Thunder review - late summer 2021

[Crow]

By player and topics.

SGA

Big contract signed. Locked up for 6 seasons. Does he stall out or keep improving? Hope he doesn't relax or lose patience. 36th best in league on EPM. That won't make All-Star game or a good team at that level by itself. Defensive weakness chops 50% off his offensive positive. Is that discussed privately? Never hear any mention of it publicly.

40% ft rate is great. Hope it doesn't slide but if Giddey handles a lot, it might. 42% from 3 is also great and he doubled the 3pta rate. Would be nice if it goes up another 40-50%. Long 2 attempts cut in half. Assists up with other last season PGs gone. A/TO is fine but not special. Team assist rate is pretty low with him on court and lower than with him off, though his unassisted drives are a big reason.

Better against east than west. Much better road than home last season, but the reverse in season before that. Maybe empty stands weren't inspiring. 46% team win while on court, though he mainly played when they were trying and had Hill & Horford. Clock ticking to have him lead back to playoffs with enough help. May be stressful. In many ways, he compares to James Harden. Not in personality and not in Thunder assigned role but in game & stats. His role is more like Rockets Harden.

Not sure what position he should guard. I guess the 2nd best perimeter player with Dort on court. First best without him could be a problem.

Giddey

Wasn't a fan of his in abstract or for Thunder before draft, but not kicking and screaming about it.

Short arms makes him less effectively tall in general, though his eyes are still tall and that is worth something.

All level outcomes possible. Middle or low seems more likely than high to me, but he'll get a full chance.

Triple doubles possible; however, I don't know how common they will be. Part of it is whether he is the primary or secondary initiator and whether after he drives / passes the shot goes up fast with him lingering in the paint for rebounds or whether other guys think about things for a bit before doing something and hopefully he clears the paint to give driving options.

Jerome

Possible keeper, possible starter to me. Slightly negative on offense and defense on several metrics. But slightly negative is relatively good on team and in league for a support player. Doesn't seem that assertive or favored. Might do more / better if they emphasized him. Probably won't. Was great shooter in limited clutch time. So... he probably should / will mostly watch then this coming season if tanking. Better at PG but plays more SG. Another inefficiency for the tank.

Dort

A favorite of many. Metrics mixed on him from +2 to -4 pts / 100p. Shooting / driving are the possible swing skills; passing and rebounding look below average and not developing as of yet. Play diversity is an issue, with hardly anything but spot-ups and pick n roll ball handler. Need more cuts. Team only won 37% of his stints on court.

Pokusevski

Got to give him time to play or maybe "play my game", but hope he doesn't break or play oblivious and ineffectively. Overall metrics rated him -3 to -9 pts / 100 possessions. though he improved from horrendous overall to still bad last in season. A lot better at home than road (including 92% ft% at home, 44% ft% on road). Usage, scoring and assists increased late in season but turnovers rose too, keeping A/TO at about 0.65 to 1. Massively bad team on / off plus minus start and finish. Can't guard big men or score on them. Another PF or maybe SF. Horrible, hyperactive clutch shooting. What should his usage be? Depends on lineups and results. Usage was only 20%. If he pushes for 25%, he needs to deliver.
Rest was not a help. Very very low ft rate. Needs to try to get some foul calls, some respect from refs. Don't know how much they should want him playmaking in long-run but he will get reps.

K Williams

Likeable worker. Pretty average both sides of court and rated 183rd best overall in league on EPM. Maybe somewhat like Tate in Houston. FT% is a modest issue. More of a PF but crowd there sometimes pushes him to SF. Probably not on Thunder for long. If current 26 year olds are considered too old and tossed out, it will a long climb out of the bottom.

JRE

Good player on good college team. 10 pts / 7 rebs / gm in summer league on not bad shooting. Rebounding is a bit of a concern because of short height / arms but he'll probably have that as a major role and will probably give good effort. I thought he should play center for now and apparently so do the Thunder. Passing ability is there but how many intentional playmaking touches he'll get is uncertain. Usage uncertain. Hopefully Coach goes pretty hard for both. Needs to go more Moreyball with his shot distribution.

Maledon

Not really good at anything but launching 3 pointers. Below average hit rate but this is probably going to be his strongest point. 42% fg% at the rim. Hopefully that improves. Why is it so low? I dunno. Probably not enough lift and / or strength. Somebody who watched in Europe could perhaps say if this has been a long-term problem. Home / road didn't matter for him. Weak A/TO. 2-3 years or less to improve.

