Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:45 pm
Preview of ECF, summary stats for first 2 rounds.
Code: Select all
Celtics rd1: Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd2: Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jayson Tatum 145 28.2 .283 11.0 3.14 293 18.2 .147 5.0 2.07
Kemba Walker 131 27.1 .281 9.2 2.78 282 14.2 .146 2.0 1.15
Jaylen Brown 150 17.3 .156 3.0 1.44 276 14.7 .097 1.9 1.48
Marcus Smart 143 8.1 .075 -3.0 .09 275 12.7 .116 2.6 1.09
Daniel Theis 90 10.8 .083 -1.5 .68 214 15.1 .185 2.3 1.15
Brad Wanamaker 69 11.9 .123 1.6 .50 118 8.4 .090 -0.9 .20
Robt Williams 22 -0.3 -.045 -13.0 -.71 100 23.7 .299 6.9 1.45
Grant Williams 39 23.7 .376 11.1 2.04 81 9.0 .155 1.0 -.22
Semi Ojeleye 29 -3.8 -.052 -9.6 -1.41 70 4.4 .043 -1.4 -.35
Enes Kanter 61 13.8 .131 -3.4 1.05 7 8.9 .082 -12.1 .04
Romeo Langford 37 3.5 .025 -4.1 -.75 7 -4.7 -.164 -11.0 -.41
Heat rd1: Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd2: Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jimmy Butler 135 20.5 .178 2.6 1.85 183 25.5 .265 6.8 2.20
Bam Adebayo 137 18.4 .160 2.0 1.92 181 22.6 .253 5.5 2.04
Goran Dragić 137 18.9 .143 1.9 1.82 175 17.1 .131 1.4 1.52
Jae Crowder 102 14.6 .176 1.6 1.17 168 15.1 .152 4.7 1.02
Tyler Herro 129 15.9 .175 0.9 1.05 162 10.9 .055 0.2 .75
D. Robinson 101 14.0 .163 0.7 .19 136 8.1 .055 -1.4 .15
A. Iguodala 107 11.8 .170 2.6 .03 81 8.3 .056 -0.2 .18
Kendrick Nunn 14 19.3 .245 6.0 1.32 67 1.4 -.123 -7.9 -.28
Kelly Olynyk 55 17.3 .146 2.7 1.52 50 26.3 .270 10.9 2.02
Derrick Jones 43 13.5 .180 3.8 .35 13 41.5 .477 27.5 1.71
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:33 am
Heat 1 , Celtics 0
117 - 114
Pythagorean wins .59 - .41 , eWins .54 - .46
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.20 Jayson Tatum Bos 43 .556 25.7 15.1 3.7 2.5 2.8 1.7 2.46
.15 Goran Dragić Mia 39 .690 29.9 8.0 3.4 .0 1.0 .9 2.01
.10 Bam Adebayo Mia 43 .514 15.9 6.2 6.9 .8 2.8 1.7 1.29
.10 Brad Wanamaker Bos 25 .733 18.5 5.3 7.3 6.9 .0 .0 2.18
.10 Jae Crowder Mia 39 .815 23.7 5.7 .8 .9 2.0 1.9 1.34
.09 Tyler Herro Mia 40 .600 11.5 11.9 7.3 .0 1.9 .0 1.20
.09 Jimmy Butler Mia 43 .588 18.0 5.2 3.8 1.7 1.8 .0 1.06
.05 Marcus Smart Bos 44 .667 21.7 3.2 .7 .0 2.7 .0 .62
.04 Kemba Walker Bos 43 .422 14.0 3.2 4.5 .0 2.8 .8 .50
.04 Jaylen Brown Bos 44 .567 12.6 5.3 1.5 .8 .9 .0 .46
