Only 5 teams are positive against the Sagarin top 10 and only 3 by +2 more wins than losses. Nuggets at 7-1 are best, followed by Celtics and then, well behind, the Griz. Cavs are only +1.
Lots of possible finals matchups, but Celtics - Nuggets might be most likely.
'22-23 Commentary
Re: '22-23 Commentary
I'd be willing to trade Anunoby at a good price given his decline as shooter and on BPM overall and short contract. But probably not if they trade Siakam.
Or I'd also be ok to actively explore trade of any other Raptor.
Minutes weighted average of team is just under 26 but fewest wins of any team that age or older. Only teams with less wins are tankers (intentional and / or because of injury).
Raptors are 10 games below .500 since the title.
Starters are 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th and 11th on team on BPM. Anunoby is 11th. The best possible would be an average of 3. The Raptors starting lineup averages 6.6.
Just 1 lineup used over 1.75 minutes per game and it is an almost -2pts / 100p loser.
Pair data is not that bad but not a lot of strength in 10 most used either. No biggest minute trios rise above good. The 4 best modest minute trios all have 2 of Koloko, Anunoby and Barnes. 3 have Koloko and Barnes, 2 Anunoby, 1 Siakam, 1 VanVleet. There are no quads better than good much over 3 minutes per game. Of the 5 strong quads getting 2 minutes and change, Anunoby is in 4, Barnes 4, Siakam 3, Koloko 3, Trent 3, VanVleet 1. It is pretty obvious to me that the best pairs, trios and quads should be tried far far more and the failure to do so is a massive indictment of coach and front office.
VanVleet 10 most used lineups: 1 strong, 3 mild to modest positive, 3 mild negative, 3 big negatives. 10 most used pairs: 3 mild to modest positives, 7 mild to modest negatives. Not much leadership in that data.
I'd trade at least one big name, probably VanVleet. Then Siakam or Anunoby. Trent, I never liked that much, so he could go too if they had a decent offer.
Things could still turn around for them this season but they are looking pretty bad so far and going forward without significant change in lineup management, shooting, shot defense, fouling and other elements of coaching and organizational leadership.
The DARKO trendline for Scottie Barnes has been negative all this season and is barely positive on last measurement. It was flat in 2nd half of season. I have heard whispers about his effort / work ethic. The conventional wisdom is that he is untouchable. I do not share that view.
Or I'd also be ok to actively explore trade of any other Raptor.
Minutes weighted average of team is just under 26 but fewest wins of any team that age or older. Only teams with less wins are tankers (intentional and / or because of injury).
Raptors are 10 games below .500 since the title.
Starters are 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th and 11th on team on BPM. Anunoby is 11th. The best possible would be an average of 3. The Raptors starting lineup averages 6.6.
Just 1 lineup used over 1.75 minutes per game and it is an almost -2pts / 100p loser.
Pair data is not that bad but not a lot of strength in 10 most used either. No biggest minute trios rise above good. The 4 best modest minute trios all have 2 of Koloko, Anunoby and Barnes. 3 have Koloko and Barnes, 2 Anunoby, 1 Siakam, 1 VanVleet. There are no quads better than good much over 3 minutes per game. Of the 5 strong quads getting 2 minutes and change, Anunoby is in 4, Barnes 4, Siakam 3, Koloko 3, Trent 3, VanVleet 1. It is pretty obvious to me that the best pairs, trios and quads should be tried far far more and the failure to do so is a massive indictment of coach and front office.
VanVleet 10 most used lineups: 1 strong, 3 mild to modest positive, 3 mild negative, 3 big negatives. 10 most used pairs: 3 mild to modest positives, 7 mild to modest negatives. Not much leadership in that data.
I'd trade at least one big name, probably VanVleet. Then Siakam or Anunoby. Trent, I never liked that much, so he could go too if they had a decent offer.
Things could still turn around for them this season but they are looking pretty bad so far and going forward without significant change in lineup management, shooting, shot defense, fouling and other elements of coaching and organizational leadership.
The DARKO trendline for Scottie Barnes has been negative all this season and is barely positive on last measurement. It was flat in 2nd half of season. I have heard whispers about his effort / work ethic. The conventional wisdom is that he is untouchable. I do not share that view.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Raptors lead by Nurse, -4 on actual wins - "expected".
Re: '22-23 Commentary
For this season and his career, Doncic is best in Nov. / Dec. then fades sometime in new year. His best net rtg (offensive - defensive rtg) this season was 20 points better than January.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Last season there were 2 teams above +6 SRS, 6 more over +4 and 5 more over +2. This season there are no teams above +6 SRS (though 2 are above 5), just 2 over +4 and 5 more over +2.
