2023 Playoffs, East Conf. round 2

[Mike G]

Heat 1 - 0 Knicks
108 - 101
Pyth wins .71 - .29 , eWins .60 - .40

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Jimmy Butler   Mia   44  .581   22.6   8.9   3.8   1.7   1.9   .0   1.72
.15   Kyle Lowry     Mia   30  .600   23.8   5.6   7.8   1.2   2.6  4.6   2.33
.14   RJ Barrett      NY   39  .542   24.3   8.9   5.7    .9   3.8   .0   1.73
.10   Gabe Vincent   Mia   33  .571   23.2   2.2   6.3   1.1   1.3   .0   1.50
.09   Jalen Brunson   NY   40  .500   21.4   4.8   5.6    .9   4.6   .0   1.11

.09   Kevin Love     Mia   16  .600   22.7  11.0  10.2    .0    .0   .0   2.56
.08   Obi Toppin      NY   32  .600   18.0   9.6    .0   1.1    .0   .0   1.17
.06   Bam Adebayo    Mia   37  .571   16.2   7.7   2.2    .0   2.2   .0    .79
.06   Mi. Robinson    NY   34  .700    8.4  15.8    .0    .0   2.2  2.2    .79
.05   Max Strus      Mia   23  .667   14.1   3.1   5.4   1.6    .0   .0    .99

eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Caleb Martin   Mia   31  .450    8.2   5.4   1.3   2.3   1.3  1.1    .42
.02   Josh Hart       NY   43  .417    6.1   7.1   2.9    .0    .9   .9    .23
.02  Is. Hartenstein  NY   14  1.00    6.6   4.8   2.0   2.2    .0  2.3    .55
-.01  Im. Quickley    NY   28  .450    8.4   2.6   1.1   1.2   1.2   .0   -.10

shooting : Mia .543 - .526 NYK
rebounds: NYK 48 - 39 Mia
turnovers: Mia 9 - 13 NYK

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2023.html

Extracted from previous rates:

Code: Select all

. Heat     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Knicks    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Butler    21.5   .227    2.9   1.72      Hart       7.7   .031   -4.2    .23
Adebayo   13.6   .083   -3.8    .79      Brunson   15.0  -.025   -1.4   1.11
Vincent   17.5   .158    4.2   1.50      Barrett   20.4   .091    4.0   1.73
Martin    11.3   .054   -0.9    .42      Robinson  13.7   .094   -0.8    .79
Lowry     24.2   .226   12.8   2.33      Toppin    17.6   .194    4.6   1.17
Strus     16.1   .217    4.8    .99      Quickley   7.1   .007   -4.7   -.10
Love      24.7   .297   13.3   2.56    Hartenstein 19.3   .194    7.4    .55
Robinson -12.8  -.244  -24.3   -.74      Grimes     8.4   .095   -0.1   -.13
Zeller    10.2   .132   -0.8   -.03     
Highsmith  7.5   .012   -7.2   -.27                  
. totals  16.0   .145   1.95   1.21      . totals  13.7   .072   0.06    .79

[Mike G]

Sixers 1 - 0 Celtics
119 - 115
Pyth wins .61 - .39 , eWins .56 - .44

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.24   Jayson Tatum   Bos   43  .672   29.7  10.8   3.5    .9    .9   .9   2.66
.20   James Harden   Phl   40  .703   39.2   1.4   4.7   1.8   3.7   .0   2.43
.13   Paul Reed      Phl   38  .833    9.6  19.5   1.6   1.0    .0  1.0   1.70
.11   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   36  .500   21.2   1.6   1.7   4.1    .0   .0   1.49
.10   Jaylen Brown   Bos   41  .958   21.8   6.2   2.9    .9   3.6   .0   1.12

.09   Tobias Harris  Phl   41  .563   13.3   6.9   2.3    .9    .0   .9   1.03
.07   De'An. Melton  Phl   24  .850   24.3   2.2   2.4    .0   1.9  2.8   1.41
.06   Al Horford     Bos   30  .688   12.1   8.4   3.0    .0   2.4  3.7   1.01
.05  Malcolm Brogdon Bos   34  .625   17.6   3.6   2.5    .0   1.0   .0    .76
.04  Robert Williams Bos   20  1.00   10.2  13.4    .0    .0    .0   .0    .85

eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.01  Marcus Smart   Bos   35  .667   11.5   3.6   6.0    .0   6.3   .0   -.10
-.02  Derrick White  Bos   26  .333    3.7   3.2   3.4   1.4   2.8   .0   -.36
-.02  P.J. Tucker    Phl   37   - -     .0   7.7    .8   2.0   1.3   .0   -.27

shooting : Bos .685 - .626 Phl
rebounds: Bos 38 - 28 Phl
turnovers: Phl 8 - 16 Bos

[Mike G]

Heat 1 - 1 Knicks
avg score 106.5 - 106.0
Pyth wins 1.03 - .97 , eWins 1.02 - .98

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.27   Jalen Brunson   NY   40  .598   26.4   4.7   4.0   1.0   2.9   .0   1.65
.24   RJ Barrett      NY   39  .575   24.1   5.8   4.5    .4   3.4   .0   1.45
.19   Julius Randle   NY   19  .595   25.5  12.0   7.4    .0   3.0   .0   2.40
.18   Gabe Vincent   Mia   37  .569   19.6   2.0   5.1    .6    .6   .0   1.20
.17   Kyle Lowry     Mia   31  .500   12.4   5.2   7.1   1.4   2.0  2.8   1.37