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.02 Robert Williams Bos 11 1.00 6.7 15.3 .0 .0 .0 3.0 .94
.01 Duncan Robinson Mia 17 .429 9.5 5.3 2.0 2.2 .0 .0 .44
.01 Kelly Olynyk Mia 11 .500 11.1 7.3 2.7 .0 .0 .0 .65
.00 Daniel Theis Bos 35 .667 4.1 5.3 2.8 .0 .0 1.0 .05
.00 Semi Ojeleye Bos 10 .500 5.5 4.2 2.9 .0 .0 .0 .05
.00 Andre Iguodala Mia 14 .500 7.3 2.9 2.2 2.4 5.2 2.4 .02
-.00 Grant Williams Bos 10 .750 9.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 3.3 -.01
-.01 Kendrick Nunn Mia 13 .300 4.5 3.1 2.3 .0 .0 .0 -.29
shooting: Mia .591 - .573 Bos
rebounds: Mia 41 - 37 Bos
turnovers: Bos 11 - 13 Mia
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:30 pm
Heat 2 , Celtics 0
avg score 111.5 - 107.5
Pyth wins 1.24 - .76 , eWins 1.12 - .88
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.36 Jayson Tatum Bos 42 .573 26.6 9.7 3.4 1.8 3.6 1.3 2.14
.29 Goran Dragić Mia 37 .659 28.8 5.9 3.9 .0 1.7 .5 1.99
.28 Bam Adebayo Mia 39 .565 19.3 9.0 5.4 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.81
.17 Jimmy Butler Mia 40 .548 15.8 5.0 3.3 2.8 1.6 .0 1.10
.16 Kemba Walker Bos 38 .494 19.0 5.7 3.8 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.04
.15 Tyler Herro Mia 36 .500 10.8 11.6 5.9 .5 2.8 .0 1.09
.15 Jae Crowder Mia 38 .654 16.7 5.3 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.00
.12 Jaylen Brown Bos 42 .613 15.6 5.7 1.5 .4 .9 .0 .72
.12 Brad Wanamaker Bos 25 .783 14.2 3.9 4.7 4.0 1.4 .0 1.19
.10 Duncan Robinson Mia 25 .632 16.0 3.5 3.3 .7 .0 .7 .99
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.09 Marcus Smart Bos 41 .597 17.9 3.7 2.0 .5 3.3 .5 .58
.05 Enes Kanter Bos 6 1.00 28.4 17.5 .0 .0 2.6 .0 2.27
.02 Daniel Theis Bos 34 .556 4.9 7.7 2.9 .0 .6 .5 .16
.02 Robert Williams Bos 6 1.00 5.8 12.6 .0 .0 .0 2.7 .72
.01 Kelly Olynyk Mia 12 .429 8.9 6.2 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .14
-.00 Kendrick Nunn Mia 10 .214 2.8 5.5 4.0 .0 .0 .0 -.10
-.01 Derrick Jones Mia 8 .000 .0 6.8 1.7 1.9 .0 .0 -.23
-.02 Andre Iguodala Mia 11 .500 3.9 1.6 2.4 1.3 3.1 1.3 -.43
-.02 Grant Williams Bos 11 .750 3.9 4.9 .0 .0 1.5 1.4 -.48
-.02 Semi Ojeleye Bos 10 .250 1.7 1.8 1.3 .0 .0 .0 -.63
shooting: Bos .586 - .569 Mia
rebounds: Mia 39.5 - 39.0 Bos
turnovers:
Mia 12.0 - 15.5 Bos
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:06 pm
Preview of WCF, summary stats for first 2 rounds.
