I'd trade Beal. I might trade Porzingis (if able) depending on the return offered and contract talks. I'd be willing to trade Gafford and definitely Davis. Maybe Kispert, but not til at least the trade deadline. I would not re-sign Kuzma unless the number was good. I'd start D Wright if Porzingis is retained and if better is not obtained from the other trades. I'd probably retain Avdija, Huff, Cooks and Morris.
I'd go from current very low Moreyball level to high to very high.
I'd get a new coach by next summer at latest if it doesn't work. Would prefer sooner but play it by ear.
Look for an elite big (preferably center) offering some combo of high Moreyball scoring, elite rebounding and / or rim protection. And 3 & D wings.
Probably try to be somewhat more aggressive on defense.
I'd highly prioritize 20-30 lineups early with goal to increase concentration on 5-7 over time.
An off the cuff 17 point plan.
Tank or rebuild? Depends if you retain Porzingis. Probably tank, if you get enough draft picks and young players from the assets traded in.
Wizards' next steps
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Wright - Porzingis was +10 to +11 pts / 100p (varies by source) and yet was only used for 40% of Wright's time and 25% of KP's.
Whack.
By far the best performing player pair in 50 most used yet was only 26th in use.
Given last season's lineup and sub-lineup data, if core is kept intact, the rotation should highly concentrate on about 10 lineups involving 8 players. A few others will be needed to provide rest for the main cogs, but just a few. 12-15 lineups is enough for most circumstances and probably significantly better on average than repeating the experience with about 600. Prioritizing among this small set is the task to accomplish following the first third to half of season using a clear test pattern. Unless a lineup is on the short list, it should be rarely used and justified before and / or after each use.
Whack.
By far the best performing player pair in 50 most used yet was only 26th in use.
Given last season's lineup and sub-lineup data, if core is kept intact, the rotation should highly concentrate on about 10 lineups involving 8 players. A few others will be needed to provide rest for the main cogs, but just a few. 12-15 lineups is enough for most circumstances and probably significantly better on average than repeating the experience with about 600. Prioritizing among this small set is the task to accomplish following the first third to half of season using a clear test pattern. Unless a lineup is on the short list, it should be rarely used and justified before and / or after each use.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
3 highest Wizards factor weaknesses were getting to FT line, offensive rebounds and opponent turnovers. Kuzma contributed to each of these weaknesses.
Porzingis is good on 2, pretty weak on offensive rebounding.
Avdija, nothing special on any of these. Neither is Beal.
Plenty of others not part of the answer to these woes.
Porzingis is good on 2, pretty weak on offensive rebounding.
Avdija, nothing special on any of these. Neither is Beal.
Plenty of others not part of the answer to these woes.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Me, I would not want my top basketball executive spending one minute outside of NBA basketball work. I would not want my #2 executive running operations and making most of the NBA decisions. This structure is used some other places (and perhaps was with LAC) but I don't prefer it.
There are obvious advantages to the top executive in terms of reduced toil and separation from immediate responsibility / potential blame. The hope is that it allows greater emphasis on curating the big picture. Maybe. But the big picture comes to life thru the details.
There are obvious advantages to the top executive in terms of reduced toil and separation from immediate responsibility / potential blame. The hope is that it allows greater emphasis on curating the big picture. Maybe. But the big picture comes to life thru the details.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Bye bye Beal.
Getting little for him in the trade, it appears at the moment. Mainly relief from a bad given contract. Tons less than earlier rumored offers not taken.
Getting little for him in the trade, it appears at the moment. Mainly relief from a bad given contract. Tons less than earlier rumored offers not taken.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Wizards probably think 2nd round picks will be rising in value for teams over or near tax aprons. Buyers or for the future Wizards design. Or at least I think so. Not necessarily saying that is a major redeeming argument for this trade but it is a consideration. Current 2nd round picks can probably get 2 or more future 2nd rounders. A long time horizion team can compound value.
Deal probably includes at least 2 pretty good 2023 2nd round picks. To keep or trade.
