2020-21 team win projection contest

[liminal_space]

we doing this again?

[Crow]

Whoever wants to.

Thread started.

[Crow]

6 weeks to go.

Anyone is welcome. Jump in if you want to.

Scale to 72 regular season games. Ignore playoff play in games or in season tournaments unless otherwise determined later.

Free to revise til first game is played.

Use one decimal max (please) or not. For consistency / ease of data entry, make your list by team name, not city.

Scorekeepers appreciated.

Predictions sets published elsewhere by start of season can be added by request or I guess scorekeeper interest. Some Vegas related betting baseline is usually included. Which? Recommend and the group can react.

Talk about methodology or challenging cases is welcome.

Scoring method could end up being two way as scorekeepers have done in past. Pay attention to the one you prefer.

If season is abbreviated, actual records should be scaled up to 72 game equivalents.

One entry per person unless you have a strong reason for pursuing / presenting multiple methods. Designate one as your primary contest entry.

Links to projected player minute sets are welcome.

Promote the contest or talk about it elsewhere as you wish.
I mentioned on twitter https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 96224?s=20 and you can too or retweet or post other spots.

Other questions or issues, ask and /or propose answers.

[Mike G]

For consistency / ease of data entry, make your list by team name, not city.

That's a new one. Reasoning?

[Crow]

I don't really care if it is team name or city name. I was just trying to help make it consistent for cut n paste or data entry for recordkeeping table. Maybe in trying to say everything, I said too much.

There are minor issues both ways with LAC / LAK or Sixers / 76ers, Wolves / Timberwolves, Blazers / Trail Blazers. It can be handled.

I didn't look / think about 3 letter city name abbreviations being the shortest option. That is fine. Go with that. Or whatever.

[eminence]

Looking forward to this season, it'll be a weird one, that's for sure, not seriously nailing anything down in my head yet as it seems this offseason may have a few big moves left.

[eminence]

I'll probably go with the 3 letter abbreviation for mine.

Just starting to really look at squads as they seem to be shaping up.

[Crow]

So far do you see a east / west talent tilt?

[eminence]

Haven't actually looked at the conference balance numbers recently, but gut would tell me to favor the West slightly, probably by less than in the recent past.

[eminence]

Betting sites early lines look way too high on Brooklyn to me.

[eminence]

Hoping this Harden thing gets sorted one way or another soon. Pretty big shoe yet to drop.

[dtkavana]

I'm back for more. Current projections can be found at the following link.

https://craftednba.com/projections

[vzografos]

Good luck to all. I dont have the time now to program a forward-predicting Monte Carlo system for the whole season but next season I'll participate on this competition as well.

[Crow]

dtkavana, those projections are interesting and have a lot of detail. I will be looking closer.

Compared to my first draft projections, I see a moderate amount of teams where we might vary by more than a little. Would want to refine my projections later.

About 9 days to the regular season start.

[eminence]

Barring any major changes (Harden trade, some injury in the Pre-season), here we go.

Eastern Conference
MIL 50
MIA 45
BOS 44
BKN 42
PHI 41
TOR 40
IND 38
ATL 37
WAS 34
ORL 28
CHI 27
DET 26
CLE 24
CHA 20
NYK 17


Western Conference
LAL 48
LAC 46
UTA 45
POR 44
GSW 43
DAL 42
DEN 41
PHX 40
NOP 39
HOU 38
MIN 33
MEM 31
SAC 30
SAS 24
OKC 23

Roughly the same system as last year - largely based on a player grade system, spits out something close to the 1080 wins needed, broke all ties within conferences based on gut calls (I hate ties).