Crow questions & answers
Crow questions & answers
I answer my own questions lifted out of another thread.
Re: Ask Crow AMA?
Let me go thru the list and see what comes to mind. Other replies still welcome.
Do you think looking at player synergies of similar players in the past can yield "interesting to at least consider" information about future player synergies, more than that, or less to no value?
I think it is worth doing. In general terms and what specific lineups and stat concerns. I'd pull up crumpledjumper's create a lineup predictive tool for this, among other things.
Do you think pre-NBA data (of any / all kinds) can be reasonably useful in predicting second NBA contract salary levels (for what that is worth in draft decisions in current cap situations)?
I dunno but I'd think teams should give it 20-50 plus hours of study.
Should play calls (and reads within them) by heavily influenced by player assist data or is a good play design / read "enough" if the assist opportunities are pretty obvious / clear / not that hard?
Yes the assist data should a major item of review. No I don't think every player can make the right read / execution. So play calls need to carefully fit the personnel on the court.
Do you think defenses are giving up higher at the rim fg% mainly because of choice to clamp on 3s or declining interior effort, both or other?
Probably both. Tape study or talk to full-time video analysts.
What is generally the most valuable second skill of strong offensive rebounders?
Probably defense but 3 & offensive rebounding is a nice bit of versatility. Lack of a 3 ball hurts.
Do you think there is more or less uncertainty within teams about the value / cost of player personal fouls than in public (with metrics or in general)? Is there significant difference in handling this question for perimeter and interior players? Don't know what the insiders think. But yes, need an answer for perimeters and interiors and the answer may not be the same.
Do lower ranked play-in game teams tend to be high, middle, low variance in overall play quality?
It might be higher than bettee and worse teams but I haven't checked yet.
Is it common for teams to profile player agent / agency behavior as a significant part of prep for negotiations or is the negotiation largely seen as with the player and their direct personal priorities / style / past contract behavior (to extent known)?
I'd assume it gets some consideration, especially for agents with a long track record.
If there is near-term league expansion, with possible expansion selections off current teams, how massively does it change roster management and how many months or years in advance would front offices "like" to know of its implementation?
Someone suggested expansion is unlikely before 2025. That is probably true. I'd assume at least 6 months lead time. 12-18 would make sense. Could check the past.
Would you support current 19 year minimum draft eligibility standard, 18, or lower? Stay 2 rounds or go to 3? More 2 way contracts or the same?
18 is probably the right step, though 17 might be considered. A 3rd round might make sense or pissibly say you have to draft an 18 year old instead of lots of free agent signings, many of which would be pre-mature / "wrong".
Anything you are willing to say about select "luck adjustment" of metrics or any stat or "the padding method"?
Do teams generally have current analytic staff acquisition big boards / seek out contract end dates / talk to agents or lawyers or the analytic staff themselves? Do contracts with analytic staff generally preclude discussing future employment opportunities with outside parties while under their current contract? If an analytic staffer wanted to resign before contract end date are they generally precluded from entering a new contract until the original end date? Has any team, to your known, ever asked for or gotten any compensation for releasing an analytic staffer to another team? How big a bump in title or pay is enough to allow a staffer to take it as permitted "career advancement? Is there a years of service to current team rule of thumb? You probably can't / won't say, but within the team ecosystem of influence / "value", do you think analytic staff (or other middle level staff including assistant coaches) can be "worth" into 7 figures annually?
I'll simply say on the last question that yes analyst staff could be worth millions if good and listened to; and if they are not, I'd be looking for others to add or replace current and looking to eliminate barriers to getting million or multi-million $ returns on work.
Is there a team job description that is currently rare or non-existent today that you think will be much more common in 3-5 plus years?
Mostly or completely free-agent ANALYST.
IF roster size was open for discussion in the CBA (and expansion talks), what size do you think makes the most basketball sense outright or that you would lobby your owner and the league to support? I'd want to go back to minimum of 13 or 12. I happen to personally want a major expansion (4-6 teams) but doubt anyone else does.
Who do you consider the best strong and weak side offenses and defenses? Is there any appreciable difference in side utilization between regular season and playoffs and team preferences for & against?
Dunno. Would appreciate comment from anyone with info / opinion.
What topics would you most be interested in reading about in a future Sloan research paper (or any other venue)?
Demographics on analyst staff.
RAPM and other metric prediction of title winners.
Shot distribution trends of conference finalists.
Quality of rebounding podition at time of shot by offensive play / scheme, by team, by player.
Probably others will come to me later.
How many off the court NBA spies do teams consult with and is the currency money or mostly just quid pro quo access to information / status? Would it be fair to say some "spies" are in the media? I'd think the answer is probably dozens. Would call then something other than soy but that is a major function.
Do you have much use for player pair data (raw or adjusted)?
Yes. Better than not and sub-lineup with better sample sizes.
What is the biggest question or issue to you never raised / addressed on all the Sloan panels you've been on or the Conference in general?
There could be several. One would be performance data related to former NBA player vs. not at GM, head coach levels.
Yes or no, is it a common element of defensive strategy to do things where potential next own possession advantages exceed current defensive possession "cost"? I'd think it would be worth cost / benefit analysis.
Bigger implementation hurdle for analytic input influence- communication of or reception / understanding? When people say the former is that honest or b.s.?
