Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:19 am
Heat 3 , Celtics 1
avg score 110.3 - 110.3 , eWins and Pyth wins 2.0 - 2.0
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.75 Jayson Tatum Bos 41 .571 27.7 10.2 4.0 1.1 3.6 1.3 2.23
.63 Bam Adebayo Mia 39 .632 21.8 11.1 3.7 1.9 2.8 1.2 1.98
.45 Tyler Herro Mia 36 .631 20.4 7.9 4.4 .5 1.8 .0 1.53
.39 Jaylen Brown Bos 42 .649 18.9 6.5 2.1 1.1 1.8 .4 1.15
.37 Jimmy Butler Mia 39 .524 16.8 6.7 2.9 1.7 1.8 .7 1.18
.36 Goran Dragić Mia 35 .565 22.4 4.5 3.8 .5 2.8 .3 1.25
.31 Kemba Walker Bos 38 .542 19.6 5.3 3.3 .5 3.0 .5 1.02
.22 Marcus Smart Bos 39 .560 16.7 3.4 4.5 .2 3.2 .5 .71
.16 Jae Crowder Mia 35 .500 10.2 5.1 2.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 .56
.11 Duncan Robinson Mia 25 .580 11.6 3.1 2.8 .7 .0 .7 .54
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.11 Brad Wanamaker Bos 18 .774 12.9 3.7 4.1 3.0 2.6 .0 .73
.10 Gordon Hayward Bos 15 .526 10.5 7.4 3.4 1.7 1.2 .6 .83
.08 Daniel Theis Bos 31 .619 7.2 9.0 1.8 .0 1.2 .6 .31
.03 Robert Williams Bos 6 .545 5.7 11.0 1.1 1.3 .0 1.3 .68
.00 Kelly Olynyk Mia 9 .324 6.2 5.3 1.4 .0 .0 .8 .07
-.01 Grant Williams Bos 8 .667 5.9 3.8 .0 .9 .9 .9 -.24
-.02 Kendrick Nunn Mia 6 .188 1.8 3.9 3.1 .0 .0 .0 -.32
-.02 Derrick Jones Mia 8 .300 1.5 5.0 .8 .9 .0 .9 -.26
-.03 Semi Ojeleye Bos 6 .250 1.2 2.6 1.0 .0 .0 .0 -.64
-.04 Andre Iguodala Mia 14 .375 2.4 2.9 1.9 2.1 1.7 .5 -.34
shooting: Bos .586 - .548 Mia
rebounds: Bos 43.5 - 40.3 Mia
turnovers: Mia 11.3 - 16.0 Bos
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2020.html
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:11 pm
Lakers 3 , Nuggets 1
avg score 112.8 - 109.8
Pyth wins 2.35 - 1.65 , eWins 2.18 - 1.82
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.72 LeBron James LAL 36 .577 26.3 11.1 7.3 .5 4.1 1.0 2.42
.71 Anthony Davis LAL 39 .652 32.1 7.3 1.9 1.2 2.5 .5 2.20
.57 Jamal Murray Den 41 .650 25.4 5.0 5.2 .9 3.8 .7 1.68
.57 Nikola Jokić Den 34 .605 24.7 9.5 4.3 1.9 3.4 .5 1.99
.30 Michael Porter Den 23 .689 20.9 13.1 2.1 1.5 3.6 .0 1.60
.22 Rajon Rondo LAL 24 .508 11.5 5.3 9.9 2.2 3.9 .0 1.11
.22 Dwight Howard LAL 17 .744 18.5 10.9 .4 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.57
.17 Monte Morris Den 20 .705 18.7 2.6 2.7 .8 .9 .4 .99
.14 K Caldwell-Pope LAL 31 .692 14.0 2.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 .9 .54
.11 Jerami Grant Den 35 .615 14.2 2.9 1.3 1.3 1.7 .0 .39
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.08 Danny Green LAL 23 .366 6.0 8.2 1.0 2.0 .4 .8 .43
