2024 Playoffs overview

[Mike G]

John Hollinger picks, higher seed on the left:

Code: Select all

OKC 4-1 NOP    OKC 4-3 Dal
Den 4-1 LAL    Den 4-2 Phx
Min 2-4 Phx    
LAC 3-4 Dal    OKC 2-4 Den

Bos 4-0 Mia    Bos 4-1 Cle
NYK 4-2 Phl    NYK 4-2 Mil
Mil 4-3 Ind
Cle 4-2 Orl    Bos 4-2 NYK

.      Bos 4-3 Den

https://theathletic.com/5427893/2024/04 ... hollinger/

[Mike G]

Leaders thru 2 games, in eWins:

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.56   Nikola Jokić   Den   41  .678   31.0  15.2   6.0   1.8   1.6   .0   3.32
.52   Luka Dončić    Dal   44  .551   27.5   7.3   6.0    .8   3.2   .4   2.83
.48   Pascal Siakam  Ind   39  .670   37.4  10.5   2.8    .5    .5   .9   2.98
.48   James Harden   LAC   41  .649   25.7   3.7   6.8    .5   1.0  1.4   2.82
.44   Jarrett Allen  Cle   37  .593   20.6  18.4   2.6   2.0   1.0  1.5   2.86

.43   Shai G-A       OKC   37  .629   37.9   4.6   4.0   1.2   2.6   .0   2.77
.42   Anthony Davis  LAL   42  .660   29.8  10.8   2.4    .4   2.7  2.2   2.38
.41   Kyrie Irving   Dal   41  .635   26.5   5.5   3.1   2.2   2.0   .0   2.45
.40 Donovan Mitchell Cle   36  .552   35.8   5.0   3.7   2.0   3.7   .5   2.65
.37   Chet Holmgren  OKC   31  .661   30.4  11.3   1.6    .7   2.5  4.2   2.93

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.36   Joel Embiid    Phl   38  .500   27.7   8.1   4.8    .9   2.0   .5   2.29
.36   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   44  .654   29.6   4.3   4.9    .0   3.0   .8   1.95
.35   LeBron James   LAL   40  .646   26.7   6.4   7.2   1.4   4.3  1.4   2.14
.34  Anthony Edwards Min   37  .585   27.9   7.6   6.6   2.5   4.8   .5   2.22
.34  Damian Lillard  Mil   39  .651   34.5   4.8   3.0    .5   2.2   .0   2.09

.30   Rudy Gobert    Min   39  .762   20.5  13.1   1.8   1.4   1.0   .5   1.86
.29   Josh Hart      NYK   45  .614   18.1  11.6   1.8   1.2   1.8   .8   1.56
.29   Jayson Tatum   Bos   41  .554   23.0   9.0   5.1    .8   2.9   .4   1.68
.27   Ivica Zubac    LAC   34  .516   17.7  15.0    .5   1.1   1.9   .6   1.96
.27  Jalen Williams  OKC   38  .548   22.9   6.1   4.9   1.8   3.1   .0   1.73

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.27   Jaylen Brown   Bos   36  .625   27.3   9.1   1.8    .5   2.2  1.0   1.79
.26   Paul George    LAC   37  .579   23.7   4.0   3.3   1.0   2.3   .5   1.72
.26  Jo Valančiūnas  NOP   26  .604   23.6  19.8   2.1    .5   3.6   .0   2.41
.26  Michael Porter  Den   38  .732   20.7   8.6    .4   1.4    .0  1.0   1.63
.25   Evan Mobley    Cle   34  .541   21.9   9.5   1.7    .5   2.2  2.1   1.76

All the usual suspects and no real upstarts.
#26-40: Myles Turner, Towns, Jamal Murray, Adebayo, Middleton, Durant, Hartenstein, Brunson, F Wagner, McDaniels, Herro, Garland, Alexander-Walker, B Lopez, Banchero

Some slow starters, must-do-betters:

Code: Select all

eWin    per36 rates   tm   mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.11   Norman Powell  LAC   28  .344   4.7   3.0    .6   .6   1.4   .0   -.95
-.07   Amir Coffey    LAC   19  .500   6.8   2.8    .9   .0   2.2   .0   -.93
-.07   Dante Exum     Dal   11  .250   2.8   3.8    .0   .0   3.0  1.4  -1.48
-.07   Derrick Jones  Dal   25  .417   5.8   5.5    .0   .0   1.6  2.2   -.65
-.07  Daniel Gafford  Dal   12  .188   2.7   1.4   1.5   .0   1.7  1.5  -1.35

-.07   Rui Hachimura  LAL   35  .385   3.7   4.2    .4   .0    .5   .0   -.46
-.06   Jose Alvarado  NOP   18  .208   2.7   1.0   2.1   .7   1.9   .0   -.76
-.05   Buddy Hield    Phl   13  .200   1.4   1.2   1.1   .0   1.4   .0  -1.01
-.05   Georges Niang  Cle   19  .192   2.9   2.6   1.8   .9    .9   .9   -.62
-.04   Maxi Kleber    Dal   27  .450   4.7   5.1   2.4   .0   1.4  1.2   -.39

eWin    per36 rates   tm   mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.04   Gabe Vincent   LAL   12  .000    .0   2.7   2.1  1.4   2.9   .0   -.88
-.04   Nicolas Batum  Phl   29  .500   4.6   4.0   1.0   .0    .6   .6   -.30
-.03   Cole Anthony   Orl   14  .154   2.3   6.6    .0  1.2   1.2   .0   -.53
-.03  Reggie Jackson  Den    9  .167   3.0   1.8   4.1   .0   4.0   .0   -.82
-.03  Markelle Fultz  Orl   10  .100    .7   4.7   1.6   .0    .0   .0   -.64

-.02   Sp Dinwiddie   LAL   12  .000    .0   2.7   2.1  2.8   1.4   .0   -.50
-.01   A.J. Green     Mil   11  .333   5.8   4.9   1.3   .0   1.9   .0   -.27
-.01   Ha Highsmith   Mia   26  .450   5.1   4.5   1.6   .7    .8   .0   -.09
-.01  Kentavious C-P  Den   36  .474   8.0   1.6   1.6  1.5   1.2   .5   -.06
-.01  Wendell Carter  Orl   17  .375   8.1   6.6   2.9   .0   2.1   .0   -.09

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2024.html
Gafford has had, by all measures, his 2 worst games of the season.

[Crow]

Paul George, 22nd. Lower rebounding than all but 1 in front of him. Lower assists than 60% ahead of him. Not fully what that guy is supposed to be. Maybe you don't expect Siakam level results but it is in within realm of suggestion / possibility.


Holmgren 10th, J Williams 20th. Very good for very young. How much improvement to hope for or expect?


Banchero 40th? I.e. average 3rd best guy on team, here. So far.

Rockets didn't want J Allen. Uh huh.

Doncic, lowest efg% in top 10 and 4th lowest in top 20.

Edwards, 14th here.


Clippers and Mavs completely divide up the worst 5 performers. Mavs add another in bottom 10. Give the Coaches that note. Lakers with 3 in bottom 20. Ensure performance... or you didn't. All former NBA players, fwiw.


Nuggets with 2 lightly in bottom 20. A concern. Especially with KCP.


Brunson, 33rd.

[Mike G]

KCP is a good example of why win-rates should be adjusted to the competition, as BPM does.
He's barely below zero in my 'proficiency' rating and plays lots of minutes. If he played those minutes at positive proficiency, he'd have >0 eWins.
In fact, I shouldn't even have this most-negative list.

[DSMok1]

KCP is a good example of why win-rates should be adjusted to the competition, as BPM does.
He's barely below zero in my 'proficiency' rating and plays lots of minutes. If he played those minutes at positive proficiency, he'd have >0 eWins.
In fact, I shouldn't even have this most-negative list.