.16   Jimmy Butler   Mia   22  .581   21.3   9.3   3.4   2.1   1.9   .0   1.77
.16   Bam Adebayo    Mia   38  .564   14.9   7.9   4.1    .0   1.7   .5   1.03
.16   Josh Hart       NY   38  .453    9.3   9.5   6.0    .4   1.0   .5   1.02
.14   Caleb Martin   Mia   35  .596   15.1   6.9   1.1   1.3    .6   .5    .97
.12   Max Strus      Mia   24  .694   20.6   2.3   3.2   1.0    .0   .0   1.16

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Kevin Love     Mia   20  .459   12.8  10.3   4.8    .0   2.1   .0   1.04
.07   Mi. Robinson    NY   28  .591    8.5  13.1    .0    .0   1.4  1.3    .60
.05   Obi Toppin      NY   21  .529   12.5   7.8    .0    .6    .0   .0    .60
.04  Is. Hartenstein  NY   20  .714    4.7   9.5   1.6   1.3    .0  1.7    .54
.02   Ha. Highsmith  Mia   10  .636   12.3   4.9   3.3    .0   1.8   .0    .41

-.01  Cody Zeller    Mia    8  .750    7.5   4.0    .0   2.5   2.3   .0   -.17
-.02  Im. Quickley    NY   19  .441   10.5   2.8    .9    .7   2.8   .0   -.22
-.02 Duncan Robinson Mia   17  .321    4.8   1.0   3.1    .0    .0   .0   -.31
-.03  Quentin Grimes  NY   19  .467    4.6   2.8    .0    .7    .0   .9   -.33

shooting : Mia .552 - .549 NYK
rebounds: NYK 49.0 - 36.5 Mia
turnovers: Mia 8.0 - 12.0 NYK

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. Heat    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Knicks   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Adebayo  15.0   .116   -1.0   1.03      Brunson  21.1   .149    4.9   1.65
Vincent  15.9   .125    2.0   1.20      Barrett  17.7   .095    2.2   1.45
Martin   16.2   .131    1.9    .97      Hart     13.0   .103    0.6   1.02
Lowry    16.0   .101    4.3   1.37      Robinson 12.1   .098   -3.4    .60
Strus    17.0   .188    3.5   1.16      Toppin   11.2   .097   -0.7    .60
Butler   23.0   .180    2.9   1.77      H'stein  15.7   .206    1.9    .54
Love     11.7   .035   -1.6   1.04      Randle   24.4   .179    7.8   2.40
Robinson  1.0  -.075  -10.2   -.31      Quickley  3.9  -.108  -10.2   -.22
H'smith  12.7   .110   -0.4    .41      Grimes    5.0   .063   -5.3   -.33
Zeller    6.0   .039   -6.5   -.17                  
.totals  14.7   .108   0.53   1.02     . totals  14.6   .104   0.40    .98

[Mike G]

Celtics 1 - 1 Sixers
avg score 118.0 - 103.0
Pyth wins 1.72 - .28 , eWins 1.36 - .64

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.34   Jayson Tatum   Bos   32  .597   27.2  12.0   4.4   .6   1.8  1.2   2.61
.32   Jaylen Brown   Bos   36  .774   30.2   5.2   3.9  1.7   2.7   .0   2.15
.27   James Harden   Phl   36  .559   24.7   6.5   4.1   .9   1.9   .0   1.80
.22  Malcolm Brogdon Bos   29  .652   25.2   6.1   2.8   .0    .6   .6   1.80
.17   Paul Reed      Phl   27  .800   11.2  15.9   2.1   .6    .8  1.3   1.48

.13   Tobias Harris  Phl   37  .607   13.1   6.9   1.2   .5    .0   .5    .82
.12   Al Horford     Bos   27  .444    8.4  10.2   3.3   .8   1.4  3.4   1.11
.12   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   33  .488   15.8   2.6   2.2  2.1    .7   .6    .86
.11  Robert Williams Bos   21  1.00    8.7  12.8   3.1   .0    .0  2.4   1.31
.10   Marcus Smart   Bos   31  .587   16.4   5.4   5.1   .0   4.3   .6    .76

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06  Grant Williams  Bos   17  .750   12.6   4.4   3.7  1.1    .0   .0    .84
.05   Joel Embiid    Phl   13  .577   19.1   4.9    .0   .0   5.2  7.0    .99
.05   De'An. Melton  Phl   21  .633   13.6   2.7   2.5   .7   1.9  1.6    .53
.02   Derrick White  Bos   28  .594   11.6   2.2   2.5   .7   1.4   .0    .21

-.03  P.J. Tucker    Phl   29  .833    3.2   6.6    .5  1.2   1.6   .6   -.28
-.04 Jalen McDaniels Phl   12  .250    1.6   3.1    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.74
-.05  Georges Niang  Phl   14  .429    4.6   1.3    .9   .0   2.9   .0   -.91

shooting : Bos .641 - .555 Phl
rebounds: Bos 42.0 - 34.5 Phl
turnovers: Phl 10.5 - 11.5 Bos