Code: Select all
. Nuggets rd1: Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 rd2: Min PER WS/48 BPM e484
Jamal Murray 266 32.4 .273 9.5 2.97 282 18.2 .121 3.9 1.61
Nikola Jokić 263 26.6 .186 7.3 2.44 264 23.4 .150 7.5 2.77
Jerami Grant 239 9.0 -.003 -4.0 -.21 230 7.0 .040 -3.4 -.05
Gary Harris 47 -0.2 -.150 -8.5 -.94 218 13.3 .110 2.7 .54
Paul Millsap 152 11.0 .015 -4.0 .07 180 14.9 .122 0.8 .86
Michael Porter 182 14.6 .039 -1.3 .87 161 16.1 .131 1.5 1.02
Torrey Craig 169 8.4 .021 -3.4 -.34 130 6.1 .042 -3.6 -.20
Monte Morris 180 12.6 .048 -1.9 .29 117 18.9 .162 2.7 .22
Mason Plumlee 70 18.6 .145 0.9 .70 70 11.0 .117 -2.5 .08
PJ Dozier 80 5.8 -.034 -6.5 -.39 12 -0.3 -.134 -14.2 -.61
K Bates-Diop 16 4.2 -.086 -9.2 -.57 8 9.0 .076 -2.0 -.12
Troy Daniels 19 6.3 -.043 -6.7 -.47 6 8.8 .078 -5.0 -.19
Bol Bol 13 43.3 .384 16.8 2.70 4 66.3 .609 37.2 4.46Code: Select all
. Lakers rd1: Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 rd2: Min PER WS/48 BPM e484
Anthony Davis 163 37.2 .402 15.2 3.34 186 26.9 .235 5.1 2.58
LeBron James 164 32.5 .321 12.7 3.40 178 28.7 .238 8.5 3.04
K Caldwel-Pope 131 10.6 .093 -0.8 .54 141 6.9 .060 -3.3 -.13
Rajon Rondo 0 133 19.8 .195 6.7 1.39
Danny Green 134 8.6 .068 -0.9 .42 107 10.6 .093 -0.9 .51
Alex Caruso 119 8.7 .068 -1.7 .32 120 13.1 .130 1.5 .39
Kyle Kuzma 121 9.1 .074 -4.0 .54 96 13.8 .101 -1.7 .64
Markieff Morris 88 6.3 .101 -3.5 .14 102 13.2 .129 0.4 .57
JaVale McGee 67 26.5 .298 5.9 2.02 30 9.0 .052 -4.1 .14
Dwight Howard 94 17.2 .187 -3.2 .98 16 8.3 .043 -9.4 .19
Dion Waiters 30 7.2 .053 -4.9 -.12 8 -6.1 -.261 -16.3 -.59
T Horton-Tucker 0 17 25.0 .207 4.7 1.76
J.R. Smith 54 -7.0 -.192 -14.7 -.80 7 -7.9 -.201 -13.0 -.91
Jared Dudley 16 1.6 -.038 -3.1 -.28 8 -14.3 -.302 -18.7 -1.73
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:06 am
Lakers 1 , Nuggets 0
126 - 114
Pyth wins .79 - .21 , eWins .65 - .35
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.22 Anthony Davis LAL 33 .649 47.0 13.8 3.6 .0 3.7 .0 3.25
.11 LeBron James LAL 31 .577 19.3 8.9 11.5 .0 3.9 .0 1.73
.09 Nikola Jokić Den 26 .600 29.8 10.6 2.0 .0 5.7 1.4 1.66
.08 Michael Porter Den 29 .538 14.8 14.9 3.4 1.2 2.4 .0 1.34
.08 Jamal Murray Den 29 .750 29.4 1.6 4.5 .0 3.8 .0 1.29
.08 Dwight Howard LAL 16 .722 34.0 7.9 .0 4.2 4.6 4.2 2.32
.06 K Caldwell-Pope LAL 30 .750 20.6 1.5 1.0 1.2 .0 1.2 .95
.06 Rajon Rondo LAL 22 .500 10.7 1.9 11.3 3.1 .0 .0 1.30
.05 Markieff Morris LAL 16 1.125 23.2 2.6 1.7 4.2 .0 .0 1.42
.04 Danny Green LAL 23 .381 8.3 10.0 1.3 3.2 .0 1.6 .94
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.04 Mason Plumlee Den 21 .692 13.8 8.1 3.5 .0 .0 .0 .93
.03 Paul Millsap Den 21 .500 6.7 13.2 1.3 1.8 1.8 .0 .59
.02 Monte Morris Den 21 .500 11.0 2.0 3.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 .48
