eWins 2022

[Mike G]

After just 4 or 5 games, no slackers sneaking into the top tiers.
Ranked by equivalent wins added in 82 games at current rates and minutes.

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
19.4   Nikola Jokić   Den  .733   39.8  17.2   4.7   2.5   5.0   .3   3.85
17.0   Kevin Durant   Brk  .618   32.7   9.3   4.6   1.0   2.5  1.0   2.84
16.9   Antetokounmpo  Mil  .592   30.9  13.2   6.8   1.2   3.6  2.4   3.20
15.9   Stephen Curry  GSW  .589   32.0   7.8   5.9   1.6   4.4   .4   2.55
15.7   Karl-A Towns   Min  .683   35.9   7.4   4.0   1.3   4.9  2.7   2.71

15.7   Jimmy Butler   Mia  .547   28.8   6.8   5.3   3.7   2.4   .3   2.65
14.2   Rudy Gobert    Uta  .706   28.2  19.7    .9    .6   3.3   .9   2.69
13.8   Julius Randle  NYK  .509   22.0  11.6   6.4   1.0   3.5  1.4   2.17
13.6   Ja Morant      Mem  .639   31.1   5.5   6.7   1.7   5.5   .4   2.22
13.4   Paul George    LAC  .552   27.2   8.1   4.0   4.3   3.6   .3   2.38

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13.1   Joel Embiid    Phl  .563   26.5  11.7   4.7   1.5   3.2  2.2   2.56
12.9   Anthony Davis  LAL  .542   23.2  10.4   2.0    .6   1.7  2.3   1.99
12.8   Trae Young     Atl  .531   27.0   2.9   9.1   1.3   3.2   .2   2.19
12.8   Zach LaVine    Chi  .623   31.5   5.6   4.6    .4   3.2   .6   2.20
12.4   CJ McCollum    Por  .629   30.8   5.2   3.0   2.2   3.4  1.7   2.23

12.2   Bam Adebayo    Mia  .566   27.6  14.7   1.7   1.0   3.0   .3   2.34
11.8  Harrison Barnes Sac  .656   25.3   8.9   1.8    .7   1.7   .0   1.85
11.6   Luka Dončić    Dal  .513   24.5   8.5   7.4    .8   5.4   .8   1.90
11.5   Miles Bridges  Cha  .642   25.4   8.5   1.5   1.8   1.9   .6   1.92
11.4   John Collins   Atl  .693   26.5  12.1   2.8   1.3   2.3  1.0   2.31

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
11.2 Montrezl Harrell Was  .681   24.1  10.4   2.1    .7    .7  1.4   2.12
11.1  Anthony Edwards Min  .521   26.0   7.1   3.4   1.0   2.6   .3   1.83
10.7 Domantas Sabonis Ind  .692   20.8  10.6   3.2   1.4   3.5   .4   1.60
10.6   DeMar DeRozan  Chi  .502   23.5   5.3   4.7   1.1   1.7   .6   1.79
10.4  Jo. Valančiūnas NOP  .506   16.1  14.3   2.5    .9   1.1  1.3   1.76

10.4  Dejounte Murray SAS  .449   15.0   9.5   7.2   2.1   2.3   .4   1.74
10.4  Nikola Vučević  Chi  .488   16.9  11.3   4.0   2.2   2.2  1.1   1.79
10.0   Tobias Harris  Phl  .571   21.0   9.6   4.2    .2   1.8   .4   1.76
10.0   Tyler Herro    Mia  .515   27.3   8.0   4.4    .0   3.2   .0   1.92
9.8   Malcolm Brogdon Ind  .542   21.0   6.9   5.7    .6   3.4   .8   1.56

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.8   Christian Wood  Hou  .566   19.9  11.8   1.8    .9   1.6  1.1   1.74
9.8  Donovan Mitchell Uta  .503   26.0   3.6   6.1   2.0   3.6   .3   1.84
9.7   Jakob Poeltl    SAS  .645   17.9  12.4   2.8   1.1   2.0  1.6   1.73
9.7   Jayson Tatum    Bos  .510   22.1   7.3   3.3    .4   2.5  1.0   1.50
9.5   LaMelo Ball     Cha  .547   22.9   7.5   6.5   2.5   3.7   .3   1.97