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. Sixers   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Celtics   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harris    17.9   .079    1.4    .82      Brown     25.7   .269    8.4   2.15
Harden    24.6   .095    4.1   1.80      Tatum     26.1   .264    4.1   2.61
Maxey     16.1  -.021   -2.4    .86      Smart     12.9   .062   -5.0    .76
Tucker     5.5  -.014   -3.0   -.28      Brogdon   24.0   .236    5.2   1.80
Reed      22.1   .241    4.4   1.48      White     10.9   .113   -2.8    .21
Melton    16.3   .025    3.5    .53      Horford   14.6   .100    1.3   1.11
Niang      -.5  -.191  -10.2   -.91     R Williams 20.2   .278    7.1   1.31
Embiid    18.4  -.135    0.9    .99     G Williams 17.0   .229    8.4    .84
McDaniels -1.3  -.215  -11.6   -.74      Hauser     5.7  -.019   -4.1   -.59
Springer   3.7  -.033   -9.0   -.83      Pritchard 30.1   .323   16.7   2.20
Milton    33.5   .393   19.1   1.76                        
House     -2.7  -.292  -14.7   -.35                        
. totals  14.6   .023  -0.47    .64     . totals   19.3   .189   3.32   1.36

[Mike G]

Celtics 2 - 1 Sixers
avg score 116.7 - 102.7
Pyth wins 2.54 - .46 , eWins 2.02 - .98

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.53   Jayson Tatum   Bos   35  .598   26.9  10.8   4.6   1.1   2.5  1.0   2.41
.45   Jaylen Brown   Bos   35  .676   28.2   6.1   4.6   1.4   3.2   .3   2.02
.34   James Harden   Phl   38  .525   20.4   6.0   6.0    .9   3.0   .0   1.43
.30  Malcolm Brogdon Bos   28  .617   23.5   5.3   4.5    .0    .8   .4   1.70
.26   Joel Embiid    Phl   22  .592   23.4   9.6   1.5    .5   3.9  5.0   1.88

.25   Al Horford     Bos   28  .635   13.6   9.5   3.0   1.3    .9  2.1   1.42
.17   Marcus Smart   Bos   32  .538   16.0   4.6   5.0   1.2   3.5   .4    .86
.15   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   35  .456   12.4   3.7   2.1   1.3    .4  1.0    .66
.14  Robert Williams Bos   19  1.00    8.4  11.8   2.3    .6    .0  3.3   1.22
.13   De'A. Melton   Phl   24  .635   13.6   5.5   2.0   2.2   1.6  1.4    .90

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.12   Paul Reed      Phl   21  .800    8.5  12.6   1.9    .5    .6  1.1    .92
.11   Tobias Harris  Phl   33  .586   11.7   6.4   1.3    .4    .9   .7    .53
.08   Derrick White  Bos   30  .604   12.4   4.1   2.5    .4   1.3   .0    .41
.03  Grant Williams  Bos   19  .545    5.4   5.0   2.9    .6    .0  1.1    .24

-.02  P.J. Tucker    Phl   27  1.00    6.8   4.7   1.2   1.3   2.0   .4   -.12
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl   12  .375    2.9   4.6    .7    .0    .0   .0   -.42
-.05  Georges Niang  Phl   15  .571    7.9    .7    .6    .0   1.6   .0   -.53

shooting : Bos .622 - .556 Phl
rebounds: Bos 43.0 - 37.0 Phl
turnovers: 11.7 - 11.7

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. Sixers   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Celtics   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden    18.8   .033    0.6   1.43      Brown     23.1   .218    5.6   2.02
Maxey     12.1  -.044   -3.7    .66      Tatum     24.2   .218    4.7   2.41
Harris    13.8   .025   -1.4    .53      Smart     12.5   .059   -3.7    .86
Tucker     8.2   .030   -0.3   -.12      White     11.7   .117   -1.7    .41
Melton    18.7   .082    6.4    .90      Brogdon   22.3   .218    5.3   1.70
Embiid    26.0   .098    5.3   1.88      Horford   19.0   .206    6.9   1.42
Reed      19.1   .197    2.9    .92     R Williams 21.2   .305    7.5   1.22
Niang      5.9  -.071   -5.6   -.53     G Williams 10.1   .127    2.3    .24
McDaniels  4.1  -.095   -6.5   -.42                  
. totals  14.4   .031  -0.19    .66     . totals   18.3   .179   3.23   1.35

[Mike G]

Heat 2 - 1 Knicks
avg score 106.0 - 99.3
Pyth wins 2.11 - .89 , eWins 1.81 - 1.19

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.42   Jalen Brunson   NY   39  .543   23.6   4.5   5.0    .8   1.9   .0   1.73
.36   Jimmy Butler   Mia   26  .552   26.3   7.4   3.5   1.1   2.0   .9   2.21
.33   Kyle Lowry     Mia   29  .543   16.3   5.2   7.1   1.0   1.4  2.4   1.82
.31   Bam Adebayo    Mia   37  .552   16.6   9.9   2.9    .0   1.5   .7   1.34
.27   RJ Barrett      NY   34  .525   22.4   4.8   3.7    .3   2.9   .0   1.28

.27   Max Strus      Mia   26  .667   24.7   3.1   2.1   1.1    .0   .5   1.65
.23   Josh Hart       NY   38  .476   10.9   8.9   4.6    .5   1.3   .3    .99
.20   Gabe Vincent   Mia   35  .505   15.7   1.5   5.4   1.3   1.2   .0    .91
.18   Julius Randle   NY   25  .455   14.4  11.2   4.6    .0   3.5   .0   1.12
.15   Kevin Love     Mia   21  .429   10.4  12.7   5.8    .0   2.6   .0   1.14

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Caleb Martin   Mia   31  .548   13.3   7.5    .9    .9   1.3   .4    .72
.07   Ha. Highsmith  Mia   11  .632   14.9  10.2   2.3    .0   1.2   .0   1.07
.05   Obi Toppin      NY   20  .500   12.2   6.5    .6   1.0   1.9   .6    .42
.05   Mi. Robinson    NY   23  .577    8.4  11.6    .0    .0   1.7  1.1    .35
.02   Cody Zeller    Mia    9  .563   11.9  10.3   1.3   1.4   4.0   .0    .41

