22-23 MVP Tracker

[v-zero]

It's now looking like this is Embiid's to lose. Barring a stretch of poor games for him I am doubtful it won't go his way.

[Mike G]

I just hope he doesn't try too hard for this MVP award. It seems he really lays himself out for some layups, and he's having career best minutes and consecutive games now. It's great to see him play without apparent fear of injury; but I thought that about Anthony Davis, too. And Durant, and Steph.
Sixers should be looking for postseason health, and awards will fall where they will. Last year he missed 2 playoff games, they fell behind Miami 0-2, and never recovered.

[v-zero]

They should absolutely be looking to rest him. I don't know what their front office is thinking in terms of concerns over seeding, and I am dead certain that Embiid is very keen to keep playing and take this MVP. He has never looked better, not to my memory. Against the Pacers the other night he was completely unguardable once he got into rhythm, and showed no doubt in what he wanted to do.

[Mike G]

In the last two weeks, Joker has sucked up about 9% of the 'other' prob%

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3-14   3-28    mvp?
.632   .675   Jokic
.121   .113   Embiid
.078   .071   Giannis
.049   .032   Harden
.034   .029   Luka
.028   .026   Tatum
.025   .026   Sabonis
.010   .010   Butler
.011   .009   Shai
.013   .008   Lillard

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
I think Embiid was up to about 16.4% a week ago. He's had one great game, 2 sub-par, and a no-show, as Sixers lose 4 of 5.

[Mike G]

Final espn straw poll results. (100 voters)

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pts   player   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th
790   Embiid    40   45   15
788   Jokic     42   39   19
612   Giannis   18   15   64    2    1
292   Tatum      0    1    2   90    5
_37   Luka       0    0    0    2   31

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/359 ... razor-thin

"There was snapback from Jokic's big lead in MVP odds, as multiple straw poll voters expressed that there is a higher bar to clear for a third straight MVP."
[Some who earlier voted for Jokic have now unvoted for him.]

[Crow]

Projection is different from this season MVP but fwiw Darko has the 3 leading MVP candidates as top 3 projections while DRIP has them 6th, 7th and 13th. DRIP has Durant #1 on projection, Curry 2, James 3. Raised eyebrow on DRIP.

Not sure how they differ on playoff weighting. That would a reasonable rationale for DRIP though I don't know if it is.

[v-zero]

Projection is different from this season MVP but fwiw Darko has the 3 leading MVP candidates as top 3 projections while DRIP has them 6th, 7th and 13th. DRIP has Durant #1 on projection, Curry 2, James 3. Raised eyebrow on DRIP.

Not sure how they differ on playoff weighting. That would a reasonable rationale for DRIP though I don't know if it is.

I have Jokic 1, Embiid 2, Tatum 3, Kawhi 4, Curry 5, Giannis 6. I think my numbers aren't generous enough to Giannis, but it is very tight from 3rd to 6th.

Durant and LeBron are both outside my top 10 by a fair margin. LeBron especially has definitely declined in his impact, even if not in the box score. And plus minus centric stats have never been a friend to KD.

About the only thing I like about DRIP is their scaling, which to my eye looks far more appropriate than the sillier models that suggest a player is worth +10.

Edit: looking further at DRIP...I think it must be broken. There are some absolutely bonkers impact ratings there.

[Crow]

What are some of the bonkers DRIP impact projections to you?


I just checked Sabonis and Haliburton. DRIP has Sabonis 61, Haliburton 24. Darko has them 71.5 and 47.

[v-zero]

I don't mean to throw shade, I genuinely think there must be a programming error or the model has been fed some bad data. I have looked at DRIP before and thought it looked reasonable. I also am aware that Walker has been productive and is respected within the community.

However, focusing on the top 25 alone, in my opinion/the opinion of the models I work with:

LeBron is too high, Davis is too high, Embiid is too low, Harden is too high, Kyrie is too high, Towns is too high, Tatum is too low, Haliburton is too high, Ingram is too high.

Notable (in my opinion) absences from the top 25:

Jrue Holiday, Immanuel Quickley, Devin Booker, Darius Garland, Steven Adams, Alex Caruso, Jarrett Allen.