9.5   Richaun Holmes  Sac  .753   19.6  13.7   2.2    .7   1.0  2.7   2.05
9.4   Brandon Ingram  NOP  .547   24.2   6.8   3.8    .4   3.7   .6   1.48
8.3   OG Anunoby      Tor  .500   19.6   6.1   2.4   2.2   1.9   .8   1.40
8.1   Saddiq Bey      Det  .549   18.6  10.2   2.4    .8   2.2   .3   1.41
8.1   Jarrett Allen   Cle  .720   19.4  10.1   1.0   1.4   1.7   .9   1.53
8.1 Spencer Dinwiddie Was  .568   25.6   5.5   6.9    .3   1.9   .3   2.05

#42-50: VanVleet, Nurkic, Shai G-A, Harden, Mobley, St Adams, Booker, Paul, Middleton
51-60: Lillard, D Graham, Cole Anthony, Bojan B, Barton, Kuzma, Clarkson, Brunson, Ayton, Bane

Raw totals nabbed from this site:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... otals.html

[Mike G]

season at 15%

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
18.6   Nikola Jokić   Den  .652   34.7  16.1   6.4   1.8   4.0  1.0   3.69
17.5   Kevin Durant   Brk  .668   36.8   8.4   5.3    .6   3.6   .7   2.95
17.3   Stephen Curry  GSW  .625   35.8   6.8   6.5   1.5   3.7   .7   3.00
15.2   Antetokounmpo  Mil  .561   28.8  12.7   6.0   1.2   3.4  2.0   2.92
14.0   Paul George    LAC  .558   28.7   7.5   5.2   2.7   4.7   .5   2.33

13.0   Luka Dončić    Dal  .518   24.7   8.6   7.6   1.4   4.5   .6   2.20
12.9   Jimmy Butler   Mia  .609   28.8   6.2   5.0   2.4   2.1   .4   2.50
12.5   Rudy Gobert    Uta  .700   21.8  18.8   1.0   1.1   2.7  2.2   2.37
12.4   Anthony Davis  LAL  .539   23.3  10.9   2.5   1.4   2.5  2.5   2.09
12.3   Karl-A Towns   Min  .628   25.9   9.1   3.1   1.9   3.7  1.2   2.05

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
12.3   James Harden   Brk  .591   23.1   7.9   9.2   1.3   5.2   .9   2.10
11.7   DeMar DeRozan  Chi  .562   26.6   5.7   3.7   1.0   1.9   .4   1.94
11.6 Donovan Mitchell Uta  .546   30.0   4.9   5.6   1.7   3.2   .2   2.28
11.3   Zach LaVine    Chi  .600   28.4   5.7   3.7    .6   3.0   .4   1.90
11.3   Ja Morant      Mem  .559   24.7   6.5   6.3   1.5   4.3   .3   1.89

11.2  Jo. Valančiūnas NOP  .578   19.5  15.0   2.5    .8   2.3  1.0   1.95
10.9 Montrezl Harrell Was  .689   25.6  10.5   2.1    .7   1.6  1.4   2.15
10.7   Bam Adebayo    Mia  .575   23.9  13.3   2.3   1.7   3.6   .5   2.08
10.6  Dejounte Murray SAS  .499   17.3   8.0   6.9   2.2   2.4   .5   1.83
10.4   Julius Randle  NYK  .518   19.7  10.3   4.8    .7   3.3  1.0   1.70

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.4 Domantas Sabonis Ind  .612   19.3  11.7   3.3   1.6   3.4   .4   1.68
10.2   LaMelo Ball    Cha  .535   18.9   8.2   6.9   2.3   3.2   .5   1.88
10.1   Chris Paul     Phx  .578   16.1   4.8  10.1   2.7   2.7   .6   1.86
10.1   Jayson Tatum   Bos  .479   20.8   8.5   3.0   1.0   2.5   .9   1.58
10.0   Trae Young     Atl  .542   23.2   3.6   8.2   1.0   4.0   .2   1.69