.02  Is. Hartenstein  NY   22  .714    3.3   6.6   1.5    .9    .0  2.1    .16
.00   Im. Quickley    NY   19  .450   13.3   2.2    .6   1.0   2.5   .0    .01
-.03 Duncan Robinson Mia   15  .317    5.6   1.6   3.2    .0    .8   .0   -.34
-.03  Quentin Grimes  NY   19  .500    7.6   2.1    .0   1.0    .6   .6   -.28

shooting : Mia .533 - .505 NYK
rebounds: NYK 48.7 - 41.0 Mia
turnovers: Mia 10.0 - 12.3 NYK

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. Heat     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Knicks   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Adebayo   15.5   .150    0.0   1.34      Brunson  19.8   .150    5.0   1.73
Vincent   11.7   .097    0.4    .91      Hart     12.8   .102    1.2    .99
Martin    12.0   .119   -0.9    .72      Barrett  14.3   .052    1.1   1.28
Lowry     18.2   .178    7.4   1.82      Randle   11.9  -.005   -0.8   1.12
Butler    23.8   .218    6.5   2.21      Robinson 11.1   .084   -4.8    .35
Strus     18.2   .226    6.5   1.65   Hartenstein 11.6   .159    0.6    .16
Love      10.2   .077   -0.8   1.14      Toppin    8.6   .029   -1.6    .42
Robinson    .1  -.053   -9.7   -.34      Grimes    6.5   .063   -3.3   -.28
Highsmith 15.7   .197    2.8   1.07      Quickley  6.6  -.062   -4.9    .01
Zeller     5.7   .011   -5.8    .41                  
. totals  14.1   .133   1.39   1.20     . totals  12.3   .072   -0.19   .80

[Mike G]

Celtics 2 - 2 Sixers
avg score 116.3 - 106.0
Pyth wins 3.09 - .91 , eWins 2.55 - 1.45

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e493
.73   Jayson Tatum   Bos   38  .574   23.8  12.1   4.6   1.1   2.2  1.7   2.36
.65   James Harden   Phl   40  .608   25.1   6.4   6.2   1.4   2.5   .2   2.01
.53   Jaylen Brown   Bos   38  .676   25.7   5.1   4.5   1.1   2.5   .2   1.73
.44   Joel Embiid    Phl   28  .552   23.8  10.6   2.1    .6   3.1  2.9   1.94
.37  Malcolm Brogdon Bos   30  .631   22.4   6.2   3.8    .0   1.2   .3   1.51

.35   Al Horford     Bos   31  .597   11.9   8.7   3.3   1.7    .6  3.0   1.41
.25   Marcus Smart   Bos   35  .558   16.8   4.0   5.3    .9   3.2   .3    .90
.18   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   38  .446   11.1   4.9   1.8   1.3    .6  1.0    .58
.15  Robert Williams Bos   18  .889    8.6  10.1   2.2    .5    .5  3.1   1.02
.13   Paul Reed      Phl   17  .750    8.4  13.2   1.7    .4    .6   .9    .92

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e493
.10   Tobias Harris  Phl   36  .543    9.9   6.5   1.4    .4   1.2   .5    .34
.09   De'An. Melton  Phl   24  .589   10.0   5.0   2.2   1.8   1.6  1.0    .48
.08   Derrick White  Bos   30  .587   12.0   3.6   1.8    .4    .9   .3    .34
.02  Grant Williams  Bos   17  .538    5.3   4.6   2.4    .5    .5  1.4    .12

-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl    9  .375    3.0   4.8    .8    .0    .0   .0   -.37
-.04  P.J. Tucker    Phl   29  .800    6.1   4.6   1.1    .8   1.5   .3   -.19
-.05  Georges Niang  Phl   16  .625    8.6    .5    .4    .0   1.1   .5   -.41

shooting : Bos .613 - .559 Phl
rebounds: Bos 43.3 - 38.8 Phl
turnovers: Phl 11.0 - 11.3 Bos

Code: Select all

. Sixers   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Celtics  PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden    26.7   .180    8.7   2.01      Tatum    24.2   .204    5.1   2.36
Maxey     12.3  -.033   -3.2    .58      Brown    22.1   .193    4.8   1.73
Harris    11.3   .005   -3.4    .34      Smart    13.1   .064   -3.1    .90
Tucker     7.8   .035   -1.4   -.19      Horford  19.2   .193    7.6   1.41
Embiid    25.2   .107    4.3   1.94      Brogdon  20.8   .194    4.2   1.51
Melton    13.6   .037    2.0    .48      White    12.0   .093   -2.2    .34
Reed      19.1   .180    2.5    .92    R Williams 19.6   .254    5.3   1.02
Niang      7.9  -.013   -3.5   -.41    G Williams  9.3   .093    0.5    .12
McDaniels  4.1  -.113   -6.5   -.37                  
. totals  15.2   .049   0.41    .73     . totals  18.1   .160   2.86   1.28

[Mike G]

Heat 3 - 1 Knicks
avg score 106.8 - 99.8
Pyth wins 2.85 - 1.15 , eWins 2.42 - 1.58

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.64   Jalen Brunson   NY   41  .560   24.9   4.3   6.0    .8   1.6   .0   1.91
.62   Jimmy Butler   Mia   30  .576   27.6   6.9   5.5   1.3   2.3  1.2   2.46
.46   Bam Adebayo    Mia   37  .563   18.9  10.9   2.6    .3   2.2   .5   1.48
.46   Kyle Lowry     Mia   28  .602   19.2   5.7   6.6   1.0   1.0  1.8   1.96
.41   RJ Barrett      NY   35  .561   24.4   4.8   3.5    .5   3.0   .0   1.42

