22-23 MVP Tracker

[Mike G]

Best 30 player-seasons of the last 3 years, when this season's minutes and wins are extrapolated to their teams' full 82 games*.
Ranked by the avg of: PER-wins, Win Shares, and BPM-wins. (though the column I copied here weighs WS*2 and BPM*3)

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xyzW   player   yr   perW    WS    bpmW    Min   PER   WS/48  BPM
17.4*  Jokić    23   15.0   16.8   18.5   2491*  32.4  .324  13.0
17.2   Jokić    22   15.2   15.3   19.1   2476   32.8  .296  13.7
16.4   Jokić    21   14.4   15.6   17.6   2488   31.3  .301  12.1
15.4*  Dončić   23   15.1   13.2   16.9   2740*  30.1  .231   9.9
13.9   Giannis  22   13.2   12.9   14.8   2204   32.1  .281  11.2

13.0   Embiid   22   13.2   12.1   13.5   2297   31.2  .252   9.2
12.6*  Tatum    23   12.5   11.8   13.1   2906*  24.8  .195   5.8
12.6* Shai G-A  23   12.5   11.9   13.0   2653*  26.5  .215   6.8
12.7*  Sabonis  23   11.0   13.5   12.8   2681*  23.9  .241   6.5
12.4*  Durant   23   12.3   11.7   12.9   2615*  26.6  .214   6.9

xyzW   player   yr   perW    WS    bpmW    Min   PER   WS/48  BPM
11.8*  Embiid   23   12.3   11.1   12.2   2156*  30.9  .248   8.6
10.9   T Young  22   11.8   10.0   11.3   2652   25.4  .181   5.2
11.3*  Mitchell 23   10.2   10.1   12.3   2576*  23.3  .189   6.5
11.0   Giannis  21   10.7   10.2   11.7   2013   29.2  .244   9.0
10.9* Haliburton 23   9.5    9.7   12.2   2382*  23.3  .196   7.3

10.4   Lillard  21   10.3   10.0   10.8   2398   25.6  .209   6.3
10.3   Towns    22   10.3   10.3   10.3   2476   24.1  .199   5.0
10.5   Tatum    22    9.9    9.6   11.3   2731   21.8  .169   4.9
10.5   Curry    21    9.8    8.8   11.9   2152   26.3  .201   8.7
10.5   Dončić   22   10.1    7.6   12.6   2301   25.1  .159   8.2

xyzW   player   yr   perW    WS    bpmW    Min   PER   WS/48  BPM
10.1* Markkanen 23    9.9   10.4   10.0   2511*  23.1  .199   4.5
9.7   Gobert    22    9.1   11.7    8.5   2120   24.7  .264   4.6
9.8*  Giannis   23   10.3    7.9   10.8   2150*  27.0  .176   7.1
9.9*  Butler    23    8.8   10.0   10.3   1948*  25.6  .246   7.7
9.6   LeBron    22    9.7    7.5   11.0   2084   26.2  .172   7.7

9.5   Durant    22    9.2    8.4   10.4   2047   25.6  .198   7.2
9.4*  LeBron    23   10.1    7.1   10.7   2312*  25.1  .147   6.1
9.1   Zion      21    9.8    8.7    9.1   2026   27.1  .205   5.8
9.2   Dončić    21    9.4    7.2   10.5   2262   25.3  .163   6.8
9.3*  Curry     23    8.3    7.8   10.5   1939*  24.7  .194   8.1

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
So this could be the Joker's best year yet. Luka this year is easily his closest competition in 3 seasons. And the list mostly covers super/stars who are at least half as good.

[Mike G]

With his team losing, Luka is "officially" out of the top 2:

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Prob%  Win%   per G:   eFG%   Pts   Reb   Ast  St+Bk
.688   .702   Jokic   .654   25.1  11.0   9.9   2.0
.083   .652   Embiid  .563   33.6   9.8   4.2   2.7
.073   .521   Doncic  .559   33.6   8.9   8.7   2.1
.053   .745   Tatum   .554   31.2   8.5   4.3   1.9
.029   .578   Sabonis .630   18.8  12.6   7.3   1.2

.024   .630   Giannis .541   31.0  11.9   5.3   1.7
.024   .630   Durant  .607   29.7   6.7   5.3   2.3
.010   .674   Morant  .504   27.2   5.5   7.9   1.3
.008   .489   Shai    .534   30.7   4.8   5.5   2.8
.007   .542   Butler  .537   21.6   6.1   5.0   2.5

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

[Mike G]

Joker is threatening to be the 3rd player ever to average a triple-double for a season. Trends are interesting:

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mo.   G   mpg  TS%   Usg%   ORtg   Pts    Reb   Ast
Oct   7   33  .683   23.2   138   21.0   11.1   8.4
Nov  11   31  .720   28.2   134   23.7    8.9   9.3
Dec  14   36  .667   30.8   130   29.2   12.3  10.1
Jan   9   32  .746   26.1   145   23.7   11.3  11.3

More minutes and Usage (Dec) correspond to lower efficiencies. This month's numbers are off all the charts.
Last year's January was his best monthly ORtg (130), TS% (.700) and Ast/G (9.0) of that MVP run.