9.9  Harrison Barnes  Sac  .645   22.2   7.9   2.0   1.1   1.9   .1   1.58
9.7   Jarrett Allen   Cle  .669   19.1  12.4   1.8   1.4   2.2  1.1   1.73
9.4   Fred VanVleet   Tor  .552   18.5   5.0   6.1   1.3   2.6   .4   1.43
9.1   Devin Booker    Phx  .525   22.9   6.6   4.9   1.1   3.6   .3   1.63
9.1   Miles Bridges   Cha  .544   18.6   7.0   2.9   1.7   1.7   .9   1.47

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.1   Cole Anthony    Orl  .569   20.2   7.5   4.6   1.5   3.1   .3   1.57
9.0  Shai G-Alexander OKC  .533   22.7   4.8   4.1   1.0   2.7   .6   1.50
9.0  Anthony Edwards  Min  .524   23.0   5.6   2.9   1.7   3.5   .5   1.45
8.8   Richaun Holmes  Sac  .707   21.1  14.2   1.6    .7   2.5  1.7   1.91
8.8   Bradley Beal    Was  .492   23.0   5.5   5.4   1.2   4.1   .5   1.57

8.7   Myles Turner    Ind  .665   20.1  11.3   1.3    .7   2.2  4.1   1.79
8.6   Jusuf Nurkić    Por  .610   17.2  16.5   3.1   2.1   3.3   .9   2.01
8.5   Christian Wood  Hou  .515   16.0  12.3   2.1    .9   1.9   .9   1.46
8.4   John Collins    Atl  .640   18.7   9.9   2.1    .9   1.3  1.0   1.55
8.4   Damian Lillard  Por  .478   17.8   4.5   7.8    .6   2.6   .2   1.40
8.4 Russell Westbrook LAL  .484   17.1   8.4   7.4   1.4   5.5   .2   1.36

42-50: Barton, Embiid, Herro, McCollum, Anunoby, W Carter Jr, E Mobley, Vucevic, Jaylen Brown
51-60: Dinwiddie, Maxey, Brogdon, Horford, Poole, Wiggins, Kuzma, Draymond, S Barnes, Robt. Williams

[Mike G]

b-r.com has their MVP Tracker page going:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
They give weight (as do voters, historically) to team winning %. This boosts Steph and depresses Giannis.

Code: Select all

. mvp?   tm   tmW%  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   Prob
Jokic   Den   .643   32   35.4   .354  14.5   .432
Curry   GSW   .846   34   26.9   .276   8.5   .240
Durant  Brk   .714   35   29.6   .284   8.4   .154
Butler  Mia   .643   33   29.0   .323   9.8   .044
Harrell Was   .769  28.5  28.3   .332   7.2   .037

Paul    Phx   .769   32   23.7   .250   5.7   .034
DeRozan Chi   .714   35   25.2   .237   3.9   .025
Harden  Brk   .714   34   20.7   .173   3.3   .015
Gobert  Uta   .615   31   25.1   .276   4.2   .010
Giannis Mil   .429   33   29.1   .228   8.9   .007

Everyone else totals .002 chance.
Jokic has among the highest numbers ever seen across the board. Nobody close in any column. Yet there's a 57% chance someone else wins it.
Before going to the Wiz, 'Trez was last seen holding down the bench in the Lakers' 1st-round playoff loss to Phx. Expected to get 8-14 mpg for a bad team, he's 3rd in the league in Win Shares, 6th in VORP ... in limited minutes.

[Mike G]

One day later, the top 10 are the same; but the order has shifted at the top:

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mvp?    PER   WS/48   BPM   Prob
Curry   28.4   .302   9.9   .415
Jokic   35.4   .354  14.5   .382
Durant  28.4   .259   7.7   .051
...

