On HOF and greatest lists

[Crow]

A thread

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1704 ... 60831?s=20

[Mike G]

Curious but not enough to do X.

[Crow]

This is most of it (not in exact time order and with most tags stripped off):


Anchorage Man
@SethPartnow
·
Sep 21
This is the way.
Quote
Automatic
@automaticnba
·
Sep 21
Andre Iguodala thinks the hall of fame should have tiers and doesn't think he is a hall of famer.

Do you agree?

(via @OldManAndThree)


basketballstrategy
@bballstrategy
It is not the way.

I don't care about HOF, but I am not about one way official HOF tiers. You can have unofficial ones by amount of space and where fans go and what fans think.

But HOF voters are not to be trusted with tiers. Or 100% right even on one standard inductions.


#SoWizards the Podcast
@so_wizards
·
Sep 22
This. I mean, can we even trust voters on a straight yes/no vote?

basketballstrategy

Sep 22
Vern Mikkelsen, Larry Foust Bobby Wanzer in. Jim Pollard in with only 7 not that special seasons (very low ws/48 of .093). C Braun?

Will Shawn Marion make it?
Amar'e Stoudemire? Rondo? A Hardaway? Laimbeer, Marques Johnson? Haven't yet.

D Green, K Thompson, B Griffin, DeRozan

Do those last 4 deserve it? Will they get it? unclear what HOF voters will do.

How many tiers? 3? 3rd tier will be offended and some of tier 2. Drop some players.

Anybody under 75 or 85 ever heard of the first 5 HOF guys I mentioned?


Guy Rogers in with a ws/48 of just .056.

Shawn Kemp, Jermaine O'Neal, Walter Davis, Kevin Johnson, Horace Grant, Sam Cassell, Rasheed Wallace? "nah", not good enough. Not as good as Guy Rogers.

Tiering would expose major mistakes in induction.

Buck Williams or Jim Pollard?

With responsible tiering imo Pete Maravich probably belongs in lowest or next lowest tier.

Unofficial HOF tiers? If you want. I'd probably recommend divided into two groups: pre 1976 (or 1980) and afte.

I don't know the exact right amount of first quarter century of players to honor. The Naismith HOF may have a bit too many in retrospect.

But the bigger issue imo is too few modern players. And the bigger / better solution is expanding the NBA's own greatest list.

75 greatest at 75 years is too few imo. It "should" already be 100 or 125. I'd go to 100 by 2031, 125 by 2036 or no later than 2041 and probably 150 by 2046.

Tiering probably should be by eras. NBA has a top 75 tier and Naismith HOF has about 55 other NBAs I think. Sort of Tier 1 and Tier 2. Another tier would be created within Tier 1 when letting in 50-75 more by 2041.

If you decide the Hall of Fame should be top 3%, it should already be 150 NBA players. I'd get to top 200 way way before 200 years of NBA play. Probably by 125 years.

There were squabbles with NBA top 50 and top 75 and especially when anyone names a top 5 or 10.

I am not really into the squabble about the past. Squabble about today if you want. That is enough.

No sport HOF or any HOF uses multiple tiers to my knowledge.


Took them 2 decades to be shamed into inducting Artis Gilmore.

Naismith HOF doesn't deserve more responsibility, more legitimacy or prestige to decide tiers.


There is no way you'd get anything close to agreement on all-time top 10 or top 25. It is extremely unlikely anyone could fairly judge players from first 25 years to those from last 25.

You hear at least 4 or 5 common answers of who is number 1 and there will never be agreement on that.

Jokic has best career BPM of all-time and Kobe Bryant is 31st. Few voters are likely to vote near to these marks.

If Iguodala named his top 10, I would not be surprised if many people would disagree with 3 or more. Same with almost anybody.

If you had tiers stated at induction, some players might refuse induction or actively challenge it publicly.

It is a retirement gift and a brotherhood. Don't "need" tiers. That is an extracurricular activity for a modest number of fans.

[Mike G]

HOF top tier has been around, called "first ballot HOF". Reggie Miller was consensus HOF but they decided it should be 2nd year of eligibility.

Guy Rodgers may be in due to one old APBR Yahoo-group mainstay, Bijan Bayne, who promoted ceaselessly. Largely based on ballhandling in the modern sense.
I advocated for Artis Gilmore, whose NBA-only career dwarfed most others. In 5 ABA years, he was quicker.