Trade assessment is heavily contingent on what Wizards can do with freed cap space. What is actually in deal is not all there is, not close.
Tax savings are a consideration, especially if they enhance willingness to tax spend at a later, desirable time.
Maintenance of other tools under the tax aprons are pretty important too.
Suns are willing to get taxed now and lose tools and both for at least a few years. Part of the calculation is belief they are a desirable location and desirable situation. Lots of pressure on Jones and stars to recruit acceptable talent. Specific talents that can create winning playoff lineups with 2 or more stars.
(Nuggets did great with B Bowen and did not get hurt too bad with Braun and Green. Suns may not be able to pay / get a Bowen level player but there could be ways to try, including encouraging words about a second contract.)
Trading Ayton for right package of multiple assets will be crucial.
If it doesn't work to their level of satisification, Suns could try major alteration by 2025.
Big bets and the possibility of reassessment. The game.
What impacts will the Nuggets' title and Suns' moves have on Warriors, Kings and Clippers? Right now and in 6-20 months? The plot gets spicier.
Deal probably includes at least 2 pretty good 2023 2nd round picks. To keep or trade.
Trade assessment is heavily contingent on what Wizards can do with freed cap space. What is actually in deal is not all there is, not close.
Tax savings are a consideration, especially if they enhance willingness to tax spend at a later, desirable time.
Maintenance of other tools under the tax aprons are pretty important too.
Suns are willing to get taxed now and lose tools and both for at least a few years. Part of the calculation is belief they are a desirable location and desirable situation. Lots of pressure on Jones and stars to recruit acceptable talent. Specific talents that can create winning playoff lineups with 2 or more stars.
(Nuggets did great with B Bowen and did not get hurt too bad with Braun and Green. Suns may not be able to pay / get a Bowen level player but there could be ways to try, including encouraging words about a second contract.)
Trading Ayton for right package of multiple assets will be crucial.
If it doesn't work to their level of satisification, Suns could try major alteration by 2025.
Big bets and the possibility of reassessment. The game.
What impacts will the Nuggets' title and Suns' moves have on Warriors, Kings and Clippers? Right now and in 6-20 months? The plot gets spicier.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Wizards re-structuring moving with pace.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
8 new guys for roster so far, if they all stay.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
There may have been a non-player departure.
Update: There WAS at least 2 analytics related departures.
Update: There WAS at least 2 analytics related departures.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
High likelihood of a bottom 4 finish next season. And what about years beyond?
In an earlier poll I put on Twitter almost everyone responded no playoff appearances for at least 4 years.
In an earlier poll I put on Twitter almost everyone responded no playoff appearances for at least 4 years.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Every positive 5 man lineup in 20 most used is gone. 10 of 11 had Porzingis.
Outside chance one positive quad in top 20 used might survive but probably not. Outside chance for 2 positive trios in top 20 but again probably not.
7 bigger minute pairs might survive at most but likely no more than 4 and probably less or zero.
Outside chance one positive quad in top 20 used might survive but probably not. Outside chance for 2 positive trios in top 20 but again probably not.
7 bigger minute pairs might survive at most but likely no more than 4 and probably less or zero.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Absurd deal as announced to Kuzma imo.
There are other insane deals being given elsewhere. Per game stats over more advanced metrics. Grant and Brown, 0 on Darko. Kuzma, -0.7.
Hachimura, -1.6.
There are other insane deals being given elsewhere. Per game stats over more advanced metrics. Grant and Brown, 0 on Darko. Kuzma, -0.7.
Hachimura, -1.6.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
Rationales could be offered for Kuzma as team leader, tank leader, face of franchise for ticket sales or especially as future trade asset.
But other could play those roles... and be a more impactful basketball player.
But other could play those roles... and be a more impactful basketball player.
Re: Wizards' off-season steps
With the shedding of M Morris, I think all of the few bigger minute / positive trios, quads and 5 man lineups caveated above are now gone.