I have KCP at around replacement level so far via BPM. Far from the worst in the playoffs.

There's a handful of players with very poor BPM due to bad shooting. Gafford, Exum, AJ Green, Hield, Cole Anthony. None have played very many minutes--all less than 30.

Top in BPM is some guy called Jokić.

[Mike G]

When a team is losing by more than about 16 ppg, they total negative Win Shares.
The Suns are currently one of those teams.

Code: Select all

. Phx Suns    min   e480   PER    WS/48    BPM    eWin    WS
Kevin Durant   80   1.20   18.2    .051    2.1    .20    .09
Bradley Beal   80    .52   12.2   -.013    0.5    .09   -.02
Devin Booker   79    .65   12.0   -.012   -1.9    .11   -.02
Jusuf Nurkić   58   1.04   13.5   -.012    -.7    .13   -.01
Eric Gordon    44    .35   10.4   -.024    0.9    .03   -.02
Royce O'Neale  43    .31    9.2    .031   -1.6    .03    .03
Grayson Allen  43   -.05    4.6   -.042   -5.5    .00   -.04
Drew Eubanks   26    .15    6.1   -.131   -5.0    .01   -.07
. totals      453    .62   11.9   -.008   -0.8    .58   -.07

Zero-wins level in RS is around 6 for PER and -5 for BPM.
eWins and WinShares are exactly equal for Royce O'Neal. For all others, WS is lower.

[Mike G]

While I realize It's Not a Thing, I am still surprised at the overall absence of Playoff Jamal Murray. He's had 3 sub-par games.

Code: Select all

G    TS%   ORb%  TRb%  Ast%   Stl%   TO%   Usg%   ORt  DRt   BPM
RS  .586   2.7   7.2   31.2   1.5   10.5   27.9   119  114   4.1

1   .458   2.5   8.3   34.3    .0     .0   27.2   121  115   5.8
2   .402    .0   4.4   21.7    .0    7.4   31.3    85  107  -5.4
3   .465   2.7   6.6   30.8    .0   14.5   29.0   101  112   0.1

The best players, when their shot isn't dropping, tend to pick up their game in other areas.
I don't see that happening here. Top line is regular-season totals.

Here's how these 3 games rank among the 59 he played in the RS:

Code: Select all

G  TS%   ORb%  TRb%  Ast%  Stl%  TO%   Usg%   ORt  DRt  BPM
1   50    28    23    20    50     3    39    33   29    24
2   53    50    41    50    50    24    17    54   11    55
3   49    27    30    29    50    46    27    48   22    40

30 is a median rank; 50 is among the worst.
Lakers' series ORtg is 110

[v-zero]

Would probably see me ostracised from NBA twitter if I said it there, but outside of Jokic I really don't think Denver has any big stand out players. Instead what it has a is a core cast of above average but not amazing players whose games have become perfectly adapted to being around the big man. I have Murray and MPJ as the next most impactful players on that Nuggets team, but the drop off from Jokic is huge.

[DSMok1]

Would probably see me ostracised from NBA twitter if I said it there, but outside of Jokic I really don't think Denver has any big stand out players. Instead what it has a is a core cast of above average but not amazing players whose games have become perfectly adapted to being around the big man. I have Murray and MPJ as the next most impactful players on that Nuggets team, but the drop off from Jokic is huge.

Yes, their starting four appears to be just about perfectly matched to maximize synergy between the various players and particularly Jokic's unique skill set.

A true greater than the sum of the parts five man lineup.

[Mike G]

Somewhere around here may be a post with a name like "The Jokic Effect" which details some 90% of his teammates have better shooting and are more productive while they are/were with Denver since 2018 or '19. Does not include Murray or Porter, since they miss the 'without Joker' column. But it's 90% likely they would not be as proficient elsewhere.

So it isn't necessarily "these guys" who are an unusually good fit. They are an upgrade over Morris, Harris, Barton et al.
Worst move now might be to bring in a co-superstar who isn't such a 'role player'.

