Why did the Griz have a below average playoff offense on average? Horrible offense without Morant. Offensive efficiency was pretty strong in regular season but lost more than 10pts in playoffs. I'll need to check players and lineups.
Griz may not miss Melton and Anderson that much but it depends who steps in those guys minutes. Lots and lots of options. Probably too many to give a coach without mistakes but lots of time to work on it, at coaching level and beyond.
6 guys I'd want in playoffs rotation (5 plus Jackson eventually), then pretty wide open.
Memphis Grizzlies
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
"Morant was only lightly recruited by NCAA Division I programs and unranked by recruiting services, despite having been named All-Region Most Valuable Player three times and earning All-State honors at Crestwood High School in Sumter, South Carolina."
Recruiting services... miss a lot.
Morant from Dalzell SC. Town reputedly nicknamed Razzle Dazzle. Trivia for the day.
Ray Allen played high school ball at Dalzell High. Morant... by whatever timing and reason ended up in the nearby "big city". Too much dazzle to stay in Dalzell.
Recruiting services... miss a lot.
Morant from Dalzell SC. Town reputedly nicknamed Razzle Dazzle. Trivia for the day.
Ray Allen played high school ball at Dalzell High. Morant... by whatever timing and reason ended up in the nearby "big city". Too much dazzle to stay in Dalzell.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
Had some issues with a few Griz in past. Those concerns may continue to some degree but perhaps diminished in tone. Overall I like a lot about them. The contender I like best.
Advancement will depend on improvement to efg%, ft rate, ft%, ts%. Probably has to come a lot from forwards / center or anywhere on bench. Minutes division and lineup management are crucial to get really right for contention, not just sorta.
Advancement will depend on improvement to efg%, ft rate, ft%, ts%. Probably has to come a lot from forwards / center or anywhere on bench. Minutes division and lineup management are crucial to get really right for contention, not just sorta.
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DarkStar48
- Posts: 116
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Re: Memphis Grizzlies
Melton is *very* underrated by the consensus.
Between his passing, good shooting, great overall offense and even greater off-ball defense, his loss by the Grizzlies could have been very significant.
However, they rather shrewdly replaced him in the 2022 draft without sacrificing any assets with projected top prospect UTK guard Kennedy Chandler (who surprisingly fell to the 2nd Rd.) Both players are essentially younger versions of Jrue Holiday.
Between his passing, good shooting, great overall offense and even greater off-ball defense, his loss by the Grizzlies could have been very significant.
However, they rather shrewdly replaced him in the 2022 draft without sacrificing any assets with projected top prospect UTK guard Kennedy Chandler (who surprisingly fell to the 2nd Rd.) Both players are essentially younger versions of Jrue Holiday.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
"Consensus" probably isn't based much on RAPM. Melton and Green have both done well there.
Maybe different views on next RAPM values. Appears very different ideas on adjustments needed to team age profile.
Maybe different views on next RAPM values. Appears very different ideas on adjustments needed to team age profile.
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DarkStar48
- Posts: 116
- Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:24 am
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
Yeah, in the 2022 regular season, Melton in box score stats was 65th in BBallRef BPM in addition to 115th in BackPicks BPM, (prior-informed) 52nd in 538 RAPTOR and 77th in BBallIndex LEBRON, as well as 86th in non-prior-informed RAPM.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
Griz had pretty good bigger minute 5 man lineup results. 12 positive, 8 negative among 20 most used. It was 6 of 7 most used positive then a fade to 6 positive, 7 negative for next 13. Altogether 7 of the 8 negatives were bad to horrendous.
No rs lineup was tried a full 2.5 minutes per game. That is very low. 7 used over 1 minute might be above average.
8 of the 20 most used were +8pts / 100p or better. Morant was in 3. Adams 7, Bane 6, Melton 4, Jackson 5, Brooks 4.
Rest of lineups on average slightly better than the 20 most used. So unlike many places, dink lineups on average were not a problem here.
95% of 20 most used pairs were positive. 10 were nearly +8pts / 100p or better. Morant in none of them. Bane 5, Adams 4, Jackson 3, among others. Morant is in 1 of 10 best trios in 20 most used. 3 of the 9 best qualifying quads.
In playoffs, 2 most used lineups were completely amazing... and played 4 minutes and 3.5 minutes per game. WHY? 4 of the next 5 sucked, so I can't understand the very low use of the first 2. Adams with 3 starters and Jones was the very best of 7 more used over 1 minute per game. But they sat Adams a lot.
I'd like to know how Morant behaves / performs when ahead and behind. Somebody with a play by play database and some coding skill could perhaps look at that. Until then, what I see is that Morant shot 38% from 3 in wins and 27% in losses. 27 point swing in Oliver version of net player ratings between the two outcome groups.
The summary so far would be: used best big minute lineups way more, fix or cull the mid-sized negative lineups and try to maintain the winning ways of best non-Morant lineups with returnees and / or new guys. By a crude measure Griz was estimated to have the 2nd most effective bench last season to Warriors by net rating. Only median and modest positive for starters.
No rs lineup was tried a full 2.5 minutes per game. That is very low. 7 used over 1 minute might be above average.
8 of the 20 most used were +8pts / 100p or better. Morant was in 3. Adams 7, Bane 6, Melton 4, Jackson 5, Brooks 4.
