2023 Playoffs, West Conf. round 1

[Mike G]

Kings 3 - 3 Warriors
avg score 116.0 - 115.2
Pyth wins 3.14 - 2.86 , eWins 3.07 - 2.93

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.07  De'Aaron Fox   Sac   39  .535   24.7   5.6   6.5   2.6   3.6   .5   2.21
.80   Stephen Curry   GS   39  .612   27.2   3.4   3.7    .7   3.6   .5   1.62
.60   Malik Monk     Sac   29  .589   22.5   6.0   3.7   1.1   2.4   .6   1.66
.55 Domantas Sabonis Sac   34  .495   14.2  12.4   4.0   2.0   4.5   .7   1.28
.42   Kevon Looney    GS   30  .544    6.6  14.7   4.4    .9   1.7   .8   1.11

.39  Andrew Wiggins   GS   35  .545   16.3   5.0   1.0    .9   1.5  2.2    .89
.37   Klay Thompson   GS   36  .604   19.9   3.2   2.0    .6   2.5   .2    .83
.32  Draymond Green   GS   26  .521   10.1   6.2   7.9   2.1   3.2  1.2   1.02
.31   Jordan Poole    GS   24  .458   15.7   3.0   4.1   2.1   1.6   .5   1.04
.24  Harrison Barnes Sac   31  .530   12.0   4.8    .9   1.8    .6   .4    .63

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   Trey Lyles     Sac   16  .548   12.1  11.7   1.5    .8   1.1   .0    .98
.18   Keegan Murray  Sac   28  .569   10.7   8.2    .7    .5    .7   .4    .51
.16   Moses Moody     GS    8  .756   20.7   5.1   1.7   1.8    .0   .7   1.54
.10 Donte DiVincenzo  GS   19  .468    7.5   4.8   5.8   2.0   2.3   .3    .45
.10   Kevin Huerter  Sac   26  .432   10.2   5.2   1.6    .5    .9  1.6    .31

.10   Gary Payton     GS   14  .674   12.6   6.8    .7   2.3   2.6   .4    .58
.10  Davion Mitchell Sac   22  .533   11.3   2.4   2.7   1.7   1.6   .3    .36
.04   Alex Len       Sac    9  .864   13.6  12.1    .5    .0   4.4  1.9    .38
.00 Jonathan Kuminga  GS    6  .452   10.8   4.1   1.6   1.7   3.0   .0   -.01

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.01  Terence Davis  Sac    5  .500    8.9   6.3   2.7   1.1   3.1   .0   -.17
-.02  JaMychal Green  GS    3  .000     .0   7.2   1.8    .0    .0  2.1   -.51

shooting : GSW .560 - .536 Sac
rebounds: Sac 47.5 - 45.0 GSW
turnovers: Sac 15.2 - 15.7 GSW


Lakers 4 - 2 Grizzlies
avg score 112.2 - 104.7
Pyth wins 4.29 - 1.71 , eWins 3.65 - 2.35

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
1.06  Anthony Davis  LAL   36  .546   21.8  13.2   2.0   1.3   2.6  4.4   2.37
.96   LeBron James   LAL   37  .543   23.4  10.5   5.2   1.0   3.3  1.3   2.10
.72   Ja Morant      Mem   31  .517   23.9   6.0   6.7   1.8   3.4   .2   1.88
.54 D'Angelo Russell LAL   31  .546   21.0   4.1   6.9    .8   2.8   .2   1.41
.52   Austin Reaves  LAL   37  .563   17.5   5.1   5.1    .6   2.1   .5   1.15

.51   Desmond Bane   Mem   39  .540   21.7   5.2   2.9    .5   2.7   .0   1.08
.44   Jaren Jackson  Mem   37  .535   17.4   7.1   1.5   1.0   3.0  2.0    .98
.32   Rui Hachimura  LAL   26  .680   19.2   5.8    .9    .6    .7   .2   1.04
.32  Xavier Tillman  Mem   31  .547    9.7   8.7   3.7    .8    .8   .8    .85
.23  Ja. Vanderbilt  LAL   20  .632   14.4   6.7   2.2   1.5   2.7  2.8    .93

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
.14   Santi Aldama   Mem   17  .574   11.1   7.3   2.1   1.0    .6   .0    .66
.12   Luke Kennard   Mem   18  .720   10.8   5.5   2.1   1.3    .3   .0    .53
.09   Tyus Jones     Mem   20  .360    6.0   4.5   5.9   2.3   2.2   .0    .38
.02  Wenyen Gabriel  LAL    4  .529   12.0   5.0    .0   2.5   2.9  2.6    .36
.01   David Roddy    Mem   13  .390    6.1   6.1   1.6    .0    .4   .8    .08

.01   Dillon Brooks  Mem   28  .391   10.5   3.6   2.3    .2   1.5   .0    .02
.00   Troy Brown     LAL   15  .344    2.7   6.0   2.5    .7    .0   .4    .01
-.01 Dennis Schröder LAL   22  .483    6.8   1.9   4.2   1.7   2.5   .5   -.03
-.01  John Konchar   Mem    8  .222    1.3   5.5   2.4   1.3    .6  1.2   -.14
-.03  Malik Beasley  LAL   11  .463    9.2   2.6    .9    .0   1.0   .0   -.21

shooting : LA .553 - .499 Mem
rebounds: LA 49.7 - 46.5 Mem
turnovers: Mem 13.0 - 14.8 LA

[Crow]

Kings starters, just +0.6 pts / 100p in regular season. Used almost 11 minutes per game. Followed by 4 big positives used 1-3 my nutes per game. Not bad but not optimized.

