Things that could go wrong in 2019-20 season for Rockets

[Crow]

Rockets getting crushed on boards and in general so far today. Net rebounding is a pretty big issue over last 10 games.

Got 10 plus offensive rebounds a bit than half the time in first 41 games. Less than 1/3rd since.

[Crow]

Will fall to 6th seed after today's looming loss. They might be fine with that.

[Crow]

At 82games W-L profiles, Rockets have only 44% win rate against teams with good net fta rates. Two of the best at that are Clippers and Thunder. Could face one or both in early playoff rounds. Jazz are strong on this too.

[Crow]

Eric Gordon's overall shooting is terrible and worst of career. 3pt% second worst in career. Well below league average for season and cratered after All-Star break. RAPM factor for team ft/fga suggests he has still had value (pretty much his only value) as a spacer opening up Westbrook and Harden for 1 on 1 drives; but arguably teams should not be sticking to him. Will see what happens in playoffs.

Overall boxscore metrics are weak. RPM / RAPM are average. Is he worth his pay now? Some might say barely. I'd say he is an over pay and a large future liability. But all in on a tiny chance at a title. Could he be traded this summer? Doesn't seem promising but perhaps a chance.


Green and Carroll off to strong starts. Will it last in playoffs? Probably Not. Green has usually underperformed more than usual in playoffs. Carroll has not more than half-decent in playoff in last 4 years.

[Crow]

In March, Rockets were 1 - 4. Westbrook -15 pts / 100p. Harden, -10 with terrible shooting. Temporary bump in road?

[Crow]

Lower 3pta rate than last season and less accurate. 23rd in league on 3pt fg% for season. It fell a bit post All-Star game.



-8 pts / gm in March.

[Crow]

Gordon - Tucker is mildly negative and one of the worst bigger minute player pairs.

[Crow]

Rockets pre and post All-Star game: Slightly lower scoring post AS, slight lower opponent scoring. 1.3 more made 3s per game. 4.5 less rebounds. Slightly lower win%.

[Crow]

Unless the current strategy works, Rockets should consider trying to pick-up Ibaka, C Wood or Muscala in off-season. Or a big out of G league, Europe or draft trade in. One who shoots 3s and hopefully has decent feet.

[Crow]

After 6 playoff games, Rockets have the 10th place offensive efficiency. 9th place efg%, 10th place ts%. 7th place own turnover%, 14th offensive rebound%, dead last ft/fga rate.

Highest 3pta frequency, 12th place 3pt fg%.

The quality of opponent defense is involved. Like always.


Rockets defense is better than expected and / or opponent offense is worse.

[Crow]

Potential elimination game coming up.

Harden getting tired and having a bad game at a bad time. Westbrook's inefficiency. Want more for Gordon this series, especially with abandonment of McElmore (and McElmore / Harden) and recent absence of House.

Lakers with a big edge from offensive rebounding.

Not looking like a successful strategy against this opponent.
But game 5 coming.

[Crow]

Their season is over. What to do next?

[Crow]

Ranked in top 6 in one playoffs factor (opponent turnovers). Bottom 6 on 4.

Slightly below avg on 3pt fg% and efg%. Slightly above on ts%.

[Crow]

Were the Rockets "a contender"? It depends on criteria. Could say anyone who gets to second round or is expected to be there is a contender. Or could say you have to be top 5.

[Mike G]

In the RS, the Rockets were just 3.2 pts worse than the Lakers. They 'should have' gone 6 games or maybe 7.
They lost in 5 with a pt-diff of -7.2; normally that gets you eliminated in 5 or maybe 6.

Playoff Rondo showed up and not only produced wins at 3x his RS rate, he played almost twice the min./G
Then Hou lost Danuel House to some indiscretion, and he had been solid in round 1.
The Lakers settled into an 8 man rotation; their worst shooter was Kentavious at .563 TS%.

None of this really means the coach has to go, or the team should be dissolved. Westbrook may come back to form; or he may be a Stack, 'Toine, or Smoove, washed up at 31.