Rookies 2022

[Mike G]

At not quite 10% of the season, rookies project to total 51 eWins -- the East getting 30 of those.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.3  Scottie Barnes  Tor  .577   20.2   9.6   2.0    .7   2.6   .6   1.37
6.0   Evan Mobley    Cle  .533   14.1   8.6   2.2   1.3   2.0  1.5   1.04
5.9   Josh Giddey    OKC  .491   12.3   6.7   6.4   1.9   2.6   .9   1.18
4.9   Franz Wagner   Orl  .593   16.5   4.0   1.7   1.5   1.0   .6    .89
4.6   Chris Duarte   Ind  .545   16.4   4.8   2.0   1.1   2.0   .1    .77

3.1  Alperen Şengün  Hou  .526   13.4   7.3   3.3   3.9   5.1   .7    .90
3.0   Jalen Green    Hou  .479   13.9   4.1   3.4   1.0   3.3   .7    .53
2.1   Bones Hyland   Den  .559   17.8   3.1   4.3   2.6   1.3   .4   1.31
2.0   Jalen Suggs    Orl  .419   12.6   4.4   3.8   1.5   4.3   .4    .41
1.8   Dalano Banton  Tor  .592   13.3   6.3   2.8   1.8   2.1   .9    .87

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.7   Deni Avdija    Was  .511    8.9   7.7   1.5    .8   1.2  1.4    .48
1.3  Davion Mitchell Sac  .447    9.4   2.3   3.6   1.0   1.1   .3    .27
1.0  J Robinson-Earl OKC  .625   11.2   7.4    .7    .6   2.3   .3    .34
.8    Greg Brown     Por  .387   10.8  13.9   4.6   1.2   2.5  2.5   1.46

[Crow]

Notice the names not in top 15.

Kuminga, Z Williams, Bouknight, Primo, J. Johnson, K. Johnson, Christopher, Garuba, Thomas, K Jones...

I was a lot lower than many on these players.

[Mike G]

Season at 15%, rookies project to total 50 eWins.
East 32 - 18 West

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.7   Evan Mobley   Cle  .572   17.5   8.4   2.3   1.1   2.0  1.5   1.34
6.7  Scottie Barnes Tor  .556   17.3   9.3   2.6   1.0   2.2   .8   1.33
5.1   Josh Giddey   OKC  .443   10.3   7.6   7.0   1.7   3.3   .7   1.04
4.6   Franz Wagner  Orl  .548   14.4   4.3   2.0   1.9   1.3   .6    .84
4.1   Chris Duarte  Ind  .526   15.5   5.1   2.0   1.0   1.9   .1    .75

3.2  Alperen Şengün Hou  .566   15.2   7.2   3.4   2.8   4.2   .9   1.07
2.3   Bones Hyland  Den  .521   15.9   3.8   3.9   1.7   1.5   .4   1.07
1.8   Jalen Green   Hou  .467   12.9   3.8   2.9    .8   3.5   .4    .32
1.8 Davion Mitchell Sac  .465    9.9   3.1   3.9    .8   1.3   .3    .38
1.6  Dalano Banton  Tor  .571   12.3   6.0   2.9   1.3   2.1  1.0    .74

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.5   Deni Avdija   Was  .483    7.3   7.6   2.0    .8   1.1  1.2    .42
1.2   Jalen Suggs   Orl  .412   11.5   4.2   4.0   1.1   4.6   .5    .26
1.2 Jeremiah R-Earl OKC  .528    9.3   8.0    .8    .9   1.8   .5    .38
1.0 Cade Cunningham Det  .404   11.5   7.2   3.4   1.2   5.2   .4    .37

[Mike G]

Season is 21.6% completed, and rookies project to 51 total eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.0   Evan Mobley    Cle  .548   15.7   8.6   2.4   1.1   2.0  1.7   1.25
5.7  Scottie Barnes  Tor  .515   13.6   9.1   3.1   1.0   2.2   .6   1.07
5.2   Josh Giddey    OKC  .449   10.8   8.3   6.3   1.3   3.4   .8   1.03
3.5   Chris Duarte   Ind  .515   14.9   5.2   2.2   1.2   2.0   .1    .76
3.4  Alperen Şengün  Hou  .547   14.0   8.0   3.8   2.4   3.5   .9   1.13

