Notes on DARKO fair salary estimates:
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 92032?s=20
'22-23 Commentary
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Eason on court tonight, team goes +29 points. Jabari Smith, -18.
K Lofton finally get a few minutes and delivers 2 straight good boxscores.
K Lofton finally get a few minutes and delivers 2 straight good boxscores.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards, 32W-38L. 2-6 recently. -2 Actual vs "Expected". 19th Offensive Rating, 20th Defensive. 11% chance at playoffs by BRef.
Strong most used lineup but only used a bit over 2 minutes per game for season and hasn't started for 3 months. Best by far big minute player pair (Morris - Beal) is only 11th most used because of injury and just not making it a bigger priority.
Below average on all 3 parts of Moreyball and probably one of the lowest overall. Slightly above average efg% and a couple strong defensive marks but 5 other negative factors outweigh.
Do Kuzma and Porzingis stick around? At what price? With what design? The same as now? What improves significantly next season?
Beal with a 3pta rate almost 40% below league average and barely make more than half what it was 3 years ago?? And Coach and team let it happen while giving him the huge extension??
When is next playoff appearance and series win? This will likely be 6 years without series win and I would expect more.
Changes? 3 options are a lot, even more or not enough.
3rd oldest team not playoff ranked and the farthest of the 3 from play-in status.
Strong most used lineup but only used a bit over 2 minutes per game for season and hasn't started for 3 months. Best by far big minute player pair (Morris - Beal) is only 11th most used because of injury and just not making it a bigger priority.
Below average on all 3 parts of Moreyball and probably one of the lowest overall. Slightly above average efg% and a couple strong defensive marks but 5 other negative factors outweigh.
Do Kuzma and Porzingis stick around? At what price? With what design? The same as now? What improves significantly next season?
Beal with a 3pta rate almost 40% below league average and barely make more than half what it was 3 years ago?? And Coach and team let it happen while giving him the huge extension??
When is next playoff appearance and series win? This will likely be 6 years without series win and I would expect more.
Changes? 3 options are a lot, even more or not enough.
3rd oldest team not playoff ranked and the farthest of the 3 from play-in status.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Sochan 11th on current Spurs roster by BPM at less than -4. Under 26% from 3 for season and 21% over last 6 weeks. But Pop thinks it is fun. Some other projects better and worse. Wesley at almost -9 BPM is worst so far.
No still possible lineup over 1 minute per game for season and only one positive over 25 minutes. Next season is not going to have solid lineup data to build on. 15 most used pairs all almost -8pts / 100p to much worse with 1 mild negative as the exception.
I like some of the newer guys as experiments but not sure what the design is yet. Shedding salaries... in time to soon pay much bigger ones.
No still possible lineup over 1 minute per game for season and only one positive over 25 minutes. Next season is not going to have solid lineup data to build on. 15 most used pairs all almost -8pts / 100p to much worse with 1 mild negative as the exception.
I like some of the newer guys as experiments but not sure what the design is yet. Shedding salaries... in time to soon pay much bigger ones.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Blazers, 5-13 recently. Bad defense.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
2 more losses for Wizards, Playoff chances down to 3.5% at BRef.
Pistons with 14 twenty plus point losses. Spurs with 15.
Pistons with 14 twenty plus point losses. Spurs with 15.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Dallas 14th best against top 10.
7 teams .500 or better against top 10. Champ probably comes from top 4 better than .500. Bucks, Celtics, Sixers, Nuggets.
7 teams .500 or better against top 10. Champ probably comes from top 4 better than .500. Bucks, Celtics, Sixers, Nuggets.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
For the first third on tonight's game the Rockets had hit 94% of their FGAs with no turnovers and still trailed the Griz by 1, who did about the same with some slight difference.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
From year 1 to 2, few changes for Kuminga. An extra assist and 0.5 more turnovers. FT rate down 40%.
Even less change with Moody.
Both BPMs fall. Kuminga's by twice as much.
But Kuminga had a good first half tonight so the twitter lovefest is on and they probably don't care about the season stats.
Even less change with Moody.
Both BPMs fall. Kuminga's by twice as much.
But Kuminga had a good first half tonight so the twitter lovefest is on and they probably don't care about the season stats.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards will lose again.
Avdija with one of his best boxscores of season... except for the team worst +/-.
Avdija with one of his best boxscores of season... except for the team worst +/-.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Warriors tied for 2nd highest 3pta rate. But dead last on FT rate and shot rate at rim.
