I'd guess that up to 10-11 GMs "should" face serious performance review in next 1-2 years.
What is "enough" to remain / get extended? It will vary some but making playoffs and playing well there is the most obvious criteria. Being close to that may be enough for some. Missing badly will likely turn up the heat.
Highly successful lineup management sure could help the cause. At minimum, many will want or need to be better here than last season.
Haphazard / sub-optimal lineup management is one of the surest ways somebody will have to go. Usually it is the Coach but a bad stretch that lasts long enough can reach GMs.
Poorly targeted drafting can be a major factor in lineup issues.
We'll see pretty quickly who has the biggest problems and whether they do anything meaningful to escape them.
Other 2023-24 commentary
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Monster salaries for Monty Williams and Popovich will probably attract more candidates, beyond current assistants. College Coaches, Ex-players maybe not previously interested in NBA coaching for a few $mil / yr but more interested in 8 figure or near 8 figure possibilities. Candidate "fame" may play a role in hiring.
G league Head Coach jobs probably take on more appeal as a stepping stone for some. Udrih took one.
G league Head Coach jobs probably take on more appeal as a stepping stone for some. Udrih took one.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
I'd guess up to 13 Coaches have things to prove to last more than a year to two.
I'd be going way beyond the norm to try to hang on. Utilizing all kinds of analytics and other strategies.
I'd be going way beyond the norm to try to hang on. Utilizing all kinds of analytics and other strategies.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
West is probably tougher than last season.
I wouldn't say for the East.
I wouldn't say for the East.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Hawks, Raptors and Bulls are very close to falling into bottom 10 of league, next season and probably for a long time.
Might retain play-in seeding next season though because the bottom teams in east are not certain to rise immediately.
Might retain play-in seeding next season though because the bottom teams in east are not certain to rise immediately.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Lots of people encouraging / hyping Ben Simmons. Means almost nothing to me.
Want another big contract? Show consistently big impact in real games.
150 and 190 on 1 year RAPM. About 90 on the 3 yr RAPMs. Neither is up to the star or superstar hype. 3 year might be considered adequate for the salary by some. Not by me. The 1 year RAPMs estimate him as a weak starter.
The 3 year is based in only 2 years of play. Last season was near career low on ts% because ft rate was cut almost in half. TO% has always been high but got more than 30% worse. Defense erases his deficit on offensive BPM and same on LA-RAPM but barely. Both offense and defense were at extremes by BPM last season with RAPM instead estimating mehness on both. Suggesting more weakness off the ball.
He better deliver on the hype about how good he looks / feels in summer,
Want another big contract? Show consistently big impact in real games.
150 and 190 on 1 year RAPM. About 90 on the 3 yr RAPMs. Neither is up to the star or superstar hype. 3 year might be considered adequate for the salary by some. Not by me. The 1 year RAPMs estimate him as a weak starter.
The 3 year is based in only 2 years of play. Last season was near career low on ts% because ft rate was cut almost in half. TO% has always been high but got more than 30% worse. Defense erases his deficit on offensive BPM and same on LA-RAPM but barely. Both offense and defense were at extremes by BPM last season with RAPM instead estimating mehness on both. Suggesting more weakness off the ball.
He better deliver on the hype about how good he looks / feels in summer,
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
"Bulls GM Says Keeping Nikola Vucevic Was 'No. 1 Goal'"
3 years, $60 million.
Almost 33.
Negative on Darko PM,. Negative on 3 of 4 of the 1 and 3 yr RAPMs. One +0.1.
At best a meh accomplishment.
Overall I think the Bulls are stuck in the middle and doomed to decline.
Coach hasn't won a playoff series in 8 years and only did in his first season.
Meh to below average recent drafting.
if not looking pretty good in December, I'd start the trades. And make even more organizational changes by summer.
3 years, $60 million.
Almost 33.
Negative on Darko PM,. Negative on 3 of 4 of the 1 and 3 yr RAPMs. One +0.1.
At best a meh accomplishment.
Overall I think the Bulls are stuck in the middle and doomed to decline.
Coach hasn't won a playoff series in 8 years and only did in his first season.