3.4   Franz Wagner   Orl  .514   12.5   4.4   2.0   1.5   1.3   .6    .64
3.4  Cade Cunningham Det  .436   12.2   7.1   5.0   1.6   3.8   .6    .89
2.5   Deni Avdija    Was  .523    9.1   8.2   1.9    .9   1.0  1.3    .67
2.4  J Robinson-Earl OKC  .540   10.7   8.3   1.0   1.2   1.4   .6    .66
1.7  Davion Mitchell Sac  .435    9.0   3.4   4.1   1.1   1.4   .3    .40

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.7   Jalen Suggs    Orl  .423   11.9   4.3   3.9   1.4   4.3   .5    .39
1.7   Jalen Green    Hou  .481   13.3   3.4   2.4    .8   3.3   .3    .30
1.6   Bones Hyland   Den  .495   13.7   4.1   3.0   1.5   1.6   .4    .77
1.2   Dalano Banton  Tor  .567   11.6   5.5   2.9   1.1   2.6   .7    .54
.8   Charles Bassey  Phl  .674   12.9  11.3    .7    .4    .8  2.9   1.17

.7    Ayo Dosunmu    Chi  .518   10.6   4.4   1.5    .7   1.5   .3    .28
.7    Luka Garza     Det  .581   11.1   6.0   2.1   1.7   1.0   .3    .72
.6    Herb Jones     NOP  .522    7.3   4.3   1.9   1.5   1.8  1.0    .17
.5    Tre Mann       OKC  .520   13.5   3.6    .5   1.2   1.4   .8    .44

position breakdown / leaders*:
C - 7.3 - Sengun, Robinson-Earl, Garza, H Jones, Landale (SA)
PF - 13.8 - Mobley, Barnes, Bassey, Garuba (Hou), Sharpe (Brk), Aldama (Mem)
SF - 8.4 - Wagner, Avdija, Banton, G Brown (Por), Kuminga (GS), Kispert (Was)
SG - 11.7 - Giddey, Duarte, J Green, Dosunmu, Christopher (Hou)
PG - 9.0 - Cunningham, Mitchell, Suggs, Hyland, Mann
* - those headed for > 0.25 eWins on the season

[Mike G]

With the season 31% complete, rookies are projecting to a total of 54.4 eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.3   Evan Mobley   Cle  .536   15.3   9.0   2.6   1.1   1.8  2.1  1.29
6.3  Scottie Barnes Tor  .538   14.6   8.4   3.0   1.2   2.1   .9  1.11
4.7   Franz Wagner  Orl  .529   13.9   5.0   2.8   1.5   1.4   .5   .86
4.5   Josh Giddey   OKC  .460   11.0   7.9   6.6   1.2   3.7   .8   .97
4.2 Cade Cunningham Det  .478   14.4   7.5   4.7   1.6   4.4   .7   .97

3.7   Chris Duarte  Ind  .521   15.3   5.0   2.3   1.3   2.1   .1   .79
3.5  Alperen Şengün Hou  .565   14.5   7.9   4.1   2.1   3.2  1.1  1.20
2.2  Jer. Rob.-Earl OKC  .511    9.8   9.1   1.3    .9   1.4   .5   .60
1.9   Deni Avdija   Was  .516    8.8   7.3   1.6    .8    .8  1.1   .52
1.9   Jalen Suggs   Orl  .437   12.4   4.4   4.1   1.6   4.3   .6   .49

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.7 Davion Mitchell Sac  .457    9.6   3.3   3.8   1.0   1.4   .3   .39
1.5   Jalen Green   Hou  .491   14.1   3.6   2.5    .8   3.3   .3   .38
1.4   Bones Hyland  Den  .513   14.3   3.6   2.8   1.6   1.6   .4   .74
1.3   Herb Jones    NOP  .528    8.0   4.5   2.0   1.9   1.6  1.1   .32
.9   Dalano Banton  Tor  .524    9.3   5.8   3.4   1.0   2.6   .5   .40

.8   Ayo Dosunmu    Chi  .575   10.7   3.8   1.9    .8   1.4   .4   .27
.7  Brandon Boston  LAC  .600   17.8   2.8    .8   2.0   2.3   .6   .75
.6  Charles Bassey  Phl  .702   12.9  10.0    .6    .6   1.4  2.7   .99
.5   Luka Garza     Det  .520   10.0   6.9   1.4   1.4   1.1   .2   .54
.5 Josh Christopher Hou  .560   12.4   3.6   2.7   1.9   2.4   .2   .52

[Mike G]