[Mike G]

Jokic has missed more games (4) than he has in the last 3+ seasons. At this rate, he'll get about 64 games.
Season at 21.6%

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e82     per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
16.2   Stephen Curry   GSW  .630   35.1   6.4   6.7   1.6   3.5   .7   2.97
16.0   Antetokounmpo   Mil  .566   29.9  12.5   6.1   1.3   3.6  2.1   3.03
15.0   Nikola Jokić    Den  .658   33.2  15.2   6.4   1.4   3.6  1.0   3.48
14.8   Kevin Durant    Brk  .648   33.2   7.6   5.0    .5   3.1   .7   2.62
13.3   Paul George     LAC  .539   27.4   7.6   5.0   1.9   4.2   .5   2.18

12.6   Rudy Gobert     Uta  .716   22.2  17.7    .9   1.0   2.2  2.4   2.40
12.4   Anthony Davis   LAL  .559   23.2  10.2   2.7   1.3   2.2  2.3   2.07
12.4   Karl-A Towns    Min  .625   26.4   9.1   3.1   1.5   3.6  1.2   2.08
12.3   James Harden    Brk  .591   22.9   7.5   8.8   1.6   5.2   .8   2.06
12.3   Jimmy Butler    Mia  .607   28.7   6.5   5.3   2.4   2.1   .4   2.55

e82     11-20           tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
12.1   DeMar DeRozan   Chi  .579   27.8   5.3   3.9   1.1   2.3   .5   2.02
12.0   Jayson Tatum    Bos  .512   24.6   8.3   3.2   1.0   2.5   .9   1.91
11.0   Ja Morant       Mem  .558   23.9   6.3   6.2   1.4   3.6   .3   1.90
10.9   Zach LaVine     Chi  .591   27.9   5.7   3.5    .6   3.0   .4   1.83
10.8   Trae Young      Atl  .559   25.2   3.8   8.2   1.0   4.2   .1   1.86

10.8  Montrezl Harrell Was  .691   25.5  10.7   2.6    .7   1.4  1.0   2.22
10.7   Luka Dončić     Dal  .516   24.0   8.4   7.7   1.3   4.5   .7   2.16
10.6  Domantas Sabonis Ind  .621   20.6  12.0   3.5   1.4   3.3   .4   1.83
10.6  Donovan Mitchell Uta  .537   27.2   5.0   5.2   1.9   3.3   .2   2.05
10.6 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP  .590   20.2  13.9   2.4    .6   2.3  1.1   1.90

e82     21-30           tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.6   LaMelo Ball     Cha  .525   18.9   8.2   7.0   2.1   3.5   .5   1.87
10.4  Dejounte Murray  SAS  .487   16.2   8.4   6.7   2.2   2.4   .5   1.76
10.2   Julius Randle   NYK  .518   19.9  10.2   4.9    .7   3.5   .7   1.69
9.7    Chris Paul      Phx  .563   16.2   4.3  10.0   2.4   2.6   .4   1.79
9.7    Devin Booker    Phx  .536   24.4   5.9   4.6   1.0   3.0   .3   1.74

9.1  Russell Westbrook LAL  .503   17.7   8.3   7.6   1.5   5.1   .2   1.52
9.1   Bam Adebayo      Mia  .566   22.2  12.4   2.9   1.5   3.2   .5   1.96
8.8   John Collins     Atl  .636   19.1   9.1   2.3    .9   1.2  1.5   1.61
8.6   Anthony Edwards  Min  .529   22.1   6.0   3.0   1.5   3.5   .7   1.42
8.6   Damian Lillard   Por  .518   19.6   4.1   7.3    .7   2.7   .4   1.51

e82     31-40           tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.5   Tyler Herro      Mia  .565   24.0   6.2   3.7    .7   2.9   .0   1.57
8.4   Miles Bridges    Cha  .541   18.2   6.9   2.7   1.3   1.8   .8   1.34
8.1   Bradley Beal     Was  .512   23.1   5.3   5.8   1.1   4.2   .4   1.59
8.1   Richaun Holmes   Sac  .720   20.9  12.4   1.3    .5   2.1  1.3   1.73
8.0   Harrison Barnes  Sac  .619   19.8   7.3   2.2   1.1   2.2   .2   1.32