Rest of lineups on average slightly better than the 20 most used. So unlike many places, dink lineups on average were not a problem here.
95% of 20 most used pairs were positive. 10 were nearly +8pts / 100p or better. Morant in none of them. Bane 5, Adams 4, Jackson 3, among others. Morant is in 1 of 10 best trios in 20 most used. 3 of the 9 best qualifying quads.
In playoffs, 2 most used lineups were completely amazing... and played 4 minutes and 3.5 minutes per game. WHY? 4 of the next 5 sucked, so I can't understand the very low use of the first 2. Adams with 3 starters and Jones was the very best of 7 more used over 1 minute per game. But they sat Adams a lot.
I'd like to know how Morant behaves / performs when ahead and behind. Somebody with a play by play database and some coding skill could perhaps look at that. Until then, what I see is that Morant shot 38% from 3 in wins and 27% in losses. 27 point swing in Oliver version of net player ratings between the two outcome groups.
The summary so far would be: used best big minute lineups way more, fix or cull the mid-sized negative lineups and try to maintain the winning ways of best non-Morant lineups with returnees and / or new guys. By a crude measure Griz was estimated to have the 2nd most effective bench last season to Warriors by net rating. Only median and modest positive for starters.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
Fwiw, Warriors estimated as having 6th best starters, best bench. Celtics, best starters, just median bench. Both teams changed. How much did Warriors slip? How much will Celtics improve?
Bucks estimated with 3rd best starters but 2nd worst bench. Heat 9th best starters, 5th best bench.
Clippers, 3rd best bench. Horrible starters, awaiting healthy next season.
Sixers, 4th best starters. Horrible bench, awaiting contributions from the Harden Charitable Trust acquisitions.
Suns, 2nd best starters, 10th best bench.
Nuggets 5th best starters, even while depleted. 21st best bench. Both probably improve.
Bucks estimated with 3rd best starters but 2nd worst bench. Heat 9th best starters, 5th best bench.
Clippers, 3rd best bench. Horrible starters, awaiting healthy next season.
Sixers, 4th best starters. Horrible bench, awaiting contributions from the Harden Charitable Trust acquisitions.
Suns, 2nd best starters, 10th best bench.
Nuggets 5th best starters, even while depleted. 21st best bench. Both probably improve.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
All 9 of Griz's best quads among 20 most used had Adams or Jackson. 6 had both. 6 had Bane. 4 had all 3. Morant in 3.
7 of 8 best trios had at least 2 of Bane Jackson Adams, including the trio with all 3. Morant in none.
Seems like a lot of work / adjustment is necessary to produce more impactful Morant lineups and sub-lineups. Patience perhaps. Changes... I would.
7 of 8 best trios had at least 2 of Bane Jackson Adams, including the trio with all 3. Morant in none.
Seems like a lot of work / adjustment is necessary to produce more impactful Morant lineups and sub-lineups. Patience perhaps. Changes... I would.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
5 of 9 best 5 man's in 20 most used are gone with Anderson and Melton.
Best remaining Morant lineups are Morant Bane Brooks Jackson Adams (little over 100 minutes at +25pts / 100p) and same with Konchar instead of Brooks (+50 with short of 40 minutes test). If Jackson comes back, greatly increase these tests. Til he does, find his best replacements thru vigorous testing, above anything else. With Clarke instead of Jackson got NO MINUTES OF TEST LAST SEASON. How much this season? Should be hundreds of minutes. With Tillie, Tillman, Williams and Aldama instead of Jackson? ALL ZERO MINUTES OF TEST.
Best remaining Morant lineups are Morant Bane Brooks Jackson Adams (little over 100 minutes at +25pts / 100p) and same with Konchar instead of Brooks (+50 with short of 40 minutes test). If Jackson comes back, greatly increase these tests. Til he does, find his best replacements thru vigorous testing, above anything else. With Clarke instead of Jackson got NO MINUTES OF TEST LAST SEASON. How much this season? Should be hundreds of minutes. With Tillie, Tillman, Williams and Aldama instead of Jackson? ALL ZERO MINUTES OF TEST.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
Bane alone twice as good team results as Morant alone. Together not much more than half as good as Morant alone. (Unadjusted for opponent quality.)
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 30,1630217
Bane without Morant or Jackson is best of all combos followed by Jackson alone.
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 17,1628991
Bane Melton without Jackson was worst combo. Worse than with none of them. How much does that play this season and with what results? I assume it will play a lot.
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 30,1630217
Bane without Morant or Jackson is best of all combos followed by Jackson alone.
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 17,1628991
Bane Melton without Jackson was worst combo. Worse than with none of them. How much does that play this season and with what results? I assume it will play a lot.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
With the departure of Anderson and Melton, the worst remaining Morant player pairs were with Z Williams and Bane. No other main rotation pairs were close. Still positives but below team average.
Want better team results with Morant? One possibility would be greatly reducing or eliminating time in poor performing lineups with Z Williams.
Want better team results with Morant? One possibility would be greatly reducing or eliminating time in poor performing lineups with Z Williams.
Re: Memphis Grizzlies
Melton had a far lower ts% with Morant on court than without. Might have been a reason for his trade. (That kind of trouble was more of an exception.)