With 44% of the season completed, rookies total ~63 projected eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
5.9   Evan Mobley     Cle  .549   16.4   9.0   2.6   1.0   1.8  1.9   1.31
5.7   Scottie Barnes  Tor  .548   14.8   8.4   3.0   1.1   2.0  1.0   1.09
4.9   Franz Wagner    Orl  .534   15.5   5.1   2.6   1.3   1.7   .6    .89
4.4   Josh Giddey     OKC  .444   10.9   8.3   7.0   1.3   3.5   .7   1.00
3.8  Cade Cunningham  Det  .481   14.2   7.1   5.3   1.7   4.4   .7    .93

3.4   Alperen Şengün  Hou  .565   14.5   8.8   4.1   1.7   3.6  1.6   1.13
3.4   Chris Duarte    Ind  .527   15.2   5.2   2.4   1.3   2.2   .2    .76
2.5   Deni Avdija     Was  .539   10.1   7.6   1.8   1.1   1.3  1.2    .64
2.2  J Robinson-Earl  OKC  .525   11.2   8.8   1.2    .8   1.5   .4    .63
2.1   Omer Yurtseven  Mia  .500   12.5  14.6   1.4   1.3   2.2  1.4   1.29

e82    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.9   Herbert Jones   NOP  .541    9.4   4.9   2.1   1.6   1.5  1.3    .44
1.5  Davion Mitchell  Sac  .477   10.4   3.1   3.9   1.0   1.4   .3    .40
1.4   Bones Hyland    Den  .505   14.9   3.7   2.9   1.3   1.8   .5    .72
1.4   Jalen Green     Hou  .530   15.6   3.5   2.4    .8   3.2   .3    .46
1.2   Jalen Suggs     Orl  .437   12.3   4.4   4.1   1.7   4.3   .6    .44

1.2   Jock Landale    SAS  .720   24.2   7.2   2.5    .7   1.7  1.4   1.74
1.1   Luka Garza      Det  .525   12.9   8.7   1.3   1.1   1.6   .3    .78
.9   Jonathan Kuminga GSW  .548   17.7   5.6   1.0   1.2   2.3   .3    .82
.9    Charles Bassey  Phl  .684   14.9  12.2   1.3    .7   1.7  3.2   1.36
.9    Aaron Wiggins   OKC  .634   13.0   4.8   1.5   1.0   1.5   .3    .51

e82    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
.8    Cam Thomas      Brk  .457   11.1   4.5   2.2    .9   1.1   .4    .44
.8    Ayo Dosunmu     Chi  .591   11.1   3.9   1.9    .8   1.6   .7    .28
.8  Josh Christopher  Hou  .547   11.9   3.8   3.1   1.7   3.2   .2    .37
.7    Tre Mann        OKC  .494   12.8   3.9   1.0   1.0   1.4   .5    .40
.7    Dalano Banton   Tor  .484    9.0   5.9   4.2    .9   2.9   .4    .36

Last time I ran the numbers, 80 players had made their NBA debut. Now it's 115.

[Mike G]

With 60% of the season completed:

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.1   Evan Mobley    Cle  .545   16.3   8.8   2.6    .8   2.1  1.8   1.25
5.3   Franz Wagner   Orl  .545   16.1   5.2   2.9   1.2   1.9   .6    .96
5.1  Scottie Barnes  Tor  .525   13.7   8.2   3.3   1.0   2.0   .9   1.01
4.5   Josh Giddey    OKC  .461   11.4   8.3   6.5   1.1   3.5   .5    .94
4.1  Cade Cunningham Det  .496   14.9   6.1   5.3   1.5   4.2   .8    .92

3.4   Chris Duarte   Ind  .530   14.9   5.4   2.4   1.4   2.1   .2    .82
3.0   Herbert Jones  NOP  .574   10.8   4.8   2.2   1.8   1.3  1.2    .63
2.9  Omer Yurtseven  Mia  .540   13.6  15.0   2.4   1.1   2.1  1.1   1.51
2.5  Alperen Şengün  Hou  .553   13.4   8.2   3.8   1.6   3.6  1.6    .95
2.4   Deni Avdija    Was  .538   10.0   7.0   2.1   1.2   1.3   .9    .62

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.3  Jeremiah R-Earl OKC  .502   10.0   8.6   1.4   1.0   1.3   .5    .63
1.6   Jalen Suggs    Orl  .462   13.2   4.8   4.6   1.7   4.4   .6    .58
1.6 Jonathan Kuminga GSW  .563   18.7   6.6   1.2    .8   2.1   .4   1.02
1.4  Day'Ron Sharpe  Brk  .599   18.1  14.0    .8    .8   2.9  1.5   1.50
1.3   Ayo Dosunmu    Chi  .604   11.0   3.9   2.6    .9   1.6   .6    .37