Mann

Incomplete. Reason for short summer league unclear. Was he upset by his play or role or something else? Shot 3s and rebounded well in college. Assists and defense not as strong but not sure if they are weak or bad.

Wiggins

11pts / 5 rebounds / gm in summer league was active but not that impressive otherwise. Aggressive / decisive in college highlights. I liked his tape and am fairly hopeful. At 55th pick, there isn't a lot of downside worry.

Bazley

Quite bad on EPM (-4.4 pts / 100p). Worse than as a rookie. 2 way bad. 29% from 3. Not really good at anything beyond defensive rebounding. FT rate, assist rate went up from prior season but block rate was cut in half. Horrible, high frequency clutch shooting (a trait among many he shares with Pokusevski). Played about the same at home and on road. Team was -13pts / 100 possessions when he was on court. -5 on / off. Bad at all positions. Probably a PF though. Little offensive play type diversity. Should be cutting.

Favors

Probably will be close to neutral on impact, unless age or effort become issues. Moderate negative on offense for lack of passing and lane clogging. Modest positive on defense, though nothing special for a big. Not sure when he leaves or sits but it will probably be one or other after All-Star break.

Muscala

Better at PF but was 2/3rds C last season. Probably that or higher this season due to PF glut and tanking. Very good shot in clutch but they may or may not allow that as much after last season and especially the final game. Possible minor trade piece.

Hoard

It is uncertain if he makes open night roster. Better at PF but of course very crowded.

Because of the lack of demonstrated in NBA 3pt game, he has less room for having other issues as well. The high TO rate is a problem. The rebounding isn't enough probably. To stick awhile he probably needs to fix at least one of these concerns. To stick long-term, probably 2 or 3 of the concerns. I'd say the odds are against him lasting long but he has a modest opportunity. Cut the turnovers, grab more rebounds, make a few 3 pointers. I haven't seen what his shot defense stats look like but they better be above average.

Deck

Probably gone, with the question being whether by waiver or trade. We'll know something in a week but maybe not the final outcome that quick or much more of that story. The original back story was prominent but talk about him faded fast. Never got a start. Mildly weak impact on offense and defense. Was unclear on arrival if his was more SF or PF but the answer is probably PF.

Brown

Moderately bad offense, ok D. Surprised he is still possibly in mix.

Krejci

Liked his videotape, handle aggression. No idea what happens with him.

They already paid the buyout. If they don't sign him to a regular contract does Krejci go back to contract on previous team or become unattached? Thunder loses the money but still retains NBA rights? Loses some goodwill from Krejci and maybe his team? Have to buy him out again to bring him in later? Very cloudy.

Roby

Outperformed at every position but especially Center. Alright scorer there, but demolished by opponent scoring and rebounding. No reason to think him at Center will work some day, some way and yet he'll probably get time there to get time and help the tank.

Hall

Summer league stats were weak but not horrendous... except for low 3pt fga rate and 3pt fg%. Presti bought the high school based RSCI rating. Want him to be a tall shooter but not much to show for it yet and not sure how much upside there is.

Bradley / M Brown / Mykhailuk

Bradley was ok, but they don't want OK that much. Brown was probably easier to let go of but they may regret either or both moves in long run. Mykhailiuk did not do enough to impress. Still not signed anywhere to my knowledge.

Micic

Used Thunder for leverage. Pretty sure he isn't coming to Thunder anytime time soon or probably ever. Maybe some other team by trade but Philly might have been right to gave up on hope. He can just stay in Europe. He got his pay bump. He might be decent in NBA but the odds based on history are not great.

2021 Draft Notes

Presti could have had Sengun over Giddey but the Walker buy out made the extra draft picks appealing. Sengun has pretty good chance to make passing on him look bad or real bad but it is over. May write more about that later.

Presti also could have picked at various spots from Wagner, Murphy, Garuba, Butler, Dosunmu, Wieskamp, Ayayi, Garza, McBride, Grimes or Livers or others I also liked some. We'll see which of these passes were regrettable.

Didn't have or make opportunity for Barnes. I'm glad they didn't go for Bouknight or Kuminga. Kinda surprised they didn't take Garuba, though I wasn't that high on him. Passed on a lot of players I liked but I warmed to the actual picks some.

2022 draft notes

Beyond Holmgren and Banchero for top pick if given the opportunity, I really like J Walker and Prkacin. Then look at M Williams, Mayer, Champagnie and Mathurin. More players to learn about as they play next season.

Coach D

Won about 50% more than point margin based expected wins but that was a mixed outcome or a bad result. The real test is ahead and I am cautious about his on court coaching talent. Not that big or strong looking staff either at this time.