Kings starters before today in playoffs: -6.4 pts / 100p, followed by 6 big positives. Totally not optimized.

Too much belief in a mild performer. Not enough test or later use of very high performing alternatives.

Lineup management, critical under-performance. Management of lineup management failed too. Might have come up short today anyways but did not appear to be best strategy based on the data.

[Crow]

Kings starters go -34pts / 100p today. Just 7 minutes but started the slide.

Warriors starters go +54 pts / 100p in 23 minutes. Top level proven starting unit comes thru big. That's what you want.

[Crow]

Lakers playoff starters, +23 / 48 min in regular season and same in playoffs. Inadequate rs test but the right call.

[Mike G]

Warriors 4 - 3 Kings
avg score 115.9 - 113.7
Pyth wins 3.93 - 3.07 , eWins 3.72 - 3.28

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.07  Stephen Curry   GS   39  .613   30.9   4.0   4.0    .7   3.2   .4   1.88
.95   De'Aaron Fox   Sac   39  .518   23.1   4.9   6.4   2.2   3.8   .5   1.69
.64 Domantas Sabonis Sac   35  .509   15.3  11.0   4.4   1.6   3.9   .9   1.27
.62   Malik Monk     Sac   29  .566   21.6   6.3   3.8    .9   2.3   .5   1.45
.57   Kevon Looney    GS   30  .578    7.9  16.1   4.6    .8   1.5   .7   1.29

.48   Andrew Wiggins  GS   35  .520   16.5   5.3   1.2    .9   1.4  1.9    .92
.42   Draymond Green  GS   27  .518    9.8   6.1   8.1   2.1   2.6   .9   1.05
.38   Klay Thompson   GS   36  .558   19.4   3.4   1.9    .5   2.4   .1    .73
.34   Jordan Poole    GS   23  .457   16.1   3.4   4.2   1.9   1.7   .7   1.01
.23   Keegan Murray  Sac   28  .557   11.3   7.9    .8    .8    .8   .4    .57

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.22   Trey Lyles     Sac   17  .541   12.1  11.4   1.3    .6    .9   .0    .88
.20  Harrison Barnes Sac   28  .514   12.0   4.3    .8   1.6    .6   .4    .50
.18   Kevin Huerter  Sac   26  .421    9.8   5.9   1.4    .6    .8  1.8    .47
.17   Moses Moody     GS    9  .766   21.0   4.3   1.4   1.5    .6  1.1   1.28
.16 Donte DiVincenzo  GS   17  .500    8.5   5.2   6.1   1.9   2.2   .3    .64

.14   Gary Payton     GS   14  .660   12.2   7.0   1.0   2.0   2.7  1.8    .67
.09  Davion Mitchell Sac   20  .510   11.0   2.2   2.7   1.6   1.5   .3    .31
.07   Alex Len       Sac    8  .792   13.7  12.4    .6    .0   4.6  1.9    .60
.06   Terence Davis  Sac    8  .571   13.5   5.2   3.2    .7   1.8   .0    .51
.01 Jonathan Kuminga  GS    5  .452   11.4   4.3   1.7   1.8   3.0   .0    .17

shooting : GSW .554 - .524 Sac
rebounds: Sac 47.7 - 46.4 GSW
turnovers: Sac 14.1 - 14.4 GSW

[Crow]

Kings lost because of insufficient shooting / scoring efficiency across most of rotation, especially Huerter.

A "surprise", given historic offense in regular season? Yes... but not completely.

Huerter in 3 playoffs: ts% was weak, very weak and now extremely weak.

Sabonis in 4: extremely weak, strong, very weak and weak.

Barnes in 5: below average to way below every time.

Would be worthwhile to check if it is partly logistics of attempts.


We'll eventually see if some in rotation improve but very little basis to expect it for these 3.


Monk is pretty important now and in long run. Murray even more so, if his usage rises from quite low. Fox was mostly ok, not great in first outing.


Don't know many GM voters for Executive of year knew about the playoff shooting weaknesses of Huerter and Sabonis or if they gave it any weight in that vote. I just noticed it. They should have known and given it weight. Looks like it matters.

Huerter added career lowest assists to his shooting / scoring woes. Sabonis add career worst turnover rate. How much blame to players and how much to scheme and coaching management? Kings sweep Coach and Executive awards for moving out of mediocrity. It gets much harder from here.


Re-sign Barnes at a big number? I wouldn't. Sabonis probably waits instead of extending early. Waiting is good for team evaluation but will rise the cost. Retaining either way doesn't necessarily promise a great future.

Barnes by far worst raw team +/- on court at -13pts / 100p. Sabonis 2nd worst at -9. That was disastrous. Can they fix it? Why didn't they?