Original APBR board questions revisited

[Crow]

https://web.archive.org/web/20130314110 ... /message/1
(by Dean Oliver)

I am going to revisit some of these original APBR post questions from 23 years ago.

I haven't checked wayback machine for original responses but might later.


"4. What additional statistics could be taken to improve individual
defensive evaluation? (I have numerous suggestions for later.) How do we
evaluate individual defense?"

Do any paid databases out there do a good job evaluating help defense in its various forms, apart from all other plays, or switch defense in particular?

With the talk of "advantages created", does anyone try to assess defensive disadvantages closed?

Anybody anywhere attempt to track passes (or into paint passes in particular) denied by defender comprehensively or even enough to identify a top 10 or 20, particularly in playoffs? I see BBallIndex has a passing lane defense rating but I don't know if it covers more than steals and deflections.


"5. What happened to the fast break? Did it disappear as a general
strategy (as opposed to a situational reaction) because it somehow is less
effective? Are there numbers to evaluate how efficient fast breaks are
through time?"

More research to do but here is a first cut using nba.com playoff data:

2016: Playoff leader transition 19pts, median under 15 pts. Efg% leader 75%, median 62%.

2020: Playoff leader transition 22pts, median under 18 pts. 5 over 20. Efg% leader 69%, median 58%.

2024: Playoff leader transition 22pts, median under 18 pts. 5 over 20. Efg% leader 71%, median 61%.

Points expanded then leveled off, efficiency jagged down then back up.

I'll have to find a different database to check before 2016.


"7. Can Twin Towers really work? Robinson-Duncan won a somewhat tainted
title. Other twin tower combos have really not had much success. Why?"

This topic should be re-visited. I haven't yet. "Tower" probably meant 7 footer before but should it stay that way or go to 6-11 or even 6-10 today? Other criteria?

"8. Theory: How do we translate college stats to the pros? How do we
translate high school stats to the pros? Is it possible?"

I know there are models that attempt to do it in general and on 3pt fg% in particular but has anyone ever shared details on exactly how done or offered concrete estimated formulas?

For BPM, my rough translation is college BPM minus 6-10 pts = estimated NBA BPM. Probably more deduction for perimeters.

"12. Game simulation. Can we simulate a variety of lineups? Can we test
the simulations? Can we simulate in-game strategies, such as a pick and
roll, give and go, playing a zone vs. man defense, matching up one player
on another, setting up a low post offense vs. a three-point offense?"

Is there any recent public work on NBA gamr simulations? More seems to be done at team level than lineup level.

Anyone with knowledge free and able to even vaguely comment on state of team research developing and using simulations?

[Crow]

2024: Regular season leader transition 19 pts, median 15.5 pts. PPS leader 2.4 pts, median 2.2 pts.

2020 Regular season leader transition 20pts, median 15 pts. PPS leader 2.35 pts, median 1.9 pts.

2016 Regular season leader transition 20pts, median 14.5 pts. PPS leader 2.35 pts, median 1.8 pts.

2012: Regular season leader transition 20pts, median 15 pts. PPS leader 2.4 pts, median 2.0 pts.

2008 Regular season leader transition 23 pts, median 14.5 pts.

According to teamrankings.com.

Leader points in transition falling, median creeping up slightly. Median efficiency rising recently. Related to renewed interest in offensive rebounding and /or the take foul call?

[Crow]

I will be reviewing the links provided here on NBA simulations

https://www.google.com/search?q=nba+bas ... o0qAIBsAIB

Better of the links:

https://www.sloansportsconference.com/r ... simulation

https://trevor-johnson.github.io/NBA_Simulation/#

https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3343031.3351050


Other

Play custom 2019 all-star game
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -star-team

Some interesting data on player characteristics of strong and weak teams and interactions between them
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... gGTsaJFh1i