If Presti had fired Donovan a year or two early and offered Monty Williams a big salary (say $2 million more than the Suns offered), would he have taken it? I dunno. Maybe not. I probably would have tried. But instead a non-NBA player with no prior NBA head coaching experience was hired, presumably cheap and presumably with limited input on decision-making. That fit pretty well with the past practices and with the anticipated long road back. But was it a long run mistake? We'll see. Meanwhile Williams went to Finals.


Presti

It is a very interesting position he has developed. Pressure to return to glory will build over time.

Free agent possibilities

No indication he tried for Dinwiddie, Lonzo Ball, R Holmes, Caruso, Skylar Mays, Reggie Perry, Josh Hart, Devonte Graham, etc. in free agency.

Mays has 3rd best BPM in 2020 draft class. Liked a lot before draft. still would suggest making an offer sheet on him. More as talent than obvious fit.

Salary management

Want to sign as many guys under current CBA as possible. New TV will jack up the salary scale. Unlikely to buy a second star in free agency but if they want to / need to, do it by summer 2023.

Future draft picks

Need to improve front court.

Shouldn't really expect to hit on many draft picks at all or big, though obviously best chance of anybody to do that. Drafting sometimes work but it often doesn't.

4 factors

Need to improve almost everything besides the already established not fouling. Defensive rebounding was ok. Not sure how it changes. Giddey, Mann, Wiggins and JRE will try to chip in but overall they may slip.

Development / tanking

Need to be careful how obvious it is. More folks may complain.

At least 90% of NBA teams / fans probably expect to win more games next season but not sure about with Thunder fans. Nobody outside team gets vote. SGA may or may not have vote, but he could go rogue if too displeased announced or not).

Future playoffs

Will it be by 2023 or 2025 for playoff return? I dunno. But time is going to drag. Make your own entertainment along the way.

Lineups

There are no bigger minute lineups with remaining personnel that were positive last season.

The only "core" that I see right now to focus on is SGA - Dort - Williams. Plus 32 pts / 100p... in 54 minutes of test. If they ignored to tank, ok I guess. If they ignored it purely from lack of recognition... Better not ignore next season. Better not trade Williams imo.

Pokusevski was SGA's worst pair in main rotation. Apparently heavily because of net turnovers. That could be fluke randomness or not. Find out early next season. Pokusevski even worse with Maledon or both. Best with Jerome but still bad early results. Find his best pair(s) and build his role / fit.

Take away SGA minutes with the departed Hill, Diallo, Horford and the likely to depart eventually K Williams and the 200 plus minutes this season without them were a disaster at over -16 pts / 100 possessions. Even with K Williams was -4 pts / 100p without those other 3. SGA played less than 20% of his minutes with K Williams. What will it be next season? By raw pair data, it probably be a lot higher. But it probably won't be very high due to all the options and prioritization of other guys.

Given Thunder decisions, they should test / play combos of 3 of SGA, Giddey, Dort and Pokusevski for big minutes and see the results. With JRE and somebody else. Hopefully K Williams with the main group gets fair / big test. Giddey - Mann - SG should definitely get a lot of test. Other combos seem promising too; but that one might be hot on offense and about the best context for Giddey to shine.

Where Thunder minutes might start:

SGA 30
Giddey 20
Jerome 15
Mann 15
Maledon 10
Krejci 10
Hoard 5
Hall 0
Dort 25
Pokusevski 20
Wiggins 10
Williams 20
Muscala 10
Deck 5
Roby 0
JRE 15
Favors 10
Bazley 20

Where Thunder minutes might be headed (or alternative start):

SGA 30
Giddey 25
Jerome 15
Mann 20
Krejci 15
Dort 25
Pokusevski 20
Wiggins 10
Williams 25
JRE 30
Bazley 25

If I did what I want, it might be close to this:

SGA 30
Giddey 15
Jerome 25
Mann 20
Krejci 15
Dort 20
Pokusevski 20
Wiggins 15
Williams 25
Muscala 10
JRE 25
Bazley 20

The relatively low minutes for Giddey would flow from wanting him to watch the game, reduce early injury risk, make him earn anything more, max Jerome (to convince to keep or for trade value) and test run Mann and Krejci.

No, I don't expect they will be this stingy. Do they give him 30 min. / gm right away? They might. There is a middle ground.

Overall design

Thunder probably have the biggest basketball analytics staff in league now and at minimum are top 3 based on publicly recognized staff. Not seeing much of a design around SGA yet though.