More parity? More rest and / or injuries on top teams? Less effort? Seasonal difference that will diminish as season ends?
I consider +6 the minimum to call a "great" team.
Number of teams over +2 (my standard for a "good team) is almost cut in half. That's huge. Might mean lesser competition in first round.
More parity? More rest and / or injuries on top teams? Less effort? Seasonal difference that will diminish as season ends?
I consider +6 the minimum to call a "great" team.
Number of teams over +2 (my standard for a "good team) is almost cut in half. That's huge. Might mean lesser competition in first round.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Reviewing Nick Harrison's major transactions prior to the Irving trade, I'd call 4 ok or better, 10 less than ok.
Of course they are not all of same importance, but that's a considerable lean.
Irving trade is pivotal.
Of course they are not all of same importance, but that's a considerable lean.
Irving trade is pivotal.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Cam Thomas career to date perspective:
63 games with 9 or less points
25 with 10-19 pts
15 with 20 plus (4 of those with 30 plus).
Less than 20% of games with more than 15 pts.
What the future holds? To be determined.
DARKO projection currently stated as better than -1 but chart shows him near -2.
63 games with 9 or less points
25 with 10-19 pts
15 with 20 plus (4 of those with 30 plus).
Less than 20% of games with more than 15 pts.
What the future holds? To be determined.
DARKO projection currently stated as better than -1 but chart shows him near -2.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Grant Williams reportedly wants $18-20 million / year?
I am probably not offering over $8-10 mil / yr. And only for a modest number of teams.
I am probably not offering over $8-10 mil / yr. And only for a modest number of teams.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Alone the minutes qualified at BRef, the lowest 5 BPM estimates in descending order are:
5th lowest PJ Tucker
4 Sochan
3 Jabari Smith
2 Dillon Brooks
Lowest S Sharpe
I was lower on Smith than most. Lower on Sochan and Sharpe than almost everybody (or maybe everybody).
+2 or better on BPM and minutes qualified makes a player top 47.
5th lowest PJ Tucker
4 Sochan
3 Jabari Smith
2 Dillon Brooks
Lowest S Sharpe
I was lower on Smith than most. Lower on Sochan and Sharpe than almost everybody (or maybe everybody).
+2 or better on BPM and minutes qualified makes a player top 47.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Bucks 10-0 in last 10 games.
Spurs 0-10. Pop, either that is a tank or team & coaching sucks or both.
Pacers fall to 2-15 recently. Tank, suck or both.
I vote both on both.
Spurs recently past Pacers and Thunder to take last place on home attendance, (presumably despite the Alamodome game).
Spurs 0-10. Pop, either that is a tank or team & coaching sucks or both.
Pacers fall to 2-15 recently. Tank, suck or both.
I vote both on both.
Spurs recently past Pacers and Thunder to take last place on home attendance, (presumably despite the Alamodome game).
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Holiday without Connaughton, team results are 65% better than together. 8 times better than Connaughton - no Holiday. Holiday without Connaughton has more minutes than the other two separately but combined the lesser combos have more minutes. Something to watch in playoffs.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Bucks & Nuggets with 4 guys with 3 plus assists per game. Celtics 5, Griz 3. Product of shooting and probably passing skill.
(Thunder 2.)
Nuggets and Griz, 11 guys with 500 plus minutes. Bucks 10, Celtics 8.
(Thunder 12.)
(Thunder 2.)
Nuggets and Griz, 11 guys with 500 plus minutes. Bucks 10, Celtics 8.
(Thunder 12.)
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Getting D Graham gives Spurs option to not match / retain T Jones or fallback if Jones selects to leave. Might also suggest lack of confidence in Branham or Wesley at point.
How much roster turnover by start of next season or a year from now? Could be a lot. Not much basis for high continuity with this disaster season... other than more tank.
Trade K Johnson in next 5-16 months? Probably wait beyond summer. Reason for and against. But I'd think carefully about it.
How much roster turnover by start of next season or a year from now? Could be a lot. Not much basis for high continuity with this disaster season... other than more tank.
Trade K Johnson in next 5-16 months? Probably wait beyond summer. Reason for and against. But I'd think carefully about it.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Worst record in 2023-24 is very likely going to be Pistons or Spurs. Could be Rockets or Pacers. Unlikely to be anyone else, without a star injury or rebuild trade (especially with regard to Lillard or Beal).
Re: '22-23 Commentary
There is the team side and player side on many issues. Both get reported. Often you are told which it is or can guess but do not always know which is being reported. The initiating reporter knows but is chosing not to tell the reader (or aggregators).
I am seeing some likely player sides of issue not labeled as such.
I am seeing some likely player sides of issue not labeled as such.