So the Thunder are "expected" to improve based on average results for average year to year aging?
But they are currently falling short of that... maybe because they got 0.1 years younger instead of average aging?
2023-24 team win projection contest
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Age and wins with only a modest correlation, you indicate.
Wonder about size of correlations for age & salary, age & playoff advancement, salary & playoff advancement, age & wins / salary...
Wonder about size of correlations for age & salary, age & playoff advancement, salary & playoff advancement, age & wins / salary...
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Because everyone but Dort (and the rookies) has fallen off precipitously from last year.
Code: Select all
OKC Thunder age PER ws/48 BPM mpg
Jal. Williams 21 15.6 14.2 .119 .072 0.3 -3.0 28 33
Luguentz Dort 23 11.3 17.0 .062 .159 -3.0 1.2 28 30
Chet Holmgren 21 24.3 .239 6.3 29
Josh Giddey 20 17.1 10.6 .081 -.064 1.2 -6.1 29 29
Shai G-A 24 27.2 23.9 .226 .131 7.3 3.2 29 29
Cason Wallace 20 14.0 .153 -0.6 23
Isaiah Joe 23 14.5 11.9 .131 .047 0.9 -2.6 17 20
Ousmane Dieng 19 9.3 9.3 .038 .024 -3.6 -4.0 7 13
Aaron Wiggins 24 12.2 9.9 .097 .042 -2.1 -5.3 16 11
Olivier Sarr 23 11.5 11.7 .094 .134 -4.9 -2.2 1 7
OKC Thunder age PER ws/48 BPM mpg
A Pokusevski 21 13.4 -13.5 .066 -.428 0.0 -26.9 9 3
Jayl Williams 20 11.2 13.6 .099 .068 -1.7 -1.7 11 3
Dāvis Bertāns 30 11.9 15.4 .090 .227 -1.2 -0.4 6 2
Tre Mann 21 10.0 38.7 .021 .355 -3.9 17.5 14 2
Lindy Waters 25 11.8 -9.2 .101 -.296 0.1 -18.9 6 1
Kenr Williams 28 14.4 .133 0.5 15 0
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
The actual stats explain the 2nd column, not the fourth.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
avgA 4.94 6.25 .35 DRKO 4.10 5.13 .48
ncs. 5.07 6.30 .32 LEBR 4.46 5.70 .34
eWin 5.14 6.45 .13 KPel 4.76 6.39 .24
dtka 5.17 6.62 .29 EBPI 4.92 6.32 .32
trzu 5.18 6.45 .31 4141 5.38 6.48
Crow 5.43 6.73 .29 vegas 6.01 7.03 .30
vzro 5.95 7.57 .28 EExp 6.43 7.52 .29
medi 6.08 7.50 .37 ChKl 6.50 8.12 .22
DQin 6.22 7.39 .28 NuFi 6.87 8.78 .21
emin 6.43 7.72 .37 IanL 7.20 8.34 .27Those on the right avg 5.69 / 7.04; on the left 5.63 / 6.97
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
At this point, almost everyone in "contest" has an estimated error less than ESPN "expert" group, except for one tie.
APBRmetrics average doing well, better than any single part.
Darko and LeBron doing very well.
( I cite Darko pretty frequently. Might "should" use it exclusively for quick takes.)
APBRmetrics average doing well, better than any single part.
Darko and LeBron doing very well.
( I cite Darko pretty frequently. Might "should" use it exclusively for quick takes.)
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Extreme overnight recalibration . East v West went 4-4, and projections now avg East 41.7 - 40.3 West.
The avg's of each side are now equal.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.56 5.68 .46 DRKO 4.09 4.81 .56
trzu 4.85 5.72 .45 LEBR 4.52 5.46 .42
avgA 4.88 5.74 .45 KPel 4.57 5.73 .39
ncs. 4.99 5.79 .43 EBPI 5.26 5.90 .41
Crow 5.00 6.23 .39 vegas 5.57 6.55 .39
medi 5.39 6.68 .49 4141 5.58 6.91
eWin 5.39 6.65 .15 ChKl 5.74 7.40 .34
vzro 5.68 6.72 .42 EExp 5.96 7.12 .37
emin 6.16 7.47 .41 IanL 6.29 7.97 .33
DQin 6.36 7.59 .27 NuFi 6.34 8.42 .27
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
70% in contest ahead of Vegas.
2nd place is pretty contested.
2nd place is pretty contested.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
No games last night.
DARKO currently leads our Average entry by .79 in mean avg error. Here's a team by team breakdown:
Projection by b-r.com is closer to DARKO's guess for teams on the left; closer to 'our' collective guesses on the right.
DARKO had the lowest guess on Mem, Mia, and (esp.) Mil, all of which look pretty good right now. Also highest on Tor.
For all but 3 * teams * DARKO and AvgA are on the same side -- both high or both low -- of the current projection. For those 3, any change will affect the lead.