8.0   Tyrese Maxey     Phl  .593   19.3   3.6   4.3    .8   1.2   .6   1.31
8.0   Andrew Wiggins   GSW  .586   25.6   5.3   1.9    .9   2.3   .6   1.59
8.0   CJ McCollum      Por  .542   19.7   4.4   4.0   1.1   2.0   .8   1.33
7.8   Fred VanVleet    Tor  .544   17.0   4.9   5.8   1.5   2.9   .6   1.27
7.8   Jusuf Nurkić     Por  .608   15.7  16.7   2.8   1.8   3.0   .9   1.89

#41-50: J Allen, Capela, Cole Anthony, Brogdon, Porzingis, Horford, Poole, Myles Turner, Shai, C Wood
51-60: Brunson, Schroder, Draymond, Dinwiddie, D-Lo, Barton, Ayton, Fox, Wendell Carter Jr, Kuzma

[Mike G]

Today's b-r.com MVP Tracker looks a lot like the previous post.

Code: Select all

Prob   mvp?      tmW%   Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl  Blk
.294   Curry    .826   27.5   5.7   6.5   1.8   .5
.223   Giannis  .625   27.6  11.8   6.0   1.1  1.7
.168   Jokic    .500   26.1  13.6   6.4   1.1   .8
.099   Durant   .696   28.6   7.7   5.5    .6   .7
.062   Paul     .826   14.3   4.0  10.1   2.0   .3

.044   Butler   .583   23.6   5.8   5.3   2.1   .3
.039   Gobert   .696   14.9  14.7   1.0   1.0  2.3
.032   Harden   .696   20.6   7.9   9.5   1.5   .7
.022   Ayton    .826   16.5  11.2   1.4    .8   .7
.019   DeRozan  .667   26.4   5.3   4.1    .9   .4

Steph's chances were about twice as great a week or so ago. Nobody else was even 10% then.

[Mike G]

Season is at 31%

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
15.7   Stephen Curry  GSW  .609   34.0   5.9   6.6   1.7   3.4   .5   2.79
15.1   Nikola Jokić   Den  .640   31.7  15.3   7.1   1.4   3.7   .8   3.36
15.0   Antetokounmpo  Mil  .581   31.5  12.7   6.0   1.2   3.7  1.9   3.06
13.9   Kevin Durant   Brk  .618   31.4   7.6   5.0    .7   3.1   .7   2.44
12.3   Trae Young     Atl  .572   27.5   4.2   8.9   1.0   4.3   .1   2.11

12.3   James Harden   Brk  .570   21.9   8.0   8.9   1.5   5.1   .7   1.99
12.2   Rudy Gobert    Uta  .710   20.9  17.4   1.1    .9   2.2  2.6   2.24
12.1   Anthony Davis  LAL  .561   23.2  10.1   2.6   1.3   2.1  2.2   2.05
11.7   Jayson Tatum   Bos  .521   24.4   8.8   3.4   1.0   2.8   .8   1.88
11.5   Karl-A Towns   Min  .617   26.6   9.5   3.2   1.2   3.7  1.1   2.03

e82     11-20          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
11.3 Domantas Sabonis Ind  .636   21.0  13.1   3.9   1.2   3.3   .4   1.94
11.2  Dejounte Murray SAS  .502   17.7   8.6   7.4   1.9   2.6   .4   1.88
11.1   Zach LaVine    Chi  .590   27.8   5.6   4.0    .6   2.8   .4   1.86
11.1   DeMar DeRozan  Chi  .580   27.9   5.6   3.8   1.0   2.1   .4   1.99
11.1 Donovan Mitchell Uta  .560   28.6   4.6   5.4   1.7   3.4   .2   2.08

10.8   Luka Dončić    Dal  .535   25.5   8.3   8.1   1.2   4.9   .5   2.18
10.7   Paul George    LAC  .521   24.7   7.3   5.1   2.0   4.4   .4   1.89
10.4  Jo. Valančiūnas NOP  .588   20.8  14.2   2.5    .7   2.5  1.1   1.95
10.2   Jarrett Allen  Cle  .702   23.0  12.5   1.9   1.1   2.4  1.4   2.02
10.0   Chris Paul     Phx  .573   17.1   4.3  10.2   2.2   2.8   .3   1.81

e82     21-30          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.6   Julius Randle   NYK  .517   18.9  10.1   5.0    .8   3.5   .8   1.59
9.4   LaMelo Ball     Cha  .533   18.9   8.4   7.6   2.0   3.6   .5   1.87
9.3   Jimmy Butler    Mia  .591   25.8   6.6   5.3   2.7   2.1   .3   2.33
9.0 Russell Westbrook LAL  .516   18.2   7.6   7.5   1.3   4.7   .2   1.47
8.9   John Collins    Atl  .636   20.0   8.9   2.2    .8   1.2  1.6   1.61