.31   Max Strus      Mia   29  .652   20.9   4.1   2.0   1.0    .7   .6   1.29
.25   Julius Randle   NY   29  .509   16.9  10.5   3.9    .0   4.3   .0   1.04
.19   Kevin Love     Mia   22  .475   11.2  11.5   5.0    .0   1.9   .0   1.09
.19   Gabe Vincent   Mia   32  .467   12.7   1.3   5.9   1.6   1.0   .0    .74
.18   Caleb Martin   Mia   30  .564   13.0   7.4   1.3    .7   1.0   .6    .75

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.17   Josh Hart       NY   34  .453    9.4   8.3   3.8    .5   1.7   .3    .61
.07   Ha. Highsmith  Mia   10  .667   14.0   9.9   1.8    .0    .9   .0    .92
.07   Mi. Robinson    NY   26  .553    7.3  10.5    .3    .3   1.9  1.4    .32
.05   Obi Toppin      NY   16  .500   11.9   6.5    .5   1.0   1.7   .5    .40
.03  Is. Hartenstein  NY   20  .636    3.0   6.7   1.2    .8    .0  2.5    .18

-.00  Im. Quickley    NY   14  .450   12.6   2.2    .6   1.1   2.4   .0   -.02
-.00  Cody Zeller    Mia    9  .500    9.6   8.6    .9   1.0   3.9   .0   -.05
-.04  Quentin Grimes  NY   25  .522    7.1   3.0    .7   1.3   1.1   .3   -.18
-.06 Duncan Robinson Mia   14  .281    4.8   1.9   3.1    .0   1.9   .0   -.50

shooting : Mia .541 - .521 NYK
rebounds: NYK 45.3 - 41.8 Mia
turnovers: Mia 10.8 - 13.5 NYK

Code: Select all

. Heat     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Knicks   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Adebayo   16.0   .140   -0.3   1.48      Brunson  21.4   .182    6.2   1.91
Vincent   10.2   .089   -0.4    .74      Barrett  16.1   .069    2.6   1.42
Butler    24.9   .254    8.7   2.46      Hart      9.2   .040   -2.1    .61
Martin    13.1   .141    0.5    .75      Randle   11.4  -.013   -1.9   1.04
Strus     16.3   .189    4.8   1.29      Robinson 10.7   .067   -3.4    .32
Lowry     20.8   .246    9.2   1.96      Grimes    6.5   .058   -2.1   -.18
Love      10.9   .108    0.3   1.09   Hartenstein 12.0   .154    1.0    .18
Robinson  -3.6  -.147  -13.7   -.50      Toppin    9.3   .014   -1.9    .40
Highsmith 16.1   .213    2.6    .92      Quickley  6.3  -.093   -4.9   -.02
Zeller     1.6  -.051  -10.5   -.05                  
. totals  14.4   .140   1.58   1.21     . totals  12.3   .064   -0.17   .79

[Mike G]

Sixers 3 - 2 Celtics
avg score: Bos 113.6 - 107.8 Phl
Pyth wins 3.34 - 1.66 , eWins 2.92 - 2.08

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e490
.96   Jayson Tatum   Bos   38  .564   25.2  11.3   4.6   1.3   2.2  1.3   2.44
.84   James Harden   Phl   40  .614   24.2   6.9   6.9   1.5   2.5   .2   2.07
.64   Joel Embiid    Phl   30  .560   26.3  10.0   2.3    .4   3.7  3.2   2.10
.63   Jaylen Brown   Bos   37  .659   25.9   5.2   4.0    .9   2.6   .2   1.68
.38  Malcolm Brogdon Bos   29  .600   19.0   5.6   4.0    .0    .9   .2   1.26

.35   Al Horford     Bos   30  .500    8.7   8.2   3.7   2.0    .7  2.7   1.17
.32   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   39  .495   13.8   5.4   2.0   1.0    .7   .8    .81
.30   Marcus Smart   Bos   34  .562   16.3   3.8   5.1    .7   3.0   .2    .84
.20   Tobias Harris  Phl   35  .579   11.6   8.0   1.4    .4   1.3   .4    .57
.13   Paul Reed      Phl   15  .769    8.9  11.8   1.6    .7    .5   .8    .88

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e490
.13  Robert Williams Bos   18  .833    8.2   8.4   1.8    .4    .4  2.4    .73
.11   De'An. Melton  Phl   24  .578    8.9   5.2   2.0   1.7   1.4  1.1    .43
.10 Payton Pritchard Bos    4  .941   31.7   4.2   5.3   1.5   2.7   .0   2.28
.06   Derrick White  Bos   31  .567   10.2   4.0   1.4    .3    .7   .2    .20
.03   Danuel House   Phl    5  .520   12.1   7.9   1.1    .0    .0   .0    .62

-.01  Grant Williams Bos   15  .500    4.3   3.8   2.4    .5    .4  1.2   -.05
-.02  Sam Hauser     Bos    3  .300    2.4    .0   1.6   1.8    .0   .0   -.50
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl    7  .375    2.9   4.7    .8    .0    .0   .0   -.38
-.06  P.J. Tucker    Phl   30  .697    5.0   5.5   1.1    .6   1.2   .2   -.19
-.09  Georges Niang  Phl   15  .595    6.7    .4    .4    .0   1.0   .4   -.56

shooting : Bos .592 - .572 Phl
rebounds: Bos 41.8 - 40.8 Phl
turnovers: Bos 10.6 - 11.4 Phl