UPDATE Nov. 9 -- 28 of 30 teams in action.Both 'sides' still tied, though everyone is worse by an avg of .50
DARKO currently leads our Average entry by .79 in mean avg error. Here's a team by team breakdown:
Code: Select all
diff tm proj DRKO avgA diff tm proj avgA DRKO
5.9 Mil 42.8 44.4 50.3 -3.8 OKC 42.8 40.3 36.5
4.4 NOP 38.7 40.8 45.2 -3.2 Tor * 41.8 40.4 46.4
4.0 Hou 38.7 35.9 31.9 -2.6 GSW 45.5 45.8 48.4
3.1 Sac 33.9 39.4 42.5 -1.8 Den 53.6 50.7 48.9
2.9 Cle 40.3 46.4 49.3 -1.3 Cha 35.6 32.3 31.0
2.7 LAL 38.5 40.5 43.2 -1.1 Ind 42.3 35.0 33.9
2.7 Min 53.1 48.7 46.0 -0.9 Chi 35.1 37.7 38.6
2.5 Mem 30.1 42.2 44.7 -0.8 Bos 56.1 56.5 57.3
2.1 Was 32.6 31.9 29.8 -0.5 Dal 47.7 41.0 40.5
1.9 Det 32.7 28.0 26.1 -0.2 LAC 45.0 42.6 42.4
1.9 Phl 51.9 49.8 47.9 -0.0 NYK 45.4 47.2 47.2
1.3 Brk * 41.3 41.4 39.9
1.2 Por 34.9 31.3 30.1
1.1 Atl 47.0 43.1 42.0
1.0 Uta 31.4 36.4 37.4
0.7 Mia 38.9 41.7 42.4
0.4 Orl 42.4 36.7 36.3
0.1 SAS * 31.0 33.2 28.7
0.0 Phx 39.1 46.9 46.9
DARKO had the lowest guess on Mem, Mia, and (esp.) Mil, all of which look pretty good right now. Also highest on Tor.
For all but 3 * teams * DARKO and AvgA are on the same side -- both high or both low -- of the current projection. For those 3, any change will affect the lead.
UPDATE Nov. 9 -- 28 of 30 teams in action.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.99 6.34 .40 DRKO 4.41 5.29 .54
ncs. 5.26 6.44 .38 LEBR 5.06 6.03 .40
trzu 5.27 6.45 .38 KPel 5.24 6.39 .35
avgA 5.36 6.47 .38 EBPI 5.83 6.67 .34
Crow 5.44 6.75 .36 ChKl 6.07 7.93 .29
medi 5.89 6.98 .46 vegas 6.13 7.37 .31
vzro 6.13 7.11 .39 4141 6.24 7.60
eWin 6.35 7.59 .09 EExp 6.45 7.88 .29
emin 6.83 8.05 .35 IanL 6.67 8.50 .28
DQin 6.86 8.57 .18 NuFi 7.22 9.24 .19
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Yeah it was a rough night apparently.
I went down .44. Pelton, .67. Ncs just .27.
Several higher remain within reach. Conceivably in a night. More possible in a week. With 5 months to go.
I went down .44. Pelton, .67. Ncs just .27.
Several higher remain within reach. Conceivably in a night. More possible in a week. With 5 months to go.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
How does this read?
b-r is the daily projection; other numbers are set.
Code: Select all
Atl Bos Brk Cha Chi Cle Det Ind
b-r 47 me 60 nc 45 em 36 DQ 42 me 53 eW 35 b-r 44
DQ 46 vz 59 b-r 42 eW 36 nc 40 DQ 51 b-r 32 eW 39
Cr 44 nc 57 Cr 42 vz 33 vz 39 dt 50 nc 28 dt 38
vz 43 em 57 vz 41 nc 33 Cr 39 tz 49 tz 28 tz 37
dt 43 Cr 57 dt 40 dt 33 eW 39 vz 49 Cr 27 Cr 35
nc 42 b-r 56 me 40 b-r 33 tz 37 em 49 dt 26 vz 34
tz 42 DQ 56 tz 40 tz 31 dt 36 Cr 49 DQ 25 nc 34
em 40 dt 56 em 39 Cr 31 me 36 nc 48 me 24 em 33
me 39 tz 55 DQ 38 DQ 30 b-r 34 eW 44 vz 22 me 33
eW 39 eW 52 eW 36 me 27 em 32 b-r 40 em 21 DQ 32
Mia Mil NYK Orl Phl Tor Was
DQ 45 em 56 vz 56 me 41 b-r 55 b-r 44 b-r 35
tz 44 eW 53 me 51 b-r 41 DQ 54 dt 42 nc 34
nc 43 vz 52 nc 48 eW 40 vz 52 Cr 42 DQ 34
vz 43 DQ 51 tz 47 DQ 40 nc 51 DQ 42 eW 33
dt 42 dt 50 dt 47 em 37 me 50 vz 41 vz 33
Cr 42 me 49 Cr 46 tz 37 tz 48 nc 41 Cr 31
eW 42 tz 48 b-r 46 dt 34 em 48 eW 40 tz 28
em 41 nc 47 DQ 45 Cr 33 dt 46 tz 40 dt 28
me 41 Cr 47 em 44 nc 33 Cr 44 em 38 me 28
b-r 39 b-r 43 eW 42 vz 33 eW 38 me 38 em 20
Dal Den GSW Hou LAC LAL Mem Min
b-r 46 em 60 em 52 b-r 43 DQ 45 DQ 52 dt 47 b-r 55