8.9   Devin Booker    Phx  .556   26.8   5.4   4.5   1.0   3.1   .3   1.84
8.6   Jusuf Nurkić    Por  .615   19.3  15.6   3.0   1.6   3.0   .8   2.03
8.6   Joel Embiid     Phl  .548   26.3  12.4   4.3   1.1   3.0  1.6   2.48
8.4   Christian Wood  Hou  .527   16.7  12.8   2.3    .7   2.0  1.4   1.55
8.3   Clint Capela    Atl  .562   13.2  15.6   1.4   1.1    .8  1.8   1.63

e82     31-40          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.2   Ja Morant       Mem  .554   25.3   6.3   6.6   1.5   3.6   .3   2.02
8.2  Montrezl Harrell Was  .674   22.2  10.3   2.5    .8   1.7   .9   1.82
8.1  Anthony Edwards  Min  .526   20.1   5.7   3.4   1.7   3.4   .7   1.31
8.1   Darius Garland  Cle  .583   22.2   3.1   7.2   1.3   4.2   .1   1.48
8.0   Andrew Wiggins  GSW  .584   24.7   5.4   2.0    .9   2.0   .6   1.54

8.0   Fred VanVleet   Tor  .559   18.3   4.9   5.3   1.4   3.1   .6   1.28
7.9  Malcolm Brogdon  Ind  .557   20.6   6.0   5.6   1.0   2.4   .5   1.60
7.8   Miles Bridges   Cha  .561   17.6   7.0   2.8   1.1   1.9   .9   1.24
7.7   Jordan Poole    GSW  .576   24.0   3.9   4.1   1.2   3.0   .3   1.49
7.7   Bradley Beal    Was  .517   21.8   4.8   5.3    .9   3.5   .3   1.41

#41-50: Shai, W Carter, Draymond, Richaun, Porzingis, Ayton, Jerami Grant, Bam, D Fox, M Turner
51-60: Horford, Conley, McCollum, J Jackson, LeBron, D Lo, Zubac, Lillard, Maxey, Vucevic

[Crow]

DARKO projection has Sabonis at a modest positive and negative momentum.

DRIP has him at a moderate / higher projection. Don't know about momentum there.

Most public metrics have his current impact in the +2-3 range. EPM is over +4.

GMs may have different appraisals, using these metrics, others (possibly private)or none. Judgment of players and / or metrics to apply.


Tatum varies from at least +1 to +4 as well.

Doncic, at least 0 to +4.

[Mike G]

MVP Tracker update. Steph had a bad outing; Durant went for 51 and is back innit.

Code: Select all

Prob    mvp     tm   tmW%   Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl  Blk   TO
.235  Giannis  Mil  .643   27.3  11.7   5.9   1.1  1.6   3.3
.213   Curry   GSW  .808   27.1   5.6   6.3   1.7   .4   3.1
.210   Jokic   Den  .500   26.5  13.5   7.2   1.2   .8   3.4
.118   Durant  Brk  .704   29.4   7.6   5.6    .7   .8   3.0
.081   Paul    Phx  .840   14.4   3.9  10.2   2.0   .4   2.4

.068   Gobert  Uta  .731   15.1  14.6    .9    .8  2.2   1.8
.033   Harden  Brk  .704   20.8   7.9   9.6   1.4   .7   5.0
.014  J Allen  Cle  .571   17.3  11.2   1.8   1.0  1.4   2.0
.014  Mitchell Uta  .731   24.8   3.8   5.0   1.7   .2   3.0
.014  DeRozan  Chi  .630   26.4   5.3   4.1    .9   .4   2.0

Nobody else with any chance.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Last year, the Joker's MVP competition all missed significant games -- Embiid, LeBron, Giannis, etc -- so he was an easy pick.
But his per-minute stats -- PER, WS/48, BPM, or anything else one could find -- should have made it overwhelming in any case.

