Oftentimes the narrative boils down to one player from each conference. In the East, I don't see anyone coming very close to Giannis. Embiid could, if he stays healthy and the Sixers ever get it together. Durant could, similarly.
The Mavs and Nuggs are both projecting to about 54% wins, so the current disparity could be momentary. Luka's numbers are very competitive with the Joker.
I saw someone interviewing Jalen Rose (and maybe Kendrick Perkins?), from two years ago, asking why Jokic is never mentioned as a leading MVP candidate. He had un-ignorable stats!
The fumbling replies were like, "He doesn't look like an MVP", or "People expect a more athletic MVP". Tail wagging the dog stuff.
Here's an updated projection of wins due to PER, WS/48 and BPM -- just the average of the 3, multiplied by 82/(team games).
Code: Select all
xyzW in 82 G Tm Min WS perW bpmW
16.0 Dončić DAL 960 14.1 15.8 18.2
15.3 Jokić DEN 780 15.0 14.3 16.7
14.6 Davis LAL 818 15.1 14.8 14.0
13.9 Durant BRK 1028 13.0 13.9 14.7
13.1 Curry GSW 894 12.2 11.9 15.2
12.9 Shai OKC 925 12.0 13.3 13.2
12.2 Mitchell CLE 917 11.7 11.0 13.8
12.2 Sabonis SAC 888 13.3 10.5 12.7
12.0 Tatum BOS 1036 11.2 12.4 12.5
xyzW in 82 G Tm Min WS perW bpmW
11.2 Embiid PHI 675 10.4 11.5 11.6
11.0 Haliburton IND 904 10.6 10.1 12.4
10.9 Giannis MIL 786 9.2 11.5 12.0
10.2 DeRozan CHI 955 10.5 10.7 9.3
9.5 Booker PHO 955 9.1 9.7 9.6
9.3 Morant MEM 753 7.9 9.4 10.5
8.9 Markkanen UTA 954 9.1 8.8 8.8
8.9 Butler MIA 669 9.2 8.1 9.3
Most of these guys have cooled off since I last ran this; exceptions being Jokic, Davis (!), Embiid, Butler.
Those guys under 700 minutes could get into contention if they can stay on the floor.
Luka has missed 2 games, Joker 3, Giannis 4; projections assume continuation of minutes to date.