1.3   Bones Hyland   Den  .498   13.2   4.7   2.8    .9   2.1   .5    .58
1.2   Jalen Green    Hou  .491   13.5   4.1   2.3    .7   3.0   .2    .33
1.1   Aaron Wiggins  OKC  .577   12.0   5.1   1.5   1.3   1.5   .3    .51
1.0   Cam Thomas     Brk  .508   12.7   4.4   1.6    .9   1.5   .2    .45
1.0  Davion Mitchell Sac  .458    9.4   2.9   3.6    .9   1.4   .4    .27
1.0 Josh Christopher Hou  .558   12.0   4.0   2.8   1.7   2.9   .3    .44

Rookies are on pace to total 68 eWins.
5/8 of these will be in the East.

[Mike G]

Season at .815 and rookies project to 76 eWins total.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.2   Evan Mobley     Cle  .538   15.7   9.1   2.4    .9   2.1  1.8   1.21
5.5   Scottie Barnes  Tor  .543   14.5   8.0   2.8   1.2   2.0   .8   1.04
5.1   Franz Wagner    Orl  .550   16.4   5.2   2.8   1.1   1.9   .5    .94
4.2  Cade Cunningham  Det  .491   15.5   6.6   4.9   1.5   4.0   .7    .95
4.1   Josh Giddey     OKC  .475   12.0   8.5   6.2   1.1   3.7   .4    .93

2.9   Chris Duarte    Ind  .530   14.8   5.4   2.2   1.4   2.2   .2    .77
2.9   Herbert Jones   NOP  .573   11.0   4.9   2.2   1.8   1.6  1.0    .59
2.7  Alperen Şengün   Hou  .530   12.8   8.9   3.3   1.6   3.5  1.7    .91
2.6  Jonathan Kuminga GSW  .598   20.4   6.6   1.4    .8   2.2   .6   1.15
2.5  Omer Yurtseven   Mia  .557   15.1  15.2   2.2    .9   2.1  1.0   1.58

e82    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.3   Deni Avdija     Was  .530    9.7   7.5   2.0   1.1   1.4   .8    .59
2.2   Jalen Green     Hou  .522   14.8   3.8   2.4    .9   2.5   .3    .53
1.9   Bones Hyland    Den  .520   14.8   5.1   3.4   1.0   2.2   .5    .78
1.9   Ayo Dosunmu     Chi  .602   11.0   3.9   3.5   1.1   1.8   .5    .45
1.7   Jalen Suggs     Orl  .451   12.4   4.6   4.8   1.8   4.2   .5    .53

1.6   Cam Thomas      Brk  .513   14.3   4.4   1.8   1.0   1.6   .3    .60
1.6  J Robinson-Earl  OKC  .502    9.8   8.6   1.3   1.0   1.3   .6    .60
1.4   Day'Ron Sharpe  Brk  .584   16.7  13.9   1.2    .9   2.6  1.3   1.45
1.3   Tre Mann        OKC  .479   12.5   3.8   1.7   1.3   1.7   .3    .44
1.2   Isaiah Jackson  Ind  .604   19.7  10.6    .7   1.4   2.5  3.7   1.61

e82    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.2  Josh Christopher Hou  .529   11.8   4.5   2.8   1.7   2.7   .3    .47
1.1  Trendon Watford  Por  .587   11.5   8.2   2.3    .7   1.5  1.1    .75
1.1  Davion Mitchell  Sac  .470   10.1   2.9   3.5   1.0   1.6   .4    .29
1.1   Corey Kispert   Was  .555   11.2   4.4   1.4    .6   1.0   .5    .34
1.0   Aaron Wiggins   OKC  .562   11.3   5.3   1.4   1.1   1.4   .4    .44

1.0   Jose Alvarado   NOP  .496   10.2   3.9   4.5   2.5   1.7   .4    .72
1.0   Terry Taylor    Ind  .628   15.5  11.1   2.1    .3    .8   .4   1.29
0.9   Brandon Boston  LAC  .470   12.4   4.6   1.6   1.2   1.4   .5    .53
0.9   Quentin Grimes  NYK  .582   12.5   3.8   1.6   1.3   1.2   .5    .49
0.8   Jock Landale    SAS  .590   14.2   6.7   2.2    .5   2.0  1.0    .74

Any reason this top 5 should not be all-Rookie 1st team?

[Crow]

DARKO projection has Jones 1, Barnes 2, Mobley 7, Cunningham 13, Wagner 17, Giddey 26. These ranks do not have a minutes minimum. Impose one and these names would have higher ranks.