Some similarities with Doncic trends, and some differences:

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mo.   G  mpg  TS%   Usg%   ORt  DRt    Pts   Reb   Ast
Oct   6  37  .600   41.3   127  110   36.7   9.5   8.7
Nov  13  38  .608   37.1   119  109   32.0   8.5   8.5
Dec  15  36  .644   38.7   129  112   35.1   8.5   9.3
Jan   9  40  .552   37.9   110  117   31.3   9.8   7.8

Here, too, we see better efficiencies with lower mpg. I added D-Rtg since it does look like a trend.
Now Christian Wood is out, so the Mavs have to hope others really step up.

Joel Embiid is all ups:

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mo.   G  mpg  TS%   Usg%   ORt  DRt    Pts   Reb   Ast
Oct   6  34  .618   34.5   111  115   27.2   9.5   3.3
Nov   8  35  .626   40.4   118  101   34.1   9.8   6.0
Dec  13  36  .644   38.5   122  107   35.4   9.9   4.2
Jan   7  32  .685   39.5   128  112   35.1   9.7   2.7

Same pts and reb in fewer minutes; Sixers 8-2 in Jan.

[Mike G]

Tatum bumped from top 5.

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Prob%  Player    tm   W%   eFG%   Pts   Reb   Ast  St+Bk   TO
.683   Jokic    Den  .70  .661   24.7  11.6  10.2   2.0   3.6
.084   Embiid   Phl  .67  .556   33.0  10.3   4.1   2.8   3.5
.062   Giannis  Mil  .71  .558   31.8  12.2   5.4   1.6   4.0
.053   Luka     Dal  .53  .566   33.2   8.8   8.2   2.0   3.6
.040   Harden   Phl  .67  .555   21.6   6.2  10.7   1.8   3.4

.035   Tatum    Bos  .72  .539   30.6   8.7   4.6   1.9   2.9
.017   Sabonis  Sac  .57  .627   18.8  12.4   6.9   1.3   2.9
.011   Lillard  Por  .48  .570   31.4   4.3   7.3   1.1   3.2
.009   Shai     OKC  .48  .528   31.0   4.7   5.7   2.7   2.9
.006   Butler   Mia  .54  .526   21.7   6.0   5.1   2.4   1.7

Harden is the only player here whose eFG% is better than his 2fg%. Everyone else shoots too many 3's!
Butler the only one with Stl+Blk > TO.

[Mike G]

Joker's assault on statistical normalcy continues.

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mo.   G   mpg  3fg%  TS%   Usg%   ORtg   Pts    Reb   Ast
Oct   7   33  .211  .683   23.2   138   21.0   11.1   8.4
Nov  11   31  .444  .720   28.2   134   23.7    8.9   9.3
Dec  14   36  .350  .667   30.8   130   29.2   12.3  10.1
Jan  12   33  .538  .760   25.8   143   24.0   11.6  11.3
Feb   9   33  .556  .700   25.5   133   21.7   14.2  10.2

Dec. was about scoring, in Jan it was passing, now focused on rebounding.
3-pt attempts in those months have declined from 3 per game, to 2, to 1. Being more selective and realizing it's even better to take it inside.

Jokic had just 3 assists last night, as fellow starters shot 10-36 on FG; and he now avg's 10.02

[Mike G]

Embiid has career highs in Pts/G, Min/G, FG%, 2fg%, eFG%, Pts/100 poss, ORtg, TS%, and Usg%.
Luka with career high mpg, FG%, 3fg%, 2fg%, eFG%, Stl/G, Pts/G, Pts/100, ORtg, PER, TS%, Stl%, Usg%, WS, ws/48, BPM, VORP.
(Yes already and with 18 games to go.)
Giannis merely has career high Pts/G, Pts/100, and Usg%.

Still, none of these guys is seriously challenging the Joker.

[Mike G]

We now have a 2nd challenger in double figures!

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Prob%  player    tm    W%    Min    PER    TS%   WS  ws/48   BPM  VORP
.632   Jokic    Den  .676   2030   31.6   .699  13.2  .311  13.0   7.7
.121   Embiid   Phl  .672   1890   31.1   .648  10.0  .253   8.7   5.1
.078   Giannis  Mil  .721   1722   28.6   .601   7.3  .203   8.1   4.4
.049   Harden   Phl  .672   1839   22.7   .623   7.9  .207   6.1   3.8
.034   Doncic   Dal  .493   2068   29.5   .613   9.3  .216   9.5   6.0

.028   Tatum    Bos  .681   2396   23.6   .602   8.8  .176   5.3   4.4
.025   Sabonis  Sac  .597   2248   23.3   .668  10.2  .218   5.6   4.3
.013   Lillard  Por  .456   1958   27.2   .648   9.2  .225   7.2   4.6
.011   Shai     OKC  .485   2028   27.4   .625   9.7  .229   7.3   4.7
.010   Butler   Mia  .529   1837   27.0   .635  10.1  .263   8.4   4.8