Obviously I am sure some I have listed will be controversial selections. It is interesting, maybe, to note that all of the players I have listed as notable absences tend to show up far better in plus-minus variants than in box score metrics, which suggests to me that the bug or issue I am seeing with DRIP might be an over-reliance on the box score and inadequate use of plus-minus data.

[Crow]

Thanks for the reply listings.



N Walker reportedly went to work for Warriors about a year ago.

[v-zero]

Indeed, perhaps in his absence it hasn't been maintained properly, or has been amended (like RPM) so that it favours box score guys over the more unusual (but I think correct) impact guys.

[Mike G]

Most teams are resting their starters (or tanking), so here are the nearly-final rankings in some summary stats.
Ranked by the sum of the square roots of their (5) ranks. Includes everyone in the top 15 in any category.

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T2     player   tm   PER  WS  ws48  BPM VORP   min    PER    WS  ws/48   BPM  VORP
5.0   Jokic    Den    1    1    1    1    1   2296   31.7   14.8  .310  13.1   8.8
8.3   Embiid   Phl    2    4    3    2    3   2284   31.5   12.3  .258   9.1   6.4
9.6   Butler   Mia    6    3    2    4    4   2138   27.6   12.3  .277   8.7   5.7
11.0  Luka     Dal    4    7   10    3    2   2378   28.8   10.2  .206   9.0   6.6
12.0  Shai     OKC    7    5    5    7    5   2416   27.2   11.4  .225   7.2   5.6

13.0  Giannis  Mil    3   13    9    5    6   2024   29.0    8.7  .207   8.5   5.4
14.3  Sabonis  Sac   15    2    6   15    7   2717   23.4   12.5  .221   5.8   5.3
14.6  Lillard  Por    8    9    7    9   10   2107   26.8    9.2  .210   7.1   4.9
15.2  Davis    LAL    5   14    4   11   15   1837   28.0    8.7  .229   6.4   3.9
17.7  Tatum    Bos   13    6   22   17    8   2712   23.7   10.4  .185   5.5   5.1

T2     player   tm   PER  WS  ws48  BPM VORP   min    PER    WS  ws/48   BPM  VORP
18.8  H'burton Ind   14   23   16    8   12   1883   23.6    7.7  .195   7.2   4.4
19.1  Mitchell Cle   18   11   26   12    9   2432   22.9    8.9  .176   6.3   5.0
19.4  Curry    GSW   11   33   21    6   11   1886   23.9    7.3  .186   7.4   4.5
20.3  Durant   tot    9   41   16   10   14   1672   25.9    6.8  .195   7.1   3.9
21.3  Harden   Phl   25   17   19   18   13   2135   21.6    8.3  .187   5.3   4.0

21.7  Kawhi    LAC   12   40   15   13   20   1683   23.9    6.9  .196   6.1   3.4
22.8  Brunson  NYK   28   12   25   22   19   2379   21.2    8.8  .177   3.9   3.5
24.0  Claxton  Brk   30   10   18   31   31   2236   20.8    9.1  .194   3.0   2.8
25.0  J Allen  Cle   37    8   11   40   42   2208   19.9    9.5  .206   2.4   2.4
26.8  LeBron   LAL   10   66   58   14   17   1891   24.0    5.5  .139   6.1   3.8

T2     player   tm   PER  WS  ws48  BPM VORP   min    PER    WS  ws/48   BPM  VORP
27.4  Kessler  Uta   26   37   13   32   48   1703   21.6    7.1  .200   2.9   2.1
28.5  Capela   Atl   20   35   12   44   64   1698   22.2    7.2  .203   2.2   1.8
29.7  Looney   GSW   62   18    8   50   59   1907   17.7    8.3  .208   1.9   1.9
31.5  Mobley   Cle   58   15   40   54   40   2703   17.9    8.6  .152   1.7   2.5
32.7  Robinson NYK   54   46   14   43   68   1564   18.7    6.5  .199   2.4   1.7

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

All-Stars not making the cut: Morant, Fox, Markkanen, Adebayo, DeRozan, Siakam, Holiday, Irving, A Edwards, J Brown, Randle, George