.02 PJ Dozier Den 12 .600 17.0 10.4 3.9 .0 5.6 .0 .83
.02 Kyle Kuzma LAL 24 .688 13.8 7.1 .0 .0 1.6 .0 .40
.02 Alex Caruso LAL 22 .455 6.5 3.9 5.0 .0 .0 1.6 .43
.00 Torrey Craig Den 11 .600 13.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .01
-.01 Jerami Grant Den 37 .375 5.4 4.9 2.1 .0 1.0 .0 -.07
-.03 JaVale McGee LAL 11 .000 .0 .0 .0 .0 7.5 3.4 -1.27
-.03 Gary Harris Den 26 .357 4.1 3.5 .0 .0 2.9 .0 -.62
shooting: LA .621 - .588 Den
rebounds: Den 37 - 34 LA
turnovers: LA 12 - 16 Den
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun Sep 20, 2020 5:48 pm
Heat 2 ,
Celtics 1
avg score : Bos 110.7 - 109.7 Mia
Pyth wins 1.59 - 1.41 , eWins 1.55 - 1.45
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.58 Jayson Tatum Bos 42 .567 27.9 11.0 4.4 1.2 3.0 .9 2.30
.48 Bam Adebayo Mia 39 .623 23.2 10.9 3.9 1.9 2.8 1.6 2.05
.29 Jaylen Brown Bos 42 .634 18.8 6.0 2.3 1.2 1.2 .3 1.13
.28 Goran Dragić Mia 34 .596 24.7 4.2 4.4 .0 3.1 .4 1.36
.23 Jimmy Butler Mia 39 .543 16.0 5.8 3.0 1.9 2.1 .6 1.00
.23 Tyler Herro Mia 36 .536 14.3 8.1 5.1 .7 2.1 .0 1.07
.23 Kemba Walker Bos 39 .529 19.8 5.7 3.0 .6 3.9 .6 .96
.21 Marcus Smart Bos 39 .619 19.8 3.9 3.0 .3 2.9 .3 .86
.18 Jae Crowder Mia 36 .579 13.8 5.4 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.0 .81
.12 Brad Wanamaker Bos 20 .741 13.7 4.2 4.7 3.8 2.2 .0 .99
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.11 Duncan Robinson Mia 26 .661 14.4 2.5 2.8 .5 .0 .9 .68
.06 Enes Kanter Bos 6 .684 21.0 17.4 .0 .0 1.6 .0 1.76
.05 Daniel Theis Bos 30 .563 6.3 8.5 2.1 .0 .8 .8 .29
.04 Gordon Hayward Bos 10 .375 5.3 6.2 3.8 3.3 1.1 1.1 .58
.00 Kelly Olynyk Mia 12 .324 6.1 5.2 1.4 .0 .0 .8 .05
-.01 Grant Williams Bos 10 .667 6.4 4.3 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -.15
-.01 Derrick Jones Mia 10 .300 1.5 5.9 .8 .9 .0 .9 -.20
-.01 Kendrick Nunn Mia 8 .188 1.7 3.8 3.1 .0 .0 .0 -.30
-.02 Semi Ojeleye Bos 6 .250 1.5 1.7 1.3 .0 .0 .0 -.65
-.03 Andre Iguodala Mia 10 .375 2.2 3.1 1.7 1.0 2.1 1.0 -.47
shooting: Bos .586 - .552 Mia
rebounds: Bos 42.7 - 40.3 Mia
turnovers: Mia 12.3 - 15.0 Bos
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:44 am
Lakers 2 , Nuggets 0
avg score 115.5 - 108.5
Pyth wins 1.39 - .61 , eWins 1.20 - .80
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.43 Anthony Davis LAL 36 .618 36.5 11.4 2.5 .5 2.2 1.0 2.85
.31 Nikola Jokić Den 32 .586 30.0 8.5 4.9 2.3 3.7 .6 2.36
.28 LeBron James LAL 34 .586 24.3 10.9 7.0 .0 5.2 1.1 1.97
.19 Jamal Murray Den 37 .622 23.5 4.3 3.5 1.0 4.2 1.0 1.25
.15 Michael Porter Den 25 .630 20.4 12.1 2.2 .7 3.0 .0 1.46
.11 Danny Green LAL 26 .388 9.6 8.4 1.2 3.6 .8 1.4 .97
.09 K Caldwell-Pope LAL 31 .763 17.7 2.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 .73
.09 Dwight Howard LAL 15 .762 21.8 6.9 .0 3.5 2.5 2.3 1.51
.09 Rajon Rondo LAL 22 .500 8.4 4.7 11.7 2.4 4.2 .0 1.02