Meh to below average recent drafting.
if not looking pretty good in December, I'd start the trades. And make even more organizational changes by summer.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Looks like USA Today plans to highlight Kevin Ferrigan's DRE projections this season. They put out an announcement / early tease.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
IF Doncic were to look around at future options, I'd think Nets, Spurs and Jazz should be among leading considerations.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Best NBA players 22 & under? I am not very impressed yet.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Wasn't aware until today that RAPTOR is gone for now. Maybe it returns someday; but If it does, Nate Silver may put it behind a paywall.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
The chain of multiple trades is a pretty good approach for getting max value. Blazers played it well so far. Wonder how much was known or speculated before the first trade.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Hard to imagine Knicks joining first tier of East.
Off-season didn't do much.
One possibility would be very results driven changes in composition and frequency of Brunson lineups. Less with Randle and Barrett. More to way more with Quickley, Grimes, Robinson. Or at least less with Barrett against high number of starters.
Off-season didn't do much.
One possibility would be very results driven changes in composition and frequency of Brunson lineups. Less with Randle and Barrett. More to way more with Quickley, Grimes, Robinson. Or at least less with Barrett against high number of starters.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
Pace is complicated, offense and defense. Is it important? Should it be a target?
Questions worth considering.
Last season, average pace was 99.1. Fwiw 7 of the 10 total teams that had 45+ wins were 98.5 pace and under. 2 between 98.5 and 100.5. Just one over 100.5.
Play fast? Better be right for that style. Only 1 of 9 that played at / over 100.5 won 45+. Compared to 7 of 12 at 98.5 or under pace winning that many. Making it 527% as likely to win 45+ playing slower compared to relatively very fast.
Play fast? Better be really really right for that style.
Thunder were top 5 on pace last season and likely to be around that again, if not higher. Right for them? How right?
This decision was probably made years ago. Is it still under review? I doubt it right now. Would take a lot of shortfall to become an active issue.
Last 5 Champs were on average very close to league average on pace (slightly higher) in regular season. 1 fast, 3 average, 1 slow.
Does it really matter? Should it be a target? Have you heard any prominent media discuss it? When / what said? I don't recall anything significant.
Playoffs matter more and behavior may or may not stay exactly the same. More to check.
Questions worth considering.
Last season, average pace was 99.1. Fwiw 7 of the 10 total teams that had 45+ wins were 98.5 pace and under. 2 between 98.5 and 100.5. Just one over 100.5.
Play fast? Better be right for that style. Only 1 of 9 that played at / over 100.5 won 45+. Compared to 7 of 12 at 98.5 or under pace winning that many. Making it 527% as likely to win 45+ playing slower compared to relatively very fast.
Play fast? Better be really really right for that style.
Thunder were top 5 on pace last season and likely to be around that again, if not higher. Right for them? How right?
This decision was probably made years ago. Is it still under review? I doubt it right now. Would take a lot of shortfall to become an active issue.
Last 5 Champs were on average very close to league average on pace (slightly higher) in regular season. 1 fast, 3 average, 1 slow.
Does it really matter? Should it be a target? Have you heard any prominent media discuss it? When / what said? I don't recall anything significant.
Playoffs matter more and behavior may or may not stay exactly the same. More to check.
Re: Other 2023-24 commentary
All of last 5 playoffs had an average well slower than regular season.
Even within that context, only 6 of 20 conference finalists played above that slower average playoff pace.
Play fast? You're bucking the playoff trend of the most successful too.
Play fast? Not a wise choice based on overall performance data. Based primarily on aesthetics? I'd hope not but probably a lot about that.
One last time: If you play fast, you'd better really really be suited for it.
Only 2 of last 5 title winners had an average playoff pace above playoff average. Only 1 conference finalist / title winner above 100 pace (2021 Bucks) and no one else anywhere close. To contend or win title, almost everyone had to do it at a slower than their regular season pace and that pace is very slow compared to regular season average.
Even within that context, only 6 of 20 conference finalists played above that slower average playoff pace.
Play fast? You're bucking the playoff trend of the most successful too.
Play fast? Not a wise choice based on overall performance data. Based primarily on aesthetics? I'd hope not but probably a lot about that.
One last time: If you play fast, you'd better really really be suited for it.
Only 2 of last 5 title winners had an average playoff pace above playoff average. Only 1 conference finalist / title winner above 100 pace (2021 Bucks) and no one else anywhere close. To contend or win title, almost everyone had to do it at a slower than their regular season pace and that pace is very slow compared to regular season average.