Code: Select all

. Sixers   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Celts    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden    26.2   .207    8.8   2.07      Tatum    25.1   .194    6.7   2.44
Maxey     14.6   .031   -1.1    .81      Brown    20.7   .150    4.0   1.68
Harris    13.0   .048   -2.3    .57      Smart    13.2   .062   -2.6    .84
Embiid    26.1   .135    4.7   2.10      White    10.8   .075   -3.1    .20
Tucker     6.7   .039   -1.8   -.19      Horford  16.2   .130    5.3   1.17
Melton    13.3   .061    2.1    .43      Brogdon  18.8   .153    3.0   1.26
Niang      5.9  -.016   -4.5   -.56    R Williams 17.4   .210    3.1    .73
Reed      19.2   .195    2.8    .88    G Williams  7.7   .072   -0.8   -.05
McDaniels  4.1  -.113   -6.5   -.38     Pritchard 29.9   .304   17.8   2.28
House     15.2   .077   -2.4    .62      Hauser    3.6  -.032   -5.9   -.50
. totals  15.8   .080   0.98    .83     . totals  17.1   .132   2.33   1.17

[Mike G]

Heat 3 - 2 Knicks
avg score 106.0 - 102.2
Pyth wins 3.10 - 1.90 , eWins 2.80 - 2.20

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.91   Jalen Brunson   NY   42  .587   27.1   4.8   6.0    .7   1.5   .0   2.08
.79   Jimmy Butler   Mia   33  .569   24.6   6.8   6.0   1.9   1.9  1.3   2.30
.56   Bam Adebayo    Mia   38  .586   19.2  10.4   2.4    .4   2.1   .6   1.42
.53   RJ Barrett      NY   35  .573   25.4   5.2   3.3    .4   3.3   .2   1.45
.44   Kyle Lowry     Mia   29  .559   16.0   4.7   6.2   1.2   1.3  1.7   1.46

.39   Julius Randle   NY   30  .549   20.0   9.3   4.3    .2   4.3   .0   1.25
.35   Max Strus      Mia   28  .649   20.8   4.3   1.6    .8    .6   .5   1.19
.23   Caleb Martin   Mia   29  .591   13.9   6.8   1.8    .7   1.3   .5    .76
.19   Kevin Love     Mia   20  .407    9.2  11.8   4.9    .0   2.0   .0    .87
.18   Gabe Vincent   Mia   30  .440   11.4   2.1   5.9   1.5   1.6   .0    .59

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Josh Hart       NY   29  .455    9.3   8.3   3.9    .5   2.1   .2    .52
.13   Mi. Robinson    NY   26  .518    7.8  11.6    .9    .8   2.1  1.2    .50
.07  Is. Hartenstein  NY   20  .733    4.3   7.2   1.3    .9    .0  2.3    .32
.06   Ha. Highsmith  Mia    8  .667   12.8   9.3   1.6    .0    .8   .0    .71
.05   Obi Toppin      NY   15  .483   10.1   8.0    .4    .8   1.8   .4    .33

.01   Cody Zeller    Mia    9  .533   11.7   8.3   1.5    .7   3.8   .0    .14
.01  Duncan Robinson Mia   16  .398    9.7   1.8   2.6    .9   1.3   .0    .04
-.00  Im. Quickley    NY   11  .450   12.4   2.2    .6   1.1   2.4   .0   -.02
-.03  Quentin Grimes  NY   30  .516    6.8   3.0   1.6   1.4   1.8   .7   -.10

shooting : .539 - .539
rebounds: NYK 46.2 - 40.2 Mia
turnovers: Mia 11.0 - 14.6 NYK

Code: Select all

. Heat     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Knicks   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Adebayo   16.6   .144   -0.2   1.42      Brunson  23.3   .233    7.0   2.08
Butler    24.8   .250    8.9   2.30      Barrett  16.1   .085    1.9   1.45
Vincent    8.4   .030   -2.5    .59      Randle   13.7   .043    0.2   1.25
Martin    13.3   .129    0.7    .76      Grimes    6.2   .044   -1.7   -.10
Lowry     17.5   .177    6.3   1.46      Hart      8.2   .028   -3.1    .52
Strus     16.0   .166    4.2   1.19      Robinson 11.9   .080   -2.9    .50
Love       8.1   .033   -3.0    .87   Hartenstein 13.6   .188    2.0    .32
Robinson   4.1  -.058   -6.5    .04      Toppin    8.4   .006   -2.9    .33
Zeller     3.9  -.029   -9.5    .14      Quickley  6.0  -.090   -4.9   -.02
Highsmith 14.9   .192    1.4    .71                  
. totals  14.2   .120   1.19   1.12     . totals  13.1   .087   0.27    .88

[Mike G]

Celtics 3 - 3 Sixers
avg score 110.5 - 104.2
Pyth wins 4.12 - 1.88 , eWins 3.56 - 2.44

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
1.09  Jayson Tatum   Bos   39  .537   23.5  10.6   4.9   1.5   2.4  1.4   2.26
.91   James Harden   Phl   40  .575   21.5   6.7   7.1   1.6   2.9   .3   1.83
.78   Joel Embiid    Phl   32  .561   26.1   9.8   2.0    .5   3.7  3.1   2.02
.71   Jaylen Brown   Bos   37  .643   24.9   5.3   4.1    .8   2.9   .2   1.55
.47  Malcolm Brogdon Bos   29  .617   20.3   5.9   3.8    .2   1.6   .2   1.30