.08 Paul Millsap Den 24 .431 6.7 13.1 1.8 .4 3.2 .4 .38
.04 Mason Plumlee Den 12 .560 9.8 6.9 4.5 .0 2.2 .0 .44
.03 PJ Dozier Den 7 .474 10.6 6.3 3.1 1.3 2.7 1.3 .60
.03 Markieff Morris LAL 13 .875 10.3 4.6 1.6 2.6 2.1 .0 .27
.03 Kyle Kuzma LAL 23 .563 14.0 3.7 .9 .4 2.9 .0 .15
.03 Torrey Craig Den 17 .514 6.0 6.1 .8 1.0 .5 1.5 .18
.02 Alex Caruso LAL 24 .404 5.3 2.6 3.2 1.8 1.2 1.1 .08
-.00 JaVale McGee LAL 9 .500 6.7 8.7 1.7 1.0 4.4 1.0 -.02
-.12 Gary Harris Den 25 .375 4.3 2.7 1.2 .4 1.9 .0 -.55
shooting: Den .604 - .585 LA
rebounds: Den 36.3 - 36.0 LA
turnovers: LA 15.8 - 17.0 Den
Crow
Posts: 10565 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:57 pm
MPJ 5th best in series by this rtg. About 50% less minutes than those above him.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:49 pm
In RS the Lakers were 4 ppg better; in this series, just 3. And they're hitting their stride. So at first glance, we assume random changes will likely make it worse.
If anything, it looks to me as if Jokic is just about gassed. Hoping I am wrong. He was a 32 mpg guy in the RS, 38 mpg thru 2 rounds of PO, 14 games in 29 days.
Some 'advanced' numbers:
Code: Select all
time mpg eFG% ORb DReb TReb Ast Stl Blk Usg
RS 32.0 .565 7.9 26.2 17.0 35.7 1.8 1.8 26.8
rd1-2 37.7 .585 5.5 26.7 16.3 30.5 1.0 2.3 29.8
rd3 34.3 .557 11.7 16.4 14.1 26.6 2.6 1.2 27.8
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2020/
vs the Clipps, Joker averaged 12 D-Reb; in this series it's 4.5
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:24 pm
Game by game eWins in the Bos-Mia series:
Code: Select all
eWins per game Gm: 1 2 3 4
Jayson Tatum Bos .200 .156 .227 .159
Bam Adebayo Mia .105 .175 .203 .144
Tyler Herro Mia .091 .065 .077 .214
Jaylen Brown Bos .038 .082 .167 .105
Jimmy Butler Mia .086 .088 .061 .138
Goran Dragić Mia .148 .144 -.012 .076
Kemba Walker Bos .041 .116 .069 .088
Marcus Smart Bos .051 .043 .108 .022
Jae Crowder Mia .099 .052 .026 -.017
Duncan Robinson Mia .014 .084 .009 .003
Brad Wanamaker Bos .103 .015 .002 -.013
Gordon Hayward Bos .035 .066
Daniel Theis Bos .003 .018 .031 .025
Enes Kanter Bos .054 .010
Robert Williams Bos .020 -.002 -.017 .033
Kelly Olynyk Mia .013 -.007 -.003 .001
Grant Williams Bos .000 -.021 .012 -.007
Kendrick Nunn Mia -.007 .003 -.011 -.001
Derrick Jones Mia -.007 -.005 -.005
Semi Ojeleye Bos .001 -.026 .001 -.008
Andre Iguodala Mia .001 -.019 -.010 -.010
Tatum with 2 best and 2 2nd-best.
Bam with one of each.
Herro Gm4 with the other 1st; Dragic Gm1 had the other #2.