At one point, I made a semi-cynical comment that back in the day, if you played 10 years, you would be a candidate.
Some other old-timer declared without evidence that a college bench warmer in the 60s would be an NBA starter today. Because there are more teams now, and talent could not have increased, so the league is surely diluted now.

Jokic has "career" BPM of 9.4 thru age 27. Also ws/48 of .247 and PER 27.7
Jordan thru age 34 (Bulls career) was 10.2, .277, 29.1
LeBron thru age 28 was 9.3, .241, 27.6 -- nearly identical to Joker -- in regular seasons.

[Mike G]

It turns out that the great players' career averages tend to top out around age 30. Jokic and Giannis are still pushing their career averages up; Durant and Curry are hardly diminishing at 34.

Code: Select all

BPM   player  age     WS/48  player  age      PER   player age
11.0  Jordan  27      .293   Kareem  25      30.2   Jordan  27
9.4   Jokic   27      .277   Jordan  33      28.4   Shaq    30
9.3   LeBron  29      .261  Robinson 32      27.8  Robinson 32
8.7  Robinson 32      .251   Paul    32      27.8   LeBron  29
8.4 * Kareem  30      .247   Jokic   27      27.7   Jokic   27
8.1   Paul    31      .243   LeBron  29      27.4   Kareem  25
7.6   Magic   31      .232   Shaq    30      27.4   Davis   26
7.4   Bird    31      .227   Harden  30      26.6   Wade    30
7.3  Stockton 32      .227   Duncan  28      25.7   Paul    31
7.3   Wade    30      .226   Magic   31      25.3   Duncan  28
7.0   Harden  30      .226  Barkley  29      25.3  Barkley  29
6.9   Durant  29      .222   Kawhi   29      25.3   Durant  29
6.9   Kawhi   29      .221  Nowitzki 29      24.9  Giannis  28
6.8  Barkley  29      .219   Durant  29      24.8   Harden  30
6.6   Curry   32      .219   Davis   26      24.5  Olajuwon 33
6.5   Shaq    30      .217   Bird    31      24.4   Malone  37
6.4  Garnett  31      .212   Malone  37      24.4  McGrady  24
6.4  McGrady  25      .210  Stockton 38      24.3  Olajuwon 31
6.3   Davis   26      .208   Curry   29      24.2   Magic   31
6.3   Duncan  28      .205   Wade    30      24.2   Bird    31

Lists are from alltime leaders in BPM; and in Win Shares; only looking at careers mostly or entirely since 1974.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... areer.html
* - Kareem's career BPM excludes seasons before 1974, when his WS/48 were about .040 higher.
Malone = Karl

[Crow]

Did not know of Bijan Bayne or such discussions or that specific advocacy. Looked briefly at things written by or about him. There was a period before I became aware of APBR, though I got here relatively early. I barely know a little of the History wing. I only rarely looked at Ring of Honor stuff.


Yeah, peaks and timing of them and tail trends and lengths all play a part of the view / opinions.

[Mike G]

Ring of Honor?

[Crow]

It was the APBRmetrics re-do of HOF voting by year, done in a separate sub-forum of the previous version of this forum, mostly by a few.

[Mike G]

According to b-r.com, probabilities that some players should be elected to the Hall of Fame:

Code: Select all

prob.   current         prob.   retired
1.00   LeBron James     1.00   Dwight Howard
1.00   Kevin Durant     .984   Carmelo Anthony
1.00   Chris Paul       .946   Vince Carter
1.00   Dwyane Wade      .942   Larry Foust
1.00   Steph Curry      .934   Pau Gasol
1.00   James Harden     .844  Chauncey Billups
1.00 Russell Westbrook  .756   Shawn Marion
.986   Anthony Davis    .729  Amar'e Stoudemire
.964   Damian Lillard   .509  LaMarcus Aldridge
.949   Giannis A.       .506   Joe Johnson
.936   Paul George      .385   Shawn Kemp
.935   Kyrie Irving     .324   John Wall
.864   Nikola Jokic     .318   Jermaine O'Neal
.857   Kyle Lowry       .311   Walter Davis
.777   Kawhi Leonard    .287   Penny Hardaway
.768   Draymond Green   .261   Bill Laimbeer
.735   Kevin Love       .252   Marques Johnson
.730   Jimmy Butler     .218   Gene Shue
.702   Klay Thompson    .217   Gilbert Arenas
.606   Rajon Rondo      .191   Kevin Johnson
.548   Blake Griffin    .183   Mark Price
.424   DeMar DeRozan    .177   Norm Nixon
.216   Rudy Gobert      .156   Brad Daugherty
.151   Kemba Walker     .152   Horace Grant
.127   Andre Iguodala   .127   Paul Silas
.122   Al Horford       .126   M.R. Richardson
.108   Karl-A Towns     .116   Willie Naulls
.105   Derrick Rose     .113   Gus Williams

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... _prob.html
They didn't get asterisks by the most recent inductees yet; some of these are in, I believe.

