 - Mil .546
rebounds: Mia 44.3 - 42.7 Mil
turnovers: Mia 12.7 - 14.3 Mil
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:15 am
Celtics 2 ,
Raptors 2
avg score 102.5 - 99.3
Pyth wins 2.42 - 1.58 , eWins 2.21 - 1.79
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.64 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .560 23.2 8.4 3.4 .7 3.3 .0 1.92
.59 Kyle Lowry Tor 42 .528 19.7 6.3 5.4 2.0 3.3 .7 1.71
.54 Kemba Walker Bos 38 .622 21.8 3.5 5.3 1.2 2.0 .0 1.72
.35 Serge Ibaka Tor 24 .667 19.1 10.5 1.4 .4 2.1 1.8 1.76
.32 Fred VanVleet Tor 42 .436 13.9 4.0 4.8 1.7 2.2 .2 .93
.32 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .471 15.6 8.0 1.8 1.0 2.9 1.5 1.05
.30 Pascal Siakam Tor 40 .448 13.2 6.8 2.2 1.4 1.1 .5 .91
.30 Daniel Theis Bos 28 .508 10.4 12.9 1.7 1.0 1.7 2.3 1.30
.30 Robert Williams Bos 16 .811 20.0 11.1 2.7 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.25
.25 OG Anunoby Tor 38 .696 13.2 6.7 .8 1.0 1.4 1.4 .79
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.20 Marcus Smart Bos 37 .567 16.2 5.6 3.0 1.0 4.6 .7 .65
.08 Marc Gasol Tor 25 .482 9.4 7.0 3.4 .8 1.9 .8 .37
-.00 Brad Wanamaker Bos 16 .613 11.1 5.4 1.4 .5 3.3 .5 -.01
-.04 Semi Ojeleye Bos 13 .464 6.2 2.0 .0 2.0 .0 .0 -.41
-.08 Grant Williams Bos 15 .550 5.1 3.5 1.0 .0 .6 .6 -.69
-.09 Norman Powell Tor 19 .435 9.1 .9 .7 .4 .9 .0 -.56
shooting: Bos .563 - .510 Tor
rebounds: Bos 45.8 - 40.3 Tor
turnovers: Tor 12.8 - 17.3 Bos