3pta far lower expected value than FTAs or shots at rim.
Light-years ahead?
2nd highest 3pta rate last season as well but only 8th and 4th lowest on other two.
Arguably low turnovers was biggest factor in Warriors win over Celtics in last year's Final. This regular season? Warriors 2nd worst at protecting the ball. But 29th in last rs too. Can they clean up that again?
3pta far lower expected value than FTAs or shots at rim.
Light-years ahead?
2nd highest 3pta rate last season as well but only 8th and 4th lowest on other two.
Arguably low turnovers was biggest factor in Warriors win over Celtics in last year's Final. This regular season? Warriors 2nd worst at protecting the ball. But 29th in last rs too. Can they clean up that again?
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Doncic, 16th in league on Darko projection. Current measure is his lowest in 40 games.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards playoff chances down to 0.5% at BRef.
1 playoff game won in 5 years.
Beal post Wall not working well enough in several configurations. No reason to expect meaningful near-term improvement. Sheppard and company stuck below average.
One of the least Moreyball teams. Don't have to be; but if the results are just meh, then harder to justify and maintain that approach.
Modest improvement in SRS over last season but still winning less than "expected".
Weak drafting since 2015.
Mediocre to worse for more than 40 years with the exception for brief span of 2013 to 2016 seasons.
Off season changes to roster, coaching, management? I'd recommend more over less. Porzingis and Kuzma have some say whether they want to be there.
Lineup and sub-lineup data has positives... but only one 5 man barely over 2 minutes per game for season and just 2 more much over 1 min / gm. I would massively increase lineup concentration.
Top 4 lineups average +8.6 pts / 100p. Everything else averages -2.4. Why the heck isn't there more lineup concentration?? That is disastrous coaching and management error.
It is near the end of season and they do not have a still possible, positive non-KP lineup tested over 0.5 minutes per game or 35 minutes total.
I put together a 6 lineup rotation from the best bigger minute lineups. 8 players. Dilute a little if want or have to but it is completely minutes feasible and likely better than what they are doing. 2 non-KP lineups to test, alter if they aren't acceptable performers.
Too late to matter now but next season? Manage lineups like now or my way? I know my answer but they will probably do the same sloppy, sub-optimal style and get sub-optimal results again til the next coach... who will likely do similar. Failure to coach correctly, failure to manage correctly. In my view. Hard to claim that the correct approach is being used given the results.
1 playoff game won in 5 years.
Beal post Wall not working well enough in several configurations. No reason to expect meaningful near-term improvement. Sheppard and company stuck below average.
One of the least Moreyball teams. Don't have to be; but if the results are just meh, then harder to justify and maintain that approach.
Modest improvement in SRS over last season but still winning less than "expected".
Weak drafting since 2015.
Mediocre to worse for more than 40 years with the exception for brief span of 2013 to 2016 seasons.
Off season changes to roster, coaching, management? I'd recommend more over less. Porzingis and Kuzma have some say whether they want to be there.
Lineup and sub-lineup data has positives... but only one 5 man barely over 2 minutes per game for season and just 2 more much over 1 min / gm. I would massively increase lineup concentration.
Top 4 lineups average +8.6 pts / 100p. Everything else averages -2.4. Why the heck isn't there more lineup concentration?? That is disastrous coaching and management error.
It is near the end of season and they do not have a still possible, positive non-KP lineup tested over 0.5 minutes per game or 35 minutes total.
I put together a 6 lineup rotation from the best bigger minute lineups. 8 players. Dilute a little if want or have to but it is completely minutes feasible and likely better than what they are doing. 2 non-KP lineups to test, alter if they aren't acceptable performers.
Too late to matter now but next season? Manage lineups like now or my way? I know my answer but they will probably do the same sloppy, sub-optimal style and get sub-optimal results again til the next coach... who will likely do similar. Failure to coach correctly, failure to manage correctly. In my view. Hard to claim that the correct approach is being used given the results.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
7 teams for the final 6 of 10 spots in the west bracket. Who gets bumped out or bumps themselves out?
It will probably be one of Lakers, Thunder, Mavs.
It will probably be one of Lakers, Thunder, Mavs.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Dyson Daniels had hot shooting in first 2 months but it has declined every month and to a cumulatively massive degree.
His 3pt fg% for season is 29%. His TS% in March is 31%.
Was not a lotto pick to me.
His 3pt fg% for season is 29%. His TS% in March is 31%.
Was not a lotto pick to me.