Combine the top 10 player-seasons of the last 2 years, and as far ahead of the pack he was last year (if this makes any sense), Jokic is that far ahead of his own 20-21 performance this season.

Code: Select all

xyz     mvp     yr   ts%    PER   WS/48  BPM
13.01  Jokic   22   .654   33.9   .304  14.1
11.56  Jokic    21  .647   31.3   .301  11.7
9.89   Giannis 22   .603   31.1   .273   8.5
9.15   Embiid   21  .636   30.3   .266   7.2
9.09   Giannis  21  .633   29.2   .244   8.8

8.34   Butler   21  .607   26.5   .255   7.5
8.04   Curry   22   .608   24.6   .245   8.3
7.63   Gobert  22   .744   25.2   .287   4.8
7.54   Curry    21  .655   26.3   .201   8.1
7.53   Durant  22   .632   26.1   .222   6.9

xyz=sqrt((PER-5.5)*ws/48*(BPM+5.5))

[bchaikin]

Denver is 13-13 with an average per game point differential of 0.0 pts/g.

Utah is 19-7 with an average per game point differential of +11.1 pts/g.

Utah is the better defensive team, and has a far better ORtg as a team than Denver does.

So what does Jokic having a BPM 3 times better than Gobert tell us? Or a better WS/48?

stats.nba.com shows Jokic on defense allowing a 51% FG% (190/370), Gobert a 39% FG% (188/479).

[Mike G]

Gobert is 5 times 1st-team all-Defense and 3 time DPOY. Jokic will likely never be one of those.
Gobert likely has better players around him? Utah is +13.4 pts/100 poss when he's on the court, and Denver is +13.7 when Jokic is playing.
But Gobert has made his team 5 pts/100 better (than without him), while the Nuggets are 30 pts/100 worse without Jokic.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... ayoffs_pbp
If that's a meaningful difference, then his team without him is worst in the league by a country mile. He raises them from near 0% winning to 50%-ish.

Gobert has made 74% of his shots, 6.2 FG per game, and 75% have been assisted. That leaves 1.6 unassisted FG per game -- putbacks, largely?
Jokic hits effectively 66% of his shots, 11.3 FG/G of which some 40% are unassisted -- 4.5 per G

If we should see a playoff series between these teams, the participants may well rank like this:

Code: Select all

Den-Uta   tm   BPM   WS/48   PER
Jokic    Den   14.6  .312   34.4
Gobert    Uta   4.8  .287   25.2
Mitchell  Uta   3.7  .179   22.4
Conley    Uta   3.6  .215   19.1
O'Neale   Uta   2.7  .145   12.4

Ingles    Uta   1.8  .152   12.9
Barton   Den    1.2  .082   15.5
Gay       Uta   1.1  .164   16.6
Bogie     Uta   0.7  .162   16.7
Whiteside Uta   0.4  .237   22.3

Gordon   Den   -0.7  .122   15.8
Campazzo Den   -1.3  .096   12.1
...

Nuggs have one or two maybe-average players around Jokic.
Jazz have roughly 8 of the 10 best players.

So what does Jokic having a BPM 3 times better than Gobert tell us?

That's not a practical ratio. You can't use a ratio of BPM 1.5 vs 0.1 -- or 0.1 vs -0.1

[bchaikin]

Based on their W-L records and average per game point differentials, Utah is on pace for some 60-70 wins, Denver for 42-43 wins.

If Gobert had been playing for Denver all season and Jokic for Utah, and if supposedly Jokic was the better player, as eWins and BPM appear to be saying, what would the projected W-L records be of the two teams?

You do realize that Utah is 3rd worst in the league in ast/fgm, but has the league's top offense (highest offpts/poss).