[Mike G]

If the Nuggets' worst shooter hadn't hit an amazing game winner, the series might be tied 2-2.
Here are game-by-game eWins thus far. Some are amazingly consistent, others in-.

Code: Select all

. Nuggets       games:  1     2     3     4      T
Nikola Jokić       C   .26   .30   .23   .23   1.02
Michael Porter    SF   .11   .15   .10   .09    .45
Jamal Murray      PG   .14   .07   .10   .06    .37
Aaron Gordon      PF   .10   .06   .21  -.06    .31
Kentavious C-P    SG   .03  -.04  -.04   .06    .01

Christian Braun   SG  -.01   .04   .00  -.02    .01
Justin Holiday    SG   .00   .00  -.02   .01   -.01
Reggie Jackson    PG  -.01  -.02   .02  -.01   -.02
Peyton Watson     SF  -.01   .00   .00  -.02   -.03
. Den              T   .65   .55   .60   .34   2.14

Code: Select all

. Lakers        games:  1     2     3     4      T
Anthony Davis      C   .19   .23   .20   .27    .89
LeBron James      PF   .11   .24   .16   .17    .68
Austin Reaves     SG   .04   .00   .12   .10    .26
D'Angelo Russell  PG   .00   .08  -.04   .10    .14
Taurean Prince    PF   .04   .01   .00   .00    .05

Spencer Dinwiddie PG  -.01  -.01   .01  -.02   -.03
Rui Hachimura     PF  -.01  -.06  -.03   .04   -.06
Gabe Vincent      PG  -.02  -.02  -.01  -.02   -.07
. LAL              T   .35   .45   .40   .66   1.86

Rui was finally good in G4; Prince had a good G1 and no terrible ones.
Joker has had 40, 55, 38 and (gulp) 68% of team eWins. For the series it's 48%.
AD with 48% of Lakers' total eW. Davis + LeBron are 84% (from 67 in G4 to 104% in G2)

[Crow]

Denver bench is having awful shooting run. Peyton Watson for example is 5 of 16 overall and 2 for 9 from 3 so far.

If they fall short of tepeat title goal, this could be a main reason and Calvin Booth will catch some heat.

[Crow]

Nuggets with biggest minute lineup by almost 60%. It has been good but not great.

Starting lineups that have sucked the most so far, from worst down, are: Magic, Pelicans, Knicks, Mavs... There are some really terrible performing second and third most used by team lineups as well.

3 teams have not used a lineup over 30 minutes total: Clippers, Mavs and Suns.

Celtics bench unit (Holiday, Pritchard, Hauser, Tatum, Horford, no Brown or Porzingis or White) is the by far best performing over 30 minutes. 3 times as strong as the full starting unit.

Knicks with fewest lineups used at a still pretty high 18.

Bucks, Mavs and Thunder highest, at around 40.

[Crow]

9 of 10 players with most minutes per game have negative team +/- on the court. Desperation, over use, disappointment. Doncic is the only exception.

27 players scoring 20+pts / gm. Nuggets are only team with 3. 10 with 2. 4 with one. Pelicans with none.

Average of just under 4.5 per team (total) with 10+pt per game. 2 more per team over 5pts / gm. Rest of players (almost 5 more per team have played) may or may not contribute much overall, but their points are few.

[Mike G]

Team average age of players on the floor:

Code: Select all

age  young    age  old
23.2  OKC    31.0  Mil
24.3  Orl    30.6  LAC
25.6  Ind    30.3  Phx
25.8  Mia    29.7  Phl
26.0  Cle    29.3  LAL
26.3  Dal    28.8  Bos
26.6  NYK    
26.8  NOP
27.1  Min
27.2  Den
    
27.5  avg

NBA regular season avg age was 26.6
4 of the 5 oldest teams are losing or have lost in round 1; the Clipps are tied with a team 4 years younger.
So we may expect the avg age to get younger through round 2.
In only one series -- Bos/Mia -- is the older team likely to win. Because they are better.