Brown and Butler trending stronger. Crowder and Wanamaker weaker by the game.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:15 am
Heat 3 ,
Celtics 2
avg score: Bos 112.4 - 109.8 Mia
pyth wins 2.89 - 2.11 , eWins 2.69 - 2.31
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
.95 Jayson Tatum Bos 42 .563 27.0 9.9 4.1 1.1 3.2 1.1 2.23
.71 Bam Adebayo Mia 39 .611 19.3 10.3 4.1 1.7 2.6 1.1 1.79
.51 Jaylen Brown Bos 41 .635 20.2 6.7 2.0 1.1 2.2 .4 1.22
.49 Jimmy Butler Mia 38 .532 16.7 6.9 3.5 1.5 2.1 .8 1.25
.45 Tyler Herro Mia 35 .623 19.1 7.0 3.7 .4 2.0 .0 1.27
.41 Goran Dragić Mia 35 .564 22.2 4.3 3.6 .4 3.1 .2 1.15
.40 Kemba Walker Bos 36 .547 19.5 4.8 4.0 .6 2.7 .4 1.10
.34 Marcus Smart Bos 39 .558 15.4 4.3 4.8 .9 2.7 .4 .85
.21 Jae Crowder Mia 34 .492 10.5 5.4 2.5 1.1 .9 1.1 .60
.19 Daniel Theis Bos 31 .621 8.8 10.2 1.6 .0 1.2 1.2 .58
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
.12 Duncan Robinson Mia 27 .583 12.1 2.7 2.0 .8 .0 .5 .44
.12 Brad Wanamaker Bos 15 .788 13.0 3.9 4.1 2.8 2.4 .0 .75
.11 Enes Kanter Bos 5 .636 21.7 15.4 1.7 .0 1.0 .0 1.98
.11 Gordon Hayward Bos 18 .517 10.3 6.1 2.9 1.1 1.5 .8 .58
.03 Robert Williams Bos 5 .545 5.9 11.1 1.1 1.3 .0 1.3 .73
.01 Kelly Olynyk Mia 8 .395 8.3 4.6 1.2 .0 .0 .7 .09
-.02 Kendrick Nunn Mia 5 .188 1.8 3.8 3.1 .0 .0 .0 -.40
-.02 Derrick Jones Mia 6 .300 1.5 4.8 .8 .9 .0 .9 -.35
-.03 Semi Ojeleye Bos 5 .250 1.3 2.6 1.0 .0 .0 .0 -.65
-.03 Grant Williams Bos 8 .571 4.5 3.9 .0 .7 .7 .7 -.43
-.05 Andre Iguodala Mia 15 .308 2.1 3.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.2 -.32
shooting: Bos .581 - .546 Mia
rebounds: Bos 44.8 - 39.8 Mia
turnovers: Mia 11.6 - 16.0 Bos
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:54 am
Lakers 4 , Nuggets 1
avg score 113.6 - 109.2
Pyth wins 3.14 - 1.86 , eWins 2.82 - 2.18
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.07 LeBron James LAL 37 .597 29.3 12.4 7.3 .6 3.6 .8 2.79
.88 Anthony Davis LAL 38 .653 32.0 7.1 2.0 1.3 2.3 .6 2.23
.72 Nikola Jokić Den 33 .606 24.6 9.5 4.4 2.2 3.0 .4 2.06
.61 Jamal Murray Den 41 .619 23.0 4.7 5.2 .9 3.9 .5 1.43
.32 Michael Porter Den 22 .678 20.1 11.5 1.8 1.3 3.0 .0 1.44
.29 Rajon Rondo LAL 21 .551 13.6 5.8 9.8 1.9 3.8 .0 1.30
.25 Dwight Howard LAL 20 .719 15.2 11.0 .3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.18
.21 Monte Morris Den 22 .654 16.7 2.7 3.8 .6 .7 .3 .94
.17 Jerami Grant Den 37 .581 13.3 4.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 .2 .45