I didn't check the other metrics. While the votes probably fall in line with your ranks, I think it could be argued on Cunningham, Wagner and Giddey. If one wanted to argue.

Yeah performance and projection are different but DARKO allows a quick rookie sort and I wanted to see what it said.

Plausible candidates for final 2 first team spots would include Jones and then Jackson, Reaves, Grimes and Kuminga.

Maybe Jones gets in. Others could be close or really not depending on voter research effort.

How did Reaves score? Not on your list.

[Mike G]

Reaves was next up, just missed. Since it expanded to 30 players, I didn't feel like stretching it further.
I don't believe in arbitrary "minutes minimum". You contribute by playing minutes and being pretty good in those minutes: a*b
Would anyone really take Herb Jones over the rest?

[Mike G]

126 Rookies totaled 83 eWins -- East 45 - 38 West

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
5.9   Scottie Barnes  Tor  .545   15.0   7.9   3.0   1.1   1.9   .8   1.08
5.8   Evan Mobley     Cle  .541   15.7   9.1   2.3    .9   2.1  1.8   1.20
4.8   Franz Wagner    Orl  .552   16.4   5.1   2.8   1.1   1.8   .5    .95
4.1  Cade Cunningham  Det  .500   16.1   6.1   5.0   1.4   4.1   .8    .94
3.0   Alperen Şengün  Hou  .540   13.3   9.0   3.3   1.5   3.4  1.6    .96

2.9   Josh Giddey     OKC  .475   11.7   8.4   5.9   1.0   3.7   .4    .82
2.9   Jalen Green     Hou  .540   16.4   3.8   2.3    .8   2.3   .3    .65
2.9  Jonathan Kuminga GSW  .587   19.7   6.8   1.6    .8   2.1   .6   1.17
2.8   Herbert Jones   NOP  .564   10.7   4.8   2.1   1.9   1.6   .9    .57
2.7   Bones Hyland    Den  .551   16.8   5.0   4.0   1.0   2.2   .5   1.00

eWin   per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.7   Deni Avdija     Was  .529   10.6   7.4   2.3   1.1   1.5   .8    .65
2.3   Chris Duarte    Ind  .532   14.3   5.5   2.1   1.4   2.1   .2    .71
2.1   Omer Yurtseven  Mia  .539   13.8  14.8   2.1    .9   2.0  1.0   1.45
1.7   Ayo Dosunmu     Chi  .591   11.0   3.7   3.4   1.0   1.8   .5    .39
1.7  Davion Mitchell  Sac  .486   11.4   2.8   4.1   1.0   1.9   .4    .39

1.6   Jose Alvarado   NOP  .515   11.4   4.2   5.0   2.7   1.6   .3    .93
1.6   Isaiah Jackson  Ind  .594   17.8   9.9    .5   1.7   2.6  3.3   1.43
1.6   Terry Taylor    Ind  .648   15.5   8.6   1.6    .7   1.1   .4   1.08
1.6  Trendon Watford  Por  .580   13.0   7.9   2.5   1.0   1.7  1.1    .88
1.5   Cam Thomas      Brk  .513   14.2   4.6   1.8   1.0   1.6   .2    .61

eWin   per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.5   Tre Mann        OKC  .497   13.6   4.1   1.9   1.2   1.8   .3    .52
1.5   Corey Kispert   Was  .582   11.9   4.1   1.3    .7   1.0   .4    .39
1.4  Jeremiah R-Earl  OKC  .521   10.6   8.4   1.3    .9   1.3   .5    .63
1.4  Josh Christopher Hou  .527   12.1   4.7   3.0   1.8   2.9   .3    .50
1.3   Jalen Suggs     Orl  .448   12.0   4.5   4.7   1.8   4.0   .5    .47

1.2   Day'Ron Sharpe  Brk  .584   16.6  13.8   1.2    .9   2.6  1.3   1.45
1.1   Austin Reaves   LAL  .589   10.4   4.6   2.1    .7   1.0   .5    .37
1.0   Trey Murphy     NOP  .552   11.7   5.9   1.2    .8    .6   .3    .58
1.0  Ziaire Williams  Mem  .555   12.5   3.4   1.4    .8   1.1   .3    .35
1.0   Jock Landale    SAS  .590   14.3   7.3   1.9    .6   1.7   .8    .80

[Crow]

Giddey with the worst efficiency in group except for Suggs. Neither was much of a surprise to me.

Best sophomore? Probably more than a 2 man race.