Design to win a title

Looking at 7 key performance indicators for teams last season vs. the average of 8 of the best teams over last 3 regular seasons, Jazz exceeded the averages in all cases. Nets and Clips, 3. Suns, Bucks, Sixers, Nuggets missed on 4. Lakers missed on 5.

The most common misses were on net SRS, own ft% and def efg% and def rtg.

The key indicators and recent top team averages are:

SRS 6
Off Rtg 115
Def Rtg 109
Own FT rate 24%
3pta rate 39%
Own efg% 55.3%
Opp efg% 51.8%

Perfection is not required to win title. The last 3 champs were below the performance on 3.67 elements.

7 teams had 4 misses or less last season. If they stay the same or get better by these criteria, they are a first tier contender. Lakers will have to get better. Magic missed on all 7. Thunder 5. 5 misses is probably pretty common.

Obviously the 7 indicators have many connections and there is more offense than defense. Maybe I should have included defense rebounding. Maybe.

I'd probably try to engineer a team that could eventually exceed on at least 5 of the 7 performance indicators.

The end for this review but just the beginning of the new Thunder story.

Plenty of possible plot turns. Will be interesting but also probably slow. Enjoy what you can.

[Crow]

SGA

Stalled out?

Try massive decline so far. Now 74th best in league on EPM. Defensive weakness still chops almost 50% off his offensive positive.

40% ft rate is now just under 30%.
Giddey handling a lot is probably part of the reason. 42% from 3 is now 32% and his 3pta rate has been cut in half. Long 2 attempts up 20%. Assists rate down 20%. A/TO is not much over 1. Team assist rate is still low.

[Crow]

Other player updates, maybe later. Or check my Twitter.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bballstrategy

[Mike G]

Thunder ORtg is off by 3.0 from last year, but their DRtg is improved by 6.2.
Shai numbers do look precipitously down, though his Stl/TO is better this year. Others would seem to be more dis-improved:

Code: Select all

eW+    OKC        Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484  21: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.43   Dort       .545   17.6   4.6   1.8   .87     .506   13.7   4.2   1.6   .49
.16  Pokusevski  .400    7.9   8.4   2.5   .40     .428    8.5   6.7   2.6   .13
.11   Muscala    .632   20.2   7.1    .9  1.41     .595   18.3   7.2   1.3  1.16
.09   Jerome     .514   14.7   2.8   2.6   .90     .581   14.8   4.0   4.5   .69
.07   Bazley     .428    9.7   8.0   1.8   .56     .484   12.3   7.9   1.7   .51
.05   Roby       .560   15.1   6.7   1.8   .86     .547   11.6   8.2   2.2   .64

-.02   Deck      .643   11.8   3.4   1.1   .33     .538   12.3   6.6   3.4   .83
-.15   Shai      .510   19.7   4.9   4.1  1.27     .611   23.6   4.8   5.1  1.42
-.17   Maledon   .278    3.0   3.6   2.6  -.51     .483   10.3   4.1   3.7   .16
-.27  K Williams .477    8.9   5.3   2.5   .35     .594   12.4   6.7   3.1   .75
-.40   Favors    .543   11.8   9.5    .8   .87 Uta .652   15.0  13.3   1.5  1.70

They may be the youngest team in history (?) or at least in several years. Rookies have gotten 26% of minutes thus far. Maybe this is a lot of adjustment to their system?
At 23, SGE is the geezer in the starting lineup.

[Crow]

Yes, they are almost certainly youngest team in history. I checked 30 years and am pretty confident about the rest.

Magic are close this season. Close enough the order could possibly switch.

Thanks for your yr to yr change estimates.

Jerome has been disappointing as a shooter and assist generator but I guess super low turnovers, more usage and more trips to the FT line help offset.

One of few with positive minus plus on court (barely) and great on / off (a lot in comparison with Giddey).

The rebounding and defensive improvements are notable, though mainly with lineups heavy with bench players. The starters do very poorly. Clear worst team on 1st quarter results.

[Crow]

Key criteria for top contenders from first post:

SRS 6
Off Rtg 115
Def Rtg 109
Own FT rate 24%
3pta rate 39%
Own efg% 55.3%
Opp efg% 51.8%

Jazz, Warriors and Heat all do really well with either just one miss or barely misses on another. Nobody is hitting 115 offensive rating, at least yet.

Someone else could win title, but these 3 look like the best prepared contenders to me. Using this approach, I find a pretty big distinction between first tier and second (or third).

Heat might not quite have enough offensive punch. Can / will they do anything to juice it up? We'll see.

I haven't focused on differences in playoffs vs. regular season numbers yet.