Fixing the Timberwolves lineup rotation

[Crow]

The starters work to the tune of +3 / 100p. Used roughly 10 minutes per game. Either you blow that up... or play it 20 plus minutes per game.

Assuming the latter, I'd mainly play 2 other lineups:

McLaughlin Edwards Nowell Anderson Gobert for 16 minutes and McLaughlin Nowell McDaniels Anderson Towns for 12 minutes.

Reid and Prince selective fill in only as absolutely necessary. I got no time to mess with trying to make others work or taking time from the main guys & lineups. It hasn't worked yet and I doubt it will.

Russell down to 20 minutes and exclusive with starters.

That's it for me for 10 games and re-evaluate. Of course they won't.

[DarkStar48]

PBP Stats has MIN’s starters at +4.23 pts/100poss., which ranks 14th among all lineups that have played at least ~114 game minutes (approx. 240 possessions) — 23 total qualifiers.

If they change the starting lineup (when Towns is available), they should try:
- McLaughlin-Russell-Edwards-Towns-Gobert.

The other lineup rotations could be:
- McLaughlin-Russell-Edwards-Towns-Reid
- Nowell-Prince-Anderson-McDaniels-Reid
- Nowell-Prince-Anderson-McDaniels-Gobert

Moore Jr. could be substituted in spots when needed.

[Crow]

Edwards is very bad with Russell and Towns on average outside the starting lineup.

Nowell as the nominal PG? I have doubts.

[Crow]

Timberwolves are outside the play-in level and have 23rd SRS.

Playing with 243 lineups has not worked.

Wolves at least one of the 7-8 biggest disappointments to date.

[Crow]

Different suggestions. Could try both. We appear to agree on trying new and trying them for big minutes.

McLaughlin - Russell great in short minutes this season. Sure, try some more. Set up 2 pick n rolls, one of each side? Maybe on & off with Edwards in middle lane or going for back door.

[DarkStar48]

Edwards is very bad with Russell and Towns on average outside the starting lineup.

Nowell as the nominal PG? I have doubts.

I included McLaughlin as a stabilizing force in all the Russell-Edwards-Towns lineups. In ~5 game minutes, these 4 players when on the floor together are +18.94 pts/100poss. Without McLaughlin, the other players were -6.29 pts/100poss. in approx. 468 min. of playing time.

Nowell is a great passer and has great handles. Moreover, the Timberwolves used him as a secondary ball-handler over the previous 2 seasons. I think it is reasonable to expect he would be able to adapt to a primary ball-handling role.

(FYI, MIN are also 24th in adjusted net rating.)

[Crow]

Last night Nowell played 4 of his 21 minutes without Russell, McLaughlin or Rivers. He plays with Rivers a far amount and I dunno who to call the PG there.

Despite our calls for more minutes for McLaughlin, he played just 6 minutes and none with Russell.

Zero of our suggested lineups played last night.

[Crow]

McLaughlin is injured.

Progress will rely a lot on Towns and McLaughlin.

Wolves' bench was on the court for most of the losing tonight, including Nowell.

[Crow]

TWolves lose 3 of last 4. Game against Bulls to start shortly.

50 lineups used in those 4 games.

Half of the 20 most used were positive, half negative. Cumulatively the 20 most used were -6. The other 30 dink lineups (each used 3 minutes or less for the period) went -33 cumulatively.

Concentration is usually wise.

In this case the top 20 averaged about -2 / 100p. The 30 dinkier lineups averaged -31 / 100p.

On quick review, I don't think any of our suggested lineups played a second (probably because of injuries).

[Crow]

Russell gone & McLaughlin back, we'll eventually get more test of the McLaughlin lineups suggested above.

[Crow]

The calls by DarkStar48 and I for McLaughlin with starters are supported now by the results. 8 of his 10 most used lineups are outstanding.

Timberwolves shared a similar view in chosing this direction, eventually.

[DarkStar48]

With the recent trade, MIN should substitute Conley for McLaughlin in the suggested starting lineup with Towns, and elevate McDaniels to a starter.

They should then split the bench guard minutes between Conley, McLaughlin and Alexander-Walker.

The starting lineup would become:
- Conley/Edwards/McDaniels/Towns/Gobert.

The other lineup rotations could be:
- Conley/Edwards/McDaniels/Towns/Reid
- McLaughlin/Alexander-Walker/Prince/Anderson/Reid
- McLaughlin/Alexander-Walker/Prince/Anderson/Gobert

Nowell would be the new spot minutes player.

[Crow]

I haven't done a full review of Timberwolves lineup situation.

I did see that my most preferred McLaughlin lineup from months ago has gotten just 1 minute of play. That other lineups are doing well mitigates that disappointment somewhat.

[Crow]

Karl Anthony Towns had a -3.8 BPM estimate for playoffs, heavily because of turnovers but also modestly below average ts%.

Anthony Edwards was +10. It is probably his team now.

Connelly's trade did not work (Gobert at BPM +0.3 for playoffs) and the felt costs will rise. New owners hire of "an elite GM" does not look good.

Top lineups went from 5 of 6 positive in regular season to 3 of 4 over 10 minutes negative. Most used was over 13 min / gm but a mild negative. Nothing else over 3 min / gm. 56 different lineups in 5 games. 34% positive. 36 lineups used for 3 minutes or less. Only 25% of those were positive. McDaniels' absence eliminated a good number of bigger minute positives.

5 of the 10 most used lineups had both KAT and Gobert. 1 strong, 1 mild negative, 3 very bad. KAT - Gobert went from +1 in regular season to -8.5 pts / 100p in playoffs. KAT in all 3 of the worst pairs over 100 minutes.

Only quad in 20 most used over +3 had neither as a named participant. It was +14 but in only 20 minutes of use, Tied for just 11th most used. Conley Edwards NAW Anderson. All the worst bigger minute quads substituted in Towns and / or Prince into this quad. Towns with the full quad was great... in 12 minutes of use. Gobert with the full quad was great... in 7 minutes of use. How could you not use these lineups more? I guess NAW was used differently. The quad was only tested 20 minutes in regular season and was great overall. With Gobert lost by just over 1 basket in 13 minutes. With Towns got zero test. More test and more use may or may not have worked but not tried. Most of ge pair data was favorable. Maybe next season? ... or maybe not if personnel changes or lineup management does not.

[Mike G]

Wolves had a RS SRS of -0.22. With the players they had available in PO, they managed to be slightly better.
Showing PO mpg, RS BPM, PO BPM, and additional points/game due to improvement.

Code: Select all

TWolves  mpg   rBPM    pBPM   Pts+
Edwards   40    1.0    10.4    7.3
Conley    37    2.0     0.6   -1.0
Towns     36    3.0    -3.8   -4.8
Gobert    35    0.7     0.3    -.3
A-Walker  30   -3.0    -1.9     .6
Anderson  21    2.5     3.7     .5
Prince    20   -3.3    -4.0    -.3
Nowell    12   -2.5   -12.2   -2.4
Rivers     9   -2.8    -2.2     .1
McLaughlin 3   -0.7   -18.1   -1.0
Minott     1   -1.6    -1.9     .0
Knight     1   -3.2   -25.8    -.4
Moore     0.4  -2.4   -33.9    -.2

. sum     245   .32   -0.05   -1.8

Edwards might be the RS-to-PO MIP of the postseason! almost certainly of the 1st round.
Towns' dropoff cost them almost 5 ppg in this measure.