dt 44 me 54 nc 50 me 39 eW 44 eW 45 tz 46 em 53
nc 43 b-r 54 dt 48 eW 36 me 44 tz 44 Cr 45 me 48
DQ 42 Cr 53 vz 47 dt 34 Cr 43 me 43 eW 45 Cr 48
tz 41 tz 51 b-r 47 Cr 32 vz 43 em 43 DQ 45 dt 47
me 41 vz 49 tz 46 tz 31 b-r 43 nc 42 em 44 nc 47
eW 40 DQ 48 Cr 46 vz 31 dt 42 dt 41 me 44 vz 46
vz 40 dt 48 me 45 nc 31 tz 41 Cr 40 nc 43 tz 46
em 39 nc 48 eW 41 em 29 nc 41 vz 39 vz 43 DQ 41
Cr 39 eW 45 DQ 37 DQ 25 em 40 b-r 34 b-r 29 eW 39
NOP OKC Phx Por Sac SAS Uta
DQ 48 me 48 dt 49 eW 39 em 49 em 36 DQ 41
em 48 b-r 44 DQ 48 b-r 34 Cr 47 eW 35 Cr 40
Cr 46 tz 44 tz 48 nc 33 me 45 b-r 30 eW 39
eW 45 eW 44 me 48 dt 32 vz 43 nc 30 vz 39
vz 45 dt 41 vz 47 tz 31 nc 41 dt 28 nc 38
tz 45 em 41 Cr 46 Cr 29 eW 41 tz 28 dt 37
dt 44 Cr 40 eW 46 DQ 29 tz 41 DQ 27 tz 37
me 43 vz 37 nc 45 vz 28 DQ 39 Cr 27 me 34
nc 43 DQ 35 em 45 em 28 dt 37 me 24 em 32
b-r 38 nc 33 b-r 39 me 21 b-r 35 vz 24 b-r 30
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Looks good, easy to follow. Could also take out the b-r value and simply sort them by the absolute value of the difference between the entrant's prediction and the b-r value.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Well, this way it's clear whether you wish, for example, the Knicks would do better (you do) or worse (not).
Last year I threw Pelton in with 'our' guesses, because he was the one to beat for quite a while. I could still do that with DARKO.
Sometimes a team's success will help your avg error but not help you with regard to catching the leader.
OK, best to worst, + drko:DARKO has only a couple of best guesses for teams, but nowhere is he worst; very few are worse than avg.
His biggest error is also the best guess for Memphis.
Last year I threw Pelton in with 'our' guesses, because he was the one to beat for quite a while. I could still do that with DARKO.
Sometimes a team's success will help your avg error but not help you with regard to catching the leader.
OK, best to worst, + drko:
Code: Select all
tm DKO dtk trz ncs Cro med vzr eW emi DQ
Atl 4 4 6 5 3 8 4 8 7 2
Bos 1 0 2 1 1 4 2 5 1 0
Brk 1 2 3 3 0 2 1 7 3 5
Cha 2 0 2 0 2 6 1 3 3 3
Chi 4 2 3 6 5 2 5 5 2 7
Cle 7 10 10 9 9 14 10 5 9 12
Det 4 6 5 4 5 8 11 3 11 7
Ind 10 6 7 10 9 11 10 5 11 12
tm DKO dtk trz ncs Cro med vzr eW emi DQ
Mia 3 3 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 6
Mil 2 7 5 5 4 6 10 10 13 8
NYK 1 1 2 2 0 5 10 4 2 1
Orl 4 7 4 8 8 0 8 1 4 2
Phl 5 9 7 4 11 5 3 17 7 1
Tor 2 2 4 4 2 6 3 4 6 3
Was 3 7 7 1 4 8 2 2 15 2
tm DKO dtk trz ncs Cro med vzr eW emi DQ
Dal 5 2 4 3 7 4 6 5 7 4
Den 5 6 3 6 1 1 5 8 6 6
GSW 2 1 1 3 1 2 0 6 5 10
Hou 7 9 12 13 11 4 13 7 14 18
LAC 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 1 3 3
LAL 7 8 10 9 7 10 6 11 10 18
Mem 13 18 17 14 16 15 14 16 15 16
Min 6 8 9 8 7 7 9 16 2 14
tm DKO dtk trz ncs Cro med vzr eW emi DQ
NOP 3 6 7 5 8 6 7 7 10 10
OKC 8 3 1 11 4 3 7 1 3 10
Phx 8 10 9 6 7 9 8 7 6 9
Por 3 2 2 1 5 13 6 6 6 5
Sac 4 2 5 6 12 10 8 6 14 4
SAS 4 2 2 0 3 6 6 5 6 2
Uta 7 8 7 9 11 4 10 10 3 12
His biggest error is also the best guess for Memphis.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Thanks for those tables. Was wanting but didn't want to rush.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
I am tied with Darko for variances from BRef current projection by 2 or less but have 5 more of 7 or greater.