.10 Paul Millsap Den 25 .449 8.3 11.2 1.6 .3 2.8 .3 .39
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.10 Danny Green LAL 24 .416 7.3 6.2 1.2 1.5 .3 1.2 .41
.09 K Caldwell-Pope LAL 30 .683 11.7 2.6 .8 1.5 1.1 .7 .29
.07 Mason Plumlee Den 13 .525 9.9 8.1 3.3 .0 1.6 .0 .51
.06 Alex Caruso LAL 24 .484 7.7 2.7 3.5 1.7 1.8 1.1 .23
.06 Kyle Kuzma LAL 22 .558 13.4 4.1 1.0 .3 2.4 .3 .25
.05 PJ Dozier Den 7 .560 13.8 6.1 2.4 1.0 2.2 1.0 .75
.02 Markieff Morris LAL 14 .773 9.1 5.4 1.2 2.0 2.7 .5 .15
.01 Torrey Craig Den 15 .486 5.1 5.4 .7 .9 .5 1.8 .07
-.01 JaVale McGee LAL 8 .438 6.1 9.1 1.6 1.0 5.1 1.0 -.14
-.13 Gary Harris Den 23 .375 4.8 3.1 1.3 .3 2.7 .0 -.57
shooting: LA .595 - .585 Den
rebounds: LA 37.4 - 36.2 Den
turnovers: LA 15.4 - 15.8 Den
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:03 pm
Heat 4 , Celtics 2
avg score: Bos 112.5 - 112.3 Mia
pyth wins 3.03 - 2.97 , eWins 3.01 - 2.99
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e488
.98 Jayson Tatum Bos 42 .537 21.9 9.4 4.5 1.2 3.0 1.0 1.89
.97 Bam Adebayo Mia 39 .645 21.7 10.9 4.0 1.6 2.5 .9 2.03
.68 Jaylen Brown Bos 41 .647 20.7 7.0 2.1 1.3 2.1 .3 1.35
.59 Jimmy Butler Mia 38 .523 16.7 6.0 4.0 1.4 1.9 .6 1.25
.53 Tyler Herro Mia 35 .632 19.4 6.7 4.0 .3 2.5 .0 1.24
.47 Goran Dragić Mia 35 .557 21.0 4.3 4.1 .5 3.2 .2 1.10
.46 Kemba Walker Bos 36 .554 18.9 4.5 3.9 .5 2.4 .3 1.04
.40 Marcus Smart Bos 38 .534 15.1 5.0 4.2 1.1 2.6 .3 .84
.25 Jae Crowder Mia 34 .493 10.1 5.7 2.3 .9 .8 1.3 .62
.23 Daniel Theis Bos 30 .635 9.0 10.7 1.5 .0 1.0 1.0 .62
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e488
.20 Duncan Robinson Mia 29 .630 13.3 3.6 1.8 .9 .2 .4 .57
.13 Enes Kanter Bos 6 .615 19.0 16.2 1.4 .0 .8 .0 1.83
.09 Gordon Hayward Bos 21 .512 10.1 4.8 2.5 .8 1.7 .6 .35
.08 Brad Wanamaker Bos 14 .743 10.9 3.5 3.8 2.5 2.5 .0 .46
.05 Robert Williams Bos 5 .615 7.4 11.7 .9 1.1 .0 1.1 .87
.02 Andre Iguodala Mia 17 .605 6.4 3.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 .9 .08
.01 Kelly Olynyk Mia 7 .395 8.4 4.6 1.2 .0 .0 .7 .09
-.01 Solomon Hill Mia 3 .0 6.8 2.7 .0 .0 .0 -.28
-.02 Kendrick Nunn Mia 4 .188 1.7 3.9 3.1 .0 .0 .0 -.43
-.02 Derrick Jones Mia 5 .300 1.5 4.8 .8 .9 .0 .9 -.33
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e488
-.03 Semi Ojeleye Bos 4 .250 1.2 2.7 1.0 .0 .0 .0 -.65
-.03 Grant Williams Bos 8 .571 3.6 5.0 .0 .6 .6 1.2 -.34
shooting: Bos .572 - .565 Mia
rebounds: Bos 44.3 - 39.8 Mia
turnovers:
Mia 11.7 - 14.2 Bos