.47   Marcus Smart   Bos   36  .579   17.8   4.3   5.5   1.0   3.0   .2   1.07
.46   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   39  .508   15.4   5.2   2.1   1.2    .6   .6    .97
.37   Al Horford     Bos   31  .469    7.0   8.7   3.2   1.8    .6  2.3    .96
.21  Robert Williams Bos   20  .750    9.5   9.3   1.8    .3    .6  2.5    .88
.21   Tobias Harris  Phl   36  .531    9.4   7.5   1.6    .6   1.0   .7    .46

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
.13   Paul Reed      Phl   14  .714    8.4  11.3   1.5   1.0   1.0   .8    .76
.12   Derrick White  Bos   29  .588   11.3   3.9   1.5    .5    .9   .4    .33
.11 Payton Pritchard Bos    4  .941   34.1   4.3   5.7   1.6   2.8   .0   2.51
.10   De'An. Melton  Phl   24  .500    6.9   5.6   2.0   1.6   1.1  1.2    .33
.03   Danuel House   Phl    5  .516   11.9   8.4    .9    .0   1.1   .0    .50

.00  Grant Williams  Bos   13  .500    4.5   3.8   2.6    .5    .4  1.2    .00
-.02  P.J. Tucker    Phl   28  .633    5.8   5.3   1.2   1.1   1.0   .2   -.06
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl    6  .375    3.0   4.6    .8    .0    .0   .0   -.39
-.11  Georges Niang  Phl   15  .646    6.2    .4    .3    .0    .8   .3   -.61

shooting : Bos .586 - .554 Phl
rebounds: Bos 43.2 - 40.3 Phl
turnovers: Phl 11.5 - 11.8 Bos

Code: Select all

. Sixers   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Celts    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden    23.0   .154    6.8   1.83      Tatum    22.5   .166    6.1   2.26
Maxey     16.2   .060    0.9    .97      Brown    18.6   .141    2.9   1.55
Harris    11.2   .041   -2.6    .46      Smart    14.9   .103   -0.3   1.07
Embiid    24.4   .120    4.3   2.02      Horford  13.7   .125    3.6    .96
Tucker     8.0   .056   -0.5   -.06      Brogdon  18.0   .149    3.1   1.30
Melton    11.3   .037    0.8    .33      White    11.9   .102   -1.4    .33
Niang      6.9   .019   -3.4   -.61    R Williams 17.4   .217    3.5    .88
Reed      17.2   .165    1.5    .76    G Williams  7.9   .085   -0.8    .00
McDaniels  3.8  -.095   -6.5   -.39     Pritchard 30.0   .314   17.8   2.51
House     12.4   .019   -3.2    .50      Hauser    3.6   .005   -5.9   -.44
. totals  15.2   .074   1.01    .81     . totals  16.5   .138   2.50   1.19

[Mike G]

Heat 4 - 2 Knicks
avg score 104.3 - 100.5
Pyth wins 3.73 - 2.27 , eWins 3.37 - 2.63

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.22  Jalen Brunson   NY   43  .620   30.8   4.6   5.6    .9   1.6   .0   2.30
.91   Jimmy Butler   Mia   34  .537   23.4   7.0   5.7   1.4   1.5  1.1   2.13
.70   Bam Adebayo    Mia   38  .569   19.8  10.3   2.2    .6   2.1   .6   1.48
.59   Kyle Lowry     Mia   29  .584   16.7   4.8   7.1   1.6   1.3  1.6   1.63
.50   RJ Barrett      NY   35  .546   22.9   4.8   3.1    .4   3.3   .2   1.15

.47   Julius Randle   NY   31  .519   18.4   9.7   4.2    .2   4.1   .4   1.21
.42   Max Strus      Mia   29  .620   19.4   4.9   2.0    .6    .5   .4   1.15
.26   Caleb Martin   Mia   28  .583   13.7   6.9   1.7    .8   1.3   .4    .74
.21   Kevin Love     Mia   20  .434    9.4  11.3   4.7    .0   1.7   .0    .85
.21   Gabe Vincent   Mia   30  .440   10.9   2.5   6.1   1.4   1.8   .0    .55

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   Josh Hart       NY   30  .471    9.8   8.2   3.5    .6   2.1   .4    .54
.14   Mi. Robinson    NY   26  .500    6.6  12.1   1.0    .2   1.7  1.2    .43
.09   Obi Toppin      NY   15  .500   11.4   8.0    .8    .8   1.6   .4    .50
.08  Is. Hartenstein  NY   20  .684    4.1   6.4   1.1   1.1    .0  3.0    .32
.06   Ha. Highsmith  Mia    7  .667   13.1   9.4   1.7    .0    .8   .0    .74

.01  Duncan Robinson Mia   16  .402    9.9   1.5   2.2   1.0   1.1   .0    .04
.00   Cody Zeller    Mia    9  .533   10.0   8.3   1.9    .6   3.7   .0    .03
.00   Im. Quickley    NY   10  .450   12.7   2.2    .6   1.2   2.4   .0    .01
-.07  Quentin Grimes  NY   30  .473    5.8   2.9   2.0   1.2   1.6   .6   -.18

shooting : NYK .537 - .534 Mia
rebounds: NYK 45.3 - 40.2 Mia
turnovers: Mia 10.3 - 14.2 NYK

Note: the 3 competitive factors (above) should not yield a 4 ppg margin for Miami. A 5 Reb advantage for NY would about offset 4 TO edge for the Heat.
During the season, Team Rebounds -- the real kind, ball out of bounds off the opponent -- were 2.5% better than avg for the Heat, and only .956 of avg for the Knicks. The ratio is (1025/956) 1.073, and if that carries over to this series, then Heat rebound rates should be boosted by ` 7% relative to Knicks
It turns out that 87% of that adjustment is just right to make the points, Pythagorean wins, and eWins scale properly.