Prob%  player    tm    W%    Min    PER    TS%   WS  ws/48   BPM  VORP
.      Davis    LAL  .485   1441   27.9   .626   6.6  .219   6.5   3.1
.      Durant   tot         1501   26.6   .681   6.3  .203   7.3   3.5
.      Curry    GSW  .522   1491   24.6   .668   6.1  .197   8.0   3.8
.      J Allen  Cle  .614   2048   19.8   .673   8.7  .204   2.3   2.2
.      Brunson  NYK  .571   2166   21.4   .595   8.2  .181   4.0   3.3

.      Looney   GSW  .522   1617   17.7   .653   7.1  .211   2.0   1.6
.    Haliburton Ind  .449   1822   23.8   .623   7.6  .201   7.2   4.2
.     Mitchell  Cle  .614   2099   22.7   .610   7.7  .176   6.2   4.3

Included everyone ranking top 10 in any of these summary stats.

As recently as 2012, there were not even 10 players with TS% > .600.
Last year there were 43. This year 68. Qualifying.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... op_10.html
Just 7 in 2006; 5 in 2004; 2 in 2003; zero from 1974-76 or ever before 1967.

[v-zero]

This four game skid for Denver is very likely to swing the MVP away from Jokic. Fact is voter fatigue means the majority would rather it go to Embiid or even Giannis, but there has to be a semi-reasonable argument for it, and these consecutive losses, two of them to very poor teams, are just that semi-reasonable argument.

[Mike G]

Update on Jokic monthly summaries:

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mo.   G   mpg  3fg%  TS%   Usg%   ORtg   Pts    Reb   Ast
Oct   7   33  .211  .683   23.2   138   21.0   11.1   8.4
Nov  11   31  .444  .720   28.2   134   23.7    8.9   9.3
Dec  14   36  .350  .667   30.8   130   29.2   12.3  10.1
Jan  12   33  .538  .760   25.8   143   24.0   11.6  11.3
Feb  11   33  .500  .698   25.9   136   22.6   14.2  10.2
Mar   6   36+ .444  .685   27.0   131   25.5   13.7   9.3

His mpg and Usg% are back up from his comfort zone; assists are down. Are his teammates just missing more shots?

Even after 4 losses, the Nuggs are +4 on what their record should be due to pt-differential. In games decided by 6 points or less, they have gone 17-6. Their luck has just run out a bit. Maybe they've just run into some hot teams?

[v-zero]

I'm certain it is luck more than anything, but people are always happy to build narratives from luck. People have the instinctual habit to want to explain variance, when in actual fact there really isn't anything to explain. Sometimes the cards don't fall your way.

[Mike G]

ESPN did a 'straw poll' that had, as I recall, near consensus that Jokic IS the MVP again. A week or 2 ago.
Maybe the traditional fatigue has morphed into "don't want to be the last to admit he's the mvp" sentiment among voters.

If Denver or Jokic goes into full collapse, maybe Embiid gets close. But the statistical imbalance is enormous right now. Even the per-minute numbers.

Speaking of ESPN, stealth access to their RPM shows this top 12 in rpmWins:

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WINS   player    tm    RPM
20.8   Tatum     Bos   9.14
16.6   Randle    NYK   5.91
16.5   Doncic    Dal   7.41
16.4   Jokic     Den   7.82
16.1   Embiid    Phl   9.14
15.7   Lillard   Por   7.41
14.9   F Wagner  Orl   5.93
14.8   E Mobley  Cle   5.93
14.4  Markkanen  Uta   5.65
14.3   B Lopez   Mil   5.43
14.2   LeBron    LAL   7.93
14.1   Mitchell  Cle   6.30

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/WINS
I honestly don't know what to make of these. Leery of those identical RPM rates!
Giannis #15, Butler 22, Shai 23, Sabonis 30, Harden 32
Butler RPM = 5.91 = Randle

[v-zero]

RPM is (quite literally) not what it used to be. I would describe it as close to useless.

[Mike G]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/358 ... t-got-good
"Exactly one month ago, ESPN released its second of three straw polls tracking the NBA's Most Valuable Player race for the 2022-23 season, and it had a very clear result: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic as the heavy favorite to claim his third straight award.

"Thursday saw Las Vegas tell a different tale, as Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid has joined Jokic as an MVP co-favorite after finishing in second each of the last two seasons."

[v-zero]

Detroit hung in last night and the game was tied at 86 going into the 4th. Had the Nuggets not crushed them in the 4th, arguably as much to do with cold shooting from Detroit as anything else, then I think Jokic's shot at being MVP would be close to dead and buried. As it stands I believe he is still the front runner, but if Denver don't finish well I still think it is in doubt.

[Mike G]

Yes, it was a 4.75-game losing streak. Last night it was Rodney McGruder having his best night (by far) of the year for Det.
Latest eWins projections show it is neck and neck now, regardless of teams' streaking.
And of course, luck being what it is, any team might go on a good or bad streak still.