[Crow]

.75 guys probably make it. .5 probably won't. .6 might in some cases.

[Mike G]

From a list of top 40 career playoff minutes; 20 who were their teams' Main Man for a significant part of their careers.
Showing playoff series wins and losses; and game W and L. Ranked by PO games won.

Code: Select all

goat     sW  sL    gW  gL    sW%    gW%
LeBron   41  12   182 100   .774   .645
Duncan   35  13   157  94   .729   .625
Kareem   37  12   154  83   .755   .650
Kobe     33  10   135  85   .767   .614
Shaq     32  13   129  87   .711   .597

Magic    32   8   128  62   .800   .674
Jordan   30   7   119  60   .811   .665
Russell  27   2   107  58   .931   .648
Wade     22  10   105  72   .688   .593
Durant   22  10   101  65   .688   .608

goat     sW  sL    gW  gL    sW%    gW%
Curry    23   5    99  48   .821   .673
Bird     23   9    99  65   .719   .604
Malone   19  19    98  95   .500   .508
Wilt     18  11    88  72   .621   .550
West     16  12    87  66   .571   .569

Harden   15  14    85  75   .517   .531
Olajuwon 16  13    76  69   .552   .524
Paul     12  15    76  73   .444   .510
Drexler  16  14    74  71   .533   .510
Nowitzki 13  14    69  76   .481   .476

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_p.html
Among the top 20 in minutes but never The Man: Pippen, Parker, DJ, Havlicek, Fisher, Horry, Stockton.

Steph Curry trails only Bill Russell in series Win%. Essentially tied with Magic for game W%
Chris Paul alone at the bottom in series W%.

[DarkStar48]

From a list of top 40 career playoff minutes; 20 who were their teams' Main Man for a significant part of their careers.
Showing playoff series wins and losses; and game W and L. Ranked by PO games won.

Code: Select all

goat     sW  sL    gW  gL    sW%    gW%
LeBron   41  12   182 100   .774   .645
Duncan   35  13   157  94   .729   .625
Kareem   37  12   154  83   .755   .650
Kobe     33  10   135  85   .767   .614
Shaq     32  13   129  87   .711   .597

Magic    32   8   128  62   .800   .674
Jordan   30   7   119  60   .811   .665
Russell  27   2   107  58   .931   .648
Wade     22  10   105  72   .688   .593
Durant   22  10   101  65   .688   .608

goat     sW  sL    gW  gL    sW%    gW%
Curry    23   5    99  48   .821   .673
Bird     23   9    99  65   .719   .604
Malone   19  19    98  95   .500   .508
Wilt     18  11    88  72   .621   .550
West     16  12    87  66   .571   .569

Harden   15  14    85  75   .517   .531
Olajuwon 16  13    76  69   .552   .524
Paul     12  15    76  73   .444   .510
Drexler  16  14    74  71   .533   .510
Nowitzki 13  14    69  76   .481   .476

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_p.html
Among the top 20 in minutes but never The Man: Pippen, Parker, DJ, Havlicek, Fisher, Horry, Stockton.

Steph Curry trails only Bill Russell in series Win%. Essentially tied with Magic for game W%
Chris Paul alone at the bottom in series W%.

It would be interesting to analyze how many of the Top 40 in career playoff minutes were on the same team. How often were some of the most prominent playoff performers on the same team?

Also, for something like this, I prefer looking at Win Shares (WS) and WS/48, rather raw Wins/Losses or W%.

[Mike G]

Well that just takes one click --
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_p.html
-- and from there any other click.

What I did was look up each player and summarize.
A few years ago, I determined that the Bulls from 1991-98 had a very similar series W-L to what the Celtics had in Russell's career (1957-69). And so, 6 NBA titles in the '90s looks roughly as good as 11 in the '50s-60s; in terms of how many other teams they had to beat.

Wanting to get LeBron et al in there, I did it more comprehensively this time.
Of course this includes off-peak performances, too. Jordan started out 0-3 in series.