As an outsider. looking at what particularly coaches do, I'd guess reception is at least as big an issue as communication of advice.
Do you think looking at player synergies of similar players in the past can yield "interesting to at least consider" information about future player synergies, more than that, or less to no value?
I think it is worth doing. In general terms and what specific lineups and stat concerns. I'd pull up crumpledjumper's create a lineup predictive tool for this, among other things.
Do you think pre-NBA data (of any / all kinds) can be reasonably useful in predicting second NBA contract salary levels (for what that is worth in draft decisions in current cap situations)?
I dunno but I'd think teams should give it 20-50 plus hours of study.
Should play calls (and reads within them) by heavily influenced by player assist data or is a good play design / read "enough" if the assist opportunities are pretty obvious / clear / not that hard?
Yes the assist data should a major item of review. No I don't think every player can make the right read / execution. So play calls need to carefully fit the personnel on the court.
Do you think defenses are giving up higher at the rim fg% mainly because of choice to clamp on 3s or declining interior effort, both or other?
Probably both. Tape study or talk to full-time video analysts.
What is generally the most valuable second skill of strong offensive rebounders?
Probably defense but 3 & offensive rebounding is a nice bit of versatility. Lack of a 3 ball hurts.
Do you think there is more or less uncertainty within teams about the value / cost of player personal fouls than in public (with metrics or in general)? Is there significant difference in handling this question for perimeter and interior players? Don't know what the insiders think. But yes, need an answer for perimeters and interiors and the answer may not be the same.
Do lower ranked play-in game teams tend to be high, middle, low variance in overall play quality?
It might be higher than bettee and worse teams but I haven't checked yet.
Is it common for teams to profile player agent / agency behavior as a significant part of prep for negotiations or is the negotiation largely seen as with the player and their direct personal priorities / style / past contract behavior (to extent known)?
I'd assume it gets some consideration, especially for agents with a long track record.
If there is near-term league expansion, with possible expansion selections off current teams, how massively does it change roster management and how many months or years in advance would front offices "like" to know of its implementation?
Someone suggested expansion is unlikely before 2025. That is probably true. I'd assume at least 6 months lead time. 12-18 would make sense. Could check the past.
Would you support current 19 year minimum draft eligibility standard, 18, or lower? Stay 2 rounds or go to 3? More 2 way contracts or the same?
18 is probably the right step, though 17 might be considered. A 3rd round might make sense or pissibly say you have to draft an 18 year old instead of lots of free agent signings, many of which would be pre-mature / "wrong".
Anything you are willing to say about select "luck adjustment" of metrics or any stat or "the padding method"?
Do teams generally have current analytic staff acquisition big boards / seek out contract end dates / talk to agents or lawyers or the analytic staff themselves? Do contracts with analytic staff generally preclude discussing future employment opportunities with outside parties while under their current contract? If an analytic staffer wanted to resign before contract end date are they generally precluded from entering a new contract until the original end date? Has any team, to your known, ever asked for or gotten any compensation for releasing an analytic staffer to another team? How big a bump in title or pay is enough to allow a staffer to take it as permitted "career advancement? Is there a years of service to current team rule of thumb? You probably can't / won't say, but within the team ecosystem of influence / "value", do you think analytic staff (or other middle level staff including assistant coaches) can be "worth" into 7 figures annually?
I'll simply say on the last question that yes analyst staff could be worth millions if good and listened to; and if they are not, I'd be looking for others to add or replace current and looking to eliminate barriers to getting million or multi-million $ returns on work.
Is there a team job description that is currently rare or non-existent today that you think will be much more common in 3-5 plus years?
Mostly or completely free-agent ANALYST.
IF roster size was open for discussion in the CBA (and expansion talks), what size do you think makes the most basketball sense outright or that you would lobby your owner and the league to support? I'd want to go back to minimum of 13 or 12. I happen to personally want a major expansion (4-6 teams) but doubt anyone else does.
Who do you consider the best strong and weak side offenses and defenses? Is there any appreciable difference in side utilization between regular season and playoffs and team preferences for & against?
Dunno. Would appreciate comment from anyone with info / opinion.
What topics would you most be interested in reading about in a future Sloan research paper (or any other venue)?
Demographics on analyst staff.
RAPM and other metric prediction of title winners.
Shot distribution trends of conference finalists.
Quality of rebounding podition at time of shot by offensive play / scheme, by team, by player.
Probably others will come to me later.
How many off the court NBA spies do teams consult with and is the currency money or mostly just quid pro quo access to information / status? Would it be fair to say some "spies" are in the media? I'd think the answer is probably dozens. Would call then something other than soy but that is a major function.
Do you have much use for player pair data (raw or adjusted)?
Yes. Better than not and sub-lineup with better sample sizes.
What is the biggest question or issue to you never raised / addressed on all the Sloan panels you've been on or the Conference in general?
There could be several. One would be performance data related to former NBA player vs. not at GM, head coach levels.
Yes or no, is it a common element of defensive strategy to do things where potential next own possession advantages exceed current defensive possession "cost"? I'd think it would be worth cost / benefit analysis.
Bigger implementation hurdle for analytic input influence- communication of or reception / understanding? When people say the former is that honest or b.s.?
As an outsider. looking at what particularly coaches do, I'd guess reception is at least as big an issue as communication of advice.