Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

SGA - Dort - Jalen Williams are just neutral with or without Giddey. Satisfied with either as "the core"? I am not.

Add Holmgren next season, which will be better? The other player(s) may or may not make a big difference.

[Crow]

Against the Spurs (3rd worst record in league, without 2 starters), only two Thunder starters had positive on court plus minus and 1 was only mildly positive.

The starting lineup together was actually strong today, so many of the smaller, rando lineups with starters in them must have really sucked.

I see a -35/100p, 2 -50s, -100 and -200.

Maybe you can get away with these significant faux pas against a depleted Spurs... but not usually.

[Mike G]

Thunders currently have the 5th best SRS in the West, within 2 ppg of #1 Den.
They're in a 4-way tie for 9th-12th in the standings; projected to finish 9th, but just 1.5 wins short of #5.

Their schedule the rest of the way is about 1/2 ppg easier than to date.
In games decided by 5 pts or less, they're 6-13. If they were just 9-10 in these games, they'd be in that 5th spot.
If 13-6, they'd have HCA!

Still the most overachieving team relative to predictions: +15.6 vs the avg guess. Only the Kings are even half that much over.

[Crow]

I have focused a lot on process details. They are part of the story but not the totality.

The results are indeed better than expected, though how much so is still pending the final leg of the season and what measure(s) are checked.

[Crow]

As before, Thunder have no still possible and positive 5 man lineup over 22 minutes except for a K Williams at Center lineup, which is so unsignificant to Coach D that it hasn't been used much and not at all in 12 games.

85% of the season used and that is where the lineup data stands.

Biggest minute lineup is only negative by less than 1 point but if that is the best you got, you aren't sitting on a lot of gold for playoff use or next season.

[Crow]

16 months til Giddey is extension eligible. 28 months til JDub and Holmgren are. How far will the money stretch? Keep all 5 for $125-150 mil and growing? How much else? How much luxury tax?

[Crow]

Giddey has crept up to 3rd on team on BPM (aided by BPM's heavy rewards for assists). 7th on EPM. But 11th on Darko projection, 9th on Drip. 16th on court +/-, 17th for raw on / off. 11th on RAPM, but 18th on luck adjusted RAPM.

So Giddey looks his best in individual boxscore metrics and much worse on team impact and projections.

[Crow]

Starter's first stint today: -45 pts / 100p. A horrible habit that shows no signs of attention / correction.



Late surge is enough for win, barely.

[Crow]

Will Thunder be in a 8 way battle next season for the 6th-10th seeds? Better? Would anything lower than 6th or 8th at worst be a disappointment? Not going to be easy to advance.

[Crow]

Just 1 of Jalen Williams 10 most used lineups is positive and still possible.

Positive with 2 current starters, negative with 2. All together, mild negative.

[Crow]

Thunder have to go 7-4 to break above ,500 for season. 4 home games, 7 road. Probably not going to happen. Go 4-7 and stay in the thirties for wins.

[Crow]

Thunder starters go about-130pts / 48 min in first stint tonight.

And then team puts in subs and starts playing at average clip of +110 /48 the rest of the quarter.

But same starters next game? Probably.

[Crow]

24th best record against Sagarin top 10 before tonight at 8-18.

[Crow]

All Thunder starters lost their time on court, all bench players won theirs.

Thunder win by 1.

[Mike G]

OKC is #10 in SRS so presumably also w Sagarin.
From last year their Wins improvement is just one short of the Kings' now. SRS improvement is OKC 9.4 - 7.4 Sac.

They're given a 6% chance of going to the Finals and a 2% chance to win it all.
Currently projecting just 0.4 wins short of 5th in the West; just 1.7 from HCA in round 1.