.06 Mason Plumlee Den 15 .647 12.9 6.9 6.0 .0 1.2 .0 .99
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.06 Monte Morris Den 17 .654 17.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.0 .86
.05 Alex Caruso LAL 26 .560 9.0 3.2 3.3 1.4 .7 1.4 .47
.04 Markieff Morris LAL 13 1.125 15.6 3.2 2.2 2.7 1.4 .0 .79
.04 Paul Millsap Den 25 .440 6.7 13.1 1.2 .8 3.2 .0 .37
.03 PJ Dozier Den 13 .474 10.5 6.4 3.0 1.3 2.7 1.3 .57
.02 Kyle Kuzma LAL 23 .594 14.5 6.3 .6 .0 4.0 .0 .21
-.00 Torrey Craig Den 17 .600 6.8 2.5 .8 1.0 .0 1.0 -.01
-.01 Jerami Grant Den 31 .500 8.0 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.5 .0 -.05
-.01 JaVale McGee LAL 12 .333 4.1 9.7 2.7 .0 7.0 1.6 -.31
-.07 Gary Harris Den 25 .308 3.7 3.7 .6 .0 3.1 .0 -.71
shooting: LA .595 - .579 Den
rebounds:
LA 39.0 - 34.0 Den
turnovers: LA 18.0 - 18.5 Den
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:55 pm
Lakers 2 ,
Nuggets 1
avg score 112.3 - 110.3
Pyth wins 1.68 - 1.32 , eWins 1.59 - 1.41
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.55 LeBron James LAL 35 .602 27.1 11.6 7.4 .7 5.5 1.4 2.51
.51 Anthony Davis LAL 38 .617 30.7 8.2 1.8 .6 2.3 .6 2.14
.48 Nikola Jokić Den 34 .613 28.0 9.7 4.7 1.8 4.3 .7 2.26
.42 Jamal Murray Den 39 .643 24.7 5.7 5.3 1.2 4.0 .6 1.73
.21 Michael Porter Den 24 .655 19.6 11.9 2.4 1.5 3.7 .0 1.41
.13 Kentavious C-P LAL 29 .759 16.4 3.1 1.0 1.3 .9 .8 .74
.12 Monte Morris Den 18 .738 21.3 2.4 2.1 1.3 1.4 .6 1.13
.12 Rajon Rondo LAL 24 .442 8.5 4.1 9.8 2.9 4.5 .0 .77
.11 Jerami Grant Den 32 .636 16.1 3.3 1.6 1.9 2.5 .0 .56
.11 Danny Green LAL 24 .390 7.6 8.9 1.2 2.6 .5 1.0 .72
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.09 Dwight Howard LAL 14 .714 17.4 5.8 .0 3.1 2.4 2.4 1.01
.06 Mason Plumlee Den 12 .579 10.8 8.2 6.2 .0 2.1 .0 .83
.04 Paul Millsap Den 27 .395 5.6 12.5 1.1 .5 2.5 .5 .26
.03 Markieff Morris LAL 12 1.00 13.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.0 .0 .46
.03 PJ Dozier Den 9 .474 10.4 6.4 3.2 1.3 2.8 1.3 .55
.02 Kyle Kuzma LAL 24 .612 14.0 4.8 .8 .0 3.0 .0 .11
.01 Alex Caruso LAL 25 .410 5.5 2.8 3.2 1.8 .9 .9 .09
.00 Torrey Craig Den 17 .478 4.9 6.7 .6 1.4 .7 .7 .01
.00 JaVale McGee LAL 10 .500 8.0 9.0 1.9 1.2 5.1 1.2 .01
-.12 Gary Harris Den 28 .395 4.6 2.2 1.5 .0 2.4 .0 -.69
shooting: Den .602 - .585 LA
rebounds: Den 37.3 - 34.3 LA
turnovers:
LA 17.3 - 19.0 Den
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:55 pm
Some of the team stats in the WCF have shifted dramatically:
Code: Select all
stat: TS% Rebounds Turnover
G Den LA Den LA Den LA
1 .598 .635 34 37 16 12
2 .582 .575 31 44 19 23
3 .665 .572 44 25 18 16From -13 in the rebound dept for game 2, Nuggets went to +19 in game 3.
That is a shift of 16 boards from LA to Den.
But for one miracle shot, it would be 2-1 Denver now.