[Mike G]

BPM really loves Jokic over Gobert, by 9.8 pts/100 poss
They both play about 32 mpg, or 2/3 of a game, so a team with Jokic should be 6.6 pts/G better than with Gobert.
This should result in about 14 more wins in 82 games.

eWins likes Joker by ~3 eWins, which by magical math would result in another 6 wins over Gobert.
Win Shares rates them closer yet, maybe 2-3 wins difference in a season.

With Hassan Whiteside as backup/alternative, Gobert adds about 4.5 points to Utah's offense and half a point to defense.
Relative to -- Jeff Green? -- at center, Denver prefers Jokic by 14 pts/100 on offense and 16 on defense. Go figure.

...Utah is 3rd worst in the league in ast/fgm,...

I don't know if higher or lower is better or worse. The Pelicans have one of the highest Ast/FG ratios and bottom-5 offense.
Seeing Utah opponents have the lowest Ast/FG ratio in the league, maybe their scorekeepers are just stingy with assists?

[bchaikin]

BPM really loves Jokic over Gobert, by 9.8 pts/100 poss... so a team with Jokic should be 6.6 pts/G better than with Gobert.
This should result in about 14 more wins in 82 games...

so a utah team with jokic instead of gobert would be on pace to, what, some 60+14=72 wins or 70+ 14 = 80+ wins?...

and a denver team with gobert 42/43-14 = 28/29 wins?...

eWins likes Joker by ~3 eWins, which by magical math would result in another 6 wins over Gobert.

so now utah/jokic at 60+6=66 wins and denver/gobert at 42/43-6=36/37 wins?...

Nuggs have one or two maybe-average players around Jokic. Jazz have roughly 8 of the 10 best players.

as of a week ago denver without jokic's stats on offense as a team was shooting 52% on 2s and 34% on 3s, utah without gobert 55%-56% on 2s and 37% on 3s. their eFG% of 55.7% was best in the league, denver's eFG% of 51.7% ranked 19th...

yet - with jokic's "great" passing shouldn't this be the other way around? or does his great passing not make his teammates shoot better?...

basketball-reference now (not a week ago) shows with gobert on the court utah is shooting a 58.7% eFG%, denver with jokic a 57.2% eFG%...

I don't know if higher or lower is better or worse. The Pelicans have one of the highest Ast/FG ratios and bottom-5 offense. Seeing Utah opponents have the lowest Ast/FG ratio in the league, maybe their scorekeepers are just stingy with assists?

oh i get it - this is an artifact of poor stats keeping...

if utah does not need more assists or more passing to be the top offensive team, which they clearly do not, what else does jokic bring to the table that the jazz would win more with him than with gobert? it's clearly not defense...

and while gobert does not score as much as jokic he shoots better with far fewer turnovers, thus is more efficient on offense...

i contend that gobert's higher offensive efficiency and better offensive rebounding, and far far better defense, are the key seasons why utah was 19-7 at that time and denver was 13-13, i.e. gobert is the significantly better player in terms of helping his team win more games, despite jokic's high PER, BPM, and eWins...

[Mike G]

.. denver without jokic's stats on offense as a team was shooting 52% on 2s and 34% on 3s, utah without gobert 55%-56% on 2s and 37% on 3s. their eFG% of 55.7% was best in the league, denver's eFG% of 51.7% ranked 19th...

yet - with jokic's "great" passing shouldn't this be the other way around? or does his great passing not make his teammates shoot better?...

I am having trouble understanding this question.
Are you saying that if Jokic is a great passer, his team should therefore be the best shooting team in the league?
The normal question here is: how much better do they shoot with him on the floor than without him?
Nuggets shoot .087 better eFG% when he's on the floor. Part of that is his own shooting.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 22/on-off/

Their #2 and #3 guys are out with injury. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter were #2 and 3 -- in Win Shares, VORP, BPM, OWS, OBPM -- last year. Jokic can't turn Monte Morris and Will Barton into those guys; nor can he turn them into Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.

It's hard to say whether Jokic would make the Jazz win 14 more games or 6 more, or not even as many. They're a team built around Gobert, who doesn't have to do much on offense. Denver with Gobert instead of Jokic would likely have trouble getting points.

Jazz opponents, for whatever reason, have shot .005 better when Gobert is on the floor. Perhaps just a garbage-time artifact.