Check the 4 Factors box here:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nicks.html
Even if the Heat had matched the Knicks' turnover% -- winning none of the 4 Factors -- they could have won the series. Thanks to "hustle plays" that aren't in the boxscore.

Code: Select all

. Heat     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Knicks   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Adebayo   16.9   .134    0.2   1.49      Brunson  25.1   .257    8.5   2.30
Butler    23.2   .219    7.1   2.14      Barrett  13.6   .051   -0.5   1.14
Vincent    8.0   .025   -2.7    .55      Randle   13.3   .033   -0.1   1.21
Strus     15.3   .157    3.4   1.15      Grimes    5.1   .024   -2.5   -.18
Lowry     19.4   .210    8.3   1.64      Hart      8.5   .034   -2.9    .53
Martin    12.6   .121    0.3    .74     Robinson  11.4   .089   -3.0    .42
Love       8.6   .055   -2.2    .85   Hartenstein 13.6   .183    2.4    .32
Robinson   4.5  -.055   -5.6    .04      Toppin   10.2   .032   -1.0    .49
Zeller     2.8  -.032   -9.6    .04      Quickley  6.3  -.102   -4.9    .01
Highsmith 15.3   .196    1.4    .75      McBride  -8.3  -.180  -10.5   -.30
. totals  14.2   .119   1.28   1.13     . totals  13.0   .086   0.31    .87

[Mike G]

Celtics 4 - 3 Sixers
avg score 110.7 - 101.9
Pyth wins 5.26 - 1.74 , eWins 4.38 - 2.62

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
1.57  Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .575   28.5  11.0   4.9   1.6   2.1  1.2   2.77
.92   James Harden   Phl   40  .558   19.2   6.5   6.8   1.6   3.3   .4   1.59
.89   Jaylen Brown   Bos   38  .635   25.3   5.5   3.8   1.0   2.9   .4   1.64
.80   Joel Embiid    Phl   33  .531   23.3   9.5   1.8    .4   3.9  2.9   1.70
.50   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   39  .517   15.1   4.8   2.3   1.0    .6   .5    .88

.50  Malcolm Brogdon Bos   29  .589   19.0   5.5   3.7    .2   1.4   .2   1.18
.49   Marcus Smart   Bos   36  .573   16.3   4.3   5.4    .8   2.9   .3    .95
.47   Al Horford     Bos   32  .472    6.8   9.3   3.3   1.9    .5  2.5   1.05
.24   Tobias Harris  Phl   37  .551   10.3   7.0   1.3    .6   1.0   .6    .45
.23  Robert Williams Bos   21  .692    9.0   9.0   1.7    .5    .7  2.1    .76

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
.14   Paul Reed      Phl   13  .647    7.7  12.1   1.6    .9    .8   .7    .77
.11 Payton Pritchard Bos    3  .941   32.2   3.9   5.2   1.4   3.8   .0   2.15
.10   Derrick White  Bos   26  .573   10.8   3.7   1.4    .5    .8   .6    .26
.09   De'An. Melton  Phl   25  .468    6.5   5.7   1.8   1.3   1.2  1.4    .26
.04   Danuel House   Phl    5  .488   11.4   8.6    .7    .0    .9   .0    .46

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
.00   P.J. Tucker    Phl   27  .667    7.3   4.8   1.1   1.0    .9   .4    .01
.00  Grant Williams  Bos   11  .500    4.4   4.1   2.9    .5    .4  1.2    .02
-.02  Sam Hauser     Bos    3  .250    2.0    .0   1.5   1.7    .0   .0   -.57
-.03 Jalen McDaniels Phl    5  .375    2.9   4.5    .8    .0    .0   .0   -.42
-.08  Georges Niang  Phl   14  .620    8.6    .4    .3    .0    .8   .7   -.40

shooting : Bos .586 - .543 Phl
rebounds: Bos 43.1 - 39.9 Phl
turnovers: Bos 11.3 - 11.9 Phl

In the final game, Tatum added .48 eWins, vs .18 by Philly.

Code: Select all

. Sixers   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Celts    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden    20.6   .108    5.3   1.59      Tatum    26.7   .242    9.4   2.77
Maxey     15.8   .060    0.9    .88      Brown    19.1   .152    3.4   1.64
Harris    11.7   .045   -1.9    .45      Smart    13.5   .101   -0.9    .95
Embiid    20.6   .056    1.9   1.70      Horford  14.2   .149    4.5   1.05
Tucker     9.2   .067    0.7    .01      Brogdon  16.7   .140    2.1   1.18
Melton    10.6   .017    0.1    .26      White    11.3   .108   -1.6    .26
Niang      6.8   .006   -3.2   -.40    R Williams 15.8   .201    2.4    .76
Reed      17.2   .157    1.8    .77    G Williams  8.2   .103   -0.3    .02
House     11.7  -.014   -3.9    .46     Pritchard 25.6   .240   13.7   2.15
McDaniels  3.8  -.109   -6.5   -.42      Hauser    1.4  -.008   -8.1   -.57
Springer  21.8   .167    5.4    .62      Kornet   26.6   .328    6.9   1.36
Milton    14.6   .058    3.4    .15                  
. totals  14.5   .057   0.72    .75     . totals  16.8   .154   2.87   1.25